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A-H has to be next, so I'm going for Germany again.
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Apr 18, 2020 04:18
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Danaru posted:In hindsight the surly dickhead routine works better over the microphone and doesnt work at all through text Luckily i remembered you were A-H so it was worth a chuckle, although I'm wondering now if you can manage to survive and how.
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Apr 18, 2020 06:41
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CirclMastr posted:Blind Sally is a Jerk Truly sage advice.
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Apr 18, 2020 07:10
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tears betting slip I like that the Atlantic war has now turned hot; it seems Germany will either get gutted or have a chance to play kingmaker. Turkey's slow, stealthy crawl to the world stage is a thing to behold too.
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Apr 18, 2020 08:46
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Yes, I'm looking forward to the eventual Romance of the Three Kingdoms scenario, where England, Turkey, and Russia all try to seduce each other into helping each other win.
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Apr 18, 2020 08:57
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A-H out next. Not even really a question, I'm afraid.
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Apr 18, 2020 10:48
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I'll go with Turkey out next. Having no experience with the game and judging by the graph at the end of the previous update, both France and Italy were one of the larger nations before getting dogpiled. Turkey's steady growth puts them in prime position to be considered a potential threat by the superpowers UK and Russia rather than just a minor inconvenience like Austria-Hungary and Germany. Turkey being caught in a corner might prevent this. Time will tell I suppose.
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Apr 18, 2020 11:35
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Since everyone else is making the obvious bet, I'll go with Germany for next eliminated but only if you give me 3:1 odds.
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Apr 18, 2020 18:29
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I am going to continue my vote for Britain next out, and Britain overall winner. This will keep going until one of them pays off
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Apr 18, 2020 19:10
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AH next out, then Germany.
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Apr 18, 2020 22:05
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Austria-Hungary next out. The obvious choice though it could go otherwise.
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Apr 19, 2020 01:51
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Yeah my money is on AUSTRIA HUNGARYnext
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Apr 19, 2020 13:42
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i am behind on an update. get your bets in! i'll probably have a couple updates in rapid succession tonight. also stop betting for Germany!
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Apr 19, 2020 18:05
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Spring 1910  Just defensive moves and position for the most part here. Russia prods the North Sea but is bounced. The UK does advance into the Norwegian Sea for this turn. Germany keeps to itself, but does provide support for the UK's fleet. Germany F Bel S Nth A Ber S Mun F Kie H A Mun S Ber  Similarly, lots of positioning in the Mediterranean. UK mobilizes much of its forces back to Iberia. The Ottoman's, meanwhile, make landfall in Italy. A-H stands to lose an SC. United Kingdom A Bur - Gas F Edi S Nat - NRG F Eng - Mid F Nat - Nrg F Nth H A Pic H A Pie - Mar F Rom S Tus - Tyn F Tus - Tyn  For the rest of the board, Russia stalls an attack from A-H. But the Ottoman Empire moves in from behind to take Trieste. Austria-Hungary A Boh S Gal (inconsistent; support cut) A Gal - Ukr (failed) A Ven - Tyr A Vie S Gal (inconsistent; support cut) Russia F Bla - Rum (failed) A Bud - Vie (failed) F Den - Nth (failed) F Nwy - Nrg (failed) A Rum - Ukr (failed) A Sil - Boh (failed) F Stp north coast - Bar A Swe H A War - Gal (failed) Ottoman Empire F Alb S Ser - Tri F Apu - Nap A Bul - Ser A Con - Bul F Ion - Tyn (failed) A Ser - Tri F Wes - Gol  No League chat this turn.
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Apr 20, 2020 23:09
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So did the attack on ukr fail because the two supporting units were attacked?
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Apr 20, 2020 23:20
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ilmucche posted:So did the attack on ukr fail because the two supporting units were attacked? They weren’t supporting an attack, they were supporting a defense (compare to the UK order F Rom S Tus - Tyn) which, as noted next to the support orders, was inconsistent (because Gal attacked).
