|
Who will you vote for in 2020? This poll is closed. |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden |
|
425 | 18.06% |
| Trump |
|
105 | 4.46% |
| whoever the Green Party runs |
|
307 | 13.05% |
| GOOGLE RON PAUL |
|
151 | 6.42% |
| Bernie Sanders |
|
346 | 14.70% |
| Stalin |
|
246 | 10.45% |
| Satan |
|
300 | 12.75% |
| Nobody |
|
202 | 8.58% |
| Jess Scarane |
|
110 | 4.67% |
| mystery man Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party |
|
61 | 2.59% |
| Dick Nixon |
|
100 | 4.25% |
| Total: | 2089 votes | ||
|
The Democratic Primaries are effectively over barring some novel insanity, and it certainly looks like 2020 is going to be a contest between sitting president Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden. Also the variety of nominal third parties who will also be on some of the ballots. This is the thread to talk about general election polling and news and debate the merits and flaws of various candidates, plus any remaining news from the Democratic primary. This thread will be harshly moderated, and people who clearly aren't interested in discussion will be ejected hard. Please keep in mind these rules and guidelines, as well as the normal D&D and SA rules. Rules and Guidelines
fool of sound posted:
Somebody fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Jun 18, 2020 |
#
?
May 29, 2020 18:11
|
|
As you may be aware, there has been something of a policy change regarding the accusations of sexual assault against Biden, and the people who have made those accusations. The fact is that Biden stands accused of sexual assault. Posters are not required to believe those accusations, but it is no longer going to be acceptable to cast aspersions upon the accusers or their credibility. It is still fine to discuss the accusations, but do not demand that other posters who support Biden answer for those accusations, nor accuse them or supporting or minimizing sexual assault due to their support for Biden. People can support Biden for any number of reasons, and you should respond to the arguments they make, rather than deflect to the accusations. If a poster says they want to vote for Biden because he might nominate better supreme court justices than Trump, then respond to that rather than bringing up the accusations. If a poster wants to assert that Biden is fundamentally a more moral person than Trump on the other hand., feel free to bring them up.
|
|
| # ? Apr 24, 2024 15:20 |
|
|
Hope this isn't annoying, but could Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party (https://solidarity-party.org/) be added to the poll? I know most of the candidates up there are just for jokes, but I do think with the craziness of 2020 Third Parties will probably see a slight uptick as voters are too disgusted to go with either main choice. I'm sure the vast majority of votes for 3rd Parties will go to the Greens or to the Libertarians, but you never know. EDIT: Mods you are cool people thanks. Crazy Joe Wilson fucked around with this message at 20:32 on May 29, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 18:29
|
|
|
I think this campaign cycle, even more than 2016, will determine the shape of campaigns moving forward. The Democratic campaign in particular is very deliberately strategizing differently than in 2016. If it succeeds, I think some of the good social issues that were front and center in 2016 will unfortunately remain quiet or under state-level purview.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 18:40
|
|
|
There could be some other shifts as well. Mainly with how there was no real response at the federal level. Most things were delegated down to the state and local levels. This has led to complaints regarding re-openings, supply problems, guidance on critical and non-critical businesses. The irony is a GOP cornerstone is that big government is bad and leaving things to the state is the best way to go about many issues. We just saw that cornerstone erode over the past 3 months.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 19:15
|
|
|
I believe it is possible to be black and not vote for Joe Biden. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 19:46
|
|
|
