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50k feels a bit tight-fisted for a very risky betrayal like, at least make the offer 'you will never have to work again'-type money
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Nov 12, 2019 21:29
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zegermans posted:meanwhile in Chile the revolution will be disco as gently caress
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Nov 13, 2019 18:15
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iirc the protests were significant, but not massive from what i saw you can't actually do a coup entirely without some popular mandate, and especially in the bigger cities the right does have real popular support
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Nov 14, 2019 17:57
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Atrocious Joe posted:The 7 people at the Grayzone are better at finding out stuff about Bolivia than the entire New York Times. this picture is just... it's so perfect
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Nov 14, 2019 18:47
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hey turns out my bedroom is luxurious cool
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Nov 16, 2019 00:51
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uninterrupted posted:he literally brought in mesa, the former president who murdered ~60 people so he wouldn’t have to privatize the petroleum industry, into the government ~unelected~ to work an international court case against chile. he left the military untouched, didn’t arm the populace, and generally refused to implement the only known system of leftism in south america. so to be clear you're opposed to bourgeois democracy per se, right
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Nov 24, 2019 15:57
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Atrocious Joe posted:I think a big issue is that leaders of NGOs and "leftist" political parties in the global North mostly don't share the same ideology as the movements in the global South struggling for liberation. They're captured by or members of the capitalist class that profits off imperialism. you do realise that a lot of national liberation movements in the global south have *interesting* views on gender roles, sexuality etc. third-worldism is not the answer - the venezuelan regime just flat-out made a bunch of mistakes in managing its economy, for instance. this situation in bolivia looks a lot like the MAS top leadership has been decapitated and their lieutenants are panicking. this is understandable, but MAS has now surrendered all their political leverage and the forthcoming elections will, i expect, see their vote share mysteriously plummet. i do hope i'm wrong, of course, but i very much doubt it.
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Nov 26, 2019 03:25
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yes, exactly. their ability to do that is now significantly impaired because they've legitimised the coup regime. if they kept the pressure up there's a real possibility that they could've pushed the regime over. that is no longer possible now - just mobilising will be much harder, and the networks they used this time around are going to be hit hard if the regime knows what they're doing i do respect that it's a really lovely position to be in to have to gamble on the possibility of outright civil war, but MAS probably just consigned bolivia to at least a decade of right-wing psycho rule
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Nov 26, 2019 03:53
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tbh just knocking it off with all the loving meddling would be a massive step forwards
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Nov 26, 2019 17:40
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probably not, at least while AMLO is in charge also lol the institutions of neoliberalism will not turn to the left just because yankeeland does, that's entirely misunderstanding how they work in pretty basic ways if you want a left-wing IMF you'd have to make it something else than an international monetary fund
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Nov 28, 2019 01:58
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Uranium Phoenix posted:Money designated for poor people is actually making it to poor people, making him popular, meaning a bunch of people are going to vote for him because he made their lives better. yeah i was screaming at that jesus loving christ, if the money skirts the usual channels and actually reaches its target, that seems to imply that he's got a point about bureaucratic corruption doesn't it!!!!!
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Nov 30, 2019 13:28
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one can make a solid case that the necessity of rebuilding their countries after the most devestating war in history drove them, though. certainly this was a very big part of the norwegian labour party's turn away from socialism
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Nov 30, 2019 14:35
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idgi
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Nov 30, 2019 14:47
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lol norway still doesn't have a minimum wage. sectoral bargaining is directly hurt by reducing the incentive to unionise, such as via a legal minimum wage
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Nov 30, 2019 22:03
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sanders was about the only candidate to call it a coup i think so eh still the best
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Feb 10, 2020 00:24
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i will lol heartily if MAS somehow retakes power after this mess
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Feb 17, 2020 11:59
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are we completely certain that guaido isn't a venezuelan intelligence asset
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May 7, 2020 14:51
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like this is kim philby level poo poo
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May 7, 2020 14:52
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Echo Chamber posted:The original fuckery a lot of these people will be african immigrants and sans-papiers, not 100% that this argument lands perfectly
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Jun 5, 2020 01:58
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zegermans posted:40% was the outright win cutoff right? 15+ point win iirc
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Jul 7, 2020 21:08
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MAS is not going to get a 15+ point win in the first round if the government has to literally shoot people trying to cast their votes
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Jul 7, 2020 21:09
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has the department of justice got its own foreign intelligence operation? what the devil is going on
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Jul 11, 2020 17:12
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i once talked to a guy who'd been a part of the delegation that the norwegian socialist left party sent to help them set up the basic apparatus of the revolutionary state apparently they'd looked around for socialist parties with government experience and just called them up
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Aug 2, 2020 12:38
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this is another one of those times where trump makes a pretty ordinary mistake and just completely refuses to admit error lol it's tim apple all over again
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Sep 14, 2020 14:37
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arce getting 50% in the big cities is *nuts*, he may well be looking at the strongest mandate in any moderately legitimate general election ever if he similarly overperforms in the countryside
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Oct 19, 2020 10:49
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depending on context that's not a very unreasonable thing to say. lots of people think that hard-nosed 'realism' is the only rational alternative, and pointing out that it is often counterproductive for most people in the centre is worthwhile
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Oct 19, 2020 13:43
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the MAS seem to know what they're doing for the most part so i expect a bunch of people will be replaced at all levels and probably they'll start looking elsewhere for someone to train their officers
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Oct 19, 2020 14:49
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but also yeah there's no way they're showing their hand before they're formally back in the big seat. i expect a lot of people are going to be making off with substantial amounts of loot, unfortunately
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Oct 19, 2020 14:51
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yeah the psuv aren't great guys and there's been real, serious gently caress-ups on their watch. the thing is, though, that they are still the legitimate government of the country and their iron grip has been sadly legitimised by US action in the region
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Dec 10, 2020 16:06
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mother fucker
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Apr 30, 2021 13:03
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is there any place one can follow the tally/see exit polls/whatever?