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Apr 20, 2020 23:37
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ilmucche posted:So did the attack on ukr fail because the two supporting units were attacked? Yeah, what Dav said. Supports that use the square symbol are for defenses; supports that use the circle symbol are for attacks. In effect, the assault on Ukraine was a 1v1 between Romania and Galicia.
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Apr 21, 2020 00:21
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That said, if the supporting units both were supporting the attack -- not that either unit in question could in this case since you need to be able to move to a province for supporting an attack against that province to be legal -- then both supports would have been cut by the Russian moves and the attack on Ukraine would still have failed. Short version of Diplomacy turn resolution is: 1: Determine if any support is cut or invalid. Support is cut if attacked from any province other than the province the unit is supporting an attack against. 2: Determine if any unit bounces. You bounce if you attack a province with either a defense or another attack of equal support to yours. Bouncing results in the unit holding in its originating province, but unlike holding a bounce invalidates any defensive support given to the province the unit is in. 3: Determine if any unit is displaced. A unit is displaced if after the previous two steps a unit ends up holding in or supporting from a province that does not have sufficient defense support to withstand any remaining attacks. It's not super complicated, but since all moves are resolved simultaneously there are fun edge cases that can all happen at once: for instance, you can survive being attacked by two stronger attacks from other provinces by having them bounce of eachother before displacing you. You'll usually gently caress up the resolution of some nasty combination of orders in a home game, so the judges and other programmatic resolution stuff is pretty nice in preventing the usual spiteful diplomacy from being interrupted by spiteful rules lawyering.
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Apr 21, 2020 07:34
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Turkey is expanding quickly. +1 or +2 is likely, but it could also go +1/-1 if it messes up the Tunis+Naples guessing game with England. England (if it wants to be mean) can get +1 or +2. They can take Belgium, and there's a 50-50 guessing game between Tunis+Naples. Russia is stuck defending, which is really bad for them. If they can't find an edge into Austria soon, then they are likely to fall behind England and Turkey. (You know you want to sail into Ankara...) Actually, Russia is in an excellent position to betray Turkey and win because of it. With all 3 initial supply centers exposed, and Turkey overextending, they require a build to be able to defend their homeland. A stab that convoys an army into Constantinople spells disaster for Turkey and would probably grant victory to them (unless England gets to 18 first). In contrast, if Russia does not betray Turkey, then they probably can't win. Russia cannot expand in either direction, while Turkey can gobble up the rest of Austria and later, Italy because England cannot properly defend that area if Turkey gets more builds. I'd guess that Turkey wins if Russia fails to betray.
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Apr 21, 2020 08:42
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Fall 1910 Back-stabs aplenty, this turn!  Austria works with Germany and Turkey to make a play on Russia. Germany advances into Silesia, while Turkey grabs both Romania and Budapest. Russia also takes this turn as an opportunity to attack Turkey, sliding Ankara.  And good news for Russia: They are clear to retreat into Serbia, taking it for their own and dulling the combined attack. Austria-Hungary A Boh S Ber - Sil A Gal - War (failed) A Tyr - Tri A Vie S Tri - Bud - A Boh Germany F Bel S Nrg - Nth A Ber - Sil F Kie - Den (failed) A Mun S Ber - Sil + F Ber Russia F Bar - Nrg F Bla - Ank A Bud - Gal (failed; retreat: A Bud R Ser) F Den - Nth F Nwy S Bar - Nrg A Rum - Bul (failed; retreat: A Rum R Sev) A Sil- War (failed; retreat: A Sil R Pru) A Swe - Den (failed) A War - Ukr Ottoman Empire F Alb - Ion (failed) A Bul S Ser - Rum F Gol - Tyn (failed) F Ion - Tun (failed) F Nap H A Ser - Rum A Tri - Bud + A Con  The action in the Mediterranean doesn't result in any unexpected changes. Lots of movements are blocked. UK retains Rome while the Ottoman Empire takes Naples from Austria-Hungary.  Up north, some movement is made. UK makes it into Skagerrak, while Russia consolidates forces in the Norwegian Sea. No SCs traded up here. United Kingdom F Edi S Nrg - Nth A Gas - Spa A Mar S Gas - Spa F Mid - Wes F Nrg - Nth F Nth - Ska A Pic - Bur F Rom - Nap (failed) F Tyn - Tun (failed)  With all the SC changes, Austria-Hungary is the only nation to take a hit this turn, though it is only -1. The Ottoman Empire takes that gain for themselves, while Germany finally uses that extra build it has been sitting on. League of Nations Chat posted:<Russia> Alright, can we all stop and figure out who's on who's side anymore? Because I for one have lost track.
