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  OKAY IT'S OVER A WEEK LATE BUT IT'S ELECTION TIME - VOTE ON SATURDAY 8th FEBRUARY Leo has gone and done it lads, the madman thinks he can win. The basics again for foreigners - Ireland is a parliamentary republic where members are elected to the lower house, Dáil Éireann, through the Single Transferable Vote which is basically preference voting in multi-member constituencies to give a quasi proportional result. 157 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are elected excluding the speaker. There's an upper house and a president but really they have the combined powers of a fella shouting at you from the across the street so let's not get into them. The Taoiseach is the prime minister and is elected by the Dáil after an election. No single party has commanded a majority for decades and coalition governments have been the norm for a long time. LAST TIME ON IRISH POLITICS: Enda Kenny led the Fine Gael-Labour coalition to a sound thumping at the polls and a deadlocked result leading to a few weeks of arguing back and forth until Fianna Fáil agreed to allow them to continue as a minority government but watch out any day now we will pull the plug. Then Leo came along and foreign countries noticed for a bit. Also managed to legalize abortion. Then the Brits got at it again so everyone agreed to maybe not have an election until this Brexit thing got ironed out. The government has now decided that it is ironed out enough to have a vote, coincidentally just days before a vote of no confidence in a government minister which seemed likely to pass was about to be tabled which of course is completely unrelated. The current composition of the Dáil:  Who are these idiots again?  Fine Gael: Centre right, liberal conservative, permissive on social issues but love a nice juicy tax cut, traditionally the party of "fiscal responsibility" who find themselves being in the uncomfortable position of the economy no longer being in recession and people actually wanting them to ramp up public spending while they grit their teeth and nod along hoping that's enough. Have managed to stay in power for a little under nine years now, initially in a coalition with Labour and in minority since 2016, which is more than double what they have ever managed before in the history of the state. Seem to actually think of themselves as cool now? Very alarming Leader: Leo Varadkar (current Taoiseach) 2016 Vote Share: 25.5% Current Seats: 47 European affiliation: EPP  Fianna Fáil: Big tent nationalists, conservative liberals, tend towards conservative social values but not afraid of significant public spending (though usually of the unstructured pork barrel variety coupled with generous tax breaks for businesses) and a couple of well stuffed brown envelopes slid under the table. Currently propping up the FG minority government with a confidence and supply deal thrown together after no party could form a straight coalition - FF aren't particularly happy about this but have little to no other option. Somehow have managed to rebuild their voting base after the whole Giant Financial Crisis They Absolutely Caused thing and are now in poll position to oust FG. Have a tendenacy for their leaders to be dragged into corruption inquiries Leader: Yes somehow still Micheál Martin 2016 Vote Share: 24.3% Current Seats: 45 European affiliation: ALDE  Sinn Féin: Left-wing nationalist, Republican, fans of increased public spending coupled with tax cuts for low income earners offset with income hikes for the top percentiles (but don't mention corporation tax). Been having a bit of a rough one with a low level stream of local government defections with allegations of internal party bullying getting thrown around, saw their overall vote share in local council elections last year drop by just over a third nationally and over a half in Dublin where they fell from largest party to 4th largest. Managed to win a vital by-election after this against the odds so may be rebounding? Polls are looking good but they have a tendency to overestimate SF support. Leader: Mary Lou McDonald 2016 Vote Share: 13.8% Current Seats: 22 European affiliation: GUE/NGL  Labour: Nominally democratic socialist but has never been particularly radical, currently curled up in a ball sobbing in the corner. Dealt a devastating blow in the 2016 election falling from 19.4% to 6.6% and being reduced to only 7 seats, their worst result in the history of the state, after coalitioning with Fine Gael and falling into all that austerity. Currently lead by "safe pair of hands" Brendan Howlin who, fair play to him, has at least been attempting to right the party policy-wise and they will be privately hoping to maybe get a few seats. The dread spectre of a leadership challenge from the much despised Alan Kelly still hovers over the party. Leader: Brendan Howlin 2016 Vote Share: 6.6% Current Seats: 7 European affiliation: PES  Solidarity-PBP: How many Trot groups does it take to form a political party? Turns out like 6. A hybrid party that groups together the factional world of Irish socialism, Solidarity-PBP have done pretty decently for themselves and are front and centre in Dublin protests over the housing crisis so will be hoping to hold steady though they experienced a significant slide at the local elections last year that saw them lose more than half their councillors nationally which, if played out in the general, could spell the end for them. PBP's left-wing support for Brexit may float back up to harm them during the multiparty debates. Leader: No Bosses, No Masters 2016 Vote Shate: 3.9% Current Seats: 6 European affiliation: European Anti-Capitalist Left - apparently this is a thing?  