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Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

There's a mostly effective flu vaccine as well.#

[e] You personally, the goon in the street types are largely going to be okay so stop panicking. Like everything else the people that will be severely affected are the worlds poorest and most vulnerable.

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Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Shinku ABOOKEN posted:

is there *any* virus that is strictly nonhuman-to-human?

A good number, exotic stuff like Rift valley fever all the way through to various types of swine and avian flu.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Considering the symptoms seem to range from none to death in what way are they worse than reported? Also are you trying to say the kids have it or not?

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Straits times reporting a case in Singapore with no known traceable infected contacts and no travel to China.

WELP.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-confirms-two-more-cases-bringing-total-to-30

Saros fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Feb 6, 2020

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Ogantai posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw

Summary:

  • Only about 10% of infections in China are being detected.
  • The true number of new infections per day is probably about 50,000.
  • Doubling time is ~ 5 days.
  • The ones that aren't being reported are likely less severe.
  • The epidemic in Wuhan will probably peak in about a month.
  • The peak elsewhere in China will be a month or two after that.
  • The peaks outside China will vary according to the amount of connectivity to China.

50k cases/day :psypop:

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Oh poo poo how screwed are those poor bastards.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

FlamingLiberal posted:

Do they gently caress pangolins in Brighton too

A bunch of doctors on a ski trip to the French alps have contracted it from a guy they were in the hotel with.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Chrs posted:

Been a slow day for coronavirus news

They finally named it. Covid 19.

Catchy!

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

alphabettitouretti posted:

The infected woman in London apparently just showed up to A&E unannounced. That hospital is now down a couple of staff, who have been quarantined. And she took an Uber to get there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/london-coronavirus-patient-turned-up-hospital-uber-taxi

I'm changing my forecast to we're dooooomed.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Bape Culture posted:

The hospital sent her home pending test results lmao. What the gently caress

Telling people to self isolate at home and ambulancing them there is the correct response because most will just have the flu/a cold.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

That would be a bit much even for hellworld 2020.

I feel bad for the poor uber driver who is no doubt stuck at home and unable to work.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!




:lol: oh dear

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

I'm a bit aghast at how chill the Public health lady is about this. The infectious lady was likely in the rear of the Uber, using the door handles, seat belt and the like. Guess who else uses the door handles, seatbelt etc. All the following passengers!

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

mitztronic posted:

How can they possibly say that when the R0 is as high as 5.5

I'm hoping that this is in response to a (stupid) journalist question about the Uber driver. Its from the Guardian and nearly everyone there is a failson who only works there because of daddy's connections. PHE should be contract tracing everyone who was in that Uber for the next two days but said journalist probably didn't ask about that.

Still that and the fact they still apparently haven't found half the people sitting near the guy on the easyJet plane from France means im rapidly downgrading my expectations of their competence.

Look out for a big rear end cluster three weeks from now in London.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

It's still hard to tell and nobody has firm figures yet, in large part because it's impossible to believe the numbers China is putting out and most cases are there. It's looking like anywhere from 2-20x as deadly as the flu and maybe a bit more contagious but a lot of people don't have symptoms worse than a bad cold.

R0 estimates go as high as 7 (aaaaaaaaaaa) but most i've seen are closer to three. Incubation period is all over the place but most cases seem to be under a week.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1

if it becomes a proper pandemic it's not the end of the world we can rule that out at this point but it has the potential to bring even developed countries health systems to their knees by the sheer amount of people that require hospitalisation. The economic effects are also difficult to estimate because of how interlinked the modern world is.

Overall, nobody really knows yet!

Saros fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Feb 14, 2020

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Myriarch posted:



It's just a chocolate bar with peanuts that now has ice cream. Kinda disappointed, I thought 'slab' was a descriptor, not a brand reference

Peanut slabs are god's gift to your taste buds and I won't have this slander in the thread about virus plumes.

Like, there's a reason this new ice cream mashup thing was top of the news they are just that good (also NZ news is the most small town vibe imaginable).

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

The Glumslinger posted:

Yay, apparently my company's CEO doesn't believe in WFH, so we all keep going into the office

:guillotine: is too good for some people.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

GolfHole posted:

heres a stupid question

what are the BENEFITS of covid?
are any brave scientists doing the real research??

