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america is back to normal woah, really back to normal https://twitter.com/eliowa/status/1381054584781737988
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Apr 11, 2021 02:31
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Hey so uh what happens if vaccination programs run into some kind of bottleneck like not enough vial bottles or syringes. Or whatever reagents they use for the fluid itself For that matter wouldn't letting covid become endemic be a problem if it means tacking on the resource intensiveness of a couple billion people wearing masks when they didn't before?
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Apr 11, 2021 02:31
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mod sassinator posted:also we're getting 90k+ new cases a day. in a month we're gonna be back up to 1300-1500 deaths or more a day. if we aren't then that's a super good sign about vaccine. again, I'm hopeful.. but let's see. deaths are already trending up in places further along the curve like michigan though Things will get worse again before they're better but that's a long way off from the assumption that every single person will get covid and cfr will translate to ifr and it'll all happen within two years. The original Imperial College model had 2m dead with a higher cfr and r0.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:32
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gradenko_2000 posted:Hey so uh what happens if vaccination programs run into some kind of bottleneck like not enough vial bottles or syringes. Or whatever reagents they use for the fluid itself I'm pretty sure the fundamental components are already what's limiting production
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Apr 11, 2021 02:33
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brugroffil posted:Things will get worse again before they're better but that's a long way off from the assumption that every single person will get covid and cfr will translate to ifr and it'll all happen within two years.  we'll see, it's not a stat or number I'm putting much mental energy into since it really doesn't help anything. i want to see it a lot lower, and it definitely should be lower if we can lean on vaccines to control this thing
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Apr 11, 2021 02:34
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gradenko_2000 posted:Hey so uh what happens if vaccination programs run into some kind of bottleneck like not enough vial bottles or syringes. Or whatever reagents they use for the fluid itself you mean like what happens if the USA's only saline plant in Puerto Rico gets obliterated by a hurricane again? lol what are the odds of that, hurricane season is months away
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Apr 11, 2021 02:35
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If you compare today to December 1st we're in way worse shape as far as the next 2 months are concerned. Having 20% of people vaccinated doesn't balance out the problems of open schools, people eating out, going on vacation, giving up on masks, the variants, and the total surrender of the State in fighting against the virus.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:35
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brugroffil posted:I'm pretty sure the fundamental components are already what's limiting production What they need to do is make the mRNA in some bacteria then harvest it. I wonder if there's a way to pseudouridylate mRNA in vivo?
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Apr 11, 2021 02:35
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brugroffil posted:I'm pretty sure the fundamentals of our economy are sound
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Apr 11, 2021 02:36
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we could have shut things down for like 1 month
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Apr 11, 2021 02:36
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Salt Fish posted:Yeah the average of the original strain also yay average of the original strain, WITH full availability of modern medical care it was like 10% without that part
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Apr 11, 2021 02:36
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inferis posted:we could have shut things down for like 1 month muh freedoms
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Apr 11, 2021 02:37
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Didn't it take a few months to eradicate in Australia?
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Apr 11, 2021 02:38
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Paradoxish posted:I mean, you can think that if it's easier for you, but there are actually scenarios in between "everything is fine! COVID is over!" and some crazy apocalyptic nonsense where society collapses Yeah it's just mental at this point. I have to believe that the vaccine is going to protect everyone who gets it, including my kid when he's able to get it. It's either that or be insanely miserable
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Apr 11, 2021 02:39
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inferis posted:we could have shut things down for like 1 month i loved a feigl ding retweet of someone saying if you add up the days New Zealand spent like 6-8 weeks total in lockdown and fully recovered, while the US has spent the last 14 months doing *waves arms wildly* and is still worse off
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Apr 11, 2021 02:42
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my husband said he feels sick, like he has a fever, nausea, headache. he’s been sneezing and blowing his nose, too. if he’s sick, then im sick too because i dont leave that dude alone. RIP LOL
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Apr 11, 2021 02:43
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cash crab posted:Can you please have this discussion over PM or something  Also, that makes me think of this one, from back in January from the CDC:  Of course, it kind of optimistically tapers into the distance.. 
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Apr 11, 2021 02:44
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Blitter posted:Also, that makes me think of this one, from back in January from the CDC: Hmm, hard to tell if that graph is increasing, decreasing, or stable at the end.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:45
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brugroffil posted:Didn't it take a few months to eradicate in Australia? Yeah, a few people keep posting that we should have just had a hard lockdown for a few weeks or whatever and that's pretty nonsensical. We probably could have done it in 4-6 weeks very early on, but eradication would definitely take a few months in the US given that we'd never shut everything down or lock people in their homes. Our best case realistic scenario (it's not realistic at all) is enforcing some restrictions on schools, indoor dining, event venues, etc. through the end of the summer as we get a ton of people vaccinated. Our half-rear end measures managed to do a pretty good job last year, they just took months to be effective and most places gave up before ever getting their case levels lower than really, really bad. What we're doing now is just loving insane because schools and businesses are still randomly shutting down despite having a ton of their staff vaccinated. We've decided to act like everything is normal right up until things gets really not normal at all on a hyper local level.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:46
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fosborb posted:america is back to normal I also use google maps to check places to know when is a good time to go and the stores have been absolutely packed in the evenings the past few weeks. Still empty early mornings though.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:47
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Blitter posted:
last I saw in BC they measured the Rt of B117 is 1.6 right now hehe
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Apr 11, 2021 02:48
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better things aren’t possible
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Apr 11, 2021 02:48
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brugroffil posted:Didn't it take a few months to eradicate in Australia? Yeah Victoria stayed in lockdown for about 4 months to get it to zero cases and then they eased restrictions fairly slowly. UnfortunateSexFart could tell you more as he lived through it.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:48
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Paradoxish posted:Yeah, a few people keep posting that we should have just had a hard lockdown for a few weeks or whatever and that's pretty nonsensical. am I just an old fart that remembers a bit of living under the cold war and people being ready for the real possibility that within 30 minutes of notice we'd have to hunker down for at least 1 month or more to survive the fallout?