Green Party: The one's to watch in this election. Formerly a minor player in the pre-Financial Crisis days who decided to go into coalition with FF and well you can guess how that went. Had a small come back in 2016 when they won two seats but surprised everyone by winning 11% of the vote in the European elections (running to within 6k of SF) and picking up two MEPs while SF only got one, proving their transfer friendliness might see them pick up significant seats if repeated in a general election specifically in Dublin. Also topped the poll in the recent Dublin Final by-election and gained an extra TD. Time for a Green Wave? Sources say who knows Leader: Really, Eamon Ryan? Can they not put that Saoirse woman in charge instead. 2016 Vote Share: 2.7% Current Seats: 3 European affiliation: European Green Party  Social Democrats: Find Labour too broken and fundamentally un-saveable and Sinn Féin a bit flag-hugging and fond of balaclavas? Say hello to the Social Democrats. Now purged from HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED this is an important election for them - their only TDs remain the party leaders who formed the grouping after being established as elected figures and they really need to get at least one more TD voted in on their platform to validate the project (failed to do so in the 2016 election). Did decently in the 2019 council elections, pretty much taking the seats Soldiarity-PBP lost, and are relatively transfer friendly so might squeak one. Leader: Catherine Murphy & Roísín Shortall 2016 Vote Share: 3.0% Current Seats: 2  Aontú: Like Sinn Féin but hate all this "womens rights" cosmopolitan nonsense and think someone really needs to do something to save the wee babies? Votáil Aontú. Formed by an SF TD kicked out of the party after refusing to vote in favour of abortion reform even after the referendum they've basically taken SF and injected a bit more Catholicism, still left leaning and populist inclined just with a lot more prolife banners. Would be surprising if they manage to get anyone elected outside their leader. Leader: Peadar Tóibín 2016 Vote Share: N/A Current Seats: 1 INDEPENDENTS: The humble, often eccentric, independent is an important figure in Irish politics. STV makes it easier for them to get elected and the tendency towards coalition governments means that they can often extract some extremely juicy sweeteners from parties in exchange for their support and often for a government to survive they need to woo this gaggle of malcontents and chancers. With the recent changes in the organizing of Dáil groupings after the 2016 election allowing the formation of a variety of Technical Groups for independents to club together for speaking rights we've seen a couple of factions develop which, while not covering all independents, are useful to keep in mind.  The Independent Alliance: The dream of the Independent - having so much leverage you can actually be given a cabinet position. The Alliance are absolutely NOT A PARTY and have no cohesive ideology to speak of but broadly agree on some vague anti-corruption, anti-poverty guidelines but importantly gave FG the vital votes they needed to win confidence votes when/if FF abstain. Managed to get Minister of Transport out of it so pretty good deal for them. One third of the grouping already announced they won't be running. Current Seats: 3  Independents 4 Change - The Technical Group: ACTUALLY A POLITICAL PARTY but uh not really. Registered a while back for ease of campaigning but functions like the Independent Alliance in that they are extremely loose. Members vary from explicitly left wing to left-leaning populists. Two of their star TDs where successful elected to the European parliament so unclear if they can hold their 2016 result without their personal voter draw. Though they only have one formal TD their aligned technical group in Dáil brings in several more like minded individuals who won't sign up to the formal party structure Current Seats: 5 (1 party member + 4 aligned)  Rural Independents Group: Behold rural Ireland. A grab bag of politicians we are all embarrassed about emblemized by their most prominent TDs, the climate-change-denying-diesel-sucking-shotgun-firing-sure-me-dad-used-to-drive-drunk Healy-Rae brothers - scions of a political dynasty that comfortably takes two out of five seats in the benighted kingdom of Kerry. Also includes Noel Grealish who has more than once accused Nigerian immigrants of all being criminals and Michael Lowry, a man who has been involved in so many corruption and tax evasion scandals all the major parties go out of their way every election to loudly say they will never ever work with him. Current Seats: 7 BUT WHAT ABOUT THE POLLS?  IrishTimes  Behaviour&Attitudes Its.... Happening?? Obligatory HE FIXED THE ROAD
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Jan 23, 2020 13:10
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Posting on the ground floor of this here Ireland thing. Also obligatory @iresimpsonsfans from the last election. 
