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Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Smiling Knight posted:

So, then, why do the creators of the game think that our Normal High School Girl protagonist has a 15.5% percent chance of winning, far higher than, for example, Keiji, who may not be a cop but who is a smart, physically fit adult? Obviously, the answer is that Sara is not a Normal High School Girl. My guess based on Keiji's infodump about Hades is that she is some sort of special Secret Crime Syndicate Heiress, but the game seems too grounded to pull a "skill at death games is genetic" kinda of trick.

I don't think it's necessarily genetic, but yeah, this is my assumption too, especially after that scene with her father and Kai.

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Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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HydroSphere posted:


I have a device for healing mental wounds.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YbNElsfYaE#t=30s

I can't be the only one who immediately thought of this.

Anyhow, Talk to Q-Taro because I think it's likely we missed the 50 token mark for Nao, per the explanation of NeoRonTheNeuron.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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To literally play the Devil's advocate for a bit,

Absolutely everything Sou has done is pretty consistent with him legitimately not trusting Sara, specifically, and the others, in general. (More importantly, no one has given him a reason to) He's also, notably, the guy in the game's explanation/introduction about thinking majority rule is a horrible system so.... mnf.

Writing in this game is good and tricky enough that I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's got some kind of insider info about Sara's past (that Sara herself doesn't have) and assumes she's also bad/evil/in on the game. Honestly, reviewing the order of events, just him unlocking the laptop might be enough. Being so happy about getting rid of Kai, for instance, makes a hell of a lot of sense when it's through the filter of "regardless of anything else, Sou knows Kai was involved with the game."

Sou actually thinks Sara is a horrible monster, which we know isn't true, but if you approach from that angle, she looks a hell of a lot worse to him than he does right now, to us, the players.

If you also assume the 4 Sou votes were Kai, Nao, Sara, and Reko, you have Sara's vote we know was emotionally driven (because we made it that way), Kai who didn't want to die, Nao who literally bashed Suo's head in, and the sketchiest person here (that several people in thread suggested might currently be a doll)

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Magissima posted:

It seems strange that Sou would've only read Kai's sent emails and not the ones he was replying to. Normally I'd write it off as a plot contrivance (and honestly it probably is) but so far this game has had better writing than that.

The e-mails show that Sara's dad clearly knows something about whatever's going on, which, by proxy, incriminates Sara. Yes, it's an assumption and the game is trying to tell you not to do that, but it's also a pretty understandable assumption. Even knowing that the game "turned on" Kai, and assuming they "turned on" Sara, that'd still make those two incredibly sketchy from Suo's point of view. The whole exchanges don't do poo poo to exonerate Sara.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Back in highschool I could definitely shinny all the way down something like that by myself, no rope needed. (Not sure I'd want to bet my life on it, but I might try to save some poor kid.) Not to be a perv, but they definitely have like, enough clothes between the three of them to make a rope all the way down if they're willing to strip. Hell, you could probably do it fairly modestly with just the jackets and apron. So long as you're falling only a little way, you should still be able to avoid the spikes.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Gin, you dumb little poo poo, hold your stupid stuffed animal in front of the targeting laser.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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I am aware of why Gin can't put the stupid stuffed animal in front of the laser. I just find it funny that Reko gets a special sprite for this scene, but Gin doesn't.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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We also don't know that exceeding the weight will work. What if the number changes from "left" to "over".

Two of the girls might equal one Q-Taro, for example.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Sou might also find pushing the robot/doll/whatever to be gross, given his actual response to her crying about it was "this feels wrong---she's even crying like a real person would"

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Not only did we make an ethically correct decision, but we inspired Q-Taro to make an ethically correct decision, which he otherwise wouldn't.

And all we lost was a person without forgiveness in their heart. Probably the best outcome, really.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Q-taro didn't necessarily know what was happening up on the platform. If you pushed the doll down, maybe he pushes the button anyhow, and suddenly you need more weight/pushed the doll for no reason and look like a murderer.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Both of your choices wind up in a meaningless, unrelated death. Cool. Coolcoolcool.

