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Who is the #1 Overall Pick
Anthony Edwards
Cole Anthony
James Wiseman
LaMelo Ball
Other
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Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land






While a bit of a exaggeration, the 2020 NBA Draft is lacking in star power compared to previous years. There are no Zions or Doncics available for the Knicks to ruin. Instead, there are a glut of 4 heavily flawed freshman battling it out for the top picks in some order. Have some actual analysis from not me


Sam Vecenie posted:

Right now, I would say there are four legitimate candidates to be taken No. 1 overall. Scouts certainly arenít ruling anything out at this stage in regard to someone flying up from farther down the board, but these are the four names most consistently mentioned. None of the four is in an ideal situation for success. Honestly, the Race For No. 1 has morphed into a crawl.

Two of the candidates are currently out of commission. Memphis center James Wiseman is suspended into the 2020 calendar year following an NCAA investigation into Penny Hardaway providing Wisemanís family with benefits to support a move from Nashville to Memphis a few years ago. Illawarra Hawks guard LaMelo Ball suffered a bruised foot in a practice last week and will miss approximately four weeks in Australia.

Ball creates an issue for NBA teams. Most high-level decision-makers have not yet been out to Australia to see him. Now, because the NBL season only runs until Feb. 14 and Illawarra is not going to make the playoffs, there will be a mad rush to see Ball in one of the likely six games heíll be ready to play in from mid-January to the end of the season. That means, as our own John Hollinger outlined last week, high-end decision-makers ⁠ó particularly on teams with potential lottery picks ⁠ó will need to leave the country for three to four days in mid-January to see him play, assuming he returns.

Thatís just not a great return on investment for them ⁠ó especially at that time of the year, given that the trade deadline is early this year, on Feb. 7, and those people are also responsible for making decisions with players already rostered around the league. And of course, all of this is highly dependent on if Ball decides to suit up after he gets healthy. It wouldnít be the worst decision in the world for him to just call it a day after having helped himself thus far in the NBL.

The other two prospects in the mix are Cole Anthony and the aforementioned Anthony Edwards. The problem with evaluating them is that the roster situations around them are not ideal. The Georgia Bulldogs are extremely young and donít really shoot the ball all that well from distance. Theyíre 6-2, but have yet to beat a top-90 team in the country, according to KenPom.com. Unfortunately, Edwards just might not get a chance to play exceedingly high-level games late in the year, unless the Bulldogs take a leap.

Anthony is in a similar situation at North Carolina, but it might be worse offensively. The Tar Heels are shooting a robust 28.4 percent from 3, and only attempting them on 30 percent of their possessions. Take away Anthonyís 22-of-62 mark (35.5 percent) and the players around him are shooting 24.2 percent from 3. And because Roy Williams likes to play with two bigs on the floor (especially when Armando Bacot is healthy), there is just absolutely zero space for Anthony to attack in any regard.

Thatís why he often looks like a perimeter player, and why he ends up having to jack up some shots that arenít exactly ideal in regard to selection. Because of that situation, itís basically impossible to evaluate him at North Carolina with any semblance of an idea of what it will look like at the NBA level. The geometry of the court is just so drastically and obscenely different.

I currently have them ranked Edwards, then Anthony, then Wiseman, then Ball. But this has significant room for movement if any one of these four can ever get some runway for success.

* James Wiseman has since left Memphis because of the suspension to focus on draft prep


So uh, not great. RJ Hampton might be the #5 guy, who is toiling away in the basketball paradise of New Zealand. For all your big board and lottery sim needs, http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft is the place to go.

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Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007

my name is john carter



let's get some important questions out of the way - who is the prototypical Jim Boylen Player of this year's draft?

Katana_Warrior
Dec 25, 2009



anyone under 6'3 or over 6'11 shouldn't be picked #1unless they're literally KAT or Shaq or have a really cool name

put the ball kid and the point guard together and you have a 6'5 prospect named LaMelo Anthony, that's #1 material

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010



Aye Doc posted:

let's get some important questions out of the way - who is the prototypical Jim Boylen Player of this year's draft?

Imagine Boylen dealing with Lavar Ball

Aye Doc
Jul 19, 2007

my name is john carter



El Gallinero Gros posted:

Imagine Boylen dealing with Lavar Ball

*nodding sagely* i see, so this is the evil Jim Boylen was put on our planet to defeat

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


Katana_Warrior posted:

anyone under 6'3 or over 6'11 shouldn't be picked #1unless they're literally KAT or Shaq or have a really cool name

put the ball kid and the point guard together and you have a 6'5 prospect named LaMelo Anthony, that's #1 material

Unfortunately this draft has like maybe two good wings.