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Jan 23, 2020 13:21
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Things that have happened so far. Fine Gael posted a video so bad they deleted it and apologised for being poo poo at social media https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1218483930862669824 The forces of evil unite https://twitter.com/gemmaod1/status/1219937699777347585 Former MMA fighter and SF councillor shocks no-one by being a racist and getting suspended from the party after questioning Varadkar's blood loyalty almost immediately after election is called Michael Healy-Rae releases new election song https://www.independent.ie/videos/i...y-38881370.html
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Jan 23, 2020 13:21
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This probably makes Sinn Fein look much cooler than they are.
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Jan 23, 2020 13:22
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Thanks for the thread. I recently moved and had to change my constituency and don't even know if I can vote in this one where I live yet. I don't hold out much hope for how this one turns out either way.
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Jan 23, 2020 13:35
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Also add Saoirse McHugh to the list of people who should be elected along with Gary Gannon imo https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1219998998406291456?s=19
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Jan 23, 2020 13:57
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If this is true (saw it on Reddit), what coke are FG snorting and can I have some? To be fair, it might describe the average FG voter. Not the average first time buyer.
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Jan 23, 2020 13:59
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Thread needs more Miggledy Higgins.
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Jan 23, 2020 14:00
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kustomkarkommando posted:Also add Saoirse McHugh to the list of people who should be elected along with Gary Gannon imo I'm glad she's good and I would personally vote for her, but God the Greens are such a dumpster fire under Eamon Ryan I'm struggling to justify giving them even my third preference.
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Jan 23, 2020 14:25
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kustomkarkommando posted:Also add Saoirse McHugh to the list of people who should be elected along with Gary Gannon imo She's great, you should vote for her. What's the projected outcome anyway? Another FF / FG coalition or is that not happening again? Would SF prop up those 2 or is it one of them plus whatever small party support they can cobble together?
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Jan 23, 2020 14:28
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Miftan posted:She's great, you should vote for her. Most people I've spoken to basically expect FF and FG to swap places, pretty much. The last couple polls gimme hope that SF support might go up a bit to make it a little harder for them, but the polls often overrate SF for some reason, and they're excluded from the debates.
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Jan 23, 2020 14:40
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mehall posted:Most people I've spoken to basically expect FF and FG to swap places, pretty much. But with the expectation that they'd support each other, I assume?
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Jan 23, 2020 14:42
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https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1220119410142318597 This was absolute gold from the debate last night. Its the top story on the Irish Times today, and front page in a couple of the newspapers. The best analysis I've seen is Leo wasn't panicking because he had taken drugs in the past, he was panicking because he couldn't remember what lies he'd told previously about his drug taking. If he'd just been honest and owned it would have been much much better, instead he just comes across panic-y and skeezy. I think we're heading for a FF/Green/LAB/SD government. Not thrilled about the FF part, but its at least a much more left wing government overall than the current FG one. We should actually get some spending on social housing out and infrastructure of it, instead of just more tax cuts for people in the top income tax bracket. Edit: the bookies currently have the seat projections as: FF: 54 FG: 44 SF: 21 Green: 12 LAB: 7 IND/OTHERS: 20 Blut fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Jan 23, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 14:51
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Miftan posted:She's great, you should vote for her. My personal view is that it will be a FF/Green/independent government. SF have recently changed their rules allowing them to enter into coalition as a junior member, and Mary Lou seems to want to be in government. The line of thinking seems to be that by entering government, FF/FG can no longer make the argument that they are unfit for office, which will then allow the party to break into more middle-class circles, which would allow it to become a senior coalition member in a future government. Apparently Varadkar said in the "debate" last night that he was open to a grand coalition with FF after the election, assuming that there are no other ways of forming a government. This was mooted by Martin this morning, surprising no-one. However, the menace of SF in government is part of the reason of the confidence and supply arrangement in recent years, so I wouldn't be surprised if Martin changed his mind after the results are declared. The main issue is that there is no significant third party other than SF for either of the big two to work with. Traditionally, the half party role was filled by Labour, but they show no signs of recovery after 2016 and, if polling holds, will have lost support since that election. They had 7 seats in the last election, and it is likely that that number will be reduced again. The assumption is that the Green Party will gain seats, but I would argue that they will only get around 7 or so. Very unlikely that they will break into double digits unless something significant changes. Then you have the SocDems, who split from Labour and might not hold their seats, Solidarity/PBP/RISE who are left-wing and are saying they will not enter government unless it is part of a broad left alliance. Parties that are more socially and economically alligned with FF/FG are Renua and Aontú, but it's unlikely that Renua will pick up even a seat and Aontú are, at best, only going to hold the seat of their leader, Tobin. The math is difficult, and there will be weeks of negotiating before any government is formed.
