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Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


SolusLunes posted:

also, more seriously, I thought you were reconsidering your ruggan vote and shifting towards pmush. Why haven't you?

I was willing to hear him out. But after finally sitting down to do the proper work he sounded full of bullshit again.

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Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

for someone who says "similar" when they really. mean "different" maybe you should stop believing im scumslips

Haha fair point. I was slamming out a post between shower and getting ready to walk out the door to work while getting tugged at by kids. Your choice whether to believe me or not.

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


At this point I also feel like the group should thunderdome ME and PMush. Posting this much to push someone is a little exhausting and I don’t really want to go into another full day having to repeat all of this. Please vote out PMush or I. I hope you choose PMush but at this point the thread gets a ton of info from either.

SolusLunes
Oct 10, 2011

I now have several regrets.

:barf:

Bifauxnen posted:

I was willing to hear him out. But after finally sitting down to do the proper work he sounded full of bullshit again.

He sounds like town Steak going off on thirty tangents, except he can't quite reconcile all of them in a neat and pretty way, and I think that's giving scum inroads to discredit and lunch him.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


if you are town and PMush is scum just mad about you pushing her for something "wrong" congrats on making it look so wrong I wanna vote you instead

this scales thing seems pretty rubbish

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.
I think scum ruggan would have stepped back and said something about already making the case. Constant pushing ruggan reads town to me.

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.

Ruggan posted:

Maybe a good idea for future days: single-staff suspected scum to a project. If that project makes progress, they are confirmed town. If the project does not, they are confirmed scum.

Remember, scum can't work on projects. So we could reveal up to 4 people a day (if everyone else focuses on a single project and we single-staff 4 folks).

Also, damnit!

Maybe #3 will get through to you.

Scum will lie about where they are working. The point of collecting people's work claims is to find discrepancies of the claims, not blame claimed for lack of work.

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

if you are town and PMush is scum just mad about you pushing her for something "wrong" congrats on making it look so wrong I wanna vote you instead

this scales thing seems pretty rubbish

Ok, vote me. Or PMush. I hope you choose PMush but let’s stop swirling.

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.
Namely, we put 1 person on a project, a scum sabotages the project making it look like the assigned person didnt work.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Ruggan posted:

Ok, vote me. Or PMush. I hope you choose PMush but let’s stop swirling.

I already did!!

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Amnistar posted:

Also, damnit!

Maybe #3 will get through to you.

Scum will lie about where they are working. The point of collecting people's work claims is to find discrepancies of the claims, not blame claimed for lack of work.

False positives would be possible. False negatives would not be.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before

Bifauxnen posted:

god you feel exactly like last game where your scum game was just "ugh, meh, bleh, mafia is harrrrd guys"

And then I contributed more as the game progressed. Which is what will happen in this game too

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.

Ruggan posted:

Maybe a good idea for future days: single-staff suspected scum to a project. If that project makes progress, they are confirmed town. If the project does not, they are confirmed scum.

Remember, scum can't work on projects. So we could reveal up to 4 people a day (if everyone else focuses on a single project and we single-staff 4 folks).

You did not rule out false negatives in your plan ruggan!

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Amnistar posted:

Namely, we put 1 person on a project, a scum sabotages the project making it look like the assigned person didnt work.

Sure but it still feels like a meta strategy. Just feels broken and optimal.

You could further optimize by organizing ties. A single scum joining would cause a choice by CC would it not? And it could ruin the even match elsewhere?

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Amnistar posted:

You did not rule out false negatives in your plan ruggan!

see this is the poo poo I'm talking about

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

see this is the poo poo I'm talking about

You think with the volume I’m posting some of it isn’t off the cuff brainstorming?

Sorry my posts aren’t polished with the degree of peer review you seem to expect. I’m not scum, after all...

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


b-minus1 posted:

And then I contributed more as the game progressed. Which is what will happen in this game too

in which you are playing your "meh, bleh" scum game again? :v:

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.

Ruggan posted:

Sure but it still feels like a meta strategy. Just feels broken and optimal.

You could further optimize by organizing ties. A single scum joining would cause a choice by CC would it not? And it could ruin the even match elsewhere?