Staggering amounts of money is being funneled into vaccine technologies which will be useful against things that are not coronavirus once this is all over.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

GolfHole posted:

but the story i hear from people in pharmaceuticals is that this has basically offset the research and logistics of multiple other projects to the point it will take 20-30 years to recover the industry

I'm in the biz and to give a serious response to a not so serious question vaccine & anti-infective research was previously maybe half a percent of pharma R&D worldwide despite still being one of the most onerous disease burdens. It just isn't a profitable field compared to basically any other therapeutic area. Even now the money rolling in is still a bare fraction of pharma spend so while some projects may be delayed or cancelled that will largely be down to the worldwide economic downturn not Covid stealing all the money.

Just as an example if the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine is approved and works it will be the first ever approved Adenoviral vaccine and it's hard to overstate how big a deal that is for future development.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Mithaldu posted:

As someone who has no idea what that means at all, it would be nice to see it stated how big of a deal it is at all ... and why.

Super short version is that you can use a harmless engineered adenovirus as a vaccine vector & delivery method. It is engineered to express the same surface features as whatever pathogen you are targeting (Covid, Flu, etc) and the immune system generates antibodies that will be effective against Covid etc. As a vaccine vector it's been a goal for creating modular vaccines for decades but nobody's ever quite gotten it working. If it could be perfected you could theoretically have adenoviral vaccines designed to work against multiple infections, universal flu vaccines and even potential Malaria vaccines (a huge huge deal, a Malaria vaccine has eluded science for a very long time now) all with a safe technology that can be rapidly and easily delivered even to the most remote places.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

unpacked robinhood posted:

Any pointers for KN95 masks in europe ? Amazon is a deluge of bullshit.

Look for local suppliers for industry that also do online orders, most have legit FFP2 disposables in stock. If you are in the UK shoot me a PM and I can reccomend some.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

It's quite possible the Russian vaccine is a knock-off Oxford/astrazeneca one because they stole all the data from it and there's suggestions it's also an adenoviral vaccine.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

So you made about four dollars an hour without even accounting for wear and tear on your vehicle and any other extraneous costs.

It really doesn't seem worth it tbh.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Illuminti posted:

I've been seeing info like this getting posted around and frankly it's seriously sticky info that I'm sure will embolden people to not give a poo poo about lockdowns or masks. I have yet to come across a convincing counter argument.

As an example there have been German studies showing that 78% of people who contract it (including asymptomatic) have some sort of heart issues from infection. About half of people who suffer moderate symptoms or symptoms severe enough for hospitalisation have long term fatigue issues.

As for wave 2 I can't cover the US easily as it's so varied but the pattern across Europe is that numbers go up as young people get it, it spreads further but doesn't cause a lot of deaths for 6-8 weeks after the initial rise. Then you see an increase in deaths as it branches out into the population, remember it takes usually 10+ days from infection to hospitalisation and up to a month to death.

We also are much much better at treating severe cases now and testing is much more widespread so less people are dying and a higher % of people who have it are actually being detected.

In the initial wave only a tiny fraction of people who had it could get tested, usually the ones sick enough to be in hospital. For the UK specifically it was probably 10x or even more actual infections as positive tests.

Saros fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Sep 22, 2020

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

It's not just any one thing in the UK so theres isnt something we can point to and say "this is it."

Firstly your data source for hospitalisations ends 7 September, a full two weeks ago, it also misses Wales, Scotland and NI for a chunk of recent data because of reporting issues. If you look at more recent data there is a sharp uptick in hospitalised cases since start of september (400 at start, 1500 now) and it's important to remember it often takes weeks for this data to filter through to stats pages like the gov.uk one.

Secondly despite pubs etc opening in july the summer allowed outside dining and people's initial cautiousness did a lot to mitigate spread, however the 'eat out to help out' really seems to have knocked back peoples level of worry and now as the weather goes to poo poo we will see people inside a lot more with the associated spread.

There is also no indication that we have exhausted the vulnerable population, just look at the numbers of deaths and cases compared to the 70+ population, all of whom are vulnerable. Care homes etc seem to be doing better at shielding and isolating this time around which also helps enormously (in march/april the UK gov was pushing to discharge covid positive patients into care homes to free up hospital beds which had predictable results).

