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DickParasite posted:3. God mad at all the premarital sex Ah look just go to your doctor and get prescribed some medicinal Indulgences/Hail Mary's and you'll be fine.
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Sep 23, 2020 06:32
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at one point one quarter of all mental health admissions were for advanced syphillis (general paresis). more common than depression
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Sep 23, 2020 06:34
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Would people in pre-modern times even blink at a disease that killed less than a percent of the population? Novel viruses probably popped up all the time, killed some people, and didn't get spread further. Other ones like the flu, leprosy, syphilis, tuberculosis, etc just stayed endemic and killed a bunch of people each year. Plague outbreaks were more serious because they could kill 5, 30, even 50+% of a local population and had a tendency to hop between places when trade expanded. Life sucked in a lot of ways before modern medicine. AreWeDrunkYet fucked around with this message at 06:41 on Sep 23, 2020 |
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Sep 23, 2020 06:39
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So, I know there is a lot to be negative about and that this thread often strays towards general doom and gloom due to the strange times we live in, but I wanted to take a moment to talk about how things might not have to always be as bad as we sometimes feel like they are. As a rule I do not talk about my real-life work on SA, but I'm briefly breaking that rule because I don't want some of you to sink into depression and I want to throw some cold water on some of the ideas I see floating around in this thread. I am a college professor, who works very closely (and am married to) virologists and epidemiologists that have been studying these things for months. I've been following primary literature coming out on COVID-19 and have been signal-boosting experts on my twitter for almost half a year now. Here is what I want to tell you. A lot was unknown about SARS-CoV-2 when it first appeared, and so all of humanity as a society needed to take some blunt actions to control it and stop the spread (with varying levels of success world-wide). Because testing was initially limited (in some places more than others  ) we frequently only saw the people with very dire symptoms creating a picture of a disease that was very deadly and dangerous, which it still is to many people. However, during that time we missed the perhaps tens of thousands of people who were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic who never were tested (either out of ignorance of the need to, or the not having access to testing), and thus we only ever saw the worst-case scenario for this disease. Several meta-studies of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (including an excellent study out of the UK https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/six-distinct-types-of-covid-19-identified) now show that there are actually 6 distinct symptom groups of people who catch the virus. Of these, headache, muscle pain, and loss of smell appear to be the only 3 symptoms consistent across all 6 "groups", but only two of the "severe" groups develop the respiratory and cardiac issues that we associate with the disease. The remainder develop other symptoms that tend not be as severe. Why? That is being heavily studied right now, but there is definitely an interesting heterogeneity in how different people experience COVID-19, and what causes this is an important area of study (one study showed that countries where most of the population got TB shots had a smaller proportion of severe cases for example).We know a lot more about this pathogen now. The symptoms it causes, the steps doctors need to take to treat it, the protocols ERs and hospitals need to take to prevent doctors from being infected, and even the ease in which it spreads. And we are testing more and more people everyday, an important step in ultimately controlling this pandemic. We are making progress, but I need to explain something to some of you that might seem initially depressing. The vaccine is not going to be what saves us from this shutdown. While it is highly likely (barring any unforeseen side-effects), that at least one vaccine will be ready for use by the end of 2020, it is a practical impossibility to vaccinate the whole world in a short span of time. Even if you only prioritize health workers, nurses, EMTs and the janitors and technicians that clean up messes in the hospitals, you are still looking at a huge number of people. It is likely that we will not see the vaccine as being accessible to most people until 2022. The vaccine will likely work, but I would wager that most people are not willing to stay shutdown completely that long. If we wait for the vaccine to be ready for everyone we are looking at schools/colleges being shutdown for perhaps years, businesses that are barely getting by dying, the continued social isolation being experienced by millions of people that are doing the right thing lasting for years instead of months, and a serious lack of funding for most social programs due to a collapse of tax revenues. However, I did tell you that I wanted to NOT depress you, so here is the thing. We don't NEED to vaccine to start getting our lives moving again. We need to rebuild the way we think about running society, but if we do we can go back to a new normal that involves schools, social interaction, and an active economy. What it will mean is MASSIVE testing, restructuring buildings and classrooms to meet social distancing requirements, masks masks masks, and more massive testing. This is a big ask, but its a possibility. To prove my point I leave you with two other people a lot smarter than me who make my arguments far better. The first is University of Washington professor, and writer of the very excellent book Calling Bullshit: THE ART OF SKEPTICISM IN A DATA-DRIVEN WORLD, who has made an excellent twitter thread following the University of Illinois debacle that graced this very thread weeks ago. I'll leave the rest to him (there are 11 parts, read them all): https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1308515039217811456 The second is an article from an ER doctor and infectious disease expert whom I trust very closely, talking about schools vs ERs. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/i-ca...qenJj-VfixHP6c8 Anonymous Zebra fucked around with this message at 07:41 on Sep 23, 2020 |
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Sep 23, 2020 07:17
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While I believe your premise, I don't believe America to be able or willing to execute. We can barely get people to wear masks, people are now complacent, and the political ramifications of this election could be dire. I have trouble imagining many companies or schools embracing a new normal as opposed to waiting for the vaccine, or being able to afford the changes even if they desire to make them.