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Apr 21, 2020 17:26
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Dang, this turned into Russia vs everyone else. The main winner of this exchange is England. It's slightly weird that Turkey chose to build another army instead of a fleet in Constantinople. If they really do want to fight Russia, a fleet provides more flexibility in that region. Austria and Germany might be able to turn their fortunes around too. Austria no longer has to face a unified Turkey+Russia and can align with someone else. Germany can work with England to reclaim Denmark (though they should be careful about a stab from England or a Russian fleet slipping behind their front).
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Apr 21, 2020 20:33
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Whelp. I, uh, guess one or both of RT did not want to win this game. At least the other read the stab. I admit I am deeply curious to find out what shenanigans lead to this outcome later, because I'm pretty sure you're both going to regret falling out on this particular turn. The collapse of the juggernaut is good news for England who is likely to at least hold both their fronts and maybe make some gains depending on move specifics and how alliances shake out. Germany and Austria likewise benefit if they can stay cooperating. Beyond that I don't know what the hell at this point, but I'm assuming the telegrams are flying fast.
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Apr 21, 2020 21:03
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I assume the UK and Germany have finally come to some sort of agreement. If not, the UK can't handle three people running at them at once. Turkey's also in a delicate state, but mostly because this is really the first time the Russian front opened up and the UK is also looking to potentially want a fight. A-H is dying and idk if it has a chance to escape its fate in the next year. Germany is in a better position comparatively, but only just as it serves as the big buffer between the UK and Russia and were they to disappear, the front would drastically expand and likely weaken them elsewhere. The only real issue is that Germany doesn't have an escape plan. Warsaw is exposed atm which might make a good SC to potentially nab, but it increases their own front against Russia and A-H. Heading south does the same, but there's not a AH SC in immediate adjacency
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Apr 21, 2020 21:26
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NeoRonTheNeuron posted:
This would probably have been a better move. There's been a few times in this game where I wish I had built the other unit. There's land to take so I need armies to support inland, but there's the big old Med there too so I need fleets.
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Apr 22, 2020 02:55
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Spring 1911 This round Russia is put on the defensive as they fight to maintain their separated forces, the North Atlantic is a mess of stalled turns, and the Mediterranean sees more combat as UK and Turkey come to blows.  Just some repositioning happening here. Russia maintains a hold of Ankara, though the Ottomans are now in place to retake it in fall. Meanwhile, Austria helps the Ottomans in Serbia, and Germany helps Austria into Warsaw. Austria-Hungary A Gal - War A Tri S Bud - Ser A Vie - Gal (failed)  Little movement in the Atlantic, though not for a lack of trying! Germany, the UK, and Russia all vie for new positions, but only the UK is able to break through and make landfall in Norway. Germany F Ank - Con (failed) F Ber - Bal (failed) F Kie - Den (failed) A Mun - Ber (failed) A Sil S Gal - War Russia F Ank- Con (failed) F Den - Bal (failed) F Nrg - Nth (failed) F Nwy - Ska (failed; retreat: F Nwy R Bar) A Pru - War (Failed) A Ser - Gre (failed; no free provinces to retreat to, unit is burnt) A Sev - Rum (failed) A Swe - Den (failed) A Ukr - Gal (failed)  The Ottoman Empire doesn't attempt to block the UK from entering Tunisia, though they maintain hold of Naples. Furthermore, they are in position to take Rome in the fall, consolidating their forces on the Italian peninsula. United Kingdom A Burh H F Edi - Nrg (failed) A Mar H F Nth - Nwy F Rom - Nap (failed) F Ska S Nth - Nwy A Spa H F Tyn - Tun F Wes S Tyn - Tun Ottoman Empire F Alb - Gre (failed) A Bud - Ser A Bul - Con (failed) A Con - Smy F Gol - Tyn F Ion S Nap F Nap S Gol - Tyn (support cut) A Rum - Ukr (failed)  No League of Nations chat. Though I can assure you that the secret telegrams are flying fast and furiously...
