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Does Kawhi stay?
This poll is closed.
He stay 95 32.20%
He leave 99 33.56%
ask Uncle Dennis 57 19.32%
burn down Toronto if he doesn't 44 14.92%
Total: 295 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
Someone explain to me how a draft can be rated the day after the draft. I'm not joking, I really want to know the process.

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dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
Look I know these guys have to write about something, but this strikes me as almost impossibly cynical. Maybe I'm just naive.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

MourningView posted:

you rate how you think they did based on how good you thought the players were in college/Europe/high school/whatever and how you think they project to the pros, how is this confusing, you nerd

Because there's no way the writer has spent even 1% of the time scouting these players as the teams choosing them have, it seems to me to be an incredibly egotistical exercise to rate a choice from a place of relatively total ignorance. That's why I'm confused by all this, I can't imagine any one writer, much less a bunch of them, assuming or pretending to know more than several hundred scouts.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
in actual basketball news, Tacko Fall signed an exhibit 10 with the celtics. this is my bet for undrafted played most likely to be on an nba roster in 3 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5zjRWdpnCI

dokmo fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Jun 21, 2019

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Dejan Bimble posted:

Do you have any thoughts about Culver, Alexander-Walker, or Morant

I don't spend much time on slam dunks, mostly i study heavily contested prayers from beyond the halfcourt line.

in august when work is slow and the days are long, i'll put together some lowlight videos for these guys.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

WhyteRyce posted:

ok now defend Vlade's picks for me I need something to say other than :shrug: when people ask me

all i can say is it's not clear to me that Vlade is doing the picking. their front office situation is messed up. i have no idea how major decisions get made there, much less who to blame the bad ones on.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

MourningView posted:

Well no poo poo but if this is your standard then I assume you're just confused by the concept of sportswriting generally? Should people just not have opinions if they don't work for a front office or play?

normally the writer writes something after something has happened. the team lost, and here's the reasons why according to the writer, even though the team studied their opponents much more than the writer could have. i accept that the writer will sometimes be right in these cases, but even if he isn't, the team lost and therefore something went wrong, so there's something to write about.

that is not the case here. nothing has happened. the writer appears to be saying, here are the teams who made decisions that agree with my uninformed take. this kind of thing happens in sports writing, like immediately after a trade, but the day after draft ratings seem almost as ritualistic as pointless to me. the writer already wrote his mock draft, writing about how some teams ignored it is really weird. there has to be a better angle to write something about the draft.

anyway i only asked because i assumed there was actually a reason i'm missing why these things were written all the time, but it appears not.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
Speaking of which I'm surprised someone didn't take a chance on Terence Davis and his near Kawhi level hand size

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
There's no way tacko is slower than boban, the rest is probably true

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
the reason I think tacko has a chance is that the league started dropping the bigs back in pick-and-roll coverage far more often this season and tacko has a chance of being a factor in that kind of coverage. I mean if brook lopez can do it, any slow wingspanny big can.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Dexo posted:

Not saying all of them do or even most of them, but there are dudes who watch and rewatch and analyze every single game of these players and base their opinions and thoughts off of that study. In the way that a scout would.

Sure but there are 30 teams and each of them has five or ten scouts. What is the likelihood that one guy no matter how good he is going to see something that 200 other guys missed?

Not to mention the information the scouts have that is not available to the public, like psych reports and medical and work habits and so on

dokmo fucked around with this message at 03:13 on Jun 22, 2019

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Dexo posted:

The thing is they usually aren't seeing something that 200 other guys missed they may have differering opinions on what they see and how the players project. Like how "actual" scouts can have wildly differering opinions on a prospect.

These people are not trying to see something the real scouts missed, they are looking at the information available to them(play on the court), physical profile and combine numbers and doing their best to consolidate it all into their opinion of a player.

I don't disagree with anything you said. I'm simply pointing out that a bunch of opinions are more likely to converge on the truth than any single opinion. Not always, but most of the time. The average of a bunch of guesses is going to be more right than any single person's guess. I certainly did not mean to impugn the basketball knowledge of any of the writers who write these things, just wondering about their motives for doing so.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

While this is almost certainly incompetence, I will point out the possibility that the agent purposefully kept Rui away from some teams he didn't want his client going to.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Hashtag Banterzone posted:

Unless Rui's agent has beef with the Wiz this seems odd, he should get plenty of minutes and touches this year, especially with Wall out.