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Jan 23, 2020 14:52
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Thanks for the breakdowns, I know answering this poo poo for foreigners can get tiresome sometimes.
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Jan 23, 2020 15:09
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I think a significant amount of people who are posting here also post in the UK thread, where some things need to be explained to us sometimes. All good!
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Jan 23, 2020 15:16
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I thought Renua was gone. The new Greens seem good but Ryan and the older guard are pure shite and they will sell the entire country down the river for token representation. Nothing has really changed with him since the last coalition. It will be a shame if the current realisations about the utter state of FF/FG ends up backfiring into history repeating with another FF/Green poo poo show.
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Jan 23, 2020 15:17
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Blut posted:This was absolute gold from the debate last night. Its the top story on the Irish Times today, and front page in a couple of the newspapers. The best analysis I've seen is Leo wasn't panicking because he had taken drugs in the past, he was panicking because he couldn't remember what lies he'd told previously about his drug taking. If he'd just been honest and owned it would have been much much better, instead he just comes across panic-y and skeezy.
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Jan 23, 2020 15:26
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lemonadesweetheart posted:I thought Renua was gone. Renua have pretty much imploded so I have no idea why B&A still poll for them. Or new crazy enemies are Peter Casey, hedging his bets and running in both Donegal and Dublin, and the infowars alliance of Gemma/Waters - James Reynolds' National Party will be running again as will the Irish Freedom Party (of Irexit fame). Honestly can't see the populist right grabbing any obvious seats. Casey might be in with a shout in Donegal but he's relying on the Inishowen vote which already delivers two TDs (SF and FF) so a third player for that voting cohort in the wider constituency might not work out for him mathematically and once he hits the Dail he'll probably convert into a typical grumpy independent. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jan 23, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 15:56
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Also do we take bets over Simon Coveney launching a heave against Leo if FG slips out of prime position
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Jan 23, 2020 15:58
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Even if they get a majority I could see that happening within 12 months.
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Jan 23, 2020 16:01
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Does this happen in your area? Cork city here, the placards that go up for each politician. Every day the last days ones are taken down and replaced by the next one. Been happening now the last week, the FF, the FG, FF, Solidarity, FF, Labour, FG, all on the same few lamp posts.
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Jan 23, 2020 16:12
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My town has an unenforced but agreed upon by the candidates ban on posters within the town limits. It is nice.
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Jan 23, 2020 16:15
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kustomkarkommando posted:Michael Healy-Rae releases new election song Where does this guy buy his hats? Edit: Apparently it's Quill's in Killarney. https://www.irishgiftsandsweaters.com/gents/hats-and-scarves/ladies-wax-hat-black.html Also, the Irish parliament has a bell to ring in the rounds? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3r8IBlVtys SimonCat fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Jan 23, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 16:19
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kustomkarkommando posted:Renua have pretty much imploded so I have no idea why B&A still poll for them. I legitimately wonder if Casey will get a seat. Losing two consecutive elections has really taken the wind out of his campaign. I think he is most likely to get a seat in Donegal, but even then I'm extremely doubtful he will manage it. As for the Infowars Alliance, it's next to impossible for them to manage a seat. For the most part, they are seemingly supported by Yanks and the English Right. They're also hurt by running in Dublin, which tends to send liberal and left-wing TDs. Also, with regards to Renua, they are seemingly getting financial support from somewhere. Seen some posters go up in my area, Louth, as of today. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Jan 23, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 16:23
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The complete, and ongoing, electoral failure of the populist right wing nutjobs in Ireland warms my heart. For all the milquetoast centre-right problems with FF/FG they're both still absolutely miles better than the far right nutjobs that have made serious in-roads in democracies all across the world over the last decade or two. Or even just the new breed of center-right extremists in the rest of the Anglosphere like in Oz/the UK / the US.
