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Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t

Sataere posted:

Holy poo poo, it is nuts to think that DeMarco Murray was still a thing like four years ago. It feels like ages since I've thought of him. The life of an NFL running back

I forgot he was even a Titan, though now that it is mentioned I vaguely recall it.

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dkj
Feb 18, 2009

Sataere posted:

Holy poo poo, it is nuts to think that DeMarco Murray was still a thing like four years ago. It feels like ages since I've thought of him. The life of an NFL running back

And he was a stud the season right before that.

The Wild Man of YOLO
Apr 20, 2004

A little cross-country, gentlemen?

Got a couple intriguing trade offers in my superflex dynasty league:

GIVE: Daniel Jones
GET: Mitch Trubisky, 2022 1st round pick

Daniel Jones is my QB4 behind Murray, LJax, and Cousins. I snuck him off waivers with my last few FAAB dollars after he got dropped around week 14 or 15. Trubisky sucks but I wouldn't mind getting back my own 2022 1st that I traded away when I acquired Diggs earlier this season.

GIVE: 2021 pick 1.11, Gerald Everett, Jordan Love
GET: 2021 picks 1.06 and 3.07

I would probably want to negotiate that 1.11 to be a slightly later pick (I own 2.01 and 2.04) but the bones of a good deal are here. Depending on how many QBs go in the first five picks (I'm projecting three atm) this could be an Etienne or a Chase or a D. Smith. I'm having trouble trying to evaluate Jordan Love since he was always supposed to sit for a couple years and so his value hasn't really gone down, but how high was it to begin with is the question. How likely is he to develop into a useful fantasy asset when his time does come? I don't know much about him so :shrug:

The Wild Man of YOLO fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jan 11, 2021

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

I’d do the first in a heartbeat and would take the second if you get it to 2.01

You’ll end up cutting Mitch but who cares

The Wild Man of YOLO
Apr 20, 2004

A little cross-country, gentlemen?

I was thinking the same, thanks for the second opinion. Also I would receive the 3.07 pick with the second deal, I forgot to include that in my post

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

The first is a no brainer.

The Wild Man of YOLO
Apr 20, 2004

A little cross-country, gentlemen?

No dice on the 2.01; he says he wants to use his first rounders as trade bait closer to draft time and that he thinks he can get more for 1.11 than 2.01 by virtue of it being in the first round. He's probably not wrong.

The Wild Man of YOLO fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Jan 11, 2021

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
I'd definitely do both of those as is

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
just wait, people will be banging the door down to offer me valuable things for my Daniel Jones any day now

mega dy
Dec 6, 2003

Thinking about starting a novelty league with no bench. Players start with $1000 they can spend at the draft auction, but that money rolls over to FAAB, so each player would have to choose between spending money on a great team up-front or loading up for the inevitable free agency frenzy that a zero-bench policy would create. I always find the waiver wire stuff to be the most interesting aspect of team management so I think it would be fun and require a lot more attention.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

Poque posted:

just wait, people will be banging the door down to offer me valuable things for my Daniel Jones any day now

I've got Jameis

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe
I remember when we first founded our site, back in 2017. NFL.com writer Chris Wesseling retweeted out my first fantasy football puzzles article and we were over the moon. It was my first "wow, we're actually doing somethin' here" moment.

On Friday, Chris Wesseling passed away from cancer. He was in his mid-40s.

There is a gofundme for his wife and 1-year-old son.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/For-lakisha-and-lincoln

He will be missed. He was 1/4 of my favorite podcast "Around the NFL."

gently caress cancer. Stay drunk all the time.

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

Silly Burrito posted:

That's one thing I've been curious about...for people that put in a LOT of time into fantasy football (full time pundits as you say), I wonder how often they've won fantasy football championships. I realize that you could pump this number up by being in a plethora of leagues, but for someone like Matthew Berry, is he in the 50s-100s? Personally, I have 12 overall spread out over the last 11 years or so, but there's got to be people with tons.

I've been going through all the posts in this thread to calibrate for 2021, and this one stood out. It's a great question. It illuminates a subtle difference between pundits and other fantasy football players.

To wit: Winning in your own leagues doesn't really correlate to being good at helping others. I've won ~$3200 in my fantasy leagues over the last few years on an investment of just over $500. But that doesn't mean I'm good at helping others: It just means I'm good at reading my leaguemates whom I've known for 10-20 years.

That's why I spend most of my time coming up with stuff like BBQ strategy: I want to give advice that makes others successful regardless of how their leagues' auction trends differ from mine. It's a weird thing in that, when pressed, I want to point to my own fantasy successes, but they don't mean poo poo if I can't point to yours.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Is there an NFL thread or a Super Bowl thread?

dkj
Feb 18, 2009

RCarr posted:

Is there an NFL thread or a Super Bowl thread?

You mean for the big game?

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

If anyone is bored, I could use some help :)


I have to pick 10 of these prop bets. What do you think the easiest 10 are? I bolded the ones that seem like no brainers. Thoughts?


