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gently caress. Changing my vote to Bobson Dugnutt.
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May 19, 2019 17:50
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Agreed with bobson dognutt.
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May 19, 2019 17:55
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AweStriker posted:I'm on the Bobson Dugnutt train here 
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May 19, 2019 18:01
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Justice for Mike Truk you cowards but fine, switching to team Bobson Dugnutt
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May 19, 2019 18:07
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Swapping to the Bobson Bandwagon
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May 19, 2019 18:21
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Rather Watch Them posted:Excuse me, but Bobson Dugnutt?
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May 19, 2019 19:13
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I'm with Mo. 
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May 19, 2019 19:17
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Cooked Auto posted:I'm with Mo. I mean, sure, if we're playing to lose *remembers 2004 ALCS, sighs happily*
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May 19, 2019 19:27
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AweStriker posted:I'm on the Bobson Dugnutt train here
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May 19, 2019 21:07
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I concur, changed my vote to Bobson Dugnutt
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May 19, 2019 22:32
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We're gonna solve Mo problems.
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May 19, 2019 22:41
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I present to you all, a gift: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KOP4mNAX5R0N_dODE6j2gHTK2oTXCIrhAQ0dEniaYFw/edit#gid=0 I highly recommend it it's all the player names from the game whence dugnutt hails
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May 19, 2019 23:16
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GeneX posted:I present to you all, a gift: It's kind of amazing how some of these names sound like they could be actual baseball players if you change one or two letters... and then you have names like Ark Carreon and Geronimo Wenja that just sound like characters from a JRPG or something.
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May 19, 2019 23:30
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Minus Green posted:It's kind of amazing how some of these names sound like they could be actual baseball players if you change one or two letters... and then you have names like Ark Carreon and Geronimo Wenja that just sound like characters from a JRPG or something. There's all sorts of sports names in there. Like how guys like Telanne, Nogilny, Dorque and Reschyshyn are hockey players given the "one-letter-changed" treatment (Teemu Selanne, Alexander Mogilny, Ray Bourque and Curtis Leschyshyn, respectively). To be a fly on the wall when the system for the names was decided upon... Also, I haven't tallied anything yet, since there seems to be, like, a lot more enthusiasm for this vote than I expected, but it seems like Bobson Dugnutt and Mo are the two main choices. And that requires me to ask something - "Bobson Dugnutt" doesn't fit, so what would I put in? "Bobson", "Dugnutt" or some sort of combination thing? EDIT: Oh, wait. Dorque obviously isn't Bourque. There's two letters changed! So of course, there's also a "Lourque" in there. Fabulous.
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May 19, 2019 23:38
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Mo Dugnutt
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May 19, 2019 23:42
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BobDug
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May 19, 2019 23:43
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Y'all realize this is a goon made game, right? From a former regular in SAS?
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May 20, 2019 00:51
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Yep. He even had a SL team for a while there. Anyway gonna go for Bobson. It's waited decades for it's moment to shine.
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May 20, 2019 00:55
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Do I want to know why's Moose rolling with a 2000 year old brass knuckle?
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May 20, 2019 00:58
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Mzbundifund posted:Do I want to know why's Moose rolling with a 2000 year old brass knuckle? Because sports is hard core. Also Bobson, the son of Bob.
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May 20, 2019 02:33
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ManifunkDestiny posted:Y'all realize this is a goon made game, right? From a former regular in SAS? Hello! I'm not sure what the etiquette of a creator posting in an LP is so I'm gonna stay quiet and lurk/watch but I definitely appreciate seeing this. Also, everyone feel free to make fun of bad things in the game (like forgetting to strip out the RPG Maker inventory so Moose has brass knuckles) even though you know I'm reading. This is the first game I ever even tried to make so yeah, it has some roughness around the edges.
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May 20, 2019 21:01
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gyroball posted:Hello! My policy on creator posting is  .Also, it seems like Bobson has won our naming vote, so I'll work on the next update tomorrow.