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Jun 6, 2021 20:28
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Bo Berry posted:Hoping Castillo pulls out the win by a decisive enough margin that it’s called soon but all the articles I glanced at made it sound like a close race, for whatever that’s worth. Still down about Arauz’s loss. ecuador got hosed by factionalism within the indigenous movement. the bourgeois faction was stronger and refused to endorse a correaist due to bad blood and an insufficiently sincere display of contrition, wihich shouldn't be that much of an issue with castillo who managed to get the other major leftie candidate to fall in line without too much of an issue. the weird shining path massacre might be a problem, though. my gut says castillo should have this - his strongest constituency is one which is traditionally fairly difficult to poll and even so he's been consistently in the lead, indicating that he really has had a narrow lead over fujimori (it's gone as of the most recent polls, but that sort of narrowing is fairly common and often goes away - people who've gone castillo->undecided are liable to go back to the candidate when the race is this tight). however, it's going to come down to the wire and it certainly wouldn't shock me to see a castillo victory contested with considerable zeal. a nail-biter in any event V. Illych L. has issued a correction as of 00:21 on Jun 7, 2021 |
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Jun 7, 2021 00:17
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ToxicAcne posted:Is the rural urban divide universal in Latin America? It's interesting that rural areas in Peru and Bolivia lean left and Urban areas right. it is this way in almost every non-rich area. the NATO countries are hosed up because we've got ridiculously huge academic/middle classes who get to redefine the project of the left around them, but generally an organised periphery movement is going to be much more left-wing than an organised centre movement, since they're acting in opposition to the main concentrations of wealth etc. this is what mao realised and used to conquer china. in latin america, a ton of the people living in the periphery are also indigenous and generally have long, hard political educations which foster some extremely serious people and leaders who risk painful, torturous death for their organisations. these people will often be moderately corrupt, but they also don't tend to seriously sell out - morales, mujica and lula all come from this sort of background and apparently so does castillo. it's imo an encouraging sign that people from these movements are regaining prominence
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Jun 7, 2021 17:30
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also this election is so goddamned tense i've never seen anything like it
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Jun 7, 2021 17:33
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ToxicAcne posted:Ah I see. But what about the urban industrial proletariat? proletarisation is connected to urbanisation, but it tends to be dispersed around middle-sized cities - sometimes you'll get purely industrial towns where the actual proletariat are the outright majority, but more generally you'll see proletarians be a substantial minority in the large cities and then scattered along areas of natural convenience for industry (rivers, mines etc) i'm not 100% on the historical development or universality of these trends, but in my country and a couple of other places where i've seriously looked into proletarisation this is how it's tended to go
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Jun 7, 2021 17:37
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i like the pencil it's a nice symbol for a party idk this is going down to the wire and the expat vote could still tip it, but i'm guessing that castillo is going to win with like 50.2%
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Jun 7, 2021 17:55
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nah le pen is almost certainly going to lose again, but in the second round which will establish the far right as the official opposition what we're seeing in france is a total realignment and it sucks
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Jun 7, 2021 22:38
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if i've understood it correctly he needs a margin of 0.5 points, which he hasn't yet got but which a reasonable trend analysis basically guarantees him
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Jun 9, 2021 09:11
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it seems like this sort of sore loser nonsense would only serve to weaken the candidate in the case of a re-election, surely?
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Jul 1, 2021 20:52
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they got burned pretty badly in bolivia, and the pressure has seen castillo veer pretty heavily towards the centre. my guess as to why the yanks are staying out of it is that they see it as causing unnecessary risk to important institutions for negligible gain
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Jul 1, 2021 21:57
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