Scooter_McCabe posted:There could be some other shifts as well. Mainly with how there was no real response at the federal level. Most things were delegated down to the state and local levels. This has led to complaints regarding re-openings, supply problems, guidance on critical and non-critical businesses. The irony is a GOP cornerstone is that big government is bad and leaving things to the state is the best way to go about many issues. We just saw that cornerstone erode over the past 3 months. Conservatives never really believed in "states rights". That was only used as a fallback argument whenever one of their agenda items failed to catch on at the federal level like slavery, abortion, Jim Crow, bans on same-sex marriage, etc. As for how the GE campaigns go, that's an eternity away. I hope like hell mail-in voting catches on. I hope like hell we still have a postal service by then.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 19:48
|
|
|
volts5000 posted:Conservatives never really believed in "states rights". That was only used as a fallback argument whenever one of their agenda items failed to catch on at the federal level like slavery, abortion, Jim Crow, bans on same-sex marriage, etc. I think it will for the silliest of reasons. A lot of people did at home grocery shopping, like groceries and booze getting delivered. So they know that if they do something remotely they will get something they want, they have faith that the process of relaying information works. So when it comes to at home ballots much the same way except a 16 pack of White Castle Burgers does not show up a day or two later. At least that is what I am hoping, low turnouts suck.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 20:26
|
|
|
Biden just released a public statement on the George Floyd murder: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/29/politics/joe-biden-george-floyd/index.html In brief, he says he spoke to Floyd's family, that there needs to be fundamental police reform to hold police accountable, and that America will never overcome systemic racism until Americans refuse to stop being silent and complacent in the face of racism and injustice and recognize that silence is complicity.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 20:31
|
|
|
Scooter_McCabe posted:There could be some other shifts as well. Mainly with how there was no real response at the federal level. Most things were delegated down to the state and local levels. This has led to complaints regarding re-openings, supply problems, guidance on critical and non-critical businesses. The irony is a GOP cornerstone is that big government is bad and leaving things to the state is the best way to go about many issues. We just saw that cornerstone erode over the past 3 months. I meant more in terms of focus. There was a bit of a spat early on involving James Carville, Mr. "the economy*, stupid". (*And by this I think he does mean the actual economy, not the stock market.) I think ultimately his perspective bore out in the voting we have seen thus far that has gotten the Democratic candidate to where he is currently, with a campaign shaped the way it is. Meanwhile, social issues not entirely but comparatively decoupled from economic issues were big in the 2016 GE. I don't think that will be as true this time.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 20:33
|
|
|
Epicurius posted:Biden just released a public statement on the George Floyd murder: That's pretty decent if, the minimum that can be expected from anyone. Klobs better be off the VP list if he expects anyone to believe that.
|
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 21:19
|
|
|
Epicurius posted:Biden just released a public statement on the George Floyd murder: In other words, what the Democrats, as a party, have been saying since Obama. It may as well be "thoughts and prayers." In the meantime, while Klob's probably out as VP pick, the Dem establishment will keep pushing for tough-on-crime candidates and recruiting prosecutors to run. e: if Biden wants to win, he's going to need to do better at turning out POC voters in the Upper Midwest than Clinton did. So far, he doesn't seem to be terribly interested in doing that, for all his much-discussed but little-seen ability to speak to black people. Majorian fucked around with this message at 22:36 on May 29, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 29, 2020 22:25
|
|
|
Joe Biden forcibly inserted his fingers into a female subordinate's vagina without her consent, and that is why I will be voting third party for the first time in my life. I have literally never voted for someone who wasn't a Democrat, but I can't vote for a rapist. 