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May 20, 2019 21:38
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gyroball posted:like forgetting to strip out the RPG Maker inventory so Moose has brass knuckles that the knuckles are a bug and not a feature is kinda disappointing but otherwise I stand by what I said earlier about being Into This Game so far
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May 20, 2019 21:57
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gyroball posted:Hello! I don't quite remember how I originally heard about this game. But it's fun, it's a good romp, well written, and you should be proud of it! Thanks for taking the time to make it and share it with the world. Also, I've never gotten to follow an LP that could also include a running Creator's Commentary too. You should definitely as the mood suits you.
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May 20, 2019 23:44
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Update II - Oh, Be Quiet. I'm Having Fun. Alright, the people have chosen, and they have chosen Bobson Dugnutt as the name for our closer. Of course, that doesn't fit, so we have to compromise. TheMcD's Baseball Stuff posted:
 ♪ BGM: Moose ♫ Anyway, let's get back to where we left off.  Are we really going to go over pitching 101 again? Yes. You need it. Right now, because your slider turned into a meatball; you don't have many pitches. In fact, you only have one pitch: Your fastball. What about the meatball? Maybe I can trick a hitter with it. Lure him into a false sense of security. Maybe that will work, if the hitter is a small child. A small child with Attention Deficit Disorder. The good news is that almost all small children have Attention Deficit Disorder these days. Watch out, baseball. Bobson may not be able to pitch like he used to, but he's going to dominate the league with his attempts at topical humor. Not even a chuckle? I don't chuckle. Anyway, my point is that you probably shouldn't be pitching to anyone just yet. Not until we teach you a new pitch. Then what are we doing here? Story-wise, this is really the only place for a tutorial section. What do you mean by "tutorial section"? Wait... That's not the most important question. What do you mean by "story-wise"? People only accept dull explanations of gameplay mechanics at the very beginning. It's kind of like how all the boring genealogy is stuffed into an early part of the Book of Genesis. If you're halfway through the Book of Judges and suddenly you have to read about the Jebusites, the Amorites, the Girgashites, the Hivites, the Arkites, the Sinites, and most of all the loving Hamathites... Well, you'd stop reading the Bible. I really don't think that the Book of Judges is particularly exciting as it is. That's because you're a philistine. Not a proper Philistine, of course, but a philistine of the colloquial definition. Not that you would know the difference, as vou have just demonstrated. I'm lost. Then we should get back to pitching. When you're pitching against a batter outside of a baseball game, you can't rely on your defense to bail you out. You are on your own. That means you need to strike out the hitter or lose. To do that, you will have to fool them. Every pitch has the chance of tricking the hitter into looking for that pitch on subsequent at-bats. Once a hitter is looking for a pitch, you have to throw a diametrically opposed pitch, and that's a sure strike. Die-a-metric? This isn't about that crazy number racket they use to measure poo poo in Canada, is it? The Metric system? No, but you should probably learn that, too. What I'm saying is that if a batter is expecting one pitch, if you throw a very different pitch you're assured a strike. Yeah, I knew that already. When the guy at the plate was looking fastball, I'd throw my slider. And when he was looking for the slider... You'd still throw the slider. Because until today, no one could hit it. ...yeah. All right, I'm going to pitch to Robertson, here, to show you how it's done. ♪ BGM: Transcend ♫ Alright, given that Bobson has gently caress-all for pitches right now, we're going to be going through our tutorial with Moose.  As we've previously seen, he has a four pitch arsenal. Now, since there aren't any real animations except a very basic pitch display, I'm just going to transcribe these battles in italics. So, let's start with the most basic thing and just throw some heat. Moose throws a fastball! Ball 1! The pitch was just off the outside corner and the batter takes it for a ball! Hrm. OK, I guess we're using Moose's signature next. Moose throws a knuckle-curve! Strike 1! The knucklecurve completely fools the batter!  Holy poo poo, coach, that's totally unfair! What's the point of throwing that pitch? Bobson isn't going to learn anything if you are just trying to make me look silly. Sorry, you're right. I just can't help myself...Alright, no knuckle-curve I guess. A changeup maybe? Moose throws a changeup! Ball 2! The changeup was in the dirt! The hitter is now looking for a changeup! What the hell, man? I thought you were supposed to be a control pitcher! But anyway, we have our hitter looking for a changeup, so let's throw him off with some heat again. Moose throws a fastball! Ball 3! The pitch was just off the outside corner and the batter takes it for a ball! Well, poo poo. I guess the diametrically opposed pitch to a changeup is a breaking pitch? Moose throws a slider! Ball 4! The hitter lays off the slider as it dives out of the strike zone! Moose issued the walk. The runner reached base. Moose is defeated!  