James Wiseman is fine but unless you think he's going to be Rudy Gobert on defense taking him first is really bad.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


wiseman leaving early is probably the best thing he couldíve done for his stock

anthony and edwards are both defensible #1 picks; anthony is gonna look way better in the pros than in college much like john wall and edwards is surrounded by fuckin garbage so he has to do way too much right now

anthony edwards feels like a more traditional #1 overall but cole anthony definitely fits in that do it all off the dribble shoot in transition type pg thatís very in right now; it really depends on what kind of team you have and the pace you want to run your offense at and how many set plays you want to run

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.


https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/...7074158597?s=19

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


excel seems like a weird choice; other than herro and bagley there arenít a ton of rookies or really young guys on their client list

i figure your big announcement should be what coaches youíre working with as opposed to who your repa are

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


With a top of a rookie draft class this liquid, agents will probably make a really big deal.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends


Plaster Town Cop

If Cassius Winston was 2 inches taller and a year younger he'd be the number one pick in the draft rather than the 34th or wherever he'll end up.

I believe in him more strongly than you guys believe in tyus jones

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


obi toppin is really good but also like the worldís oldest sophomore (heíll be 22 on draft night)

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014



Hes also has the #1 name in the draft, but mirroring other aspects of this draft it's a very weak name class. The only other names in the conversation are very low-level prospects who might not even declare for the draft like Tres Tinkle, Jay Scrubb, and David Duke

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


Dejan Bimble posted:

If Cassius Winston was 2 inches taller and a year younger he'd be the number one pick in the draft rather than the 34th or wherever he'll end up.

I believe in him more strongly than you guys believe in tyus jones

I think he'll go in the first. It's less size than that he's kinda slow and can't jump, I think but the draft is bad enough that he can move way up.

Similarly I think Toppin should be like top ten. He's older and close to maxed out but at least he's probably a pretty good NBA player who neatly fits an archetype.

If Anthony or Edwards don't start playing better I'm throwing my hands up and just putting Okongwu 1. It's also kinda hard to think of a good reason for why they should be above LaMelo at the moment.

MourningView fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Jan 7, 2020

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


honestly yeah i can get behind okongwu as number one, really good offensive rebounder and blocks the gently caress out of everything

canít really shoot and doesnít really have any faceup skills but honestly as a low usage garbageman/high upside interior defender i really like him

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001



Which 4/5 are the Kings going to pick in the 8-12 range?

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


MourningView posted:

I think he'll go in the first. It's less size than that he's kinda slow and can't jump, I think but the draft is bad enough that he can move way up.

Similarly I think Toppin should be like top ten. He's older and close to maxed out but at least he's probably a pretty good NBA player who neatly fits an archetype.

A lot of times those kinds of guys don't go top-10 because the bad teams don't really want a "Good but low upside", even if the AAV is higher. Kendrick Nunn is kind of a good example of that. A rebuilding team doesn't really want to give minutes and money to a guy who is 24 and probably pretty close to his peak even if he's pretty good. You can usually find a veteran guy who can do that for you for about the same kind of money as a top-10 pick commands.

Not saying Nunn wasn't a good pick but its a reason why those types of guys go late, it's not always because of missed scouting.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


He's not very comparable to Nunn and there aren't that many actual high upside guys in this draft. Also "teams don't do this" doesn't automatically mean that it's something bad, teams make mistakes in the draft all the time.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005


I call it the Madden syndrome where everyone wants their rookies to be as young as possible with as much upside as possible because everyone assumes time = development.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


in basketball itís usually a pretty good indicator that theyíre going to keep taking leaps in development if they do them earlier

if it takes you four years to develop into a rookie-level contributor (i.e. 20 mpg at a replacement level) then you just might not have the potential to make it

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


Doltos posted:

I call it the Madden syndrome where everyone wants their rookies to be as young as possible with as much upside as possible because everyone assumes time = development.

With a top pick it makes more sense to do that. A #8 pick is a 3 year guarantee at ~4.5million a year. There are veteran players you can get for about that much money. So if see a guy that is probably going to top out at, like, Avery Bradley.....just sign Avery Bradley, or Trey Lyles, Richaun Holmes, Jake Layman, or one of a bunch of okay-ish guys that can be had for about that money. You'd way rather take the mystery box because with the cap space you can probably buy those kinds of guys with less risk anyway, and if your picking top-10 you probably should have cap space. Rookies still need minutes too, and you can only develop so many players at a time.