Agents don't make a lot of sense on this issue. They really don't want their clients playing on bad teams, despite the fact that they will be buried on the bench or in the g league if drafted by a good team.

A related issue is that agents will frequently not let their clients work out for or talk to teams not drafting in the top 5/10/whatever range because they have promised their clients that that's where they'll be drafted, even though 80 different prospects have also been promised by their agents that they'll be drafted that high. In this case it makes sense, since the agent probably thinks he'll be fired if his client isn't drafted that high so he has no incentive to be more realistic about the player's prospects in the draft.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
It's an interesting research question for some ambitious nerd. Like, pop has the rep of getting the most out of the talent on his team, but it's possible to think of counterexamples (Dedmon, George Hill, Scola) so I wonder how much his record is actualy better than someone else.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
I desperately want to see if some team attempts to turn Frank Kaminsky into Brook Lopez. Because when I made this suggestion everyone laughed at me. But I want to have the last laugh.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Somewhat Heroic posted:

Whenever I see the Rockets and think about them trying to sign on someone new I just can't figure out how they thought that signing Chris Paul to a massive contract like that at the age he was. The man will be thirty six in his final year. How did anyone think that having a player plagued with past injuries would have the ability to play competitively into his 16th year of the NBA? The man's agent clearly deserves the bulk of that contract.

Some teams roll the dice on the best chance to win a championship in a given season. They came pretty close that season.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Dexo posted:

Hey people who watch waaaay too much basketball tell me about this dude

Can't shoot, can't finish, can pass a little, maybe he can defend a little?

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Bip Roberts posted:

Quick question about the 230 win share moving stat. Are there definitionally 1230 (15*82) win shares generated a year?

no, it's scaled so that it comes out to ~around 1230 wins, but that's not in the definition. Over the last five seasons the average has been about 1255 wins.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

zelah posted:

Pulling this from pages back to remind y’all that there’s not a single Blazer jersey in this highlight reel.

The only remarkable thing that I remember Russ doing in Portland was fracturing his zygomatic arch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUs9rG7XEDs

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
no thoughtful discussion of PNRs can be complete without mentioning James Harden's next level two point oh evolution, the pickless pick and roll.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
MCW has made 147 threes

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
I would be interested in hearing some thoughts of Westbrooks possible role in Houston's offense. It's easy to think of ways it could go wrong, what I'm curious about is how it could go right, like whether Harden or Russ or both or the team's whole offense changes. I was very wrong about how Bosh and Wade integrated their roles into Lebron's, and how the Heat changed their offense to suit the three of them, so now I don't say my thoughts about these kinds of things with much certainty anymore. But I'm wondering if anyone has any ideas of what the best case scenario of Westbrook's role would look like next to Harden.

dokmo fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Jul 17, 2019

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

uggy posted:

There’s a lot larger sample of him not shooting threes well, like he’s historically bad at it for his volume. One or two above average months at the start of the year won’t change that

Probably, but you never know. Coaches are incredibly short term thinkers, and players are even shorter term. It takes a lot of guts to leave a guy open who started the season hitting 40% on threes even if they know he's a bad shooter.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Dejan Bimble posted:

If Dokmo or anyone with access to synergy is reading this, is it true that Westbrook didn't set a single screen for another player last year? I heard that on a radio show

Come on that is nuts. Even if the player is never asked to set a screen, he will set a few by accident, just by being in the wrong place or something. In any case, screen setting metrics aren't 100% accurate yet, particularly off ball screens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2d_xriSczw

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
speaking of dunks, this is the edit i made of my favorites

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ2ExjPtctk

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

anakha posted:

Splitter over Nene.

the hell are you talking about.

The canada team should be

Tristan Thompson
Rick Fox
Cory Joseph
Jamal Murray
Steve Nash

team russia is very good

Timofey Mozgov
Andrei Kirilenko
Alexey Shved
Becky Hammon
Sergei Belov

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
Parsons was the worst because they gave it to him after his microfracture surgery.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

hifi posted:

When did the league actually know that microfracture surgery was bullshit?