The tie thing probably works because it helps us check if people are working on the sub projects they claimed they were.

Nothing to do with progress or not.

This, of course, assumes that scum have no way to target someone on the same project and negate their submitted actions, or something like that. We dont actually know how scum sabotage works.

Relying on progress itself to tell us who is scum is less so. Everyone claiming to work on a project can be telling the truth and we still don't make expected progress because people not on the project via claims interfere.

SolusLunes
Oct 10, 2011

I now have several regrets.

:barf:

Ruggan posted:

Sure but it still feels like a meta strategy. Just feels broken and optimal.

You could further optimize by organizing ties. A single scum joining would cause a choice by CC would it not? And it could ruin the even match elsewhere?

Would it cause a choice though? Does scum have to choose one of the two projects or just sabotage in general? If it's choose, well, they could choose the same project as the one the person working there has claimed, so it wouldn't trigger a tiebreaker.

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.
Now I am second guessing myntown read as you double down on the flawed idea after icalled you out on it and said you looked town for pushing it.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Ruggan posted:

You think with the volume I’m posting some of it isn’t off the cuff brainstorming?

Sorry my posts aren’t polished with the degree of peer review you seem to expect. I’m not scum, after all...

well in the case of PMush you put a lot of certainty into something really fiddly you could be easily misunderstanding, and appear to have, in fact, misunderstood. And you pushed it even farther based off some assertion about scale that doesn't even make any sense to me if you had your soothseeing score revealed as super low.

*waves hands around and talks in an extremely "you had to have the BIIIIiIIIiiiiiiiiiiiig salad!!" voice*
Ooooh, how did you ~KNOW~ your soothsaying was low??

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Amnistar posted:

Now I am second guessing myntown read as you double down on the flawed idea after icalled you out on it and said you looked town for pushing it.

Cool. Vote me out then and become a target tomorrow. I’m not doubling down, I’m brainstorming in thread. You can try to frame it in your scummy way but when I flip town I hope that becomes transparent to everyone else.

Amnistar
Nov 6, 2008

I am a wizard, not a poet.

Ruggan posted:

Cool. Vote me out then and become a target tomorrow. I’m not doubling down, I’m brainstorming in thread. You can try to frame it in your scummy way but when I flip town I hope that becomes transparent to everyone else.

I pointed out the problem and you said you understood them the next day posted without even ack owledging the problem...

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

well in the case of PMush you put a lot of certainty into something really fiddly you could be easily misunderstanding, and appear to have, in fact, misunderstood. And you pushed it even farther based off some assertion about scale that doesn't even make any sense to me if you had your soothseeing score revealed as super low.

*waves hands around and talks in an extremely "you had to have the BIIIIiIIIiiiiiiiiiiiig salad!!" voice*
Ooooh, how did you ~KNOW~ your soothsaying was low??

I’m looking forward to chatting about it post game!

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Ruggan posted:

Yes, but I was given a raw number, unlike all my other building focuses. I have no idea how my number relates to being average.

If this is the way mithross is distributing that info then claiming “average” is totally a scum slip.

hey Ruggan, if your score was revealed to be low how come you "had no idea" how it relates to being average

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Amnistar posted:

Namely, we put 1 person on a project, a scum sabotages the project making it look like the assigned person didnt work.

Yes, I think this is a possibility.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

CCKeane posted:

KB would you vote ruggan?

Nope. I was suspicious early on, but their current opinions on other players are making me think they are town. Won't vote.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Bifauxnen posted:

hey Ruggan, if your score was revealed to be low how come you "had no idea" how it relates to being average

mafia edit:

Ruggan posted:

Where did I get it from? I got a number for my sooth and it was very low.

hey Ruggan, if your score was revealed to be very low how come you "had no idea" how it relates to being average

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

King Burgundy posted:

Nope. I was suspicious early on, but their current opinions on other players are making me think they are town. Won't vote.

Will you vote anybody other than PMush?

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

mafia edit:


hey Ruggan, if your score was revealed to be very low how come you "had no idea" how it relates to being average

Because average implies in the middle. To know where the middle is means you must have some idea of the minimum and maximum.