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Sep 23, 2020 07:27
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not relevant
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Sep 23, 2020 07:35
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Regarding viral evolution, don't forget that it operates on the level of populations of individual virus particles. A mutation that allows a virus to propagate to new cells in the host faster or evade the host immune system better will also be selected for, and a strong benefit there could outweigh a weak decrease in ability to propagate to new hosts (due to killing them). My point is that poo poo's complicated. e: clarification. Xaintrailles fucked around with this message at 09:36 on Sep 23, 2020 |
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Sep 23, 2020 09:03
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We wouldn't just need tons of testing, we would also need accurate testing. A minimum false negative rate of 20%, and a week+ needed after exposure before it even reaches that level of accuracy, means that testing is not a good filter.
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Sep 23, 2020 09:17
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i like nice words
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Xaintrailles posted:Regarding viral evolution, don't forget that it operates on the level of individual virus particles. A mutation that allows a virus to propagate to new cells in the host faster or evade the host immune system better will also be selected for, and a strong benefit there could outweigh a weak decrease in ability to propagate to new hosts (due to killing them). Individuals don't evolve, populations do.
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Sep 23, 2020 09:31
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Anonymous Zebra posted:If we wait for the vaccine to be ready for everyone we are looking at schools/colleges being shutdown for perhaps years, businesses that are barely getting by dying, the continued social isolation being experienced by millions of people that are doing the right thing lasting for years instead of months, and a serious lack of funding for most social programs due to a collapse of tax revenues. However, I did tell you that I wanted to NOT depress you, so here is the thing. We don't NEED to vaccine to start getting our lives moving again. We need to rebuild the way we think about running society, but if we do we can go back to a new normal that involves schools, social interaction, and an active economy. What it will mean is MASSIVE testing, restructuring buildings and classrooms to meet social distancing requirements, masks masks masks, and more massive testing. This is a big ask, but its a possibility. You said it well but the problem is doing all those things will cost powerful people money. It's generally easier to throw more poor people into the grinder than make systematic changes so a lot of places are just going to do that. The UK is the prime example of this, pubs and restaurants were reopened before schools with functionally no new measures and the government literally paid people to go dine out. Until this week it was trying to push everyone back into offices because the Tory party is financially backed by people like Tim Martin who owns the biggest pub chain in the UK and others with heavy investment in city center/offices real estate.
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Sep 23, 2020 10:14
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Not sure if this was posted yet but Boris Johnson is getting antsy and is ordering another partial lockdown. From what I've briefly read just mostly encouragement but he said if things keep getting worse then they'll do another shutdown. COVID 'firepower': Britain imposes six-month curbs against second wave quote:Just weeks after urging people to start returning to workplaces, Johnson advised office workers to stay at home if they could. He ordered all pubs, bars, restaurants and other hospitality sites to close at 10 p.m. from Thursday, with only table service allowed. Isn't table service regular indoor service at your table? Does it mean something else in the UK?
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Sep 23, 2020 11:24
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Table service means you sit down, and somebody comes along and takes your order, as opposed to you going up to the bar and ordering your food, like you would in most pubs.
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Sep 23, 2020 11:30
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Ah ok so they're trying to limit people at the bar actually inside of the restaurant then. If that were the case then I'd imagine no pure bar would be able to open. Like, there's a few bars in my city with zero tables.
