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The Ninth Layer
Jun 20, 2007

Join us on SA's boxing discord: https://discord.gg/FUmR3An



Weight classes in boxing exist for a reason. Just an extra ten pounds on an otherwise evenly matched opponent can be the difference between brushing off a punch and going to sleep. Few boxers make the jump to a higher weight class successfully; even fewer make the jump without losing something in the process. For good reason the exceptions are often considered among the best pound-for-pound, as they have proven definitively that they can succeed across a variety of weight classes. It is no small accomplishment to defeat champions in more than one weight class, especially at the higher weight divisions which are separated by even greater weight disparities and are full of competitors who can really punch.

Why do fighters take the risk? Sometimes there is simply no good competition left at a boxer’s preferred weight class, and bigger names (in more ways than one) can only be found by moving up the ladder. Andre Ward was a fantastic super middleweight (168 lb), but once he had cleared out the division of all reasonable contenders there was nowhere for him to go but up. Ward made the jump to light heavyweight (175 lb), got himself acclimated to the weight class, and went for the number one guy at the time, Sergey Kovalev, who he would go on to defeat in two high-level matches. Other times an opportunity in a higher weight class is just too good to pass up, to the point where the risk involved isn’t even a consideration. Floyd Mayweather spent years drawing up good fighters from lightweight (135 lb) and super welterweight (140 lb) with his ability to pay opponents more money than they would likely make in years. Finally, some fighters do it for the legacy, for the ability to claim that they have defeated opponents in several weight classes. In the course of his career Manny Pacquiao won world titles or championships in eight weight classes, spanning from flyweight (112 lb) all the way to super welterweight (154 lb).

All three of these reasons motivate Saul “Canelo” Alvarez’ jump up two weight classes tonight, from middleweight (160 lb) to light heavyweight (175 lb). Having defeated Gennadiy Golovkin and Danny Jacobs, Canelo feels there are no real competitors left for him at middleweight, and feels he must find bigger challenges in the higher divisions. His opponent, Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev, represents a real name for him to defeat, which translates into eyeballs for his parent network DAZN and dollars for his cut of the fight earnings. If the Mexican champ defeats Kovalev it will add a fourth weight class to his collection of world titles, and will stand as one of his career’s signature wins. Alvarez has never shied away from taking on great risks to reap even greater rewards. But perhaps this time around he’s bitten off more than he can chew.




Saturday, Nov 2nd
DAZN - Prelims 6:30pm ET, main card 9:00pm ET, main event 11:00pm ET or later
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev - WBO light heavyweight (175 lb) world title
Ryan Garcia vs Romero Duro - lightweight (135 lb)
Seniesa Estrada vs Marlen Esparza - flyweight (112 lb)
Blair Cobbs vs Carlos Ortiz - welterweight (147 lb)
Evan Holyfield vs Nick Winstead - junior middleweight (154 lb)
Bakhram Murtazaliev vs Jorge Fortea - junior middleweight (154 lb)
Tristan Kalkreuth vs Twon Smith - cruiserweight (200 lb)
Meiirim Nursultanov vs Cristian Olivas - middleweight (160 lb)




Having begun his pro boxing career at the exceptionally early age of 15, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KO) has spent the majority of his boxing matches on television in his home country of Mexico, and in recent years has become the standard-bearer of the country’s strong boxing tradition, succeeding the likes of Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera and Juan Manuel Marquez. At twenty-nine years old Alvarez already boasts a record of accomplishments that could rival any of those three, with a litany of wins against some of the best fighters of the last decade, and only a single loss to mar his record (and that loss came against Mayweather, perhaps the best boxer of the last twenty years). Over the last five years Canelo has transitioned into the middleweight (160 lb) division, establishing himself slowly but surely and eventually taking on pound-for-pound star Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin. Across twenty-four rounds and two very close matches, Canelo just barely edged out Golovkin, coming away with a draw and a win which could have easily been two losses (or two wins). For now Canelo has decided to close the book on that rivalry instead of seeking out a rubber match, but outside of Golovkin there is not much for the boxing superstar to do at middleweight, especially after his win against Daniel Jacobs earlier in the year.



