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So Victoria's semi-lockdown ends on August 19th probably with single digit cases. What's the strategy from that point? Slowly reopen and then go back in to another lockdown by December? Does anyone in any layer of government within Australia have a clue what's going on?
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Jul 13, 2020 07:14
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Kt88 posted:Does anyone in any layer of government within Australia have a clue what's going on? since when has the answer ever been yes
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Jul 13, 2020 07:16
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Kt88 posted:So Victoria's semi-lockdown ends on August 19th probably with single digit cases. What's the strategy from that point? Slowly reopen and then go back in to another lockdown by December? Does anyone in any layer of government within Australia have a clue what's going on? It's intentional because they don't believe that shutting down for elimination will actually work. I doubt it too, although I think it's worth a try.
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Jul 13, 2020 07:18
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JBP posted:It's intentional because they don't believe that shutting down for elimination will actually work. I doubt it too, although I think it's worth a try. Well the suppression strategy sure looks like a raging success so far
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Jul 13, 2020 07:23
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Until we get a vaccination this is what life will be like, which will also soon force a recalibration of how the overall economy works when we are faced with ever growing economic inequality, government reliance and the inevitable loss of confidence from both business and consumers. Economists are pretty much in lockstep with the idea that confidence as a whole is its own stimulus, and lazy, ideological governments can happily coast along when confidence is high. But when it goes to poo poo, suddenly the ideology is laid bare and they are forced to evaluate just how much they are wedded to it over the idea of leaving large voting groups in the lurch, angry and afraid.
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Jul 13, 2020 07:24
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Victoria’s main goal is still to prevent the health system from being overloaded. The idea of suburb by suburb soft lockdowns has thankfully been shown to be a loving disaster so fingers crossed we won’t be returning to that
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Jul 13, 2020 07:48
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Les Affaires posted:this is what life will be like A quick google reveals multiple news stories with notable Australian professors, health advisors and economists saying elimination is entirely achievable in a country like Australia. There is also modelling that showed a high probability that elimination would have been achieved if Australia had simply maintained level 3 lockdown until June https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20136549v1 The willingness to admit defeat so rapidly is crazy. Maintaining bi-monthly lockdowns for the foreseeable future seems like a far more radical and economically damaging strategy.
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Jul 13, 2020 07:50
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Kt88 posted:
This ship sailed in March. Australians are fed up and not going to comply.
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Jul 13, 2020 07:52
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Ghost Leviathan posted:since when has the answer ever been yes 2007
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Jul 13, 2020 07:58
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JBP posted:This ship sailed in March. Australians are fed up and not going to comply. Bear in mind a large swathe of those australians are older people who have been waiting their entire lives for the chance to be able to get out and smell the roses and have the disposable income to do so, only to now be told to stay home. That sort of talk rubs the boomers all the wrong ways. It’s no wonder they have been getting all nihilistic about things lately. “well i won’t live forever will i” writ large.
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Jul 13, 2020 08:00
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Les Affaires posted:Bear in mind a large swathe of those australians are older people who have been waiting their entire lives for the chance to be able to get out and smell the roses and have the disposable income to do so, only to now be told to stay home. That sort of talk rubs the boomers all the wrong ways. It’s no wonder they have been getting all nihilistic about things lately. I think that under 50 year olds are a way bigger problem for community spread.
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Jul 13, 2020 08:07
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Kt88 posted:So Victoria's semi-lockdown ends on August 19th probably with single digit cases. What's the strategy from that point? Slowly reopen and then go back in to another lockdown by December? Does anyone in any layer of government within Australia have a clue what's going on?
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Jul 13, 2020 08:08
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JBP posted:I think that under 50 year olds are a way bigger problem for community spread.
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Jul 13, 2020 08:09
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bowmore posted:my local shopping centre says otherwise, but it’s a moot point anyways Everyone is a problem.
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Jul 13, 2020 08:09
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JBP posted:Everyone is a problem.