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Sep 23, 2020 11:35
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Pennywise the Frown posted:Not sure if this was posted yet but Boris Johnson is getting antsy and is ordering another partial lockdown. From what I've briefly read just mostly encouragement but he said if things keep getting worse then they'll do another shutdown. It's kind of wrong to portray this as a lockdown imo, the actual changes are beyond worthless, only really apply to socialising and even then they are largely ineffective. What motivates them entirely is avoiding being forced into paying for more job retention/furlough and the plan is basically to half rear end a bunch of countrywide restrictions like the forcing pubs to close at 10 (most close at 11 anyway) that don't do anything and then have 'local lockdowns' which just happen to cover most of the country with tighter restrictions. Howver as the government isnt technically stoppping people from working (just making all the non-megacorp buisnesses collapse) they dont have to pay anyone any money! Profit! (And loads of poor people die but they dont give a gently caress about that).
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Sep 23, 2020 12:01
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Yeah it seems pretty empty and non-binding. But it makes them look like they're doing something. "See?! I told you to work from home with my minor suggestion but you didn't listen! Not gonna pay you!" Then they do an actual lockdown in a few months when everything fails miserably. I'm waiting for that to happen here but I don't see it happening. Gov Ever's just extended our mask mandate until November which is really nice. Our GOP is suing the gov of course. Our cases are exploding. We're, again, no longer allowed in Chicago. 
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Sep 23, 2020 12:04
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dr_rat posted:Ah look just go to your doctor and get prescribed some medicinal Indulgences/Hail Mary's and you'll be fine. How many Hail Mary's do I need?
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Sep 23, 2020 12:12
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You don't go to the bar in most pubs at all right now. You order drinks via an app on your phone and they get delivered to your table. There are a lot of good reasons why restaurants/pubs opened before schools and I think it's needlessly black and white to think that the original relaxing of rules for places like pubs is just toffs stuffing poor people into a grinder. It's not surprising in the least that large business owners have a vested interest in opening up, and will lean on the government to achieve that. But most private sector workers work for SMEs, and these are the businesses most at risk from an endless lockdown. I don't think people fully appreciate the armageddon that is looming for small-scale businesses and the devastating impact that will have on a lot of people. The UK, and many economies like it, have implemented a lot of temporary stop-gap measures like the furlough schemes, business rate moratoriums, VAT deferrals, loans and so on. People look at the world around them and see things mostly ticking on as before, if a little quieter, and think the storm has been weathered more or less. It would be more accurate to say that the penny has yet to drop. I think this thread of all places knows most of the best practice to reduce COVID, but in the end the strict measures that would be safest are also the most deleterious to people's livelihoods. Striking a balance between safety from the virus and safety from crippling the economy is the long-term key to managing the crisis. It's not a popular thing to say that lives should be balanced with the economy, but in the end, the economy itself is inextricably linked to the well-being of people, just as much as any public health disaster. I complete agree with Anonymous Zebra that part and parcel of a long-term plan involves restructuring the economy to be as COVID compliant as possible without the application of long-term blanket lockdowns.
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Sep 23, 2020 12:37
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The trouble with the "balance" idea is that the best thing for both people and the economy is going hard for eradication: locking down harder + test trace isolate + border quarantines, best implemented via green zones. Eradicate then open up and you get the economy back (everything but international travel) in a few months instead of grinding it away over what might be 2 years.
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Sep 23, 2020 12:55
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Anonymous Zebra posted:However, I did tell you that I wanted to NOT depress you, so here is the thing. We don't NEED to vaccine to start getting our lives moving again. We need to rebuild the way we think about running society, but if we do we can go back to a new normal that involves schools, social interaction, and an active economy. What it will mean is MASSIVE testing, restructuring buildings and classrooms to meet social distancing requirements, masks masks masks, and more massive testing. This is a big ask, but its a possibility. Yeah the big secret in weathering the pandemic has always been: take it seriously. Masks everywhere, shitloads of testing, keep repeating the testing over and over and over. It's onerous and lovely but it works. Unfortunately the US has had this dumb fuckin' idiot controlling the country's pandemic response: https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1258838201818476544 "This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great" oh well
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Sep 23, 2020 13:12
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Xaintrailles posted:The trouble with the "balance" idea is that the best thing for both people and the economy is going hard for eradication: locking down harder + test trace isolate + border quarantines, best implemented via green zones. Eradicate then open up and you get the economy back (everything but international travel) in a few months instead of grinding it away over what might be 2 years. People can correct me if I'm wrong, but once the virus is relatively spread, eradication doesn't seem possible unless it was successfully dealt with at the start. And if it is, it would require a lockdown of unheard of severity and length. The story seems the same in almost every country. It spread, lockdown was instituted for 1-3 months or so, the curve was flattened for another month or two, and now cases are spiking again, leading to reintroduction of more severe controls. Lockdowns now serve as a delaying and mitigating tactic, but not one of eradication. It seems like you only really got one shot at getting it right. Now that most places didn't, we're going to have to face up to a much more prolonged, uglier reality.