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Jan 23, 2020 16:40
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A+ thread title.
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Jan 23, 2020 17:07
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Not sure if I've written this right, but am I right in thinking that Ireland's not experiencing the same kind of populist/nationalist resurgence as the rest of Europe because FF and FG never stopped being nationalist parties, especially after they joined the EU? Like, they successfully married Irish nationalism with pro-Europeanism, so there hasn't been any sort of backlash against the EU?
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Jan 23, 2020 17:39
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Skull Servant posted:Also, with regards to Renua, they are seemingly getting financial support from somewhere. Seen some posters go up in my area, Louth, as of today. https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/0807/1067463-state-funding-political-parties/ Venomous posted:Not sure if I've written this right, but am I right in thinking that Ireland's not experiencing the same kind of populist/nationalist resurgence as the rest of Europe because FF and FG never stopped being nationalist parties, especially after they joined the EU
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Jan 23, 2020 17:57
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Venomous posted:Not sure if I've written this right, but am I right in thinking that Ireland's not experiencing the same kind of populist/nationalist resurgence as the rest of Europe because FF and FG never stopped being nationalist parties, especially after they joined the EU? Like, they successfully married Irish nationalism with pro-Europeanism, so there hasn't been any sort of backlash against the EU? I mean there has been backlash against the EU, talk of negotiating a beef deal with Argentina has enraged farmers, probably more just that the Irish public is quite aware of the relative fragility of the Irish economy after experiencing the historic recessions of the 80s and beforehand and the half hearted flirtations with autarky that haunted the post-war period. I think if you try the "leave the eu and go our own way" line sinks like a lead balloon as people realise how much we profit from leveraging our position within the EU to strengthen the economy - this is also why even SF are reluctant to talk about the generous corporation tax regime in much detail. As a caveat people are still passionate about Irish neutrality and the idea of a European Armed Forces would be heavily rejected I feel
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Jan 23, 2020 17:58
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Guavanaut posted:He should have just claimed that he did all the drugs on that one day a few years back when they were all legal. I'm glad that Ireland can do stupid law tricks at least as well as the UK can.
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Jan 23, 2020 17:59
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I'm expecting FG to lose this election, broadly speaking. "We have money now." and a lot of people will benefit from FF in charge of the purse strings. SF/FF could get into bed. I also expect the greens to do reasonably well, the likes of Saoirse McHugh being the face of a younger, more environmentalist green party. Honestly I'd like the greens to hoover up as many independent seats as possible. I'd really like it if Leo could not be in charge anymore. He loving sucks.
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Jan 23, 2020 18:55
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Based on no real evidence I feel like there'll be another election within a year. I can see FF being the biggest party, refusing to do a coalition with either FG or SF and either failing to form a coalition with enough other parties or cobbling one together that falls apart over some stupid poo poo.
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Jan 23, 2020 19:18
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Firstly, amazing thread title. Second to the question of Irish populism. There are dickheads trying it. And depending on the part of the country you are in you can get some traction with a bullshit "we have to be careful with immigration or our culture will be damaged" dog whistles. But so far, they are joy succeeding like is happening in the rest of the Western World. Gemma O'Doherty is using a lot of that, but she is making no traction thankfully. All that being said, Ireland is not immune to this garbage. And every so often you can see a surge in racism. But I think the flirtation with populist racism is not working. As for the Greens I think they could get a very big bounce from earnest people who want to do something about the environment. But I'm cynical enough to think that if Greens get in it will be as coalition partners who will capitulate almost totally to the major party. Full on "we passed the measures to reduce social welfare payments in exchange for a ban on fireplaces." In short Irish Lib Dems. From the news today Leo has floated a FF/FG coalition. Which suggests he's bracing for heavy loses. Martin has rejected this which suggests that FF are expecting to be in power on their own.