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:10
|
|
|
B B posted:Joe Biden forcibly inserted his fingers into a female subordinate's vagina without her consent, and that is why I will be voting third party for the first time in my life. I have literally never voted for someone who wasn't a Democrat, but I can't vote for a rapist. There probably is a statistically significant chance that you HAVE in fact already voted for a rapist
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:20
|
|
|
B B posted:Joe Biden forcibly inserted his fingers into a female subordinate's vagina without her consent, and that is why I will be voting third party for the first time in my life. I have literally never voted for someone who wasn't a Democrat, but I can't vote for a rapist. I don't mean this as some sort of sarcasm, but this is basically the same attitude many of us have had in the past about other Democrats, with the reasoning being (for example) "i can't vote for someone who pushed for a war that either ruined or ended millions of lives," etc. The attitude you have here is (in my opinion) correct, but I hope that many of the people who are deciding that Biden's rape is a bridge too far at least realize that this is the exact same thing that has motivated many of us to not support Democrats in the past. It ultimately comes down to values/ideology, but many people try to frame it as being immature to not support someone from the two major parties.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:33
|
|
|
Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:I believe it is possible to be black and not vote for Joe Biden. lmao come on (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:38
|
|
|
B B posted:Joe Biden forcibly inserted his fingers into a female subordinate's vagina without her consent, and that is why I will be voting third party for the first time in my life. I have literally never voted for someone who wasn't a Democrat, but I can't vote for a rapist. That's the great thing about democracy, you vote your beliefs. If you believe he did it and that is disqualifying for you then boom someone else gets your vote. If you don''t think he did it, or afford him the principle of innocent until proven guilty and decide to vote for him okay. Or if you are just uncomfortable and go No Joe because you think it's the safer option no worries there. I hope you will vote for someone, even a write in. Getting a third party funding by meeting thresholds is going to force the two main parties move outside of their bubbles to appeal to the public. That means better public policy stances. I do think it is unfortunate that most voters have to choose between who is actually the least harmful instead of who has the best vision for the country.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:48
|
|
|
Ytlaya posted:I don't mean this as some sort of sarcasm, but this is basically the same attitude many of us have had in the past about other Democrats, with the reasoning being (for example) "i can't vote for someone who pushed for a war that either ruined or ended millions of lives," etc. "Did this person vote for the Iraq War?" is actually a question I ask myself every time I vote for a Democratic candidate in a primary. If the answer to that question is "yup," the chance that I vote for them in the primary decreases to 0%. In the past, I have been willing to make exceptions in the general election, though, because Republicans have tended to be much more militaristic than Democrats--although, I'd say this has been changing over the years as the Democrats have shifted their focus to becoming the "reasonable" conservative party and have filled their ranks with former members of the military and three-letter agencies. I would have never made the same exception for someone who had credible, public allegations of rape, though. Terror Sweat is correct that there's a decent chance I have voted for a rapist in the past since most of those candidates have been men deep into their political careers. I can only operate with the information I have at the time I am voting, though, and here is something I know ahead of the 2020 election: JOE BIDEN IS A RAPIST If I had known that Obama selected a rapist as his Vice President, I would not have voted for that ticket in 2008 or 2012. The fact that Joe Biden raped a woman has removed any chance that I'll ever cast a vote for him again in the future. Scooter_McCabe posted:That's the great thing about democracy, you vote your beliefs. If you believe he did it and that is disqualifying for you then boom someone else gets your vote. If you don''t think he did it, or afford him the principle of innocent until proven guilty and decide to vote for him okay. Or if you are just uncomfortable and go No Joe because you think it's the safer option no worries there. I am still actively donating to Democratic candidates who are in competitive primaries, and I have every intention of showing up to vote in November, yeah. I will not be voting for any Democrats who have credible rape allegations against them, though. B B fucked around with this message at 01:57 on May 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:53
|
|
|
Amy shooting herself in the foot by retroactively disqualifying herself from being VP is hilarious. Now Joe has a Top Cop and a bunch of people no one knows that he could select. Or Warren, who couldn't even win her home state.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 01:58