This is a stumble in a game with otherwise really solid writing. Although, to be extremely charitable, the point of the whole situation is "sociopaths torture innocent people in a variety of arbitrary ways, both psychologically and physically". Expecting a fair situation from a cabal of Saw types is probably asking a bit much.

EDIT
As far as actual resolutions, I like not-push better. "Q-Taro mans up and does the right thing" is better than "Alice feels loved for a few seconds" as far as lasting positive consequences.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Tenebrais posted:

When it comes to the percentages as survival chances, the fact that they add up to 100% is probably a point against it - particularly, Nao is not on the cards, so is in the group that is implicitly 0%. But Mishima is at 3%, meaning they have concocted some scenarios where he outlives her - but everything we've seen has him throwing himself in harm's way to protect her. He's managed to die for her twice! There's no way he'd have a higher chance of survival than her.

Unless it does have to do with the AIs, as above, anyway.

Nao wasn't expected. So she's not in their data.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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I can't unsee the Crabstache now. I'm glad Gin lived.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Ignatius M. Meen posted:

Wouldn't it make more sense for her to end up with the Sage role? Give her the Sacrifice role and her bloc could be convinced to vote for her so that at least one of them gets to go home, but if she's the Sage it goes like last time with Kai where she's the safe vote to die. At least if you're going at this like Sou I presume.
I figure it's going to be Sacrifice traded to Sage. Then she knows who the Sage and Keymaster are and can SUSPECT who the Sacrifice is, and also knows that if she reveals any of this, she's likely to die. It feels like the most possible drama.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Lord_Magmar posted:

If it's set-up like the later revolver game that Sara went through, the trick is indeed probably shooting at something else to work out which is loaded with blanks.

Firing a blank into your own skull will almost certainly kill you anyhow.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Keep in mind, Sara is a known hallucination haver.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Tenebrais posted:

Frankly I'd be surprised if Sara's teeth parted even once through that entire exchange.

She probably has like, an adorable snaggletooth that others find cute in a "small flaws add to beauty" sense, but Sou sees as straight up fangs. Because he's legitimately terrified of her.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Don't discount Gin because he didn't have coins. We never caught Gin, and we never got to Reko/Rio. He could have taken Reko's coins.

It also makes little sense for Sou to trade away Sacrifice after seeing the guy he replaced, and it also makes no sense to give Sacrifice to Sara after she starts looking suspicious.

Edit
Since the Sacrifice WINS if they get votes. If Sou already was one, he would want people to vote him out. He can't know that Sara was a Keymaster unless he previously already traded with Keiji, and we are not aware of any other trades, so he didn't.

Veryslightlymad fucked around with this message at 16:29 on May 2, 2020

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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But only one trade was made, so whoever traded with Sara was the Sacrifice. SO the only way they could know this is if:
1)The Sage is someone else (Kanna?) and told them
or
2)Keiji told them

And then they trusted that person and wanted the keymaster card from Sara.

No one made the trade to become the Keymaster, whoever made the trade did it to ditch the sacrifice. Ditching the sacrifice to someone who is now likely to accumulate a lot of votes seems dumb. Sou acted really suspicious here, but him making the trade only makes sense if 1)he somehow has knowledge about the keymaster---a stretch or 2)he figured people wouldn't vote for Sara despite all the incriminating poo poo and this way he can get rid of her anyhow. I see this as somewhat more likely, but still a little... strange way of doing it.

I still think it's much more likely Gin or Nao made the trade. Nao is more likely because Gin would have had to rob a corpse to do it, but... there's nothing saying he couldn't. These two also didn't see the infodump about Sara, so might see her as a reasonable person to stick in this role.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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When voting for someone is ultimately murder, and not voting for a sacrifice is also ultimately murder, literally pooling all your resources to make sure one person, in particular, is the sacrifice and then voting out another person is several degrees closer to actually just murdering the two of them yourself than either of the "chance" outcomes.

From an impartial game theory standpoint without any ethical considerations, I do applaud your analysis, though

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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That and the murder. You also have to get six people to agree, "We absolutely want to murder these two specific people". Which is a much larger ask than an anonymous vote that might not have the person you voted for die.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Kanna might have knocked out Sara. We know where everyone else was.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Kanna's reasoning is the flimsiest here, and isn't in track with how Kanna has acted the rest of the game.