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Apr 22, 2020 07:47
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Woah... the move I am most impressed by is Germany's bounce with Russia in the North Sea after England vacated it to enter Norway. It probably just worked out that way, but it could've been a ridiculously good prediction. Because Germany failed to actually enter the North Sea, they can maintain good relations with England. It's better if both sides can avoid even being in the position to backstab. Granted, they probably wanted to go there for the sake of Denmark, but I still think it's a cool interaction. Norway, Sweden, and Denmark are a big guessing game. England is not likely to keep Norway, but if they are challenged, then there's a chance that Denmark or Sweden is claimed instead. - Russia 0/-3. They lose Serbia, Warsaw, and likely one of Norway/Sweden/Denmark. If they guess well or poorly, they could go 0/-2 or 0/-4. They need to make deals. If they can get Germany or England to turn on each other or Austria to turn on Turkey... - Turkey +2/-1. Gain Serbia. They have to take Rome with the Tyn fleet. Unfortunately, doing so puts them in a 3v3 standstill that also frees up all of England's armies in Iberia. - England +1/-1 or +2/-1. Gain Tunis, lose Rome. Could gain Norway or Sweden, but it's more likely than Russia will let Denmark go to Germany. - Germany +1/0 or 0/0 because of the Denmark situation. - Austria +1/0 because of Warsaw. (Germany will probably help defend it.) NeoRonTheNeuron fucked around with this message at 08:18 on Apr 22, 2020 |
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Apr 22, 2020 08:13
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Hit hard with work this week! But the game continues. Will try to have an update today. Of not definitely tomorrow morning by the latest--and hopefully I can catch the thread up over the weekend.
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Apr 24, 2020 20:43
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Fall 1911  Action up north! UK supports Germany into the North Sea, and Germany also slips in Prussia. Russia mounts a strong counterattack, though, retaining both Norway from the UK and Warsaw from Austria-Hungary. Germany F Bel - Nth F Ber - Bal F Kie - Den (failed) A Mun - Ber A Sil - Pru Russia F Ank - Con (failed) F Bar - Stp north coast F Den - Ska (failed) F Nrg - Nwy A Pru - War A Sev - Mos A Swe S Nrg - Nwy A Ukr S Pru - War  Some changes in the southern half of the map. No SC pick ups for A-H, but no losses either. UK loses Rome but picks up Tunisia, so there's that. The Ottoman's take Serbia, but don't dislodge Russia from Ankara. It's the Ottoman Empire with the only gain of the turn! Austria-Hungary A Tri - Vie A Vie - Gal A War S Sil - Pru (support cut; retreat: A War R Lvn) United Kingdom A Bur H F Edi S Bel - Nth A Mar - Pie F Nwy - Swe (support cut; retreat: F Nwy R Bar) F Rom - Tyn (support cut; retreat: F Rom R Tus) F Sky S Nwy - Swe (support cut) A Spa H F Tun S Rom - Tyn (support cut) F Wes S Tun Ottoman Empire F Alb - Ion (failed) A Bul - Con (failed) F Ion - Tun (failed) F Natp S Tyn - Rom A Rum S Ser A Ser S Rum A Smy - Arm F Tyn - Rom + F Con  Retreat-wise, both UK and A-H's retreats have the potentially to stymie further Russian defensive movements.  The Ottoman Empire builds a new fleet in Constantinople. No League chat this turn.