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Jan 23, 2020 19:47
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There's a lot of theories to why Ireland hasn't had a far-right party in recent years. Some hopefuls attribute it to us being more open to people who immigrate into the country because of our own history with being emigrants. Some argue that SF have taken the role of protest vote and that because they organise across a border that they cannot come across as racist nationalist. An evolution of this argument is that because FF and FG are both centre-right with no real left or centre left party (except Labour), the electorate are more open to something different, which, in this case, is social democracy. I think all these arguments have merit, but I personally believe that it is very difficult for a hard Right party to argue their social politics in Ireland. While racism is a core part of any right wing party, they also wed themselves to wider social conservatism - a call back to tradition, an attempt to evoke a bygone era that we should return to, homophobia, sexism, ECT. These arguments don't scan well in Ireland because we never had a roaring economy, Celtic Tiger notwithstanding, we never had a period where people weren't emigrating because of the poor condition of the country. In many of our lifetimes we have seen the impact of strong social conservatism, contraceptives not being widely available until the 90s, homosexuality being criminalised until 1993, the divorce and abortion referenda. Add that with the repeated scandals with the Catholic Church, the Tuam Babies, child sex abuse... This is anecdotal, but my grandmother, in the space of a few years, went from approaching RTE reporters on Cardinal Seán Brady to supporting the repeal of the 8th Amendment, specifically decrying the amount of control the Catholic Church had. I would argue that because these parties don't have much to offer besides racism that they aren't succeeding. Sure, people will agree with what they are saying, but they are a long way off from actively supporting them in any way. With regards to the EU, I think people here are overwhelmingly in support of it because of how obvious it is that membership has helped the country. We can see the funding in motorways and in our towns. Because we travel we see the benefits of visa-free trips and the common currency of the Euro. People aren't afraid to criticize it, the beef protests and the possibility of a European Army threatening Irish neutrality are examples of that. Overall, people seem to believe that the benefits outweigh the negatives and that we have a platform to actually address the things we don't like in the EU Parliament.
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Jan 23, 2020 20:21
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I think the sheer weight of Dublin has an impact on the development of a traditional far-right. When your major multicultural metropolitan centre takes up half the countrys population and economy, and probably more in easy commuting distance, I think its difficult for a traditional style far-right party to take hold. Cant really make that urban elites vs silent majority argument. Plenty of room for other kinds of far right ideologies to grow though.
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Jan 23, 2020 20:59
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The words 'catch yeself on' are right wing kryptonite. Double effective with an insult afterwards. Triple if in a culshie accent.
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Jan 23, 2020 21:07
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I'm also hesitant about this kind of talk because it has a tendency to stumble into the "sure we're not really racist" which is an absolute loving lie. I frequently find the level of casual and explicit racism that gets chucked around specifically about black people, and especially African immigrants, to be really loving high compared even with other European states and the amount of people who honestly dont see the problem baffles me. I mean remember that time Enda Kenny called Patrice Lumumba the n word in a "joke" and absolutely no one remembers this
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Jan 23, 2020 21:14
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You're right, immigrant taxi drivers get a lot of abuse, only learned out here recently there are parts of Cork they won't even drive into due to the runners and/or attacks they will get.
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Jan 23, 2020 21:27
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Irish people are, without a doubt, racist. All you have to do is look at how popular Casey was in the Presidential campaign after his comments on the Traveller community. You also hear a lot of people complaining about immigrants coming in and going on social welfare. I've personally been able to tackle this with recounting my experience trying to get back into the system after two years outside the country. It was a difficult process only made possible by decent personal record keeping by myself and my mother, and I am a full Irish citizen. It seems to come from ignorance, with most talking themselves back when challenged. I have seen an uptick in people saying the State ignores it with Nigerian people because they don't want to be seen as racist. On the flip side, however, I've also seen people laud over immigrants because of their work ethic. This is mostly said about Indian and Asian immigrants, but I have also heard it about black people specifically in the HSE, which I find a little odd considering the general racism around black people in the rest of Ireland. Ireland has a weird and complex relationship with racism. Remember Gerry Adams tweeting the n word?
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Jan 23, 2020 21:38
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