HYPOTHESIS: Kanna is not the Sage, but was the Sage. At the very beginning, when Keiji and then Sara each had Keymaster, Kanna was the Sage. The second trade that happened was neither Keiji nor Sara. (Assuming we believe Keiji)

Kanna is acting as though Sara was the Keymaster, meaning the second trade was someone traded with Kanna and took her Sage. Kanna still believes none of the other trades were with Sara.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Kanna was the original Sage and is now either a commoner or possibly a sacrifice. Alice is the current Sage after taking it from Kanna, Sou is the Keymaster.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Looks like my various speculation was off, but, on the other hand.....

It's easiest to assume Q-Taro is lying here, which... why would he do that?

Nao suggested that the safest person to be the sacrifice or to leave out of votes would be one with very little tokens. Is this not implying that you could trade mid game?1 What if Q-Taro has the sacrifice now and is covering it up so he can ditch it at the last second? It's wasting a bunch of time in the main game so we don't figure out what's really going on, but he could be waiting to dump it on Suo (or anyone, but I assume while the details aren't correct, he has real beef with Suo)

Alternatively, if you can trade cards at the last second, a Sage might hold off on telling anyone anything if the Keymaster is one of the final four. That way, if the Keymaster gets actual votes, they can trade with them safely, and not kill everyone, including themselves.

That no one left out simply called Sage at this point, like, instantly, seems to imply one of the four up there is Sage, or maybe Q-Taro for the reasoning I just said, but I'd put him at the lowest odds of the five.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

I think following both my line of reasoning and the line of reasoning the game is giving us might be a red herring, though. What I want to know is Why Q-taro doesn't think it made sense that there were two trades while he was out. Why does Q-taro's mental math being wrong scare him so much?

EDIT:
1Nao also had one of the lowest token totals. It's possible she's the sage and terrified that people will kill her over it like they did when Kai had it.

Veryslightlymad fucked around with this message at 22:16 on May 23, 2020

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Tylana posted:

We can be pretty sure (but not certain) that it was Keiji's trade that gave Sara the Keymaster.

But not that it was his card he gave her. He could have traded her anyone else's and just ran with whatever her reaction was.

Oh, that's an interesting line of reasoning. If you can trade for others, and Keiji was the Sage initially, he could have traded the Keymaster safely to Sara, without giving her another commoner card.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Actually, we know what Alice and Nao spent tokens on, and can safely rule Alice out of any trades, and probably Nao, since the only way she'd be able to afford it is by robbing Reko's corpse. Which could have also been done by Kanna or Gin.

Keiji could have made a trade
Q-Taro might have been able to make several trades
Sou might have been able to make several trades
Kanna, like Nao, probably couldn't make a trade without looting a body----and I'm still not ruling that out, either making a trade herself, or giving those tokens to Suo. (EDIT: This is wrong. I keep actively conflating Kanna with Nao.)

I'm also not ruling out Kanna and Suo working together up to this point---just because Suo knows what knocked out Q-taro, doesn't mean he was actually the one who did it, even if he confessed. Honestly, especially because he confessed. Kanna could have done it and made a trade from Q-Taro's tablet. This is notably the trade Q-Taro didn't know about.

But even that's meaningless, because even if you could trade using someone else's tablet, you'd have to specifically have tokens that weren't theirs so, say, Nao could have zapped Q-Taro and traded using his tablet, since she could then use her own tokens to trade. They wouldn't have been Q-taro's.

MarquiseMindfang posted:

Sara still has Q-Taro's original tablet, I'm pretty sure. She picked it up when she found him stunned, and never had a chance to give it back. Unless Gashu removed it when they were taken to their pre-Game rooms, she still has it. Q-Taro was given a replacement, per Gashu, so I guess he didn't take the original. You're right, time was tight, he might never have checked after that.

This could be a huge dick move even if he did check it. Sara and Q-Taro might know each other's roles, but not their own.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
gently caress trying to figure this out. The point of the game is death games are inherently unfair.

Veryslightlymad fucked around with this message at 22:52 on May 23, 2020

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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I really need to know if trades are allowed during the main game.