|
|
|
Judakel posted:Amy shooting herself in the foot by retroactively disqualifying herself from being VP is hilarious. Now Joe has a Top Cop and a bunch of people no one knows that he could select. Or Warren, who couldn't even win her home state. Harris could also not even win her home state, she just had the sense to drop out before it was irrefutably confirmed
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 02:04
|
|
|
According to RealClearPolitics, here are where the general election polls stand as of today: Of course, the election isn't won based on simple spread, it's based off of how the votes are distributed. There is some back-and-forth on which states are considered this year's "swing states". This is a fairly normal map for showing which states are believed to be competitive:  I'd say this is a cautious map. I'd even say a lot of these are kind of silly to the actual question of the final map, because it's hard to imagine a situation where anyone wins WI and MI and doesn't get MN. Maybe in a blowout, it is possible. These are the states to watch, where margins are generally lean and state level polls are especially relevant to what we're likely to observe as a final general election outcome in the fall. States like Arizona are changing. Not long ago, it was a firmly enough red state it wouldn't be on a map like this. We watch state polls for states such as Arizona.  Currently, the battleground states and their polls can be explored here. Fivethirtyeight recently released an article on the accuracy of state polling. But it's an odd year! We expect things to change as we go along.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 02:50
|
|
|
B B posted:Joe Biden forcibly inserted his fingers into a female subordinate's vagina without her consent, and that is why I will be voting third party for the first time in my life. I have literally never voted for someone who wasn't a Democrat, but I can't vote for a rapist. I agree with you. I hope whatever third party candidates emerge have strong leftist beliefs. I'm also hoping that Biden is forced to drop his candidacy because of the rape he committed, as incredibly unlikely as that will be.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 02:53
|
|
|
Some of the things we are watching is what makes 2020 different than 2016. No one ever really "knows" what's important in advance; it's usually gauged retrospectively. However, we are looking at some questions very closely. For example: Is 2020 going to be a referendum on the sitting president? It is widely believed that a general election is a referendum on the sitting president if there had been a sitting president. Was Trump's lack of a political background an asset in 2016? Now that he's been president, will that advantage disappear? Trump is no longer perceived as an "outsider" because he has been the president. Will traditional Republicans favor Trump more, now that they've seen him act basically like a Republican president? Fears that Trump was a RINO are now held to have been unfounded. Many Republicans have found him to be a solidly Republican president, who governed as many Republicans would have. How will the economy (and the stock market, two different things) be holding up in the fall? Will people hold the President responsible? It's often held that the biggest indicator of how well an incumbent will do is how well the economy is doing. Will it be doing well? If it's not, will people blame Trump, given that this was the result of an "act of God"? Or will they hold him accountable? How will changing demographics affect this election? We wonder this every time! However, this year has taken a funny turn, because of a strange demographic phenomenon.  Trump's handling of coronavirus, at present, has put him behind Biden with those 55+. Not just relatively, but in absolute terms. This is very unexpected and we will see if this continues through the year. Additionally, the gender balance of the country is not changing quickly, but the predictiveness of gender is strong in the GE.  Biden has very strong favorables among women, who have a much stronger statistical Democratic lean among all age and race demographics. Will the President's status as an impeached president matter? This is a new one. No other previously-impeached President has run again. Will the coronavirus change voting habits, especially if we see more vote by mail? Total wildcard. This phenomenon is new. Will Biden be equally subject to attacks from the right as Hillary Clinton? Biden's more of a known quantity and has a different reputation. If the Democrats change their strategy from 2016, in what ways will it be advantageous to have done so, versus not advantageous? What about the Republicans? Certain issues, like LGBT+ rights, have been very quiet this go-around. Will they stay quiet? If they do, will they ever really be given focus again (especially if one side that favored them more before, favors them less publicly this time, and succeeds in the GE?) Do "scandals" actually matter any more? Do "gaffes"? Voters now have a historically low level of trust in many institutions, including aspects of the media. Conspiratorial thinking, and the common awareness of the "false flag" objection, have changed how scandals are perceived. For example: quote:During the 2000 Republican presidential primary, Senator John McCain—whose adopted daughter is a dark-skinned child from Bangladesh—was the target of a whisper campaign implying that he had fathered a black child out of wedlock. Voters in South Carolina were reportedly asked in a push poll, "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew that he fathered an illegitimate black child?".