I just failed the tutorial. Amazing. Well, before we go back into that... TheMcD's Baseball Stuff posted:OK, let's talk about pitching. If you don't know pitching, that was a bunch of weird words just now and you didn't understand poo poo. So let's go over that. Anyway, let's try the tutorial again.  We'll start the same way. Moose throws a fastball! Strike 1! The batter swung right through the heat! The hitter is now looking for a fastball! Now that he's looking fastball, we give him the changeup. Moose throws a changeup! Strike 2! The batter got out in front of that pitch and just missed the change-up. Now, a breaking pitch just to mix things up. Moose throws a slider! The batter fouls off the pitch as it runs in on his hands! There are still two strikes on the batter. Well, let's go back to the heat, I suppose. Moose throws a fastball! Strike 3! The batter swung right through the heat! Moose struck him out! Moose is victorious! So yeah, sometimes the game can just screw you if your pitcher suddenly can't get control. That's realistic, actually.  ♪ BGM: Moose ♫ I don't see how this is really helping. You have a ton of pitches and I have one. Oh, be quiet. I'm having fun.And we get to go through another pitch battle. We'll just skip past this one.  Well, I think there is only one choice here for us to take. What the gently caress is this? This is a choice menu. Sometimes you are going to have to make difficult choices about how to proceed. Aww... drat it, I don't want to have to make difficult choices. I can't even make up my mind at a buffet table. Pizza? Fried chicken? Meatloaf? 'Usually I end up piling it all on my plate because I'm afraid I might regret my pick once I get back to the table. Yeah we're going to need to talk with the trainer and the nutritionist about that. So, do you get how pitching works? I already did! Good. Well... There are a couple things. Sure. Ask away. What's up with the "Items" command on the pitching menu? Pitching won't solve all your problems. Remember early in the season when you had that boil the size of a quarter on your-- Shhh! Not so loud! I told you to keep that quiet! Anyway, you weren't going to pitch your way out of that problem. Sometimes you will be faced with enemies and obstacles that will require an item. If you don't have that item, throwing all the fastballs in the world won't get anything done. Where will I find these items? Well, that's up to you. Okay. One more question: When I go to the menu, it tells me how much money I have. Yeah, well, who knows... Maybe you'll have to buy something. That's not my question. I want to know why I don't have any money. I'm pretty sure I had $20 before the game. That's simple, Bobson. Fiat money - cash - has no actual value. It's just paper that, as a society, we have arbitrarily decided can be used as an intermediary to exchange in trade. Woah... Holy poo poo, you're right. Wait. What? No I'm not. That was a joke. No, you're totally right. The value of money is entirely an illusion. It's not just paper money. The money I have in the bank is nothing but a number. It's a concept, stored on some computer somewhere that doesn't mean anything. It is literally only as valuable as society agrees it is. And the worst part is the government can just print more of it. No, even more frightening... They can just make the numbers in their own bank account go up. Uh, slow down there, I was just-- Oh god, and when people start to figure out that money is objectively worthless, they will move their garbage currency for stable investments... Which will only serve to devalue the dollar more! Moose, this is awful! We have to do something! Calm down, Bobson, it was just a joke. Fiat currency is actually sound economic policy. But cash only has the value we give it! And we give it that value for no reason! That's true of all sorts of things. You listen to me because you have assigned me value as your "coach". I don't *really* have any more power over you than any other person. You come to work and get paid because of the arbitrary validity that you, the team, and society assign to your contract. There's no objective power in your contract, just the power we choose to give it. Oh... I guess you're right. If I start questioning the legitimacy of the power society assigns to things.. The rabbit hole never ends. That doesn't explain why I don't have my twenty dollars. Yeah, I borrowed that to grab some pizza for dinner. WHAT? You had me doubting the foundations of society because you borrowed money without telling me? The street vendor I like doesn't take credit card. Just tell me next time! Will do. Ready to go? Yeah... Where are we going? If you're going to teach me a new pitch, wouldn't it make the most sense to just stay right here? Yeah, that might work if we had the whole offseason, but we don't. No, we're going to have to take drastic measures if we want to have you ready for tomorrow. Uh, what? That doesn't make any sense. Crossword puzzles? I've never told anyone this before, but that's the secret to my knuckle-curve. I learned it from crossword puzzles. You've got to be kidding me again. 