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Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


I'm expecting FG to lose this election, broadly speaking. "We have money now." and a lot of people will benefit from FF in charge of the purse strings.

SF/FF could get into bed. I also expect the greens to do reasonably well, the likes of Saoirse McHugh being the face of a younger, more environmentalist green party. Honestly I'd like the greens to hoover up as many independent seats as possible.

I'd really like it if Leo could not be in charge anymore. He loving sucks.

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Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


lmao if she posted that here she'd have eaten a probe. Not surprising to hear hes hard to relate to, everything I've heard about the guy leads me to believe he's a coke snorting sociopath.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


tbh I wouldn't imagine anyone outside of construction has a reasonable estimate of what it costs to build a house anymore, and I mean, just build it. Not wantonly profiteer off of the sale of materials, loans, leases, labour and land. It'll easily turn into 180K per domicile.

The whole idea of "building houses people need, to live in" i.e. the council house is so far removed from the public consciousness as to be entirely abstract. Not to mention the creeping meaninglessness of sums of money. 6.5 billions how much is that? How many years of labour is that? What percentage of GDP is that? How does one access such a sum of money?

Can we build public housing while maintaining the ever increasing rents and price of houses? The answer is no. The bubble needs to pop at some point. The problem is the people who lose out are the core economic motivators of the nation, cops, school teachers etc all the mortgage holders who will be up to their necks in debt if the price goes down. It's one giant ouroboros.

I think I just talked myself out of voting this year.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


these are some loving crazy numbers man, no way it goes that well for the sinners on polling day

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


EmmyOk posted:

I’m glad I don’t live in Willies constituency because I’d vote for him :negative:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4ure_GSHw

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


V. Illych L. posted:

FF-FG coalition propped up by independents does seem like it'd set the stage for a full-blown SF breakthrough as a main party of government

It would finally take the mask off and openly admit that civil war politics are dead and that Ireland has a left/right divide just like everywhere else. so yes.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


I know the type play acting as Countess Markievicz. No one ever cosplays the O' Rahilly bleeding out in a gutter.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Because that would be another 4 years of SF in opposition, which could possibly lead to a SF majority govt next election. Particularly as the economy could collapse basically any day now.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Blut posted:

Howlin's a good guy, but dull - and completely associated with the austerity years. He was never more than a placeholder.

Labour desperately need someone young, energetic and media friendly to help revitalize the brand. Someone like Stephen Donnelly of his IND/SocDem years basically, but a bit more lefty/working class. But where they're going to get someone like that is another question...

If they keep the rule that it has to be a sitting TD Ged Nash is probably the best of the bunch, but mightn't be regarded as secure enough in his seat. Other than that its probably O'Riordan, who is good but a bit dull, and a bit too focused on champagne socialist/identity politics. Hes the favourite with the bookies currently. Alan Kelly is the only other person realistically in the running I think, but hes only ever come across as an egotistical insane person to me. I'd love to hear thats wrong mind you.

I could see Gary Gannon jumping ship to labour and taking the reins later in his career. Amalgamate them and the SDs, they are treading the same water. Shiny new young fella and, uh, the party of James Connolly.

Nothing depresses me quite like the irish labour party.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


SF wouldn't be the kinds of people to overplay their hand, not at this point. I could see them sitting out completely.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


FF have plenty of lefty/nationalist ideology floating around in the parties past, by no means a left party historically but they can't claim to be ideologically opposed to SF.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Labour are blairites. They are centre right.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


lemonadesweetheart posted:

Labour's track record doesn't hold up and you'd be foolish to take any of what you just said at face value given that history.

This is the problem with Labour. Believe me man I'd really love to be able to support Larkin and Connollys party but they just don't hold up.

They have been responsible for some positive legislation especially things that the FF/FG old boys wouldn't touch, but all their victories are thirty years ago or more. They haven't been relevant since New Labour sprung up across the Irish sea.

Southpaugh fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Feb 18, 2020

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Having looked at the tweets in question ISF should stick to doing what they've always been doing. No one is joining the provos based on some memes. They are jerking their knees because they have been monetizing the page and want to keep doing so.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


its fierce bougie the only people I know who went on trips abroad were from either public schools in some parts of Leinster or private school kids. We were lucky to get as far as the burren, for educational reasons.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


LMAO. Might aswell let everybody know that they represent the same thing.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


The two cases in trinity are the big catalyst imo, thousands move through there daily, nevermind work there. The most central location I could think of in Dublin. The only thing to be done is let it run its course, the no big gatherings thing lets it run its course at a more measured pace. But I think the misinformation and general scaremongering going around is very destructive to society. The media are happy to frighten and traumatize people just to be talking about the new big global worry.

