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low key sex master
May 27, 2004






wilderthanmild posted:

My understanding is that's not something that's guaranteed to happen to this or any virus, despite a lot of people assuming that it is a thing that just happens. When a virus becomes weaker, not accounting for things like advances in medicine or other changes in host behavior, it's because of selective pressure on either the host or the virus. Without that, it's basically random luck that dictates if it's going to be more or less lethal over time.

Selective pressure on the virus can make it less severe or less lethal because it's severity or lethality limits its spread. In case like this a less lethal variant would spread much easier. For example, one of the things that limits Ebola outbreaks is that it is both completely debilitating and incredibly lethal, causing it to "burn out" in most cases before it can spread too far. In fact, the worst Ebola outbreak(2014-2016 west africa) was actually the least lethal as far case fatality rates go, but also had the highest death count as well managing to spread to several countries. You could argue this happened with the 1918-1920 Flu, as it was extremely rapid in very severe onset and very quick to kill those who died, causing it to have trouble staying around once conditions were no longer favorable, but I'd argue luck is a bigger factor.

Selective pressure on the host is when the virus is so good at killing the host that eventually the only surviving population are those who have some adaptation that gives them better odds at survival. Basically, the virus can stay the same, but over time everybody that can die, dies, so the ones that live are the ones who are much less likely to die from it. I don't have a good example of this, but I'm pretty sure any example would be cataclysmic for humanity.

I don't really see either of these being big enough factors here to cause the kind of pressure to guarantee it will ever weaken, so if it does, it's dumb luck.

I appreciate this post, even though it made me kind of sad because I was hoping it would like, just weaken to a point where it's not going to be an issue for very many people

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Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I saw when the cocktail waitress opened the sixth bottle, and there was a great beach theme night; and the sun became black as Goon Lust, and the whole moon became as blush.

Sjs00 posted:

Bazing!
..
Oh wait were you not making a Mt. Pleasant joke

I was

Rolo
Nov 16, 2005

Hmm, what have we here?

Just got Pfizer number 2. Never been so excited to know I’m gonna have a dead arm and fever tomorrow.

gently caress covid!
gently caress anti-vaxxers!
gently caress the police!

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived


low key sex master posted:

I appreciate this post, even though it made me kind of sad because I was hoping it would like, just weaken to a point where it's not going to be an issue for very many people

all the more reason everyone who can get the shot should, if only to protect those who won't be able to get it

but we live in hellworld so this will be endemic for way too long and kill chuds and the at risk for the foreseeable future

all that is assuming distribution actually happens properly and fairly globally and not just to certain countries in the first place

KillTylerDurden
May 15, 2004
I watched Fight Club one too many times.

Got my pfirst Pfizer pfoke at Pford Pfield yesterday from a man in pfatigues, thanks PFEMA!

Feeling: a little sore at injection site

Hearing: Bill Gates whispering "get an abortion and kill yourself"

5G signal: Solid, even in my basement

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you

Fun Shoe

wilderthanmild posted:

My understanding is that's not something that's guaranteed to happen to this or any virus, despite a lot of people assuming that it is a thing that just happens. When a virus becomes weaker, not accounting for things like advances in medicine or other changes in host behavior, it's because of selective pressure on either the host or the virus. Without that, it's basically random luck that dictates if it's going to be more or less lethal over time.

Selective pressure on the virus can make it less severe or less lethal because it's severity or lethality limits its spread. In case like this a less lethal variant would spread much easier. For example, one of the things that limits Ebola outbreaks is that it is both completely debilitating and incredibly lethal, causing it to "burn out" in most cases before it can spread too far. In fact, the worst Ebola outbreak(2014-2016 west africa) was actually the least lethal as far case fatality rates go, but also had the highest death count as well managing to spread to several countries. You could argue this happened with the 1918-1920 Flu, as it was extremely rapid in very severe onset and very quick to kill those who died, causing it to have trouble staying around once conditions were no longer favorable, but I'd argue luck is a bigger factor.

Selective pressure on the host is when the virus is so good at killing the host that eventually the only surviving population are those who have some adaptation that gives them better odds at survival. Basically, the virus can stay the same, but over time everybody that can die, dies, so the ones that live are the ones who are much less likely to die from it. I don't have a good example of this, but I'm pretty sure any example would be cataclysmic for humanity.

I don't really see either of these being big enough factors here to cause the kind of pressure to guarantee it will ever weaken, so if it does, it's dumb luck.

Don't forget human reaction is a big part of that selective pressure. Hygiene, quarantine, social distancing, and vaccines all heavily select against deadlier mutations at least over the long term - a virus that causes a mild cold will be mostly left unmolested, one that makes your insides liquify will have everything we can think of thrown at it.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?