20 across: The clue was "part of a fist." Seven letters. I knew that the first letter was "K" because I'd already solved 1 down. That was four letters. Clue: "Top of wine". Obviously CORK. KNUCKLE intersected with 6 down on the last letter of each word, E. The clue for 6 down was "A reason to slow down." This wasn't a very good crossword puzzle. I saw the two words together, joined at a right angle. It was like a light went off in my head. Sort of like that Reeses commercial. You got your chocolate in my peanut butter! You got your peanut butter in my chocolate! How do you know that commercial? You're too young to know that commercial. I saw it in a Family Guy episode. Oh... Ugh. So I'll go back to my locker and grab my iPad. I know that there are all sorts of free crossword puzzles online, though if you have suggestions-- Electronic crosswords? Over my dead body. You're not making this easy. It's not supposed to be *easy*. That's the point. The only proper way to do a crossword puzzle is on paper, with an ink pen. Well, fine. Happen to have any blank crossword puzzles lying around? Of course not! I don't just leave them unfinished. Or even worse, unstarted. So, we're screwed? It's the middle of the night. We'll have to wait until morning to buy fresh crossword puzzles. I don't want to waste that time. Don't worry. I know a place. Great. The last time you suggested a bar, I ended up choking back cigar smoke and listening to jazz for, like, an hour. It's an all-night book store, down in the Hub. An all-night book store, eh? Now I'm interested. It's not that kind of all-night book store. It's a secret enclave of East Coast intellectuals, that also happens to sell books and collections of crossword puzzles. An "intellectual" all-night book store, eh? Well, I do like chicks with glasses. IT'S NOT THAT KIND OF ALL-NIGHT BOOK STORE. Now that I think about it, they probably won't even let you in. All right, if it really is our only hope, I will go to a regular bookstore. But just this time. Well, when you're ready we'll head out.And so, we have our destination. Next time, we'll try to get Bobson into a high-class book store.
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May 22, 2019 20:35
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I'm really digging the dialogue for this game so far.
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May 22, 2019 21:08
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Yeah, it's surprisingly good.
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May 22, 2019 21:13
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Like I said, this game is very much focused on writing. The graphics look kinda crap, the mapping is really bland and ugly, and the "core" gameplay, as it were, is basically modified praying to the RNG. But it doesn't matter because the writing is so good and the situations so interesting you just want to see what comes next, and before you know it, that's carried you through the entire game and you had a great time.
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May 22, 2019 21:21
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Yeah, it was kinda wild coming to the realization that all of that was in the actual game 
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May 22, 2019 22:26
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That pizza better be worth it for twenty bucks.
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May 23, 2019 00:56
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TheMcD posted:Like I said, this game is very much focused on writing. The graphics look kinda crap, the mapping is really bland and ugly, and the "core" gameplay, as it were, is basically modified praying to the RNG. But it doesn't matter because the writing is so good and the situations so interesting you just want to see what comes next, and before you know it, that's carried you through the entire game and you had a great time. Speaking of statistical noise, I actually worked on a group project about baseball pitches in the course of my math degree. Want me to summarize it or would that be too esoteric?
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May 23, 2019 01:04
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NGDBSS posted:Baseball has a lot of statistical noise? Well I never! Of course the banter between Moose and Bobson here (or Moose breaking the fourth wall) more than makes up for it. 
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May 23, 2019 01:22
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Questioning the legitimacy of power in the first five minutes of the game. Woof, fast mover here.
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May 23, 2019 01:25
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A real fastball you could even say. Okay I've still got a lot to learn about baseball puns.