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Jul 13, 2020 08:12
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Konomex posted:
Covid 19 is too spread out throughout the world to seriously consider it being capable of active eradication. It either burns itself out or the most likely scenario is that measures in the likes of Australia, Europe and the US it will be managed down to very few cases each year with medical intervention limiting the damage and it will be reduced but never wiped out in the reservoirs created in the various warzones around the world, India, The Americas south of the US, Africa and the Middle East. Tuberculosis is a well understood lung infection, has a vaccine for it, an active management program towards reduction for it and still kills about 1.5 million people a year. Covid is only getting attention now because it has been killing relatively rich people in any sort of numbers. Once middle class Aus, Europe and US has its death rate (or fear of death rate) down, it will become just another poor country disease that you have to get your shots* for before you go there. On Australia becoming a self-sufficient island chat - I think people completely underestimate just how interlinked Australia is into the international economy. Not just tourism but specialists heading into and out of Australia across many industries. My company alone would represent 500+ seats out of Australia each year and that's a small listed company. When I worked in Aus for a small unlisted company, we had specialists flying in internationally fairly routine. Then you have expats living overseas - I bet there would be well over 100,000 - not all on fat salaries that can afford two weeks of paid quarantine to lay their deceased parent to rest. *while lifelong vaccine may look unlikely, a vaccine lasting six months I think is very achievable and will allow for step change in pandemic management, travel etc).
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Jul 13, 2020 08:24
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https://twitter.com/JennyENicholson/status/1282106395307806720 Florida has a daily confirmed case rate greater than the entirety of eurpoe, and has for like a week The Peccadillo fucked around with this message at 09:12 on Jul 13, 2020 |
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Jul 13, 2020 09:07
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amerika loving dumb so wat
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Jul 13, 2020 09:20
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BurgerQuest posted:amerika loving dumb so wat Let him enjoy some schadenfreude it's all we have right now.
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Jul 13, 2020 09:32
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Les Affaires posted:Until we get a vaccination this is what life will be like, which will also soon force a recalibration of how the overall economy works when we are faced with ever growing economic inequality, government reliance and the inevitable loss of confidence from both business and consumers. This reminds me of Orwell asserting that it would be impossible for Britain to emerge victorious from WWII without becoming a socialist country. (I'm not disagreeing with you that a "recalibration" would be desirable, I'm just a pessimist.) Solemn Sloth posted:Victoria’s main goal is still to prevent the health system from being overloaded. The idea of suburb by suburb soft lockdowns has thankfully been shown to be a loving disaster so fingers crossed we won’t be returning to that "Flattening the curve" is the strategy in mostly disastrous countries like the UK and (at least on paper) the US. Suppression is different, it's the physical distancing and X-patrons-per-four-square-metres and suburb by suburb lockdown thing. As far as I can tell the idea is that it keeps the numbers low enough to allow the vast majority of citizens to not have to statistically worry about catching it, as long as they continue to live this anxious, wing-clipped life of booking ahead for the pub and constantly washing their hands and never going too close to strangers. loving garbage strategy from the beginning when eradication was even remotely a possibility, and every passing month has only shown it to be more viable. Ten years in Melbourne and this is literally the first time I've ever wished I still lived in Perth. Electric Wrigglies posted:On Australia becoming a self-sufficient island chat - I think people completely underestimate just how interlinked Australia is into the international economy. Not just tourism but specialists heading into and out of Australia across many industries. My company alone would represent 500+ seats out of Australia each year and that's a small listed company. When I worked in Aus for a small unlisted company, we had specialists flying in internationally fairly routine. Then you have expats living overseas - I bet there would be well over 100,000 - not all on fat salaries that can afford two weeks of paid quarantine to lay their deceased parent to rest. How long are these visits, though? Tourism is obviously scuppered if two weeks of quarantine is required, but it's not unreasonable for, say, a three-month contract, especially when a lot of other countries aren't going to be requiring it on the other side. Non-rich expats living overseas being unable to return home for funerals is unfortunate, but was a fact of life for people living overseas until at least the 1960s or 1970s, and certainly isn't worth creating a fuckload more funerals to avoid.
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Jul 13, 2020 09:33
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And speaking of quarantine, given the government keeps telling us this is going to be with us for a while, it's probably time to draw up blueprints for more permanent and suitable facilities out by the major airports.