[1] In addition, on the week of the nomination vote, dozens of radio stations were called on the same day asking talk show hosts what they thought of McCain's fathering of a black child out of wedlock. This Bush tactic was devastating to McCain in 2000. Would it have been successful in 2020? If the conventions cannot occur in-person, what effect will there be, if any? Who gets a bigger boost from an in-person convention? We don't know. How much do voters care about "traditional" campaigning, like eating gross state fair food, in 2020? Did these public engagement events really matter? How much? Will they matter this year, owing to the highly unusual circumstances? Hillary Clinton was seen to have an adversarial relationship with Obama, despite being his Secretary of State. Biden was never portrayed this way. Will a connection to Obama, seen to be especially positive, be an asset or a liability in 2020? Does Donald Trump's hatred of Obama serve him in 2020 or is it a liability? Did it serve him or was it a liability in 2016? How much of a factor was specific hate of Hillary Clinton? Both candidates were historically disliked in 2016. In 2016, most of these persons who hated both voted for Trump. Polling shows they strongly prefer Biden. However, there may be fewer now, since some Republicans may have come around to Trump now that they've seen him govern as a Republican president. quote:According to exit polls, 18 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of both Trump and Clinton, but when they cast their ballots, they broke 47 percent to 30 percent in favor of Trump. The president’s advantage among these voters was pivotal, too. Trump carried these voters by between 21 and 37 percentage points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the three states that put him over the top in the Electoral College. Pick fucked around with this message at 03:37 on May 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 02:59
|
|
|
Frankly, the Floyd riots are showing just how fragile the status quo is. Rather than volunteering your time or money for either untenable candidate, or arguing with people on the internet, I urge you to support this movement instead. Minnesota Freedom Fund posted:SUPPORT BLACK YOUTH LED MOVEMENTS RIGHT NOW #GeorgeFloyd
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 03:53
|
|
|
Pick posted:Will Biden be equally subject to attacks from the right as Hillary Clinton? Biden's more of a known quantity and has a different reputation. I don't agree with this. Two months ago, none of us knew that he allegedly raped a staffer. His long career in politics has been rife with scandals, and there are, in all likelihood, more revelations to come.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 05:01
|
|
|
Pick posted:According to RealClearPolitics, here are where the general election polls stand as of today: I wish there were some way to easily compare 2020 polling to 2016 by date/state via the realclearpolitics format. Would help keep my mild optimism in check.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 05:05
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I don't agree with this. Two months ago, none of us knew that he allegedly raped a staffer. His long career in politics has been rife with scandals, and there are, in all likelihood, more revelations to come. Also, the one advantage to all of this that Democrats could seize on is Criminal Justice Reform but... whoops you chose Biden and he has an awful record on that matter.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 05:09
|
|
|
Judakel posted:Also, the one advantage to all of this that Democrats could seize on is Criminal Justice Reform but... whoops you chose Biden and he has an awful record on that matter. It's not clear that this is likely to change voter preferences in swing states. The coverage in The Atlantic and Mother Jones is not supportive, but what percentage of suburban Wisconsinites would be likely to change their vote as a result of better understanding the contents of a crime bill that is over a quarter-century old, especially when the opposition is not opposed to this particular legislation either? It has a complicated legacy that has not been polled well among the general population. Also, is this news, or is this currently "priced in"? Are low-information voters likely to learn about this and change their vote as a result? Are high-information voters unaware or likely to change their vote as a result of this crime bill? A "tough on crime" stance worked for Trump and he is likely to maintain his "tough on crime" position. It's not clear this will be a major differentiator in a way that is disadvantageous to Biden. Also, he can afford to lose votes in very liberal states provided he doesn't lose them entirely; California and New York may view these issues differently than Minnesota and North Carolina. Pick fucked around with this message at 05:36 on May 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 05:28
|
|
|