1) Coin Flip-----Heads______ Tails______

2) Winning the Super Bowl----------Buccaneers_____ Chiefs_____

3) Total Points by the Buccaneers-----------------Over_____ Under____ 27.5 Points

4) Total Points by the Chiefs-----------------Over_____ Under_____ 31.5 Points

5) First Team to Commit a Penalty (exclude Declined penalties) -------Buccaneers____ Chiefs____

6) Total Number of INTs thrown by BOTH Teams Combined---Over____ Under____ 1.5INTs

7) What Team Will Score First------Buccaneers____ Chiefs____

8) How Will the First Points be Scored---Field Goal____ Touchdown (Can be a Defensive TD) ____ Safety____

9) How Will the Last Score of the Game be---Field Goal____ Touchdown____ Safety___

10) Will There Be A SCORELESS Quarter (Overtime included) ----Yes____ No____

11) Will the Buccaneers Score a Rushing TD in the First HALF? ----Yes____ No____

12) Total Buccaneers Rushing Yards-----Over_____ Under_____ 95.5Yrds

13) Total Buccaneers Receiving Yards----Over____ Under____ 300.5Yrds

14) Total Chiefs Rushing Yards----Over____ Under____ 82.5Yrds

15) Total Chiefs Receiving Yards----Over____ Under____ 330.5Yrds

16) Longest Field Goal Made----Over_____ Under_____ 47.5Yrds

17) First Team to Challenge the referee's Call-----Buccaneers_____ Chiefs______

18) Jersey Number to Score the First TD-----Over____ Under____ 17.5

19) Will There Be an INT for a TD-—Yes____ No____

20) First TD Will Be a----Passing TD_____ Rushing TD_____

21) Will T. Brady get a Rushing a TD? ——Yes____ No____

22) Will P. Mahomes get a Rushing TD? ——Yes____ No____

23) T. Brady will Throw How Many TDs-----Over____ Under____ 2.5 Passing TDs

24) P. Mahomes Will Throw How Many TDs----Over____ Under____ 3.5 Passing TDs

25) C. Edwards-Helaire Will Rush for How many Yards---Over____ Under____ 35.5Yrds Rushing

26) L. Fournette Will Rush for How Many Yards---Over___ Under____ 45.5Yrds Rushing

27) What Position Will Score the First TD?----RB_____ WR_____ Tight End_____ QB (rushing not throwing) ____

28) Who Will Throw the First INT----- T. Brady ____ P. Mahomes____

29) Most Receiving Yards---- Rob Gronkowski ____ Travis Kelce______

30) Most Rushing Yards-----C. Edwards-Helaire ____Ronald Jones _____

31) Will either team score 3 straight times (Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions) (includes Safeties)? Yes_____ No_____

32) Will there be a missed Extra Point? Yes______ No_______

33) Total Field Goals made by both teams? Over_____ Under______ 3.5

34) Will there be safety? Yes_______ No________

35) Largest lead of the game? Over_____ Under_______ 14.5 points

36) What team will have more sacks? ----Buccaneers____ Chiefs_____

37) What team will have the most interceptions? ----Buccaneers____ Chiefs____

38) Will Either Team Score in the last Two Minutes of the 1st Half---Yes____ No___

39) What Will P. Mahomes Throw First----Reception____ Incomplete\INT____

40) What Will T. Brady Throw First-----Reception____ Incomplete\INT_____

41) Will the team that scores first win the game? Yes _______ No _________

42) Will there be a successful two point conversion? Yes_____ No______

43) What will be the first turnover of the game? Interception_____ Fumble______

44) Total touchdowns scored in the game by both teams? Over_____ Under_____ 5.5

45) Will Chiefs score in all four quarters? Yes _____ No _______

46) Total number of different Buccaneers to have a reception? Over ______ Under_____ 5.5

47) Will Buccaneers score in all four quarters? Yes _____ No _____

48) What will happen first? (Includes safety- Continues till Buccaneers Score or Punt, Must be an official punt) Buccaneers Score First _____ Buccaneers Punt First______

49) Longest TD of the Game? (Includes returns-if no TD is made Answer 51) Over____ Under_____ 48.5 yards

50*) (only answer if answering #49 in case of no TDs) Total number of Punts by BOTH teams? (Official Punts only) Over_____ Under_____ 6.5

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
#6 cuz both qbs will throw ints in my opinion. I would vote Over on 1.5

Varg
Jan 13, 2007

A friendly face.

sure here's my probably dumb opinions

#10 - no

#16 - under

#29 - Kelce

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Ok I just need one more. Should I just go with the coin flip? At least that’s 50/50 odds?

Or maybe the one team scoring 3 straight times? That seems like the odds have to be in favor of no.

RCarr fucked around with this message at 23:17 on Feb 7, 2021

Varg
Jan 13, 2007

A friendly face.

I was wrong on #16 3x now hahah

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Haha don’t sweat it, I was wrong on most stuff.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

What is the general opinion of Deebo Samuel in a dynasty league? Current owner in my league seems down on him and is willing to deal him for a second round rookie draft pick. Is this something I should get in on?