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Apr 25, 2020 06:19
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Wow, good job Russia! Only going -1 is amazing considering the situation. It's still dire, but at least you have more chances to negotiate your way out of this mess.
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Apr 25, 2020 06:33
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As everyone's started to devote their efforts to push Russia down, UK's power waxes and there's not much anyone can really touch at the moment. Germany's left their Western front effectively open for the UK to come in if they so please. The opening up of the Balkans has also shifted the balance of power for the Ottomans despite a Russian navy occupying Ankara. Their fortunes are a bit more easy come, easy go but only because of how volatile any gains made in the Balkans are
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Apr 25, 2020 08:59
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The med is very likely about to stall hard now that Turkey gave up TYN, as both powers are now on a classic stalemate line. Turkey can't hold Rome, but with 4 fleets a Turkish ION - nap - apu line can't be attacked, and same for the tun - TYN - rom line for England. Maybe something might happen in the next two turns: Turkey might ferry an army to apu, or England might manage to get their Piedmont army there if Turkey decides to let them. I think most reasonable moves will lead to permanent deadlock, though. There's a minor question mark if England can manage to break through the Piedmont-Venice bottleneck in any useful way. I think probably they don't have the armies or the position, especially with Spain holding and Turkey about to flood the Balkans. That one army in Piedmont might manage something. The east is looking good for Turkey, as neither Russia or Austria are likely to stop them from doing the things they want to. I'll grudgingly allow that if Russia dies and Germany manages to stave off an English solo in the north then the stab will have worked out, but it still seems to me that not stabbing and just juggernauting west would've been much easier and safer. The north is I don't know what the gently caress. Assuming the med stalemates, and it probably does, then England needs 8 SCs in the low countries, Germany and Scandinavia for a solo. England doesn't have their usual northern fleet advantage so that's on paper hard, but if Russia collapses in the south and Russia and Germany continue to slapfight in the north then a good stab on the German heartlands could cement a rare solo before the Germans can get their defense in order. It'll depend on who the hell gets any SCs out of that rat's nest of fleets around the Baltic, and what the English expeditionary force on the continent gets up to. Not moving the Spanish army this turn might ultimately sink the solo, which would be amusing to I guess everyone not playing England.
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Apr 25, 2020 09:52
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Spring 1912  The potential for a Mediterranean stalemate was brought up--and may be beginning. Though the UK is about to take Venice from A-H and may be able to use its army to harass the Ottoman Empire's fleets.  Russia fares less well on the Eastern Front this turn. A-H, with German support, returns to Warsaw. Furthermore, the Ottoman Empire is able to retake Ankara. Austria-Hungary A Gal - War A Lvn S Gal - War (support cut; retreat: A Lvn R Stp (attempt failed--unit burnt)) A Vie - Gal Ottoman Empire F Alb - Ion (failed) A Arm - Ank A Bul S Rum F Con S Arm - Ank F Ion - Tyn (failed) F Nap S Ion - Tyn F Rom S Ion - Tyn A Rum S Bul (support cut) A Ser - Gre  Russian defenses also fall up north. Germany takes Denmark and supports the UK into Norway. United Kingdom F Bar - Nwy A Bur H F Edi - Nrg A Pie - Ven F Ska - Swe (failed) A Spa - Mar F Tun S Wes - Tyn F Tus S Wes - Tyn F Wes - Tyn (failed) Germany F Bal S Kie - Den A Ber S Pru F Kie - Den F Nth S Bar - Nwy A Pru S Gal - War Russia F Ank - Arm (failed; retreat: F Den - Ska (failed; retreat: A Mos S War - Lvn F Nwy - Nth (failed; retreat: F Stp north coast - Bar A Swe H A Ukr - Rum (failed) A War - Lvn  Of significance, both Austria-Hungary and Russia attempt to retreat into the unoccupied St. Petersburg. This results in both units being destroyed and the province continuing to be unoccupied.  League Chat remains conspicuously silent during this turbulent times!