Suo can actually win here if trades are allowed and he's allied with both girls. They can actually guarantee at least Keiji dies by trading first Q-taro's sage to one of the trio, (for a sacrifice) and then Keiji's keymaster to a different one of the three. Everyone would know it's safe to vote for one of the three of them, but have no way of knowing which one. So they would have to vote for Keiji.

If Q-Taro saved himself by trading the sacrifice to the only person he's certain can't trade back---Gin---we'd actually get the theoretical situation where the "closest ally" and "younger boy" both die.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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What if trade five was Gashu taking the sacrifice away, and that's the infraction Miley was talking about?

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Tenebrais posted:

There were nine votes, meaning the Sacrifice's double-vote was in play.

I didn't say he took it out of play, but I definitely worded it badly. I mean, what if no player made the trade?

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Four things bother me:


That's still suspicious to me. I guess there's a pretty big loophole if the Sage can't claim this (since you could determine who the sage was and safely kick them out), but it does strike me as out of place.

Also:

Why did the second exchange occur? And why did they switch to Q-Taro, who would be the most likely to be able to switch back? (Unless that was their actual logic--- "I didn't want the guilt of killing someone, so I moved the sacrifice to Q-Taro to make him do it.")

Also:

If Kanna is aware that Sara had the sacrifice, then her going out of her way to grab it involves her knowing that Q-Taro doesn't have the sacrifice. Which means either: 1)Sou told her or 2)She's the one who peeped Q-Taro's tablet. Either way implies that she's betrayed Sou.

Finally, and most importantly:

Who had the Keymaster, originally, and why aren't they speaking up?

If it were one of the safe four, they could verify Keiji's story. If it were one of the other three, they'd know you could trade other people's cards----if they saw the supposed Keiji/Q-Taro trade 4, why would anyone take Sara's Sacrifice? If they saw Q-Taro before Keiji's trade, they'd know that Q-Taro was the Keymaster, and they'd take that. If they saw it afterward, they'd see that Keiji was the Keymaster, using Q-Taro's sage, and take that.


There's an alliance here we are not seeing, either another new one, or one that already existed before, and I'm not convinced we know the reality of trade 4 yet.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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MarquiseMindfang posted:

Dammit now I kind of want to drag Shin across the finish line out of sheer spite.

gently caress your numbers!

This game isn't finished yet, but I've been operating under the assumption that this is the "good" ending.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Kanna.

Kanna will blame herself if Suo dies. Suo will blame US if Kanna dies.

I can see Suo living if things continue. I don't think Kanna will.

(For real, though, show off Nao. "Thanks for letting me win, everyone else!")

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Voting for Keiji and killing both is some serious pure evil poo poo. I can't decide if I am glad the game doesn't let you or vaguely disappointed. It'd be fun to see the characters rally together to destroy Sara.

There is no good to be found here. The others all voted first and made Sara have to murder someone, and also made her destroy the other one. Nao might actually be the best answer, honestly. The other votes aren't going to be fixated on the same way. It's the only thing that doesn't doom one (both) of the people you're voting for to a fate they didn't choose.

Y'know, it just dooms Keiji, Gin, Q-taro and Alice.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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SPECULATION:

Suo has such a poor shot at winning because he's actually a good guy that always does this or something like it at some point during the simulations, and all y'all trashing on him for the entire game, are gonna feel bad. Meanwhile, Sara is the most cut-throat competitor.

Part three's gonna be a trip either way. This feels substantially more dynamic of a choice than the Alice/Reko one, and also gives you much more agency, which is a huge improvement.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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Suo's response here lends some backbone to my theory that Suo/Shin is an abuse victim.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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I also like how it shows in a completely different, non-adversarial circumstance, the entire cast just kind of shrugs and says "Welp. Let's all work together to get out of this mess"

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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You know, one of the weirder symptoms of Lung Cancer actually is what's known as fingernail clubbing---Kai might have been telling the truth. (Or maybe Mishima has tobacco stains)

I like how both of the bonding events say "You had a fun time with [x]" but display a picture of one of the characters looking absolutely mortified.

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Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

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.......Aauuuugh. Oh, poo poo. Who was Sara talking to at the end of the introductions????? :gonk:

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