If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

Raskolnikov2089
Nov 3, 2006

Schizzy to the matic

FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

Not really unexpected based on SARS

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7192220/

Greggster
Aug 14, 2010


FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

It's a good thing the US are particularly good at dealing with mental health

Cthulu Carl
Apr 16, 2006

You need to click the icon.





FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

Given how America has been acting for the past few years, can they really determine the psychiatric issues were the result of covid?

Away all Goats
Jul 5, 2005

Goose's rebellion


FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

Good thing they won't have access to any dangerous tools for committing violence

Akuma
Sep 11, 2001




FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21
Well no because they have trouble drawing any conclusions as to the cause, for all they know it's the year of isolation that's caused it, or multiple other factors - in fact it's likely not due to the physical effects of the virus. And there's also just a ton of stuff around it that the study didn't account for or track.

It's a shocking statistic but when you look into what they actually found it's very very inconclusive.

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I saw when the cocktail waitress opened the sixth bottle, and there was a great beach theme night; and the sun became black as Goon Lust, and the whole moon became as blush.

For me the most alarming thing is this says mostly Americans and 1/3

Our poo poo medical care means they must have been pretty bad like it was noticeable and diagnosable and how does that even happen so many don't even have insurance.

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I saw when the cocktail waitress opened the sixth bottle, and there was a great beach theme night; and the sun became black as Goon Lust, and the whole moon became as blush.

Spinz posted:

For me the most alarming thing is this says mostly Americans and 1/3

Our poo poo medical care means they must have been pretty bad like it was noticeable and diagnosable and how does that even happen so many don't even have insurance.

1/3

0ops drat

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 9, 2009

FUCK





Rolo posted:

Just got Pfizer number 2. Never been so excited to know I’m gonna have a dead arm and fever tomorrow.

gently caress covid!
gently caress anti-vaxxers!
gently caress the police!

I passionately support this post

Will there be a headline that excuses a white man killing the poo poo out of people in a mass shooting due to covid that he couldn't have possibly avoided, while his facebook repeatedly says don't wear a diaper on your face?

I give it until July, tops.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

Because if I tell you, you'll tell your friends, your friends are callin' me on the horn all the time, I gotta show up at shopping centers for openings and sign autographs and shit like that and it makes my life a *hell*. Okay? A living hell.


wilderthanmild posted:

My understanding is that's not something that's guaranteed to happen to this or any virus, despite a lot of people assuming that it is a thing that just happens. When a virus becomes weaker, not accounting for things like advances in medicine or other changes in host behavior, it's because of selective pressure on either the host or the virus. Without that, it's basically random luck that dictates if it's going to be more or less lethal over time.

Selective pressure on the virus can make it less severe or less lethal because it's severity or lethality limits its spread. In case like this a less lethal variant would spread much easier. For example, one of the things that limits Ebola outbreaks is that it is both completely debilitating and incredibly lethal, causing it to "burn out" in most cases before it can spread too far. In fact, the worst Ebola outbreak(2014-2016 west africa) was actually the least lethal as far case fatality rates go, but also had the highest death count as well managing to spread to several countries. You could argue this happened with the 1918-1920 Flu, as it was extremely rapid in very severe onset and very quick to kill those who died, causing it to have trouble staying around once conditions were no longer favorable, but I'd argue luck is a bigger factor.

Selective pressure on the host is when the virus is so good at killing the host that eventually the only surviving population are those who have some adaptation that gives them better odds at survival. Basically, the virus can stay the same, but over time everybody that can die, dies, so the ones that live are the ones who are much less likely to die from it. I don't have a good example of this, but I'm pretty sure any example would be cataclysmic for humanity.

I don't really see either of these being big enough factors here to cause the kind of pressure to guarantee it will ever weaken, so if it does, it's dumb luck.

Yeah most covid deaths occur roughly 4 or 5 weeks after the initial infection (if a hospital bed is available) and a very large percent of infections are asymptomatic, there's pretty much zero selective pressure pushing coronavirus towards being less lethal and plenty of room for more aggressive variants to flourish. Less than 5% of the global population has received a vaccination so far:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

Only 5.5% of India's 1.39 billion population has received a jab (and only 0.8% are fully vaccinated) and their cases graph currently looks like this:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Brazil has a slightly higher vaccination rate than India (8.5% has at least one dose, 2.4% are fully vaccinated) and their deaths are skyrocketing:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/

The US is actually doing real well comparatively but make sure you and your loved ones get a shot into your arms as soon as possible

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

Are the writers pivoting to zombie apocalypse?

CaptainSarcastic
Jul 6, 2013

HAIL SATAN



Zugzwang posted:

Don't (good) vaccines generally create better immunity than natural infection, with natural immunity from this thing looking like it lasts quite a long time as well? I realize that verified reinfection is a thing, but last I checked (am I wrong?), not super-common.