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Sep 23, 2020 13:20
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xtal posted:He suggested not to wear masks initially. Secondly, having a vaccine be developed doesn't mean tested, available and considered safe. If they fast track the vaccine without considering long term studies, then that could make things much worse later; and people who are skeptical because of that will prevent herd immunity. There are 4 different vaccines in Phase 3 trials in the U.S.. This means they passed rounds 1 and 2, which means they are likely safe. At least one will be approved this year no doubt. Johnson and Johnson is recruiting 60,000 people. Pfizer like 40,000 people. They are only required to test I believe 3000.
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Sep 23, 2020 13:28
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It's much harder now but the fundamental tactic of closing off an area, bringing contacts/possible transmission in the area to an absolute minimum, testing everyone (a few times because of false negatives), and fully isolating those who have it until they clear it still works. Afterwards you have to keep up border quarantines until those areas have done the same, and keep up disease surveillance for anything that slipped through. It would be an unprecedented effort but the alternative is also unprecedented and is worse. If reservoir animal species that can easily transmit to humans have been established though, yeah, we're hosed.
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Sep 23, 2020 13:39
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1308730595732795392 Probably just a side note but Woody Johnson (of Johnson & Johnson family) is Trump's political appointee as UK ambassador and major GOP donor.
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Sep 23, 2020 13:43
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Jeza posted:People can correct me if I'm wrong, but once the virus is relatively spread, eradication doesn't seem possible unless it was successfully dealt with at the start. And if it is, it would require a lockdown of unheard of severity and length. The story seems the same in almost every country. It spread, lockdown was instituted for 1-3 months or so, the curve was flattened for another month or two, and now cases are spiking again, leading to reintroduction of more severe controls. Lockdowns now serve as a delaying and mitigating tactic, but not one of eradication. Eradication is super hard. New Zealand is pretty much the gold standard in handling the pandemic, they had an outbreak in April but since May 7 they've only had four covid deaths. They managed to get their detected transmissions down to zero for over a month but the drat thing kept popping up again and they eventually had another small outbreak in August. (A bunch of that was from poo poo head foreigners sneaking in and avoiding the quarantine procedures.)  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/ Australia managed to get reported infections down to zero for a very very short period but hosed it up and are only just beating it back into submission:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/ This site is pretty useful in seeing the pattern that different countries have followed: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries  (Note that the graphs don't have Y axes and have been standardized for the sake of comparison so their graphs are great for comparing the curves but useless for anything else)
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Sep 23, 2020 13:44
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Xaintrailles posted:The trouble with the "balance" idea is that the best thing for both people and the economy is going hard for eradication: locking down harder + test trace isolate + border quarantines, best implemented via green zones. Eradicate then open up and you get the economy back (everything but international travel) in a few months instead of grinding it away over what might be 2 years. Most families absolutely can't survive on a few months without an income. Most governments are too cheap to give a replacement. So in the real world, going hardcore on lockdown will just end up in a lot of homeless people with far worse outcomes than covid.
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Sep 23, 2020 14:05
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Vaccine confidence has plummeted in the US so the FDA is apparently pulling back on the reins a little bit https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1308484302838038530 quote:The stakes are high: polls show the relentless politicization of the race to develop a vaccine is taking its toll. Pew Research Center recently reported that the percentage of people who said they would get the vaccine if it were available today has dropped to just over 50 percent from 72 percent in May. quote:The guidance, which is far more rigorous than what was used for emergency clearance of hydroxychloroquine or convalescent plasma, is an effort to shore up confidence in an agency that made missteps during the pandemic. While it is being reviewed by the White House Office of Management and Budget, elements of it are already being shared with vaccine makers. Under it, the FDA would ask manufacturers seeking an emergency authorization — a far quicker process than a formal approval — to follow participants in late-stage clinical trials for a median of at least two months, starting after they receive a second vaccine shot, according to two people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss information before it is made public.
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Sep 23, 2020 14:11
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News reports that our gov will introduce new color roni indicators for affected areas, which will now include "crimson" and "super red". I'm not making this up.