Enter Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KO), former world champion at light heavyweight (175 lb) and currently considered either the best or second-best active fighter at the weight, depending on who you ask. Kovalev gained fame and prominence as a knockout artist, ending most of his fights within the distance, and was considered by many fans to be among the top ten pound-for-pound. Indeed, Kovalev fought with an aura of invincibility similar to Golovkin two weight classes below him. It took a great fighter like Andre Ward to end the Russian boxer’s win streak, but with it Ward also took Kovalev’s aura of invincibility. In their first fight Ward found the edge against Kovalev in a controversial fight that many felt the Russian deserved to win, and their immediate rematch also ended controversially when Kovalev was stopped on what appeared to be a low blow. But many observers felt that Kovalev had lost something in that second bout, and they would soon be vindicated when Kovalev went on to fight Eleider Alvarez, and was knocked out in a fight in which he was supposed to be the heavy favorite. Kovalev has since avenged his loss to Alvarez, but he has never quite looked like the fighter he was before those Ward fights.



Even though Kovalev has many physical advantages over Canelo, this match is thought to be somewhat of an attack of opportunity by the younger, smaller challenger. While Alvarez has looked better and better in every one of his recent fights, possibly as a result of the high level of his recent competition, Kovalev has arguably looked worse with every showing. A recent match between Kovalev and Anthony Yarde, a relatively unknown journeyman, saw Kovalev taken into deep waters from Yarde’s body work, and it is arguable that had Yarde a little more experience he may have been able to stop Kovalev. Instead, the Krusher found his own stoppage, which was enough to preserve his crack at Canelo. Popular thought around this matchup is that Canelo and his team have seen something in Kovalev which they believe they can exploit for a very high-profile, if risky, legacy-boosting win.

The calculus for Canelo is as follows: Kovalev is a hard hitter, has a great jab, and will outrange Canelo from the opening bell. But Canelo has fought hard hitters before, and has shown he is capable of fighting successful at midrange as well as on the inside. On the other hand, Kovalev has shown against Ward and others that he is vulnerable to the body, reacting badly when hit there and with a defense that also seemingly leaves him sexposed downstairs. Canelo is a brutal body attacker, so if he can get inside on Kovalev and land some damage it could very well be an early night for him. The major risk for Canelo is that he cannot get to Kovalev, cannot get past his jab, and cannot get the bigger man in this bout to respect him. It is certainly what Kovalev, who has been dismissive about Alvarez belonging in his division, is counting on.



Unfortunately for Kovalev a knockout against Canelo will likely be his only path to victory in Las Vegas, which is practically a hometown for the Mexican superstar. Alvarez showed both times against Golovkin that he is more than capable of holding his own in a boxing match, and the judges in both fights showed that as long as he holds his own he will get the benefit of the doubt on the scorecards. Sergey Kovalev knows how to trap and finish opponents, but truth be told he isn’t as effective at cutting off the ring as Golovkin, and Alvarez proved very hard for Golovkin to trap. Kovalev therefore may find himself with just a puncher’s chance in the bout, hoping for a lucky punch that could turn the dynamic of the fight around or end it outright. But twelve rounds is a long time for him to find such a punch, and twelve rounds is a long time for Canelo to avoid getting hit, especially if it turns out he cannot get Kovalev to respect his power in turn. This will be a very tense fight for as long as it lasts, especially for fans of Canelo hoping their fighter doesn’t get hurt.

My Prediction: I believe the fight will start with both men showing respect to each other, neither guy wanting to commit especially. Canelo will soon feel the range disadvantage but may feel uncomfortable moving in on Kovalev, especially against the bigger man’s jab. Once Canelo figures out his opponent’s timing, perhaps around the third round or so, he will begin to assert himself, trying to hold the center of the ring and possibly moving up on Kovalev. He may also just try to get in and clinch, giving him the opportunity to rough Kovalev up to the body while on the inside. Kovalev may start looking for big head shots, but I think Canelo will be more elusive than the Krusher expects, and in better condition than the Russian fighter can keep up with. As the fight enters its second half, I think we will see Kovalev begin to wilt as Alvarez keeps up the pace and pressure, and as Canelo’s body work accumulates and begins to pay off. To be honest, I don’t think Canelo will need the help of the judges in this one, and in the later rounds I see him as being too much for the declining Kovalev to hang with. Saul Alvarez by round 9 stoppage.