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Apr 25, 2020 18:09
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(We are currently on Fall 1913--I've got to take a bit of a break but will try and get the updates online faster today to get us caught up. I worry that the players aren't chatting in thread because we're so behind! That said, get your predictions in while you can--you'll be able to verify them quickly today (again, hopefully, best laid plans and all that)).
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Apr 25, 2020 18:11
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I don't really know what I'm looking at and I'm just really chomping at the bit for when players reveal their plans after they die, but gently caress it I'm betting Russia next out.
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Apr 25, 2020 19:21
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I seriously can't believe that Austria is not dead yet.
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Apr 25, 2020 19:42
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Enchanted Hat posted:I seriously can't believe that Austria is not dead yet. 
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Apr 25, 2020 19:54
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Apr 25, 2020 19:57
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Enchanted Hat posted:I seriously can't believe that Austria is not dead yet. That no one's really in a position to take advantage of AH's forces being so far from their SC's is also surprising. Germany's entire western side is now just bare such that the army in Burgundy can take a German SC with no chance of resistance. The army in Greece needs to get a move on though. The fortunes of Russia have been totally reversed, but in the wake of that, the UK is ascendant even more and it's not likely that the remaining forces could effectively push back as the UK takes more Russian SCs
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Apr 25, 2020 19:57
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Xelkelvos posted:Germany's entire western side is now just bare such that the army in Burgundy can take a German SC with no chance of resistance. NTH and ber technically cover all the western SCs, it's just they're probably going to be busy doing other things. England can potentially get a +5 this turn if Germany keeps helping them in Scandinavia while they stab the Germans hard, at which point I'm not sure that Germany and Russia can hold on. Realistically England will probably "just" get a +2 or +3, which is still -- I guess -- 2 fleets and an army worth of northern firepower for England next year. The north is otherwise generally still a big sketchy mess and I really don't know who'll support whom into getting what. I do think at this point Germany and Russia need to stop fighting eachother to have a shot at making it to the finish. England's local northern forces will be the size of theirs combined next year, and they're sure as poo poo not going to be heading for the Mediterranean. Austria is alive because Russia and Germany can't kill them if they wanted to and Turkey decided they're better off with Austrian armies poking at Russia then they are with Turkish armies stuck at home right now. I probably would've flooded the Balkans to try to stop England's ground advance, but keeping Austria alive is better if you're killing Russia instead of using them against England. In that context I like the A ser - gre move, since it guaranteed the option of a convoy into apu and reassured Austria that they don't need to worry about turks right now. That English army can't get more than +1 SC this year anyhow. The Mediterranean stalemate will probably stay a stalemate but there are some risky options either side might take still. Turkey has the option of letting the rom fleet stay unsupported and sacrificing TYR to guarantee a convoy into apu, for instance, and England can go for either TYR or rom plus the army is a big wildcard. The safe option for Turkey is to go F nap - apu, F rom - nap, F ION E: Fixed a misstyped order, in the finest tradition of Diplomacy. Xerophyte fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Apr 25, 2020 |
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Apr 25, 2020 20:55
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Xerophyte posted:NTH and ber technically cover all the western SCs, it's just they're probably going to be busy doing other things. OP you need to get caught up with the turn updates, I don't know what I'm doing and I could really use this kind of advice from the thread!!
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Apr 25, 2020 21:45
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