Since the salaries are slotted, you don't always pick in the order of who you think will have a good career. It's way better to swing the bat and fail. Once you get teams where the rookie exception actually matters (they don't have room for okayish vets) and they aren't developing a bunch of guys suddenly those high floor guys make more sense, but that comes in the late first or 2nd round.

I'm not comparing Nunn to Winston but that's why guys like that fall further than where they are on the pure "talent level" graph.


Edit: Another way to put it: Guys like Nunn and Kuzma were good picks, but rebuilding teams still shouldn't go after that type of player.

Lockback fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Jan 7, 2020

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012



Can we not use nunn as the comparison his drop wasn't because of age

Lockback
Sep 2, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


Metapod posted:

Can we not use nunn as the comparison his drop wasn't because of age

I mean, he's a 24 year old rookie who's playing really well partly because he's 24. Some people (not as much here as commentators) are talking about him like he's this great diamond found in the rough, but reality is that his ceiling is probably not going to be that high and (aside from the other stuff) most teams are better off taking risks than drafting him.

Like, how he got to that state doesn't really matter. Every year there are a bunch of guys that are older, get drafted late but despite playing well wouldn't really have helped a bottom-10 team anyway.

And lol, like domestic abuse charges would really impact true blue-chip prospects. Lots of guys are given chances in the NBA despite that. I know it affected Nunn but he wasn't even top-50 of his high school class and I don't think he was every projected as a Lottery guy. He was in his 3rd year at Illinois when he was arrested. He was never a top-end prospect.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


You are talking in broad generalities for some reason and I am talking about the actual draft class that is the subject of the thread. No one even mentioned Nunn until you suddenly decided to spend like five paragraph talking about why he didn't get drafted out of nowhere.

Anyway another thing a bottom ten team probably shouldn't want to spend top ten money on is another bad basketball player. Or maybe the Suns are secretly geniuses idk

MourningView fucked around with this message at 03:07 on Jan 8, 2020

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends


Plaster Town Cop

MourningView posted:

I think he'll go in the first. It's less size than that he's kinda slow and can't jump, I think but the draft is bad enough that he can move way up.

Similarly I think Toppin should be like top ten. He's older and close to maxed out but at least he's probably a pretty good NBA player who neatly fits an archetype.

If Anthony or Edwards don't start playing better I'm throwing my hands up and just putting Okongwu 1. It's also kinda hard to think of a good reason for why they should be above LaMelo at the moment.

I agree with you, other than the 2nd round thing obviously I was just going off of mocks. If winston was faster, poppier, drew a couple more fouls, shot a couple more threes, he'd be in the late lottery at least. He just knows how to do it. Sometimes it takes these small guys a few years to adjust to NBA size and length, like Shabazz Napier or Trey Burke before he got hurt. I believe in Cassius. Some mocks even have him below a DIFFERENT GUY NAMED CASSIUS. Cassius Stanley, Duke's 6'3 sg who's genuinely playing pretty well in short minutes at low usage.

One thing I like about Obi Toppin is that he has a short neck. Long neck doesn't help you play basketball. Long legs, long arms, those help you. I like toppin, I need to watch more than highlights to say anything definitive so that I can't be mocked in the future, but I like him.

Jay Scrubb's highlights against juco scrubs are wonderful. He looks like a bucket man

Someone probably already posted this in the thread but I'm guessing that the best guys to come out of this draft are not shooters now but will develop their shot as a pro. It's a measurements and gambling draft. The last first overall surprising measurements guy in a bad draft was big boy Antonino Bennet. Win some, lose some.

Instead of rambling on, I'll give an example, if Precious Achiuwa develops a shot and a little handle, he could end up as the top guy in the draft. I think we'll at least be able to shake out a handful of guys who look like potential starters and rotation players as the college season goes on. I'm crossing my fangers.

tadashi
Feb 20, 2006



The Hawks are gonna trade the 1st pick for 2 future firsts, a future second they will immediately waste, and the draft rights to...Jaden McDaniels?

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


isaac okoro is a really good dunker and a really good perimeter defender but not much other than that

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


He's a good passer. He needs to learn to shoot but he's the best defensive prospect in the draft by a lot

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

I just started looking for a text source to put together my watch list and wow, Nico's a top prospect? I like Nico a lot but I figured it would be the sort of thing where I was liking him because I cheer for the team, I didn't expect him to be a national prospect.

By the way if anyone has a simple text list of players it would be super helpful. Like preferably with Name, School, Year, Height although I can make everything work with just name and school.

E: I finally found something useable as I posted this. Simple enough that you can paste it into excel.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...cl1dvhc85g9royw


Any obvious missing names from that list that I should watch?

