[COVIDelta-19] Remember To Mask Up Between Bites

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [COVIDelta-19] Remember To Mask Up Between Bites

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

brugroffil posted:

https://twitter.com/aslavitt46/status/1381054366338183168

we need to average 5.5 million a day to get all adults in a year. 9 million to do every person. we're at least in the ballpark!

edit: oh that's just one shot. double those numbers if it's a 2 shotter

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:14

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# ? Apr 23, 2024 16:08

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

mod sassinator posted:

we need to average 5.5 million a day to get all adults in a year. 9 million to do every person. we're at least in the ballpark!

edit: oh that's just one shot. double those numbers if it's a 2 shotter

2.75m fully vaccinated a day would be a little over 100 days to get 300m vaccinated if we start from zero, what is your math here

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:17

Syntaxed: Feb 20, 2004

ho fan posted:

that doesn�t seem to be true so far

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

positive percentage somewhat stable around 5%

that�s not to say I don�t think the variants could have a big impact, they obviously could. I just don�t think we have a lot of good information yet on how vaccinations/previous infection/new mutations interact with each other

so what I�m seeing here is that we should open �er up??

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:19

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

fosborb posted:

god it even makes some sort of sense. everyone's looking at this projection and sees numbers just loving dropping across the country in Jan/Feb. that we're a month ahead of projections and vaccine production is only increasing. hell, the biden administration probably gave everyone their blessing to open er up, its all going better than we could possibly imagine!

but we're slowing down. we've caught back up with the projections and we're even at 70% of the cases being b117 now, which is what the lower bound of the CDC's estimate shows at this point.

the question is really, what's going to make b117 peak in a week. i don't think we have enough shots in arms to make that happen, but we'll see.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:20

Joey Steel: Jul 24, 2019

Complications posted:

also very optimistic that there isn't a current real possibility of 30 minutes' notice to hunker down for a month to survive fallout today

Very optimistic that the US government would give notice at all. :v:

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:22

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

oh I hosed up the math, I was thinking

200M / 365 days = 5.5M but it's actually 550k
330M / 365 days = 900k

so double those and a cool 2M people a day, all day every day across the country would be a nonstop yearly vaccine train.

i wonder what the typical flu shot rollout numbers are like

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:22

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

fosborb posted:

the question is really, what's going to make b117 peak in a week. i don't think we have enough shots in arms to make that happen, but we'll see.

WA state just brought kids up to 6th grade back in person last week, and is bringing the highschoolers back in another week or two lol

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:24

Steve Yun: Aug 7, 2003; I'm a parasitic landlord that needs to get a job instead of stealing worker's money. Make sure to remind me when I post.; Soiled Meat

Steve Yun posted:

LOS ANGELES VACCINE

City of Los Angeles just went 16 and up

https://carbonhealth.com/covid-19-vaccines/los-angeles

if you�re in Los Angeles it looks like appointment slots are WIDE open, but you can only book as far as a week into the future

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:27

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

ho fan posted:

that doesn�t seem to be true so far

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

positive percentage somewhat stable around 5%

that�s not to say I don�t think the variants could have a big impact, they obviously could. I just don�t think we have a lot of good information yet on how vaccinations/previous infection/new mutations interact with each other

the number of tests has decreased 30% since its 7 day avg peak on jan 15.

reduced testing does not necessarily mean higher positivity. if behavior stays exactly the same and availability does not alter demographics of those tested, then yes, it should.

but if we do things like turn major testing sites into vax clinics it will be harder to find new clusters in cities where this explodes, or if people just start blaming light coughs on seasonal allergies instead of freaking out because maybe it's covid (but its probably just seasonal allergies, because covid is over), those behavioral and environmental changes could absolutely drop both positives and positive rates while actual community spread continues to increase

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:28

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Google Butt posted:

lol pissing away everything to open schools for a couple months, it owns.

It's not even going to be a couple of months in a lot of places!