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thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

gently caress it, war kovalev

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
That Holyfield stop was kind of quick

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
Pretty bad cut on one of the ladies in this fight that I'm not paying a lot of attention to

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007



LobsterMobster posted:

Pretty bad cut on one of the ladies in this fight that I'm not paying a lot of attention to

https://twitter.com/metaljohnradio/status/1190823907038814209?s=19

goddd drat.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"

Worst part was, after the ref called it between the 9th and 10th, and Esparza lost a technical decision, she was interviewed while holding a towel to her head for like 5 minutes

Jascum
Sep 29, 2019

by Nyc_Tattoo
Ryan Garcia is the future. He should fight often, he’s got it all!

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

dazn is so loving stupid. how has they not started this fight?

Wise Learned Man
Apr 22, 2008

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Lipstick Apathy
Boxing needs an enema. There is no justifiable reason to poo poo around for an hour interviewing everybody in the dang arena.

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

i'm probably going to bed after the diaz masvidal fight and then going to laugh when i read both fighters got injured after being cold because they had to wait an hour and thirtyminutes before they got to fight

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

let’s see how shot kovalev is

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

how loving long is this anthem

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

hey its punchmans

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

gently caress...THREE anthems???

The Little Kielbasa
Mar 29, 2001

and another thing: im not mad. please dont put in the newspaper that i got mad.
Two hours of anthems.

Please go on to sing the super racist verse of the US one, my man.

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

god the american anthem is bad enough at the best of times let alone when it’s not needed and it’s following 2 long as gently caress ones

Johnny Bravo
Jan 19, 2011
i predict this boxing fight match is going to end via doctor stoppage in the 3rd round

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

still impressed that days inn managed to run a boxing channel

Hollandia
Jul 27, 2007

rattus rattus


Grimey Drawer
Middelweight??

Dangersim
Sep 4, 2011

:qq:He expended too much energy and got tired:qq:

I'M NOT SURPRISED MOTHERFUCKERS
Has canelo fought at 168? or is he jumping straight from 160?

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

jesus get to the loving fight already

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

it’s gonna be a 6am start at this rate

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

Dangersim posted:

Has canelo fought at 168? or is he jumping straight from 160?

he’s skipped 168

Jump King
Aug 10, 2011

don trella julie lederman and dave morettie kovalev hosed

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

kov needs a knockout for a draw

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

ok so 1 punch = 1 point right?

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

is there a more boxing name than buddy mcgurk

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

canelo looks so much faster

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

uhhh kovalev's pitter patter shots look like they are having way more of an effect than they should

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

canelo’s shots always sound so heavy. maybe that explains the judging

Dangersim
Sep 4, 2011

:qq:He expended too much energy and got tired:qq:

I'M NOT SURPRISED MOTHERFUCKERS
Wow these announcers are on canelos dick

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

Dangersim posted:

Wow these announcers are on canelos dick

they're sponsoring canelo so

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

what the gently caress is a swing round lol

Johnny Bravo
Jan 19, 2011

Dangersim posted:

Wow these announcers are on canelos dick

also bill simmons, the innovative sports theorist that he is

CarlCX
Dec 14, 2003

Zyla posted:

they're sponsoring canelo so

Didn't Canelo's giant insane contract have a stock stake in dazn or something

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

CarlCX posted:

Didn't Canelo's giant insane contract have a stock stake in dazn or something

probably

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

saul coming on now

Dangersim
Sep 4, 2011

:qq:He expended too much energy and got tired:qq:

I'M NOT SURPRISED MOTHERFUCKERS
Lol at this nevermind the man behind the curtain. poo poo

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

is kovalev even trying to win

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Dangersim
Sep 4, 2011

:qq:He expended too much energy and got tired:qq:

I'M NOT SURPRISED MOTHERFUCKERS

Zyla posted:

is kovalev even trying to win

I think he is

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