The issue Biden faces is that even though he is very likely to have better favorables than Trump, he also has very low enthusiasm (to a much greater extent than any other Democratic candidate during my politically-aware lifetime, and that includes someone like Kerry). It will likely come down to whether high boomer Democratic turn-out outweighs decreased voting in most other demographics. I think there's a decent chance Biden wins, because I unfortunately believe that the people arguing that boomers like Biden more than they liked Hillary are correct. In the same way as Trump had more appeal among the Republicans than someone like Jeb, Biden has more appeal among older Democratic voters than someone like Hillary (or Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg etc). So while I'm sure Biden will have abysmal turn-out among the <40 set, it's entirely possible that increased turn-out among boomers will outweigh that. As for the coronavirus, I wouldn't be surprised if whatever negative hit Trump is taking from it is gone by November. Even if the virus itself hangs around, it will have been "normalized" by then. This whole election is pretty nuts. It's really insane how dysfunctional Biden is (there's other stuff at least as bad as that "you ain't black" thing in the Charlemagne interview - Biden will frequently respond to questions with completely non-sequiturs that go nowhere*), and this election is really highlighting the fact that there's not really any meaningful difference between old Democratic voters and old Republican voters. Through supporting Biden, they're throwing away everything they could have possibly claimed to be better than Republicans on. They're making the same arguments Trump people did about how it doesn't matter when Biden constantly lies and says insane poo poo, and treating rape/sexual assault accusations the same way as well. This election is basically putting the true grotesque nature of older Americans on display. All pretense is thrown aside, and we're just left with two sides each supporting their own senile lying rapist. * my "favorite" highlight from that interview is when Charlemagne asks what Biden/Democrats will do for black people, and Biden proceeds to talk about how 99% of "blacks" in Delaware support him, and all the black leaders and mayors support him. It's downright uncanny how similar it is to Trump speech.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 06:23
|
|
|
Pick posted:It's not clear that this is likely to change voter preferences in swing states. The coverage in The Atlantic and Mother Jones is not supportive, but what percentage of suburban Wisconsinites would be likely to change their vote as a result of better understanding the contents of a crime bill that is over a quarter-century old, especially when the opposition is not opposed to this particular legislation either? It has a complicated legacy that has not been polled well among the general population. The problem is, the best Biden can come up with nearly thirty years after the crime bill is basically the same rhetoric as he used then, only a little toned down in its overt racism. That's not going to inspire anybody to come out and vote for him who wasn't already 100% onboard. quote:A "tough on crime" stance worked for Trump and he is likely to maintain his "tough on crime" position. It's not clear this will be a major differentiator in a way that is disadvantageous to Biden. Trump's base likes "tough on crime" stances. The people Biden needs to turn out don't, as evidenced by what's going on in Minneapolis as we speak.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:02
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Trump's base likes "tough on crime" stances. The people Biden needs to turn out don't, as evidenced by what's going on in Minneapolis as we speak. As Trump himself pointed out, Minnesota is chock to the gills with Democratic leadership. Why would people vote for people such as the current Minnesota Democratic state leadership but not Biden, based on what we've seen?
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:29
|
|
|
Biden's entire campaign is built around preaching to a choir that's only shrinking, and to an audience of 'suburban moderates' that don't exist. This couldn't be better for Trump if he had plants running it.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:30
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Biden's entire campaign is built around preaching to a choir that's only shrinking, and to an audience of 'suburban moderates' that don't exist. This couldn't be better for Trump if he had plants running it. Actually, the successes of Democratic candidates in 2018 was based entirely around suburban voters. Suburban districts had a huge swing towards Democratic candidates.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:31
|
|
|
Pick posted:As Trump himself pointed out, Minnesota is chock to the gills with Democratic leadership. Why would people vote for people such as the current Minnesota Democratic state leadership but not Biden, based on what we've seen? Well, for starters, Biden is particularly terrible on these issues, to a degree that most other Dems (even Klob) simply aren't. Pick posted:Actually, the successes of Democratic candidates in 2018 was based entirely around suburban voters. Suburban districts had a huge swing towards Democratic candidates. Which is all very well for a midterm election. But we're talking about a presidential election now. And the number one reason why Hillary Clinton lost the last presidential election was because she could not turn out POC voters in the Upper Midwest. Think Biden will do any better? If so, why?