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Jul 13, 2020 09:34
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JBP posted:Let him enjoy some schadenfreude it's all we have right now. I think I'm agreeing with you that a "perfectly implemented public health response" is like that old joke where a physicist has the perfect plan that gets a cow off a rooftop by assuming it's a spherical cow in a perfect vacuum
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Jul 13, 2020 10:27
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freebooter posted:How long are these visits, though? Tourism is obviously scuppered if two weeks of quarantine is required, but it's not unreasonable for, say, a three-month contract, especially when a lot of other countries aren't going to be requiring it on the other side. I have literally nothing to base this off but anecdata from the two industries I'm personally familiar with and a quick Google with results from other countries, but I think I can confidently say the majority of business trips don't usually run for months, it's more like weeks. This may well vary by industry and activity (e.g. an international symposium/conference vs a specialised role).
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Jul 13, 2020 10:57
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Yeah, anecdata again, but I think there's a huge difference between a business trip or a conference, and what Electric Wigglies is talking about which is specialist contractors. Business trips and conferences are going to go the way of office presenteeism: something which was rendered mostly obsolete by the internet and has only persisted this long through inertia.
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Jul 13, 2020 11:49
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Also anecdotal but I'm always shocked by how gratuitously a lot of businesses do the "business trip" thing. Granted, there are some industries and specialists where you can't exactly train/hire in-country, and then since the thing they're working on is worth millions, having some people internationally who pop onto 6 to 24 hour flights once a week for a few grand is not that big a deal. But I reckon a lot of business travel is the human equivalent to the "it's cheaper* to rip it out of the ground, send it halfway across the world, have them refine it with horrible pollution and almost no safety or safety standards, ship it halfway across the world again to be further refined, then ship it back here for sale" thing. * it's cheaper because all the hidden costs are passed on to you, the taxpayer! and onto the developing world! and future generations! what a bargain If your business plan isn't viable without: 1) exploiting your workforce 2) completely ratfucking the local, national, or global environment 3) crushing all competitors, putting a lot of people out of employment, or just overall making society worse Then maybe it's not a valid business plan?? A sob story like "we couldn't afford to keep producing coca cola without these million dollar backalley deals on civil water access and a free pass on the broader costs of rampant plastic production/pollution" should only ever be responded to with "are you providing an essential service? no? then gently caress off and die, parasite" Also it goes without saying but extensively flying specialists around the world to avoid hiring/training locally is, apart from a throat punch to the environment, basically.. well, i don't know what you'd call it properly, but I think of it as corporate colonialism
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Jul 13, 2020 11:54
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Sulla Faex posted:Also anecdotal but I'm always shocked by how gratuitously a lot of businesses do the "business trip" thing. Granted, there are some industries and specialists where you can't exactly train/hire in-country, and then since the thing they're working on is worth millions, having some people internationally who pop onto 6 to 24 hour flights once a week for a few grand is not that big a deal. But I reckon a lot of business travel is the human equivalent to the "it's cheaper* to rip it out of the ground, send it halfway across the world, have them refine it with horrible pollution and almost no safety or safety standards, ship it halfway across the world again to be further refined, then ship it back here for sale" thing. You can have a viable business plan without even making a profit nowadays. It's almost like the system is broken.
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Jul 13, 2020 12:23
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Gillard is solo on qanda and the entire hashtag is a loving love-in
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Jul 13, 2020 12:46
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Also I remember the thread was talking about it recently, so personal anecdote.. after a few months and my girlfriend starting to really feel comfortable with them, her two new Australian flatmates have responded to the klaxon of "all flights purchased after 12 July going back to Australia will now have to pay for their own 2 weeks quarantine" and bought one way tickets to go back in september before the switch at midnight. They're on visas which are running out and she hasn't had much luck finding work, and rather than stick it out and see where this covid in europe thing goes, they're gonna head back to Australia. I haven't had to deal with visas so I don't know how big a factor that is (I could imagine at the moment, you'd be given all sorts of allowances to manage expiring visas, even if the overall response is slower than normal) but I'd be really curious on numbers for how many people moved back to their original country to better weather this covid stuff, which could easily last years
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Jul 13, 2020 12:56
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LIVE AMMO COSPLAY posted:You can have a viable business plan without even making a profit nowadays. It's almost like the system is broken. Frankly you can live for at least 3-4 years on the ASX without even getting revenue, let alone profit. Just reverse list, put out a pretty prospectus, capital raise after capital raise until you have squeezed everything from the retail investors you've fooled for a few years then go in VA.