Basically there is no reason to believe the disease will be less deadly a second time around despite the delay in deaths which can largely be explained by proportionately more young people catching it, better treatments, data lag, more tests/less actual cases and its pretty ghoulish to just throw your hands up and say that because some buisnesses closed we just have to accept a shitload of dead and crippled people because lockdown is too hard on the mighty dollars.

Saros fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Sep 22, 2020

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

xtal posted:

There's a lot of money in studying the cold, it causes tens of billions of dollars of economic damage. But I concede that coronaviruses aren't the only causes of colds, either.

To the point about SARS. I don't doubt you, but that suggests that people stopped working on a vaccine because of a quiet period between recurrences, when that would be the best time to work on one. If they're demonstrable idiots, is now a good time to start listening?

SARS is gone and likely isnt coming back. All the money dried up and the vaccines were largely abandoned because :capitalism:

Your vaccine timeframes are what you could expect in a normal situation, fast even for that but the key part is most of these vaccines currently under development are awash with literally unprecedented (for vaccine dev) government money to prepare manufacturing and distribution before the safety and efficacy of the vaccine is proven so that once it's okayed they can immediately start distribution of stocks already on hand.

Finally vaccine mediated immunity is different from that caused by an infection, just because one might only last 6 months has no real bearing on the other. This is one reason vaccines are often given with later booster doses which can get around this flagging immunity.

Vaccines already exist and indeed the various Russian and Chinese ones are already undergoing limited distribution, there are off the top of my head at least three major vaccines by western companies which will be ready for regulatory submission well before the end of the year and you can bet the agencies won't drag their feet unless they are properly poo poo.

Saros fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Sep 22, 2020

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Anonymous Zebra posted:

If we wait for the vaccine to be ready for everyone we are looking at schools/colleges being shutdown for perhaps years, businesses that are barely getting by dying, the continued social isolation being experienced by millions of people that are doing the right thing lasting for years instead of months, and a serious lack of funding for most social programs due to a collapse of tax revenues. However, I did tell you that I wanted to NOT depress you, so here is the thing. We don't NEED to vaccine to start getting our lives moving again. We need to rebuild the way we think about running society, but if we do we can go back to a new normal that involves schools, social interaction, and an active economy. What it will mean is MASSIVE testing, restructuring buildings and classrooms to meet social distancing requirements, masks masks masks, and more massive testing. This is a big ask, but its a possibility.

You said it well but the problem is doing all those things will cost powerful people money. It's generally easier to throw more poor people into the grinder than make systematic changes so a lot of places are just going to do that.

The UK is the prime example of this, pubs and restaurants were reopened before schools with functionally no new measures and the government literally paid people to go dine out. Until this week it was trying to push everyone back into offices because the Tory party is financially backed by people like Tim Martin who owns the biggest pub chain in the UK and others with heavy investment in city center/offices real estate.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Pennywise the Frown posted:

Not sure if this was posted yet but Boris Johnson is getting antsy and is ordering another partial lockdown. From what I've briefly read just mostly encouragement but he said if things keep getting worse then they'll do another shutdown.

COVID 'firepower': Britain imposes six-month curbs against second wave

It's kind of wrong to portray this as a lockdown imo, the actual changes are beyond worthless, only really apply to socialising and even then they are largely ineffective. What motivates them entirely is avoiding being forced into paying for more job retention/furlough and the plan is basically to half rear end a bunch of countrywide restrictions like the forcing pubs to close at 10 (most close at 11 anyway) that don't do anything and then have 'local lockdowns' which just happen to cover most of the country with tighter restrictions. Howver as the government isnt technically stoppping people from working (just making all the non-megacorp buisnesses collapse) they dont have to pay anyone any money!

Profit! (And loads of poor people die but they dont give a gently caress about that).

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Apparently it was 94 total cases with 88 being in the placebo arm.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

poverty goat posted:

They're also headed into summer, so it's largely just their turn for a reprieve, not something magical about how the upside-down peoples have addressed the crisis. Give it a few months.