My city's whole district is two weeks on remote again because they couldn't keep it out of the high school and it was starting to pop up in the lower levels everywhere. And they loving tried. They dropped their quarantine rules to only students (not staff/faculty) within 6' for prolonged periods and that still wasn't enough to stay open for more than a few months.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:30

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

all the highway signs have stopped saying This Way to get Tested and now say This Way to get a Vaccine. i feel fatigued and i can't taste anything, but also i have hay fever. my nose is stuffed, probably that. no cough; no fever. and anyway, i dont have time to take off work to get a test. we're just getting back into the swing of things at work now

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:31

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

fosborb posted:

all the highway signs have stopped saying This Way to get Tested and now say This Way to get a Vaccine. i feel fatigued and i can't taste anything, but also i have hay fever. my nose is stuffed, probably that. no cough; no fever. and anyway, i dont have time to take off work to get a test. we're just getting back into the swing of things at work now

it's so funny reading local subreddits, who are fixated on the absolute # of positive tests and not the climbing test positivity rate. they are firmly in the simmer stage of boiling a frog, lol

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:33

Google Butt: Oct 4, 2005; Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

instead of a test cna I just get a vax reup whenever I feel down

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:34

Rah!: Feb 21, 2006

cash crab posted:

i just can't imagine coming out of the other side of this and not being deeply distrustful of every single person i meet from then on. people have been just so evil and self-serving

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:35

Salvor_Hardin: Sep 13, 2005; I want to go protest.; Nap Ghost

Moderna shot 1 gave me a sore arm for a day and then nothing. But today is a week later and I am tired and sore, particular chest/lung pain.

I am basically housebound so I can't imagine its something else. Is a ~1week delay symptoms a thing?

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:39

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

ho fan posted:

that doesn�t seem to be true so far

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

positive percentage somewhat stable around 5%

that�s not to say I don�t think the variants could have a big impact, they obviously could. I just don�t think we have a lot of good information yet on how vaccinations/previous infection/new mutations interact with each other

also, yeah it's stable. stably rising from 3.9% 7 day average on March 13 to 5.0% yesterday, 27 days later. we wiped out every decrease since Feb 20 and are still going up, with increasing cases too.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:39

Blitter: Mar 16, 2011

fosborb posted:

the question is really, what's going to make b117 peak in a week. i don't think we have enough shots in arms to make that happen, but we'll see.

The way it ripped upward from 35% in the UK is fuckin terrifying.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:44

Gio: Jun 20, 2005

Salvor_Hardin posted:

Moderna shot 1 gave me a sore arm for a day and then nothing. But today is a week later and I am tired and sore, particular chest/lung pain.

I am basically housebound so I can't imagine its something else. Is a ~1week delay symptoms a thing?

some nerd in d&d told me yeah it can happen.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:44

salient: Jan 2, 2021

fosborb posted:

the number of tests has decreased 30% since its 7 day avg peak on jan 15.

reduced testing does not necessarily mean higher positivity. if behavior stays exactly the same and availability does not alter demographics of those tested, then yes, it should.

but if we do things like turn major testing sites into vax clinics it will be harder to find new clusters in cities where this explodes, or if people just start blaming light coughs on seasonal allergies instead of freaking out because maybe it's covid (but its probably just seasonal allergies, because covid is over), those behavioral and environmental changes could absolutely drop both positives and positive rates while actual community spread continues to increase

also worth keeping in mind that a decent chunk of negative tests are from surveillance testing done by universities

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:50

Harold Stassen: Jan 24, 2016

Blitter posted:

The way it ripped upward from 35% in the UK is fuckin terrifying.

exponents rule!!!

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:50

Stairmaster: Jun 8, 2012

mod sassinator posted:

am I just an old fart that remembers a bit of living under the cold war and people being ready for the real possibility that within 30 minutes of notice we'd have to hunker down for at least 1 month or more to survive the fallout?

if you were in an area where that'd actually be nesscary you're probably gonna die because your basement isnt gonna protect your rear end.

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html

quote:

Early 7 August: Deposition of fallout in Texas is generally over with, and 80% of the radiation that will result from this fallout has already been emitted. Fire-produced pollutants are noticeable throughout the state--including smoke, smog, and various hazardous chemicals--with urban areas still burning.

12 August: About 90% of the radiation that will result from fallout in Texas has been emitted. The average radiation dose in Texas is about 500 rem; by comparison, a dose of 100 rem in less than a week causes radiation sickness in half of people exposed; 50% of people exposed to 450 rem in a short period will die within 30 days; and a dose of 1,500 rem will kill nearly all people exposed within 10 days. Persons who stayed indoors the whole week generally cut their dose by 70%; staying in designated areas of marked fallout shelters would reduce dosage by 99%.

