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after a hard day wfh it's time to hit the pub
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Mar 6, 2020 16:51
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2024 16:05 |
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fart simpson posted:the uk's plan seems to be basically opening its arms to embrace the virus, just getting it over with as fast as possible???? i haven't heard the uk plan, but sweden is also taking a lot slower an approach, and i can't say i can argue with the logic. notably not closing schools as the loss of personnel in e.g. health care and elder care would risk destabilizing things for the people at most risk, while kids in themselves are low-risk. also a bit more dubious bits like not banning gatherings of less than 500 people, not closing e.g. restaurants and bars, and so on, as the projection is that the outbreak will either way last long enough that they don't expect it to be possible to maintain a hard lockdown for the duration. in the end the response is designed by a large number of experts on the subject matter, and i'm a dumb computer toucher, so i have no idea how much sense it makes. i can however see that it is true that there is no way the swedish government can maintain a police state full lockdown for 4 months. e: sweden does have two big advantages working for it though: very sparsely populated, and we send all our elders off to die in nursing homes at the earliest possible convenience. so might also be a matter of what suits the place. Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 12:36 on Mar 16, 2020 |
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Mar 16, 2020 12:27
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gabensraum posted:but if they're doing it right shouldn't it peak later (and lower)? yeah, i'd expect a later peak if things go well. but we are in kind of uncharted territory, so remains to be seen.
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Mar 16, 2020 14:09
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Broken Machine posted:i wonder if it's going to affect school in the fall too. a vaccine is probably at least six months away, more likely a year to 18 months yeah, and then we get to a point where we are arguably denying a lot of kids a useful education. very little is obvious here.
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Mar 17, 2020 23:10
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canceling a lot of travel today, was going to be an interesting year. oh well, there's always 2022.
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Mar 23, 2020 15:27
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CRIP EATIN BREAD posted:our governor is on tv telling us we cant go outside right now man, i struggle to believe that the added health benefits over just not meeting up with people will outweigh that of people getting a bit of fresh air and exercise. but fingers crossed it turns out for the best.
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Mar 23, 2020 16:27
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sweden has now banned ordering at the bar, have to have table service from now.
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Mar 24, 2020 14:00
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having opened the coffee, wfh and pics threads next to each other i now think there should be an autoban for posting a thread with the title starting with the name of the forum.
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Mar 24, 2020 21:46
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do take care of your mental state mostly everyone. most of us are extremely unlikely to die from covid-19, to a point where the mental health effects are a problem to be just as careful with. this might mean taking a bit more time to get drunk and slack off, but may also mean less.
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Apr 1, 2020 16:41
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they are sure to have *some* effect, but while it is easy to go "might as well if it helps at all" it'll be another bit of fatigue, and as likely as not a lot of people will take the face mask as an excuse to be more careless in other ways. or possibly it helps because it gives the appearance of doing something, re-energizing people a bit. either way not a bad time to throw some things at the wall, we'll see.
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Apr 4, 2020 10:07
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sweden is seemingly flattening out (deaths a bit high, but hospitalizations are ticking down a bit without ever having gone really out of control) without a lockdown. so i don't think it is that optimistic to expect lockdowns in similar countries (demographics/preparedness) to actually wind down a bit in the not too distant a future.
Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 10:13 on Apr 13, 2020 |
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Apr 13, 2020 10:07
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some pretty good news out of stockholm, in that not everyone is dead and early antibody tests (with very small samples granted) suggest that immunity is in the double digits. not enough for much in the way of herd immunity, but makes the curve-flattening easier and easier.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:41
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lancemantis posted:plz stop using the phrase "herd immunity" in that context sorry, i thought that was the appropriate use?
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Apr 20, 2020 21:52
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so what term do you use for when a population is statistically made quite safe from a disease by the same mechanism but the cause is wide-spread infection instead of vaccination?
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Apr 20, 2020 22:17
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come on, don't be a hysteric about words. vaccines are very far away and this mechanism that should apparently stay unnamed will have a huge impact even in the context of extremely complete lockdown scenarios. it needs to be tracked and understood, and it is in that process helpful if it can be named
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Apr 20, 2020 22:21
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i mean, being in sweden i already live in a neoliberal hellscape ruled by brutes (the social democrats) set on killing us all by never having a hard lockdown to start with. my own impending death makes it pretty easy to look at the statistics pretty dispassionately and enjoy the bits that look kind of ok. i honestly really doubt that any amount of politics, especially online forum posting politics, will prevent the us from effectively taking the same route shortly. sorry.