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Jul 13, 2020 13:15
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Sulla Faex posted:I'd be really curious on numbers for how many people moved back to their original country to better weather this covid stuff, which could easily last years For stats nerds there'll be some fascinating stuff coming out of all this, I'm really interested to eventually see the numbers on how many people came back and where from and the reasons why etc. The fact that New Zealand cracked 5 million population purely from expats returning is amazing.
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Jul 13, 2020 13:22
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It seems there's a lot of people suddenly finding out that Capitalism that requires infinite resources and minimal labour costs...dosn't actually work. We're well on the way to a UBI here in Aus. If we were 2 years away from another US election they'd probably be looking at a revolution, but I think Biden's going to be able to starve it off. Also, the test came back negative (note the test RESULTS were ready within 30 hours. Getting the results from the doctor took another days). I have rhinovirus. So called because it feels like a Rhinoceroses fell on me and I am drowning it's in bodily fluids. Aka, a common cold. I can draw my own conclusions on what happens if/when I catch COVID-19.
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Jul 13, 2020 13:31
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lol that we're still going through with deporting people to New Zealand.
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Jul 13, 2020 13:36
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I know Qanda is a stupid bullshit show that nobody outside the political class cares about, but honestly, there is a loving once-in-a-century pandemic rampaging through the world and spiralling out of control in Julia Gillard's own state and this episode is still just reminiscing about her career because she released a loving book yesterday
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Jul 13, 2020 13:39
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The funny thing is that this is only the second-most poorly timed book release by a former Australian PM during a pandemic
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Jul 13, 2020 13:42
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The Indonesian government yesterday announced changes to the automatic issuing of emergency stay permits to people, expats with proper stay permits will be fine, but there are still thousands of australians that were just on tourist visas. They're all going to be looking at $1000+ for a flight, then $3000 for the quarantine hotel costs. Hard to feel sympathy when there have been flights running from Jakarta to Sydney every week the entire time though.
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Jul 13, 2020 13:45
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How are there thousand of Australians on 60-day tourist visas when that's well after the date at which you had to seek Home Affairs permission to leave - and tourism was not a valid reason? Caring duties? Compassionate reasons like funerals? I can imagine that accounting for some of it, but not thousands.
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Jul 13, 2020 13:51
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freebooter posted:How are there thousand of Australians on 60-day tourist visas when that's well after the date at which you had to seek Home Affairs permission to leave - and tourism was not a valid reason? Caring duties? Compassionate reasons like funerals? I can imagine that accounting for some of it, but not thousands. Indonesian Immigration was issuing automatic Emergency Stay Permits to every foreigner in the country that arrived after the 5th of February, didn't even need to go to an immigration office to do it. I have a friend that arrived on a free tourist visa in Indonesia the day before they stopped issuing them and he's just been there the entire time going to beaches and having a holiday. Centusin fucked around with this message at 14:01 on Jul 13, 2020 |
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Jul 13, 2020 13:57
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freebooter posted:For stats nerds there'll be some fascinating stuff coming out of all this, I'm really interested to eventually see the numbers on how many people came back and where from and the reasons why etc. The fact that New Zealand cracked 5 million population purely from expats returning is amazing. Evidently (according to SA expat so grain of salt) there are 500 thousand South Africans trying to get back home. Crazy on first blush because South Africa is a basket case both in terms of Covid and just generally economically anyway but a lot of the returnees are heading back because they now have no work and no support network where they are so no real option. New Zealand will probably have the largest percentage increase in population from people returning home (kiwis are relatively rich so can afford the travel, NZ looks to be safer than anywhere else and the NZ diaspora is large relative to its population) but the shear numbers from the likes of SA, India, China on the move etc is staggering. The second order effects out of covid and the associated lockdowns is really something. Like someone said in another thread, there are going to be plenty of plays with a covid time period setting being written for decades to come.
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Jul 13, 2020 14:06
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I’m shocked to read that child to child transmission is a thing that becomes apparent when you start testing children. Flabbergasted, really.
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Jul 13, 2020 15:19
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realbez posted:I’m shocked to read that child to child transmission is a thing that becomes apparent when you start testing children. Flabbergasted, really. The initial bullshit about children not only being immune, but also possessing magical powers that cause coronavirus to cease existing in their presence was really weird.
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Jul 13, 2020 15:22
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