I'll really want to see some good studies saying that all this disruption/shutdown was worthwhile in a years time otherwise it was the media making hay out of nothing as they have dozens of times in the past.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


icantfindaname posted:

So is there going to be another election or what?

lol not anytime in the next six months I imagine.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Marenghi, Condolences.


Blut posted:

Thats terrible news Marenghi, I'm sorry to hear.

Its probably not really going to help you much, but this is some very positive corona news that might lift the mood of the thread (and possibly you, even slightly):

A working group of Italian doctors from the Italian Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Higher Institute of Health) last night released the first detailed report on covid deaths so far in the country. Its got a couple of very interesting highlights:



Heres the age ranges of deaths: essentially non-existent for under 40s. 9 total people under 40. Of that 9, they tested 7 for underlying conditions, and 100% had them - either debates, obesity etc. Not a single healthy person under 40 has died from it.

And here are the overall deaths, across all age ranges:



This is part is absolutely key. Only 1.2% of Italian deaths, across all age ranges, had no underlying health conditions (diabetes, COPD etc). It looks like its not only just not killing young people, its not killing healthy old people.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_26_marzo_eng.pdf

It seems like this is pretty huge, positive news. Once it gets wider media coverage I'd imagine we'll see a lot of pressure to lift quarantines for the not-at-risk sections of society.


I can't see this sort of news having an effect on social distancing right now. Just because the younger or healthier people didn't die doesn't mean they weren't left permanently harmed by the illness, scarring on the lungs etc. Not to mention the fact that they still took up hospital beds. No one can get this disease, because the point of failure is in health services ability to accomodate the ill.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


I was genuinely delighted by the terminator 2 reference.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Is the UKMT in freefall? have avoided it since the Roni got going. Ireland is accused of antisemitism anyway due to wide spread support for Palestine.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Yeah hes just wing nut who has (had?) a newspaper column, has a kid with sinead o connor? Weirdo catholic guy.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Glaring angrily around the place is what you do when you're a laughing stock.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Personally hated him since junior cert english when the teacher would trot out himself and kevin myers as examples of good writing lmao

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


The Question IRL posted:

Well anyone who thinks that Kevin Myers is a good writer has questionable taste in English. And is probably a misogynist too.

He was also the religion teacher, so.


This political fuckacting by FG/FF is going to blow up in their faces. The likes of O'Cuiv or Michael Ring aren't diehard neoliberals like the Leo and Michael. Plenty of backbenchers won't be happy about this.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


FF/FG coalition plus rotating partners government isn't going to last four years. No its all up in the air at the moment. We can't go back to hardline austerity after this. New social contract pls.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Economy to contract 10%, 22% unemployment after the restrictions are lifted. (Worth mentioning this is probably a heavily massaged figure - it has been since '08 atleast.)

Eoghan Murphy on the news saying airbnb stock can't go back to the short term let market. Dublin City Council trying to get 25 year leases on apartments for homeless people. FG atleast gearing up to pass the most popular of SF policies.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


My problem with AK47 is that he appears to have no political philosophy whatsoever. He appears to be a standard issue neo-liberal, his education is in eCommerce and I've never heard him speak a word I've agreed with or felt was relevant in some way.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Too much competition in the Top Bastard leagues in FF/FG.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


All for the sake of people driving to the one that's nearest to them. They probably also expect a high volume of orders. I don't know who can't live with McDonald's, but I pity them.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Unsurprising news about FG popularity - lotta people think they've done very well, but again its just the brits and yanks making us look good by comparison. The anglosphere loving sucks.

Looks like this government formations going ahead - it won't last though. Not when they all actually have to be in the room with one another. FG popularity is gonna nosedive when wave two is in full swing at the start of Autumn.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Detective Gardai are not supposed to carry for no reason. Gotta sign out of the gunsafe, sign your declaration etc. It's very strange to me that he was carrying a firearm. Maybe he'd been at the range earlier in the day and was still strapped for whatever reason. It's very suspicious.

The Question IRL posted:

Honestly, I know it was controversial to say, but I was critical when Mark Hennessy was shot dead.

Like that really seemed like a situation that got badly out of hand, and then the spin comes into it. Don't get me wrong, what Hennessy did was awful.
But at the time the guards say that they couldn't rule him out for every unsolved disappearance for every woman in Ireland.

Nah man you're entirely correct for questioning that situation, the official story is they had been told he had a firearm in the car, and that he wouldn't show his hands. (He was attempting to self harm.)