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Apr 11, 2021 02:49
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Paradoxish posted:Yeah, a few people keep posting that we should have just had a hard lockdown for a few weeks or whatever and that's pretty nonsensical. Well typically before you lock things down you try to contact trace and squash isolated cases before you get to the point where you have to lockdown. Then once you open back up you use that same infrastructure to keep things stable until you reach eradication. Too bad we skipped that whole contact tracing phase entirely lol.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:49
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With the vaccines I think our half assed measures would be sufficiently effective if we hadn't totally given up on them.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:52
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Thoguh posted:With the vaccines I think our half assed measures would be sufficiently effective if we hadn't totally given up on them. I think you're right, and we'd also have to make the hard but right decision to not open schools for any physical schooling in significant amounts. Which is just something the administration is completely, incoherently hell bent on not doing.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:54
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locking down is the method to make contact tracing viable again after the virus has already run hog wild so since we are never gonna lock down, contact tracing is never gonna happen
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Apr 11, 2021 02:55
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Thoguh posted:With the vaccines I think our half assed measures would be sufficiently effective if we hadn't totally given up on them. Yeah, I agree. Keep the schools closed, encourage remote work where possible, and don't let people indoor dine and I think we're legitimately done with this by the end of summer. That's never going to happen, though. Even if things get wildly out of control we won't see more than extremely  restrictions in place for a week or two.Schools might be the one exception. Some schools around here are still being forced remote even after fully vaccinating their staff. It's just getting a lot more difficult to maintain the lie that this doesn't spread in schools now that everything else is open and lots of parents are getting their kids sick.
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Apr 11, 2021 02:59
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lol pissing away everything to open schools for a couple months, it owns.
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Apr 11, 2021 03:01
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mod sassinator posted:am I just an old fart that remembers a bit of living under the cold war and people being ready for the real possibility that within 30 minutes of notice we'd have to hunker down for at least 1 month or more to survive the fallout? as someone who never lived under the cold war, you are an old fart and retroactively very optimistic about American behavior after nukes fall also very optimistic that there isn't a current real possibility of 30 minutes' notice to hunker down for a month to survive fallout today it's not like the thousands of nukes on ICBMs and SLBMs have actually gone anywhere
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Apr 11, 2021 03:01
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mod sassinator posted:am I just an old fart that remembers a bit of living under the cold war and people being ready for the real possibility that within 30 minutes of notice we'd have to hunker down for at least 1 month or more to survive the fallout? really the plan post-ICBMs was just for you to die and the whole “shelter to hide from the fallout” was just theater to keep the populous calm. so some nice parallels imo
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Apr 11, 2021 03:04
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Blitter posted:
we're actually doing better than that chart implies. we are currently at 20.6 cases per 100,000 in the US. at this point, the chart is showing anywhere between 30 and 50 total cases / day / 100k  or, you know, we just gave up on testing
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Apr 11, 2021 03:04
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 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdrjzE1SE58
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Apr 11, 2021 03:07
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like there were some early plans to build fallout shelters deep under NYC to shelter everyone with 15 minutes notice for up to 3 months. but think tanks decided that it was cheaper to build more missiles and hope to nuke the soviets first so instead surviving the nuclear war became a personal responsibility the “ah but it’s cheaper if we kill more and make people buy their own masks” is that same sort of attitude
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Apr 11, 2021 03:08
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https://twitter.com/aslavitt46/status/1381054366338183168
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Apr 11, 2021 03:09
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Trabisnikof posted:really the plan post-ICBMs was just for you to die and the whole “shelter to hide from the fallout” was just theater to keep the populous calm. "LOOK, the Applebees is still standing! C'mon I can't see any radiation, what are you scared of!?? Mmmmm these riblets are really warm in my stomach...."
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Apr 11, 2021 03:10
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T+11 hours on moderna, and pretty much every joint in my body is aching.
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Apr 11, 2021 03:11
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SpaceCadetBob posted:T+11 hours on moderna, and pretty much every joint in my body is aching. even the peen joint?
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Apr 11, 2021 03:13
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fosborb posted:we're actually doing better than that chart implies. we are currently at 20.6 cases per 100,000 in the US. at this point, the chart is showing anywhere between 30 and 50 total cases / day / 100k that doesn’t seem to be true so far https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states positive percentage somewhat stable around 5% that’s not to say I don’t think the variants could have a big impact, they obviously could. I just don’t think we have a lot of good information yet on how vaccinations/previous infection/new mutations interact with each other
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Apr 11, 2021 03:14
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