Rick fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Jan 11, 2020

El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010



Is this draft 2000 bad?

Probably Magic
Oct 9, 2012

derp

I feel like Dotson will stay, but Agbaji will go. Self retains point guards a lot more than he does wing players (can't imagine why) and Dotson's profile probably won't end up as high at the end of the year the same way Devonte Graham's and Frank Mason's was. Pure conjecture on my part though.

Agbaji is a cool utility player, but you probably want someone with better three-point skills in the modern NBA, especially at his size.

Azubuike is not really a post player for this era probably. Back in the early 2000s, yeah, now, not so much. Which bums me out because he can be pretty fun.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


Rick posted:

I just started looking for a text source to put together my watch list and wow, Nico's a top prospect? I like Nico a lot but I figured it would be the sort of thing where I was liking him because I cheer for the team, I didn't expect him to be a national prospect.

By the way if anyone has a simple text list of players it would be super helpful. Like preferably with Name, School, Year, Height although I can make everything work with just name and school.

E: I finally found something useable as I posted this. Simple enough that you can paste it into excel.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...cl1dvhc85g9royw


Any obvious missing names from that list that I should watch?

I like Nico a lot. Obviously you wish he was a better athlete but he's a really good passer and shooter. If it turns out he isn't athletic enough to hold down point full I think he's at least going to be a smart ball mover and a guy who can run off screens for threes. I also like Green from Zona.

I don't love the order of that bord but I think it's fine as just a list of dudes. I think the only people I'd add for sure are Isiah Livers at Michigan and Tshiebwe at West Virginia. Maybe Trayce Jackson-Davis from Indiana and Caleb Wesson at OSU (Carton on OSU is also going to be really good but he's more if a two and done than a one and done probably).

El Gallinero Gros posted:

Is this draft 2000 bad?

It definitely could be

MourningView fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Jan 11, 2020

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

MourningView posted:

I like Nico a lot. Obviously you wish he was a better athlete but he's a really good passer and shooter. If it turns out he isn't athletic enough to hold down point full I think he's at least going to be a smart ball mover and a guy who can run off screens for threes. I also like Green from Zona.

I don't love the order of that bord but I think it's fine as just a list of dudes. I think the only people I'd add for sure are Isiah Livers at Michigan and Tshiebwe at West Virginia. Maybe Trayce Jackson-Davis from Indiana and Caleb Wesson at OSU (Carton on OSU is also going to be really good but he's more if a two and done than a one and done probably).


It definitely could be

Cool, added them. Yeah at some point I'm going to resort that by . . . ESPN Plus order? Athletic mock? One of those I guess, RIP draft express.

I wish I did not have a job so I could watch like 80 dudes like I did a few years ago.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


El Gallinero Gros posted:

Is this draft 2000 bad?

impossible to know without the benefit of hindsight buuuuuuuut itís not especially promising

the early contenders for the number one pick have either left college and arenít especially impressive anyways, are horribly underperforming (edwards, anthony) or are overseas and not getting enough burn to really evaluate them (ball, maledon)

the rest of the draft seems pretty thin unless you need a ball handling 6í3 guard with streaky shooting because oh boy there are a lot of those

killian hayes will probably be the dark horse trendy draftnik pick once more people see some tape on him; heís not an amazing athlete but heís really talented and is showing a lot of promise (albeit in bundesliga which is... okay competition)

Declan MacManus fucked around with this message at 23:32 on Jan 11, 2020

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004



someone draft northwestern's pat "actually did you know he played lacrosse" spencer

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


Ball was getting plenty of playing time before he got hurt he's just weird for a lot of reasons. He was on the worst team in the league and they basically just let him run everything so lack of burn wasn't the issue

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


MourningView posted:

Ball was getting plenty of playing time before he got hurt he's just weird for a lot of reasons. He was on the worst team in the league and they basically just let him run everything so lack of burn wasn't the issue

yeah but then i donít have neat little groupings and i just want to be intellectually lazy like bill simmons

ball is about what people expected and hey maybe thatís enough for a number one pick; it really depends on whoís picking

Paul Zuvella
Dec 7, 2011



Id feel way better about Lamelo at 12 or whatever because I do think his floor is extremely high. You can't be 6'8" and be able to handle the ball like that and not have some sort of place in the NBA.

The draft is trash though so hes probably going to go 2 or 3 lol

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012



Lamelo will be evan Turner with a reality show

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MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?


he's an insanely good passer which evan turner definitely is not

the jumper is probs really broken but none of the other guys being talked about at number one have shot worth a poo poo this year either

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