To know low, you really only to need to know where the minimum is and a low estimate on the number of possible options. It’s a reasonable assumption that 1 is probably a scale min, right? And it’s also probable that there are at least 5 possible values based on Average, Below Avg, and Above Avg being descriptors? So I think there are a few possible values that may indicate to someone that their score is low without knowing the range. You need much less info to claim that than you do to claim average.

Correct?

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Scale could be 1-5, 1-10, 1-100, 1-1000. Some values allow you to claim low regardless. There are no values that allow you to ballpark medium or high unless you were told you were average or above average to begin with.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

CCKeane posted:

Will you vote anybody other than PMush?

If you command it, but I will be very disgruntled. Since that means this Bs continues for another day.

Having said that, also feeling extremely good about lux being scum, so that would be a fine alternative.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Ruggan posted:

Because average implies in the middle. To know where the middle is means you must have some idea of the minimum and maximum.

To know low, you really only to need to know where the minimum is and a low estimate on the number of possible options. It’s a reasonable assumption that 1 is probably a scale min, right? And it’s also probable that there are at least 5 possible values based on Average, Below Avg, and Above Avg being descriptors? So I think there are a few possible values that may indicate to someone that their score is low without knowing the range. You need much less info to claim that than you do to claim average.

Correct?

but you have an idea how it relates to being average. You're below average. whatever scale you thought your combat stats were on, you thought it didn't go down to the kind of minimum you got in soothsaying?

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Ruggan posted:

Scale could be 1-5, 1-10, 1-100, 1-1000. Some values allow you to claim low regardless. There are no values that allow you to ballpark medium or high unless you were told you were average or above average to begin with.

in every single one of these varied ranges, getting a score near the bottom of the range does nothing to prove you're suddenly operating in a different one

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

but you have an idea how it relates to being average. You're below average. whatever scale you thought your combat stats were on, you thought it didn't go down to the kind of minimum you got in soothsaying?

I never meant that the two scales didn’t have the same minimum. I bet they do. I meant the two scales likely had very different max values. Maybe by a factor of 2x or 3x. That’s all.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


"ooh looking at my stats here I think we're operating on a 1-1000 scale range"

"what?! a 1?! That doesn't fit into my 1-1000 worldview for some reason?! My world is shattered and disproven somehow, how could you even possibly think your building score relates to the world of combat, PMush"

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

in every single one of these varied ranges, getting a score near the bottom of the range does nothing to prove you're suddenly operating in a different one

That’s correct. I made assumptions based on pure speculation for what game setup would look like in a reasonable world and the info I had. I can refine my hypothesis when I have more info tomorrow.

I still think claiming average isn’t something a reasonable non scum would do and indicates the presence of more information that PMush assumed was reasonable to be common knowledge but wasn’t.

Ruggan
Feb 20, 2007
WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!


Bifauxnen posted:

"ooh looking at my stats here I think we're operating on a 1-1000 scale range"

"what?! a 1?! That doesn't fit into my 1-1000 worldview for some reason?! My world is shattered and disproven somehow, how could you even possibly think your building score relates to the world of combat, PMush"

This is exhausting. If you think I’m bullshitting then there’s nothing I’m going to do to convince you otherwise.

Again I feel that many factors indicate PMush and Mona as scum buds. I would vote for either of them but feel PMush will reveal more if they flip scum and advocate for that. I don’t plan to vote for anyone but those or Amni today - ideally PMush though.

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


Ruggan posted:

That’s correct. I made assumptions based on pure speculation for what game setup would look like in a reasonable world and the info I had. I can refine my hypothesis when I have more info tomorrow.

I still think claiming average isn’t something a reasonable non scum would do and indicates the presence of more information that PMush assumed was reasonable to be common knowledge but wasn’t.

ok this makes more sense to me than all the earlier stuff you were pushing based on assumptions and pure speculation, and then saying what you perceived as her slipups made her "super obvious" scum while your constant overstatements and misstatements aren't supposed to do the same...

just goddamn dude

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Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


ugh now I don't know what to do cause Ruggan's sounding a bit more legit after getting beat down enough to get some sense beaten into him and PMush's "oh no, am I bad at everything?!?!?" always sounded scummy regardless, but goddamn I don't feel like following any lead laid out by mister "similar means different" over here

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