This seemed to get passed over, so I wanted to jump in and say that from the data so far it looks like natural immunity from covid infection is actually pretty poo poo compared to getting vaccinated. Offhand I can't remember the estimate, but I think the upper bound estimate for the duration of natural immunity was like 5 months, if that.

I'm going from memory, so if anyone wants to correct me please do so.

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived


i've had exactly two arguments about getting the shot. one person i was closer with so it was in a more "cmon cut the poo poo" tone vs eggshells of the other, but they both basically have the same weird fear of the thing.

i'd rather eat paint than try that again. what they didn't seem to know, and maybe this just isn't a popular fact, the supreme court ruled that vaccines can be mandated by the state since you're viewed as a health risk to others beyond yourself

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/04/01/vaccine-supreme-court-smallpox-covid/

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

What is this boring crap we're watching? Check if Antiques Roadshow is on




N=1 I got covid twice, first in February 2020 after some dickheads took their kid skiing in Italy and sent her back to class to sit next to my daughter. So yeh one of the first confirmed cases.

Then I got it again but milder 8 months later after walking into a disabled toilet in Tesco’s after some dirty bastard had been in there and covered every square inch of the place in piss. I inhaled pissy air went “oh fuuuuuuck!” warned the staff and sent my teenager round the store for self isolation milk and bread.

My friend is part of the Oxford trial so they came round and took blood from me in exchange for a £25 love2Shop voucher. So I got covid twice and all I got to show for it is this lovely lamp.

Sir Bobert Fishbone
Jan 16, 2006

Beebort


wait are piss fumes a known vector of transmission

Ugly In The Morning
Jul 1, 2010

Dang dicknose don't tuck that money under your eyelids!


Pillbug

FlamingLiberal posted:

If this turns out to be correct we are in serious trouble

https://twitter.com/reutersscience/status/1379745972394332161?s=21

Quoting this so I can actually read the study when I’m not getting ready for work, but the last study I saw like this included “sleep abnormalities” and “difficulty with mental math” as psych issues, and even noted they were often transient. My sleep problems and dumbbrain went away in like two months or so.

Pine Cone Jones
Dec 6, 2009

You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!


Are there any news updates out of Brazil or Mexico?

CaptainSarcastic
Jul 6, 2013

HAIL SATAN



Ugly In The Morning posted:

Quoting this so I can actually read the study when I’m not getting ready for work, but the last study I saw like this included “sleep abnormalities” and “difficulty with mental math” as psych issues, and even noted they were often transient. My sleep problems and dumbbrain went away in like two months or so.

There's no link to the actual study, and I haven't yet searched to see if I can find it elsewhere. But yeah, right now I'm looking at that and thinking I really want to read their methodology and definition of terms. Observational studies are difficult, and so far it is looking like there could be a lot of correlation/causation issues here.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

What is this boring crap we're watching? Check if Antiques Roadshow is on




Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

wait are piss fumes a known vector of transmission

It’s in the sewage system so I always assumed it would have been the pissy air. Like this wasn’t normal piss fumes, it was actual piss, I saw him come out and he glared at me like “and what” and I swear down he had aimed at the ceiling.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012



Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

wait are piss fumes a known vector of transmission

lovely fumes, certainly.

There are great studies of it out of both the SARS epidemic and this one.

Castaign
Apr 4, 2011

And now I knew that while my body sat safe in the cheerful little church, he had been hunting my soul in the Court of the Dragon.


learnincurve posted:

It’s in the sewage system so I always assumed it would have been the pissy air. Like this wasn’t normal piss fumes, it was actual piss, I saw him come out and he glared at me like “and what” and I swear down he had aimed at the ceiling.

It's viral particles and remnants (likely from infections in the past) that show up in wastewater. All of the stuff about testing wastewater is basically pointless for purposes of identifying hotspots or stopping transmission, since it's basically showing us where Covid was, not where Covid is.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/wastewater-surveillance/developing-a-wastewater-surveillance-sampling-strategy.html

Chief McHeath
Apr 23, 2002



Covid laden piss fumes

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

Pine Cone Jones posted:

Are there any news updates out of Brazil or Mexico?

the President of Mexico said, during his daily propaganda morning show that he wouldn't get a vaccine, then said the leaked videos of old people receiving empty vaccines were a political attack staged by his enemies, then the old as balls Secretary of Health came out and said it wasn't a big deal if the president didn't get vaccinated because he had a superb immune system and his travels all over Mexico made him a superman

I assume Bolsonaro is doing equally great in Brazil

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010



quote:

India has carried out a record 4.3m daily vaccinations as its second wave of coronavirus continued its rapid spread, with 115,000 fresh infections in 24 hours – the highest single-day total anywhere in the world.