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May 23, 2019 01:28
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Where does someone go to download this? I googled it and couldn't find anything, and I'm interested in playing it with some friends.
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May 23, 2019 01:54
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https://redbirdmenace.itch.io/the-closer
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May 23, 2019 02:00
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Hella, thank you! I really love these kinds of LPs that show-off games that most people wouldn't otherwise run across. Gonna try to beat this soon so I can check back on the thread while it runs!
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May 23, 2019 02:06
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If this game doesn't end with our Hero learning The Cutter I'll be very disappointed.
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May 23, 2019 03:31
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McTimmy posted:That pizza better be worth it for twenty bucks. It's obviously going to depend on where you live, but around here you'd be hard pressed to pay much less than that for a large pizza anywhere but a national chain. And those...well. You get what you pay for.
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May 23, 2019 04:49
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 05:36 |
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The intended final course of my university's math program is effectively an undergraduate research project. Invariably the professor has a general concept in mind and presents three or so specific topics based on that. When I took it, the concept was machine learning, and my team went for predicting the outcomes of at-bats based on pitching data. Unfortunately, like I said, baseball is statistically noisy. Nonetheless we were able to get two complex models working well enough. One involved Bayesian analysis through an existing software package. This derived ultimately from Bayes' Theorem, which gives an unknown conditional probability in relation to other known ones (conditional or not). So P(A given B) = P(B given A) * P (A) / P(B). The conditional P(A given B) is known as a posterior probability, while the unconditional P(A) is a prior probability. The point of Bayesian inference, then, is to update relevant probabilities based on new information showing up. Each iteration inputs an old posterior probability as a new prior probability. Thus in our case we used the results of ball/strike/etc. pitching data to estimate the results of any given pitch being that result, given a pitcher and a batter. The other model involved a frequentist approach involving kernel density estimation. Frequentism vs. Bayesianism is concerned with how probability is interpreted; it's very  but if you want to look at it further you can check out what probability really "means" here. Anyway, kernel density estimation or KDE is a smoothing technique for estimating a continuous probability density function (pdf) based on a finite amount of data. Each data point is represented by a kernel function rather than a literal point, and the overall estimated pdf is the average of those functions. The data we fed into this came from PITCHf/x, a system used from 2006 to 2016 to record pitch trajectories in surprising detail. (PITCHf/x has since been replaced by TrackMan.) Crucially this told us the outcome of each pitch but also its position, so we were able to construct pdfs of where each pitcher might throw and what each batter might do if a ball were pitched to a given location over the plate. Combining these for any given pitcher/batter combination could again tell us estimated probabilities of any given result for them.After determining those, we tossed all that stuff into a relatively simple Markov chain. A Markov chain is a stochastic model with a finite number of states, where the probability of what happens next only depends on the current position ("memorylessness"). In the case of an at-bat we have twelve transitory states (0-2 strikes and 0-3 balls) and three end states (out, walk, hit). Solving for the asymptotic behavior (ie, finding out whether the batter is out/is walked/gets a hit) is fairly easy, just a bunch of matrix multiplication. Neither example was perfect, but at least they were decent. That said, we also found out that doing all that data crunching was basically superfluous. There's another model out there which is loads simpler called log5, invented in 1981 by Bill James as a shorthand for estimating conditional win rates (eg, a given pitcher against a given batter) given unconditional win rates (eg, a given pitcher and a given batter each on their own). While log5 was made for baseball because it is a sport that prides itself on reams of data, there are equivalent models in other fields for paired comparisons like the Elo rating system in chess or the Rasch model in psychometry. And it turned out log5 was about as good as predicting at-bats as the Bayesian and KDE models; log5 tended towards underfitting, while the Bayesian and KDE models tended towards overfitting. Obviously we're still going to have outliers - baseball is statistically noisy - but if you just need a snap judgement you can do all the math on your mobile phone. Given pA and pb as the unconditional win rates of A and B, the conditional win rate of A while opposing B is pA, B = (pA - pA * pB) / (pA + pB - 2 * pA * pB). NGDBSS fucked around with this message at 02:08 on May 24, 2019 |
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May 23, 2019 06:44
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