With summer it's getting easier so the hardest time, the time when they managed almost complete suppression was the winter time where the rest of the world is completely failing. You've got it backwards. By the time NZ/aus summer is over there will be a vaccine available to assist the current containment efforts.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Platystemon posted:

Australia will be rewarded by being last in line for vaccines.

Naw, being a rich 1st world country has some perks.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

legooolas posted:

This is exactly what the UK govt did in August or so ("Eat Out To Help Out") and estimates show that it has caused >20% of all cases since then.

I would say I'm surprised that it's not a larger proportion, bit given that a lot of people went out partying in the last day before our current lockdown I suspect that has had more effect on the recent numbers... Not helped by Wetherspoons discounting beer to 99p a pint then : https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/02/wetherspoons-selling-99p-pints-to-get-rid-of-stock-before-lockdown-13519287/

Actively trying to kill us all :(

I remember when this policy was announced I thought oh thats a mediocre way to prop up restaurant via subsiding takeaways but at least theyre doing something. Then I got to the bit about it being dine-in only.

Just loving lol at eat out to help out, the single dumbest policy in living memory.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Kaiju Cage Match posted:

Is it completely normal to worry about the rona making the jump to U.S. bat populations?

It's already in circulation amongst farmed Mink in the US. I'd be more woried about them.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Chikimiki posted:

Any news on whether the vaccines prevent spreading, or do they only protect the vaccinated person?

We wont know this for sure until the vaccine is distributed but it's vanishingly unlikely it will have no effect on spread at all.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Bape Culture posted:

One of my friends in the UK just polled his friends and 70% are not having it.
If that or anything like it happens country wide, what will happen???
It’s so frustrating what social media has done to us.

Thankfully that's not representative of the general UK population.



However the fall globally due to misinformation is a real concern.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Nextstrain uses the nsaid database which is the go-to but they seem to be lagging behind the actual database a bit, no idea what's up with that.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

zer0spunk posted:

the way this is going i feel like it's a matter of time before we all catch it somehow..i already know i'm going to die of it in the irony period between vaccine shot 1 and vaccine shot 2 for maximum comedy

my 63 year mom is about to get the pfizer shot in her country which is a small bit of relief..told her its at least 6 weeks and a second part before she can continue to do all the things she is already doing, but at least there's some buffer now from idiots killing her! progress. she's nervous about it but i've been trying to shut that poo poo down asap, i'd take it before her if i could to get her to do it with confidence but i think it's going to be the summer for me if we're all lucky on the distribution.

Luckily the initial dose definitely has a decent amount of protection (its hard to tell exactly how much) after the first dose and about 2 weeks so your mum ought to be fine!

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Alan Smithee posted:

does anyone know someone who got it and had disorientation/confusion constantly (so tired they couldnt bother to eat)? Someone I know got it and I wanted to know how serious this is

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html



Its one of the very worrying signs and you need to get this person asessed ASAP especially if they are older.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

The thing that got me was watching the CDC and Public Health England just uttlerly fall apart and fail completely. Before this if you'd asked me which countries were best poised to tackle a pandemic I would have put them both in the top 5 but lol we all know how that worked out.

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Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

LonesomeCrowdedWest posted:

A few random vaccine questions I had. Forgive my ignorance if these are dumb questions, I'm not much of a science guy.

When they say the efficacy is 94 percent or whatever, is the 6 percent that don't get immunity because of a problem with the particular dose or something to do with their personal body chemistry? Like if you had the vaccine done, but didn't get immunity (also I assume the only way to know you didn't get immunity would be if you were infected after the 6 week mark?) would you potentially get immunity from being jabbed again? Or is there just roughly 6% of people that it won't work for at all?

7of7 covered most of it but I'll also note that none of the 8 people who received the vaccine had serious symptoms which is suggestive that it provided them some protection without completely preventing infection. Basically 95% less people who got the vaccine caught covid compared to those who didn't, we can't say exactly why individuals did or didn't but for any vaccine there's always some people it's not very effective for. As an aside 95% is utterly outstanding and we are so lucky the spike protein appears to be such a good target.

Finally we don't yet know if the vaccine prevents only symptoms or if it gives what's called sterilising immunity where people have no symptoms but also are unable to catch and spread the virus asymptomatically.

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