While the vaccination rate, which had been been hovering at between 2-3m a day, was a triumph it was not enough to quell the sense of despondency over the sharp increase in cases.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/apr/07/india-carries-out-record-covid-jabs-cases-rise

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012



quote:

While the vaccination rate, which had been been hovering at between 2-3m a day, was a triumph it was not enough to quell the sense of despondency over the sharp increase in cases.

You don’t say

If that record rate is maintained every day from tomorrow onward, the campaign will be finished in February of 2022, assuming these are all single‐dose vaccines.

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010



Oh boy.

quote:

London: Hundreds of thousands of doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine have been flown from the United Kingdom to Australia but the source of the shipments was kept quiet to avoid any controversy in coronavirus-ravaged Britain.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age can reveal Australia’s early rollout has been propped up by 717,000 doses manufactured in the UK rather than from factories in Europe as widely believed.

The need to source jabs from the UK underscores the difficulties Australia and AstraZeneca have faced in extracting supply from the EU under the bloc’s tough new export controls. It is now known that not a single AstraZeneca dose has been exported to Australia from Europe.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/more-than-700-000-astrazeneca-doses-secretly-flown-to-australia-from-britain-20210407-p57hcl.html

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012



PNG eagerly awaits Australian aid.

Desperado Bones
Aug 29, 2009

Cute, adorable, and creepy at the same time!






Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

the President of Mexico said, during his daily propaganda morning show that he wouldn't get a vaccine, then said the leaked videos of old people receiving empty vaccines were a political attack staged by his enemies, then the old as balls Secretary of Health came out and said it wasn't a big deal if the president didn't get vaccinated because he had a superb immune system and his travels all over Mexico made him a superman

I assume Bolsonaro is doing equally great in Brazil

Reminder that before that he was defending a sexual abuser. And called the feminist groups an attack group created by the right.

Yeah.

I guess covid-19 gave him early dementia. (I was a supporter of his party, but these last year...holy poo poo. poo poo has gone crazy gently caress with them).


Chile is also joining us in "oh fuuuuccck whaat" land. They removed all their prevention measures while doing their vaccination campaign and now the numbers are going up up up. Only a 45% of the population has the first vaccine.

Bape Culture
Sep 13, 2006


Is there freezer planes?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012



Bape Culture posted:

Is there freezer planes?

There are unit load devices (like the common cargo container but miniaturized and designed to fit in the hold better) that can maintain cold temperatures. They have a limited period of operation because it’s not wise to run a diesel engine in the cargo hold of a plane. They’re loaded with dry ice and use electronics to control heat exchange between it and the payload chamber.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vagtcHxHB4

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

The company has no assets of any significant value.


edit: disregard

Platystemon posted:

You don’t say

If that record rate is maintained every day from tomorrow onward, the campaign will be finished in February of 2022, assuming these are all single‐dose vaccines.
If you're talking about the US, your math isn't adding up here. At current rates (3 million shots/day) 100% of 18+ will have the shot by July 1st, which is ~78% of the population. (link)

Obviously things will slow down at some point due to vaccine hesitancy, but that's more than 6 months ahead of Feb 2022.

ShadowHawk fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Apr 9, 2021

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

Because if I tell you, you'll tell your friends, your friends are callin' me on the horn all the time, I gotta show up at shopping centers for openings and sign autographs and shit like that and it makes my life a *hell*. Okay? A living hell.


ShadowHawk posted:

If you're talking about the US

The article they're quoting is about India

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

I look like you wanna look, I fuck like you wanna fuck, I am smart, capable, and most importantly, I am free in all the ways that you are not.



Ramrod XTreme

CaptainSarcastic posted:

This seemed to get passed over, so I wanted to jump in and say that from the data so far it looks like natural immunity from covid infection is actually pretty poo poo compared to getting vaccinated. Offhand I can't remember the estimate, but I think the upper bound estimate for the duration of natural immunity was like 5 months, if that.

I'm going from memory, so if anyone wants to correct me please do so.
Thanks. I stopped being able to keep up with the literature on this drat thing ages ago for various reasons. I hope the people I know who already had the real infection will still get jabs.

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Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

Because if I tell you, you'll tell your friends, your friends are callin' me on the horn all the time, I gotta show up at shopping centers for openings and sign autographs and shit like that and it makes my life a *hell*. Okay? A living hell.


Pine Cone Jones posted:

Are there any news updates out of Brazil or Mexico?

Brazil looking p. bad

https://twitter.com/terrence_mccoy/status/1379788552637141002
https://twitter.com/terrence_mccoy/status/1379789431389978624
https://twitter.com/terrence_mccoy/status/1379790325116461057

https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1379573837503795200

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