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:32
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Well, for starters, Biden is particularly terrible on these issues, to a degree that most other Dems (even Klob) simply aren't. In what respect? It has to extend beyond the '94 crime bill, even Bernie Sanders voted for that. Majorian posted:Which is all very well for a midterm election. But we're talking about a presidential election now. And the number one reason why Hillary Clinton lost the last presidential election was because she could not turn out POC voters in the Upper Midwest. Think Biden will do any better? If so, why? Because they also turned out in 2018. Also, Hillary Clinton lost for many reasons. I do not think it was inherently the inability to mobilize POC. In fact, it would be very difficult to make that claim when it's conflated with extreme voter suppression issues. She might have had the exact same enthusiasm level but suffered from tinkering designed to depress POC turnout. It means future elections will have to compensate for that--but perhaps with vote by mail, they can! Big wildcard. Also, it's often forgotten that Trump overperformed with black males. There have been many theories as to why. However, some of his actions since may have lost him that support. I'm sure we'll be seeing this play out. quote:As a general rule, black Americans do not support Donald Trump. According to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, Trump enjoys just a 14 percent approval with black Americans, while roughly eight in 10 black voters say they’re “uncomfortable” with his 2020 run for reelection. In a poll of roughly 800 black registered voters conducted by BlackPAC, Trump had a -59 percent net job approval rating. Biden, however, has traditionally been popular with black voters, and they were very supportive of him in this year's primary. They were a big part of him winning South Carolina, for example. Pick fucked around with this message at 07:39 on May 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:34
|
|
|
Do you think voters will be less suppressed in 2020 than they were in 2016?
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:38
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Do you think voters will be less suppressed in 2020 than they were in 2016? I answered that in the post when I said, quote:It means future elections will have to compensate for that--but perhaps with vote by mail, they can! Big wildcard.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:40
|
|
|
Pick posted:In what respect? It has to extend beyond the '94 crime bill, even Bernie Sanders voted for that. Bankruptcy bill, failure to lead or stand up for POC communities during this crisis, horrible stances on immigration for decades, saying stupid racist poo poo throughout the campaign, etc. Biden sucks on racial justice, to a very noticeable degree. The fact that a bunch of conservative Boomers who happened to be black turned out for him doesn’t erase this fact any more than it did Hillary’s own horribleness in 2016. quote:Because they also turned out in 2018. For candidates who were, for the most part, less odious and more inspiring than Joe Biden.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:41
|
|
|
Majorian posted:For candidates who were, for the most part, less odious and more inspiring than Joe Biden. They came out for moderate Democrats, and those candidates won; we did not see the same margin of success with extreme candidates. Biden is very moderate among Democrats almost by definition; he is almost always dead-center of the Democratic party. Here's a helpful analysis by 538 about his electoral positions over time: link. Majorian posted:Bankruptcy bill, failure to lead or stand up for POC communities during this crisis, horrible stances on immigration for decades, saying stupid racist poo poo throughout the campaign, etc. Biden sucks on racial justice, to a very noticeable degree. The fact that a bunch of conservative Boomers who happened to be black turned out for him doesn’t erase this fact any more than it did Hillary’s own horribleness in 2016. Elderly, conservative African-American voters are a significant contingent within the Democratic party and Biden recognizes them and they overwhelmingly vote for him. They deserve to be treated as a part of the Democratic party, and they are essential to it. Pick fucked around with this message at 07:45 on May 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:43
|
|
|
Pick posted:They came out for moderate Democrats, and those candidates won; we did not see the same margin of success with extreme candidates. Biden is very moderate among Democrats almost by definition; he is almost always dead-center of the Democratic party. Here's a helpful analysis by 538 about his electoral positions over time: link. He is personally (although certainly not solely) responsible for a lot of the economic and social woes that POCs face today. If you think Hillary’s bad record on issues of race and social justice didn’t hurt her in 2016, then you really need to revisit the data from four years ago. Pick posted:Elderly, conservative African-American voters are a significant contingent within the Democratic party and Biden recognizes them and they overwhelmingly vote for him. They deserve to be treated as a part of the Democratic party, and they are essential to it. The problem is they are the ONLY POC voters the Democratic establishment gives a poo poo about, as evidenced by how hard they worked to suppress young black and Latino voters. Majorian fucked around with this message at 07:48 on May 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 24, 2024 15:20 |
|
|
Majorian posted:He is personally (although certainly not solely) responsible for a lot of the economic and social woes that POCs face today. If you think Hillary’s bad record on issues of race and social justice didn’t hurt her in 2016, then you really need to revisit the data from four years ago. For what reason do you think that African-American people are only learning this today, indicating that it is not factored into current polling?
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2020 07:47
|
|