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Apr 20, 2020 22:42
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smoka is cool and has reregged near as i can tell, so w/e. i'm going to enjoy some posting-anime-into-probation in coming days i am sure.
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Apr 21, 2020 21:33
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that certainly appears to be a trustworthy high quality news source you're linking there. in other headline news there's apparently a cat that has stolen 50 pairs of gloves.
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Apr 22, 2020 11:02
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really the worst thing about the coronavirus is that it's driving some terrible posting. case in point.
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Apr 28, 2020 12:29
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finally gotten back to a sane working rhythm having moved out to the cabin (well, "cabin") in the woods where i have enough room to actually have an office for working in. was wearing real thin working and relaxing in the same space. i still only put in maybe 4 effective hours a day, but i think that is about my pace even when properly at the office for 9 hours.
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May 14, 2020 17:22
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qirex posted:remember all psych med research is based on people undergoing regular therapy, just giving them meds and not having them in regular counseling is a dice roll, like that antidepressant side effect where people finally get enough motivation to attempt suicide this is a good point, and in fact it is entirely believable that medication that just noticeably changes your state of mind (even if it isn't in itself an improvement) would help combined therapy. just to help break bad cycles and behaviors by forcing you into a new starting point. but tbqh everyone should be a bit careful being down on meds if they're not a doctor/expert. data may be poor, but i am pretty sure the average yospos opinion is based on worse information and knowledge still.
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May 15, 2020 10:28
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ShadowHawk posted:Yeah the only reasonable way to do this is by excess mortality stats that's still going to need a lot of expert work to figure out, as actions taken have had a lot of other effects as well. a notable example is that in sweden, despite the lack of a hard lockdown, the seasonal flu which was just getting going was by all appearances fully stopped within a week or two from social distancing precautions.
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May 23, 2020 13:55
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Penisface posted:i am talking about something like this https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c yeah, but where the crisis has had secondary effects on people health it should be adjusted for to make the numbers truly fair. the fact that i can't go skydiving when seriously ill from covid should not be counted as an edge in survivability.
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May 23, 2020 15:43
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Eeyo posted:yeah there are fewer traffic fatalities, fewer deaths from other communicable diseases, but maybe more deaths due to delayed treatment or people shy of going to the hospital. plus whatever covid throws at us. it’s definitely a useful exercise and the fact that you can see clear excess deaths means that this is an extremely serious disease. i guess what excess deaths gives you is “given the boundary condition of X covid-19 cases at the start of the crisis, what is the total effect of the interventions undertaken by a country”, which is clearly pretty useful. sure, my only point is that it will be a pretty active research area trying to get the numbers as precise as possible. day-to-day one has to run with whatever numbers one has, but it is probably 5 years before we get really thoroughly put together country-spanning studies that will tell as complete a story as we can.
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May 23, 2020 16:37
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abigserve posted:An unreasonably high amount of people would accept 3% or more of the world dying to save their personal finances, and this transcends class. Like I want to say it's more common in rich people but I have no evidence to back it up at all i don't think it really is more common in rich people no, as there are a lot more poor people, and for many any reduction in income works out much worse than even a 3% chance of them themselves dying.
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May 26, 2020 10:39
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yeah, was hard to know at the start, but seems at least school closures likely were a mistake. it does reduce spread a little bit, but that is offset by trapping a bunch of what may be essential (whether labeled as such or not) personnel at home.
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May 26, 2020 12:44
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Blinkz0rz posted:except for that thing where covid might trigger a systemic inflammation in kids that looks a lot like kawasaki disease roughly 20 kids per year die in traffic incidents on school buses or walking to school in the us. at a certain point it is a matter of statistics.
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May 26, 2020 13:48
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Arcteryx Anarchist posted:as has been the case pretty much the entire time I’m just not going to judge anything because we won’t really have a chance of knowing for quite a while and will still have to sort through the political manipulation of it sure sure, i would not flippantly decide to open schools were i in a ruling position either. just commenting that as far as the info we currently have goes schools do not appear to be much of a problem area. which is great news of true.
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May 26, 2020 14:27
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Blinkz0rz posted:we know absolutely nothing about the mid to long term effects of covid great, do keep your kids safe. do take care making too many decisions about unknowable far-flung future side effects though, as you'll be in antivaxx territory very quickly. we will absolutely not know the long-term effects of a covid vaccine once it rolls around, especially as the only candidates likely to make it in the next few years will be of types never before approved for human use.