John Hollinger, who worked for the Grizzlies when the Parsons contract was signed, wrote an article about microfracture in 2006

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Metapod posted:

RUSS ON THE ROCKETS IS NOT RIGHT MAKE IT STOP

I have not stopped thinking about this since they announced the trade.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

iamsosmrt posted:

Depends on how injured Lin actually still is. The only real question is if he'll get a chance to even prove he can still play.

Of course he will. Every non-NBA team in the world would sign him to an NBA-friendly contract and almost every NBA team would scout at least one of his games in person and all of his games on video.

I wonder if people think there's a large pool of players who have NBA talent but just haven't been given a chance.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

iamsosmrt posted:

I don't doubt he was capable of all the above, but did he do it regularly? The Harden and Hakeem mentions are significant because they do/did their moves all the time despite defenders knowing they're coming.

I would argue that Harden's stepback is effective because he is such a threat to drive and draw fouls and defenders can't guard both the step back and the drive. He shoots the stepback against defenders (mostly bigs on switches) who sell out on the drive. Ie defenders don't know what's coming.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
Comparing a couple of sportsbook over unders

code:
EASTERN CONF        CAESARS   PINNACLE
Milwaukee Bucks       57.0      57.5
Philadelphia 76ers    54.5      54.5
Boston Celtics        49.5      48.5
Indiana Pacers        48.5      46.5
Brooklyn Nets         47.0      45.5
Toronto Raptors       45.0      46.5
Miami Heat            43.5      43.5
Orlando Magic         40.5      41.5
Detroit Pistons       37.5      37.5
Atlanta Hawks         36.0      33.5
Chicago Bulls         30.5      32.5
Washington Wizards    28.5      28.5
New York Knicks       27.0      26.5
Cleveland Cavaliers   24.0      24.5
Charlotte Hornets     24.0      23.5
            
WESTERN CONF         CAESARS   PINNACLE
LA Clippers            55.5      54.5
Utah Jazz              52.5      54.5
Houston Rockets        52.0      53.5
Denver Nuggets         52.0      52.5
LA Lakers              51.5      51.5
Golden State Warriors  47.0      47.5
Portland Trailblazers  47.5      46.5
San Antonio Spurs      43.5      46.5
Dallas Mavericks       41.0      40.5
New Orleans Pelicans   39.0      39.5
Sacramento Kings       37.0      37.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 35.0      35.5
Oklahoma City Thunder  28.0      31.5
Phoenix Suns           27.0      28.5
Memphis Grizzlies      25.5      27.5

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
https://mobile.twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1156590609186152449

Hmmm.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

iamsosmrt posted:

But didn't Hakeem actually have a positive effect on the people's he's worked with?

Maybe, it's hard to know for sure. The bigger issue is that working on your post game with Hakeem in 2019 is like working on your three pointer with Maravich in 1972. It's just not a super efficient play.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Metapod posted:

Do people in league offices try to sway their players to not train with certain former players? If so who

I've never heard of that, but there are definitely certain quack shot doctors teams try to dissuade their players from going to.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
People itt are always seriously discounting Shaq's combination of size, strength, and athleticism in the early years.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkrPBAhVFn0

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

Kibner posted:

Ben Falk decided to change his business model and make all upcoming articles longer, more in-depth, but less often. He also is making them free (he makes money by charging a fee to his stats database). His first article with this new model: The Wide-Ranging Raptors

Yeah he had a great point:

quote:

No, the box-and-one didn’t win the Raptors the title, but it is a great example of what did: their strategic flexibility. And I don’t mean this just from a coaching standpoint. For all of the attention the box-and-one got, not enough attention was given to the fact that Toronto’s players were actually able to execute a scheme they had not played all season, maybe not even in their careers, on the biggest of stages.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

For those who don't know, Dean Oliver is the OG hoops analyst who has probably worked for half the teams in the league and keeps getting work in a business that does not reward she.

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dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSSportsNet/status/1158133460491522048

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