For the entire U.S., the average dose in the open from fallout is 1,200 rem; by comparison the average for the Soviet Union is 150 rem. The difference comes from the larger average yield of Soviet weapons, the larger size of the Soviet Union, the frequently "dirtier" nature of Soviet weapons, and the fact that more Soviet warheads are exploded on the ground (increasing fallout). For Europe the average dose in the open is 500 rem. This fallout is of course unevenly distributed: in the U.S. the dose exceeds 1,800 rem in about 8% of the land area, and the dose exceeds 500 rem in about 1% of the U.S.S.R.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:51

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Judakel posted:

Berkeley is a top school. I didnt care about my high school graduation but i cared about berkeley because it was hard work. He should be a good boyfriend and drop it

lol you nerds with your brand name schools that aren�t special at all

# ? Apr 11, 2021 03:59

OK baizuo: Mar 19, 2021; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Trabisnikof posted:

like there were some early plans to build fallout shelters deep under NYC to shelter everyone with 15 minutes notice for up to 3 months.

but think tanks decided that it was cheaper to build more missiles and hope to nuke the soviets first so instead surviving the nuclear war became a personal responsibility

the “ah but it’s cheaper if we kill more and make people buy their own masks” is that same sort of attitude

A nuclear war could have been survivable if it happened before the development of fusion bombs and ICBMs, but that was a pretty brief window. Ivy Mike was in '52

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:00

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

salient posted:

also worth keeping in mind that a decent chunk of negative tests are from surveillance testing done by universities

another issue is that some states report number of people tested, and some report number of tests administered. conceivably not a problem if they're consistent, but states have been switching methodologies and prior data is not being revised

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:03

Mustached Demon: Nov 12, 2016

Trabisnikof posted:

really the plan post-ICBMs was just for you to die and the whole “shelter to hide from the fallout” was just theater to keep the populous calm.

so some nice parallels imo

Honestly, in a full arsenal exchange you'd be lucky to get blown apart terminator 2 style

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:04

Gio: Jun 20, 2005

just thinking about the republican bill in MI thst says restaurants can close only with a 20% positivity rate for 14 days. gonna be real funny when that actually happens somewhere!

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:05

Rah!: Feb 21, 2006

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVcAyEMM4Cc

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:06

mycomancy: Oct 16, 2016

Gio posted:

just thinking about the republican bill in MI thst says restaurants can close only with a 20% positivity rate for 14 days. gonna be real funny when that actually happens somewhere!

No you see the positivity rate has to be exactly 20%, if it goes higher that doesn't count.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:06

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Gio posted:

just thinking about the republican bill in MI thst says restaurants can close only with a 20% positivity rate for 14 days. gonna be real funny when that actually happens somewhere!

even blue states ignored these rules and just did whatever when they hit their targets that they intentionally designed to be unreachable

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:12

Shipon: Nov 7, 2005

Mustached Demon posted:

Honestly, in a full arsenal exchange you'd be lucky to get blown apart terminator 2 style

yeah gently caress being in a fallout shelter for that, i'd rather be at the center of a blast so i would never feel it or have to live through the aftermath

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:13

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009; Fun Shoe

facetoucher cat posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdrjzE1SE58

lol

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:14

Asproigerosis: Mar 13, 2013; insufferable

Oh neat a patient that probably has GBS after getting the j&j slut juice

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:19

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

mawarannahr posted:

lol you nerds with your brand name schools that aren�t special at all

they're special in the sense that they get you better connections, which is all that matters in america

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:20

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

Asproigerosis posted:

Oh neat a patient that probably has GBS after getting the j&j slut juice

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:20

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

Asproigerosis posted:

Oh neat a patient that probably has GBS after getting the j&j slut juice

Never gbs

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:23

poll plane variant: Jan 12, 2021; by sebmojo

Asproigerosis posted:

Oh neat a patient that probably has GBS after getting the j&j slut juice

that was the worst disease in space station 13

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:27

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Accretionist posted:

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:39

salient: Jan 2, 2021

revisiting some johns hopkins md/mph greatest hits

quote:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

We�ll Have Herd Immunity by April

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it�s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it�s harder for it to spread�and that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases.

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:43

Mustached Demon: Nov 12, 2016

Asproigerosis posted:

Oh neat a patient that probably has GBS after getting the j&j slut juice

hope their symptoms stay limited to the osha thread and maybe the Costco one too

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:44

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# ? Apr 23, 2024 16:08

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

salient posted:

revisiting some johns hopkins md/mph greatest hits

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8eQR5DMous

# ? Apr 11, 2021 04:45

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