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May 26, 2020 14:31
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a few months is fine obviously, since the year is over anyway. no populace will stand for a 100% lockdown for 18 months though, and to keep some obviously less necessary stuff locked down (e.g. public gatherings, restaurants, pubs, etc.) you have to try to use the available information to relieve pressure where possible. some rational credibility in the process etc. i am not a decision-maker and either way promise to not kill your kids though.
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May 26, 2020 15:17
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while this is true:Sagebrush posted:you definitely don't need a phd to do literature reviews. it is also one of those things that takes a bit of practice. doesn't take super-long, but you need to not get discouraged with how slow going it usually is when you start out. it might help morale to remind yourself that it is difficult mostly because a ton of research writing it awful, on purpose, for traditional reasons. one just needs to learn the tropes of the awful nonsense you can safely skip. Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 22:01 on May 26, 2020 |
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May 26, 2020 21:58
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DELETE CASCADE posted:if there was a solid plan from the government with clear milestones and we were making good progress toward it, things might be different. but if people ask "hey so uh when can i leave my house again" and the consensus response is "uhh idk maybe never lol" then you are going to get a huge number of fat entitled americans who think "well gently caress that, these people don't know what they're talking about, i'm having a barbeque with all my closest friends" i think milestones is too much to ask for, but what the government *should* manage to do is say "this part is going well", "this part needs work", "current worries are xyz", and so on, with some consistency day to day. obviously no one really knows the future here, and it'd be transparently stupid to pretend they knew. as such what is needed is clear indications that they are monitoring, analyzing, and understanding the situation day to day, with an eye towards a future society working a bit more like pre-covid society. e: that said, all respect to everyone who is working a bit harder to at least not be part of the problem. it is not exactly trivial even given good circumstances.
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May 26, 2020 23:41
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this is really really troubling. and very visible even on these forums. and the infrastructure to deal with it is incredibly trash pretty much everywhere.
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May 27, 2020 16:08
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echinopsis posted:
are you planning to add anything to your line of reasoning here or is the entirety "i don't trust people when they say @jack is a shitstain, and having dismissed that point of data i know nothing, so i will arbitrarily conclude that he's perfectly ok"?
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May 27, 2020 20:03
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echinopsis posted:I was referring to my beliefs about him before this conversation we had here ok, cool, i was just confused that you (who i'd peg as one of the more even-keeled posters overall) seemed to dig yourself in on a sort of weird stance. sorry for the catty post. i *believe* that jack is a truly terrible person, but i am *sure* i've never heard anyone make a good case for him being better than the default level of libertarian billionaire app-era tech ceo level suggests (and even that is enough to not make him be very ok). Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 20:39 on May 27, 2020 |
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May 27, 2020 20:35
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also there is nothing really obvious to do even given a lot of money. giving it to the poor who are suffering badly in this situation would probably be about the best, but giving all your money to the poor was always a good and noble option that absolutely no one took.
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May 27, 2020 21:51
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Sagebrush posted:i'm a big fan of the songs that disney villains sing in the movies. (except moana, the crab song sucks). wtf, the crab song is like the best one?
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May 28, 2020 11:01
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mask recommendations is an interesting datapoint. clearly they directly help a bit (the effect seems to be pretty small, but anything better than nothing), but also they make compliance with rules entirely visible to everyone. which can be great if you have a majority in compliance (the remaining few are under social pressure to comply), but bad when compliance is poor, as the clearly visible fact that few people are complying with recommendations discourages everyone. so without a mask recommendation you may have more success advising distancing in some cases (e.g. potentially much of the us), despite a mask recommendation obviously being excellent for much of asia.
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Jun 17, 2020 09:12
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Jabor posted:Really you just have to actually enforce your quarantines instead of letting people skip it just because they really really want to you should probably even in this situation be happy that you live in a country without the resources to actually police the actions of the entire population simultaneously. despite it putting the pandemic response to a great extent in the arena of personal responsibility.
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Jun 17, 2020 09:15
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2024 16:05 |
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Stereotype posted:I disagree that the effect seems to be pretty small. Why do you think the effect is small? Places with high mask compliance have overall lower infection rates. actual research has historically struggled to establish a large effect. Jabor posted:it's entirely reasonable to enforce a quarantine on people entering the country to minimize the chance of them carrying unknowingly carrying the virus, which is what new zealand does in general except if you ask really nicely oh yeah, didn't read the post well enough, just closing borders is perfectly doable yeah. i thought you were clamoring for police marching the streets to keep people in their homes, which would help a lot but requires a capability which is a bit scary to have. Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 10:14 on Jun 17, 2020 |
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Jun 17, 2020 10:11
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