Artonos
Dec 3, 2018
It's going to be a bit crowded with deebo, kittle, and Aiyuk all healthy. Touches are going to be manufactured a bit more for Aiyuk too in the short yardage game. Deebo looked good when in the field last year and his rookie year though. So I think I'd rather have deebo than a 2nd rounder. He might not reach wr1 status with the offense as it is now in SF. But he's probably a lock for a top 30 finish with upside. I don't really remember what his injury problems were last year though.

He's a solid guy but probably doesn't have the upside as some of the second round wr's that you can get this year.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Ty1990 posted:

What is the general opinion of Deebo Samuel in a dynasty league? Current owner in my league seems down on him and is willing to deal him for a second round rookie draft pick. Is this something I should get in on?

I'd trade a second for Deebo. He has top ten potential and his price is only going to go up. Him being hurt last year lowered his value in the eyes of the short-sighted, but when he played, he looked good.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

I desperately need a QB in my dynasty league but everyone overvalues them so much.

Like, no I will not trade Josh Jacobs, Tee Higgins, and a first round lottery pick for Josh Allen in a ppr league.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



RCarr posted:

I desperately need a QB in my dynasty league but everyone overvalues them so much.

Like, no I will not trade Josh Jacobs, Tee Higgins, and a first round lottery pick for Josh Allen in a ppr league.

This is why I always try to grab a quarterback in my dynasty leagues every year. Eventually one of them will hit

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

RCarr posted:

I desperately need a QB in my dynasty league but everyone overvalues them so much.

Like, no I will not trade Josh Jacobs, Tee Higgins, and a first round lottery pick for Josh Allen in a ppr league.

Well which teams have multiple QBs and which QBs are they? If they're spread pretty evenly so everyone has at most 1 solid backup, you're probably going to have to overpay for a low end weekly starter. But obv that's like a 2nd for Goff or Brady or something, not that joke you got sent.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



sourdough posted:

Well which teams have multiple QBs and which QBs are they? If they're spread pretty evenly so everyone has at most 1 solid backup, you're probably going to have to overpay for a low end weekly starter. But obv that's like a 2nd for Goff or Brady or something, not that joke you got sent.

This assumes the people in his league are rational, reasonable people.

dkj
Feb 18, 2009

Sataere posted:

This assumes the people in his league are rational, reasonable people.

Which is a pretty wild assumption for any fantasy football league

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Sataere posted:

This assumes the people in his league are rational, reasonable people.

Not really, more giving an idea to deal with a league that overvalues QBs beyond just throwing your hands up. If someone wants that for Josh Allen, you probably shouldn't target any elite QBs, and instead going for lower end guys that will still require an overpay but that less absolute cost.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Is it a Superflex dynasty league? If so, QBs should rightly be highly valued and drafted in rookie drafts.

If it’s a single QB league, then your leaguemates overvaluing QB can be to your benefit. If rookie QBs are consistently getting picked in the first round in your league rookie drafts, trade for late first/early second round rookie picks and grab the mid first round RBs/WRs that fall.

There’s always waiver wire QBs that can fill in for a few weeks - even in Superflex leagues.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Quarterroys posted:

There’s always waiver wire QBs that can fill in for a few weeks - even in Superflex leagues.

I'm in a couple like 40 roster spot 1 QB leagues where there aren't even any reasonable NFL backups on the wire. Just too many roster spots not to have a million QBs stashed.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

sourdough posted:

I'm in a couple like 40 roster spot 1 QB leagues where there aren't even any reasonable NFL backups on the wire. Just too many roster spots not to have a million QBs stashed.

Oh yeah - I’ve been in leagues like that, I have a deeper Superflex league where Chad Kelly was on my roster until about mid-last year, lol. It’s disgusting.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

I mean I have Goff, Stafford, and Tua, so it’s not like I’m in desperation mode. But I’m stacked at RB & WR, so I’d really love to get an top tier QB and run the league for a few years.

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
With Stafford and weapons and an offensive minded coach I think you're going to have a top10 qb there at least.

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe
What’s with people doing dynasty drafts before the actual NFL draft? Some of that in our Discord, lately

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Just an extra layer of strategy, trying to guess where players will land.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



RCarr posted:

I mean I have Goff, Stafford, and Tua, so it’s not like I’m in desperation mode. But I’m stacked at RB & WR, so I’d really love to get an top tier QB and run the league for a few years.

Oh, if you are trying to upgrade on Stafford, you're probably gonna have to pay to get a nice quarterback. That makes a bit more sense

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Dynasty startups are great any time after the super bowl, you can just add rookie picks (1.02, 1.02 etc.) to the player pool.

I’ve never done rookie drafts pre-NFL draft, but they can be hilarious to review a few months or years later. I think I remember Hakeem Butler being like consensus 1.02 or 1.03 a few years ago post-combine but pre-draft, lol.

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RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

How does trading Josh Jacobs for Travis Kelce sound in a vacuum?

PPR Dynasty league

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