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Sep 23, 2020 14:15
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Vaccine confidence has plummeted in the US so the FDA is apparently pulling back on the reins a little bit quote:The stakes are high: polls show the relentless politicization of the race to develop a vaccine is taking its toll. Pew Research Center recently reported that the percentage of people who said they would get the vaccine if it were available today has dropped to just over 50 percent from 72 percent in May. Jesus Christ. At some point we're going to have to charge the leaders of the anti-vacc movement for crimes against humanity
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Sep 23, 2020 14:41
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DickParasite posted:Jesus Christ. At some point we're going to have to charge the leaders of the anti-vacc movement for crimes against humanity They aren't responsible for the endless politicization of the race to develop a vaccine, even if they're otherwise mostly dumb as gently caress.
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Sep 23, 2020 14:45
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Yeah, I think the recent drop isn't your typical antivaxer autism/sterilization/mind control BS but a fear that the Trump admin is trying to push this out the door before its ready to look good for the election. It's a pretty reasonable fear given how "hands on" they've been with other federal institutions.
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Sep 23, 2020 15:08
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what's more fun is without a certain percent of people immunized then we continue this zombie economy indefinitely making the vaccine pointless in a very dumb darwin award style roundabout way
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Sep 23, 2020 15:17
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also, the election is in 41 days. so i don't know where the election vaccine idea is coming from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html zer0spunk fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Sep 23, 2020 |
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Sep 23, 2020 15:23
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I don’t know if we can. Many small businesses have pulled out all the stops to survive the first wave and will definitely not survive the second. Unless we are now in a place where small business doesn’t matter to the economy anymore which is entirely possible because I don’t even know what “the economy” means anymore.
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Sep 23, 2020 15:24
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coronavirus posted:Most families absolutely can't survive on a few months without an income. Most governments are too cheap to give a replacement. So in the real world, going hardcore on lockdown will just end up in a lot of homeless people with far worse outcomes than covid. in the real world, lockdown will never happen anyway. they were just saying it would work better than this stupid poo poo we're doing, which it would
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Sep 23, 2020 15:26
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zer0spunk posted:also, the election is in 41 days. so i don't know where the election vaccine idea is coming from Trump. He's also been saying over and over that the lockdowns will mysteriously disappear on Nov 4 because he's adamant they were only ever a Liberal scam put in place to make him look bad. Noblesse Obliged posted:I don’t know if we can. Many small businesses have pulled out all the stops to survive the first wave and will definitely not survive the second. It means corporations, that's all the GOP cares about. They've already funneled TRILLIONS of funds into propping those up throughout the pandemic. E: they've also repeatedly hosed over the stimulus packaged by insisting they include legal protections for businesses, I think the most recent GOP offering didn't even include the $1200 payments to the unemployed Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Sep 23, 2020 |
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Sep 23, 2020 15:26
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coronavirus posted:Most families absolutely can't survive on a few months without an income. Most governments are too cheap to give a replacement. So in the real world, going hardcore on lockdown will just end up in a lot of homeless people with far worse outcomes than covid. You know it's the best plan when the gimmick account argues against... Most places already had an eviction moratorium, and the point of this is that it's quick: you probably only need to lock an individual area down for 2 months. I agree that governments are too cheap to pull it off but that's because they don't weigh it against the total economic damage of the alternative. It's going to be worse for people when the COVID-depressed economy costs them their jobs and any chance of a new one, vs them having to sit tight at home for a few weeks and then walking out into a functioning society. It does need a compliant population and capable government so I'm not saying everywhere should try it.
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Sep 23, 2020 15:30
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Trump. Yeah, I don't follow his twitter or anything but I've heard from the maga crowd at my workplace that he's saying they'll be ready in November and even they're suspicious.
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Sep 23, 2020 15:32
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zer0spunk posted:also, the election is in 41 days. so i don't know where the election vaccine idea is coming from So it's actually theoretically possible to happens sans fuckery if everything goes just right, but trust is in short supply with Trump involved. If the numbers come out so-so but technically within bounds we know they'll grant an EUA anyway, so we just can't rely on them to make the right call. I'm just hoping we don't have to deal with that and for once everything just goes right.
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Sep 23, 2020 16:05
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Given the level of compromise observed in US health/research agencies lately, the only solid way to get an idea about the actual effects of any US vaccine will be "let a bunch of other people get it, then wait a couple of months to see what happens to them". And yes, this is theoretically what the current trials are doing, but it's far harder to lie about effects on the general population. If your trust in US institutions isn't currently negative, you aren't paying attention.
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Sep 23, 2020 16:42
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Noblesse Obliged posted:Unless we are now in a place where small business doesn’t matter to the economy anymore It's never really mattered to anyone that influenced it
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Sep 23, 2020 16:57
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