Detective drew on him, fired, hit his shoulder, bullet hopped off his clavicle and made its way through centre of mass, which killed him. Personally, I don't think the cop was going for a kill shot. But, there was three gardai and civil defence on the scene when he died, they could have kicked the poo poo out of him. The whole thing stinks as he was known to gardai and they liked him for other disappearances.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Failed Imagineer posted:

I'm not really calling you out on this in particular, but the concept of a "kill shot" is some Americanized hero-cop fantasia - if you shoot somebody with a lethal or "less-than-lethal" weapon then you can reasonably expect to kill them, for the exact kind of reasons you describe in that case. Not saying that cops shouldn't avoid headshotting their victims, just that this kind of language is insidious and pervasive

Thats fair - I'm guilty of only being imprecise with my language. I do not think the cop decided to summarily execute the man. Which is to say I do not think he intended to lethally wound him, when I say kill-shot I mean a cop kill shot, which is rounds delivered to centre of mass, not a headshot. Handguns are actually hard to hit things with as I'm sure any gun goons drive by-ing the thread could attest to. So no I don't need to be told off, and I agree with you. He should not have fired. He could have been manhandled out of the scene.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Some older gay rights guys have stupid and or hosed up opinions about things. It's the reason you didn't have someone like norris front and centre for marriage equality. Dinosaurs like that we're useful for getting rich people to think about gays as something other than subhuman, because they were educated to the same extent and of the same class. They can be safely ignored and treated as an embarrassment at this point.

This whole reactionary wave we've seen is comical, but we shouldn't forget that they are fascists and must be treated as such. This anti-gay pedophile false equivalency is an old tired tactic and will be refuted again.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Shoehead posted:

Am I nuts or does the 3 tiers of Covid relief seem like they should be back to front? I went back to work the other week but not before they cut my covid pay, which.. uh must be due to an average over the year or something because I usually make over 300 quid a week easily. But surely people who were making less before the pandemic have a greater need now?? Why do people missing out on better paid jobs deserve MORE help?

Tbh this would bother me anyway even if I was in a good spot but as it stands if we all get locked in again I might be in trouble. Wear your masks for Shoehead pls

This poo poo is all bad news and it's not a matter of if we're getting locked down again but when, they've extended the covid payment to april next year but cut the actual amount down to just above Dole levels. It's bad lads and it's going to get very bad.

The porous border between Britain and Ireland and the fact that Americans can still just fly here means we're going to keep eating poo poo for a long time yet.

McHugh is right to leave the greens, she was always far further left than the party traditionally is. The greens are a loving joke and always have been. You can't be effectively green and capitalist in 2020. We know the environment is negatively effected by wanton wasteful capitalism and there are no two ways about it.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


lemonadesweetheart posted:

the biggest issue has always been there isn't a cohesive enough leftist group in the country. There are lots of shitheads who want FF or FG in power. I would say that there are fewer who want them in power together. There are also a sizeable number of greens who are okay with the current situation as long as they can get some small concessions from the scum in power so they can go on deluded they're making the world a better place. They'll gently caress over the poor and rural folks to get it because they're liberal pieces of garbage. Saoirse was kidding herself and so are any left leaning greens that this isn't the reality of what that party is.

I have always felt that leftism in this country is high jacked out the gate by the Labour party and completely neutered by their acceptable opposition position within the political establishment. Everyone else is an unrealistic trot and Labour is the party of conolly so shut the gently caress up and get back to work.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Eighties ZomCom posted:

Can't be that much into left wing politics if they keep allowing bargain bin Connor MacGregor back into the party.

He's not even bargain bin, and yes he's clearly what we would describe as right wing in beliefs and opinions, and yet that is the sort of person who votes sinn fein and wants a socialist ireland (for Irish people probably). Its a complex issue and doesn't really map well onto politics outside ireland without getting into niche politics i.e. strasserism.

The left face much the same situation in Ireland as the corbynites faced in Britain, an entrenched political/media class who have disparaged and demeaned the left for generations without any meaningful pushback. The overton window is firmly centre right in Ireland and there is no discussion of "regressive" political concepts like socialism, but theres plenty of space to move to the right as we are seeing with the new parties popping up.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Lol the vintners association is going to pull down the government.

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Schools are just day care to keep workers working. It's a foundation of Liberal capitalism so it has to be seen to happen. Even if they are closed again in a month and a bunch of kids die/grow up with ruined lungs.

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Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


Blut posted:

Schools have been open across Europe in responsible, well run countries like Norway, Denmark etc for months with no problems. Its pretty insane expecting them to be closed indefinitely, destroying children's education for potentially years.

No such thing as a responsible well run country under neo-liberal capitalism.

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