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weekly font
Dec 1, 2004


Everytime I try to fly I fall
Without my wings
I feel so small
Guess I need you baby...



zoux posted:

If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it.

True, but you won't see me believing that 49-49 means anything but R 53-47 until those elections are over

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Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

zoux posted:

If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it.

You haven’t been paying much attention. The whining about how bad Biden is started 8 months ago.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Final 538 poll aggregate in GA was B+1.2 which is pretty good, less than a percent off and in the right direction :grin:

Senate polls had a dead heat too

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328918812041809920

If he's right that's a 9 or 10 seat majority

zoux fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Nov 18, 2020

SoggyBobcat
Oct 2, 2013

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1328911571091935233

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

zoux posted:

If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it.

Whole forum will be on Joe Manchin-watch.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

zoux posted:

If he's right that's a 9 or 10 seat majority

Which is better than it sounds because Nancy Pelosi, for everything that can be said against her, is very good at keeping the Dem majority unified in terms of voting.

SousaphoneColossus
Feb 16, 2004

There are a million reasons to ruin things.

zoux posted:

Final 538 poll aggregate in GA was B+1.2 which is pretty good, less than a percent off and in the right direction :grin:

Senate polls had a dead heat too

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328918812041809920

If he's right that's a 9 or 10 seat majority

Worth pointing out that IA-02 is crazy close. The dem is behind by 48 votes (.01%) out of 393672 cast. Wouldn’t be unheard of for the recount to swing it the other way.


Edit: fixed %

SousaphoneColossus fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Nov 18, 2020

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

zoux posted:

If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it.

I honestly wonder if Manchin doesn't flip in that scenario.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Inverted Offensive Battle: Acupuncture Attacks Convert To 3D Penetration Tactics Taking Advantage of Deep Battle Opportunities

Pobrecito posted:

I honestly wonder if Manchin doesn't flip in that scenario.

I doubt it. He'd lose the seniority and power he has with the Dems, and then get taken out by a more crazy Republican in the next primary.

BabyFur Denny
Mar 18, 2003

Pobrecito posted:

I honestly wonder if Manchin doesn't flip in that scenario.

As a dem he would be extremely powerful, anything that gets passed in the next two years would have to go past him.
As a rep he would be one of 51 screeching old fools blocking anything from getting done.

What do you think?

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Handsome Ralph posted:

Just a heads up, this thread is going to be closed within the next few days with a rebooted thread to follow shortly thereafter. If you haven't reached out to either myself or GreyjoyBastard or Majorian with any suggestions you have for the reboot, please feel free to do so. Thanks!

Someone add that post about organizations (not candidates) in Georgia to donate to the OP. Or really just link it now so I can find it.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Yeah no matter how bad Manchin is I don't see what incentive he has to formally turn coat. It's not like the GOP's likely to welcome him with open arms and not immediately primary the poo poo out of him - maybe if he went full psycho Trumpist, maybe, but if he were inclined to go that far I don't know why he wouldn't have done so already.

wet_goods
Jun 21, 2004

I'M BAAD!

Lol now let's unskew them polls

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Spiritus Nox posted:

What will happen to us in this thread if these numbers turnout to be basically accurate and/or underestimate the dems

They had Trump +2 on nov 1st in GA
Trump +1 in FL on nov 2nd

So their polls were some of the best

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

Spiritus Nox posted:

Yeah no matter how bad Manchin is I don't see what incentive he has to formally turn coat. It's not like the GOP's likely to welcome him with open arms and not immediately primary the poo poo out of him - maybe if he went full psycho Trumpist, maybe, but if he were inclined to go that far I don't know why he wouldn't have done so already.
In 2016 Manchin said that he'd remain a Democrat as long as he was in the Senate fwiw. Senate Republicans have been trying to get him to switch since 2010 and he hasn't budged.

He did vote for impeachment, voted against Trump tax cuts and against repealing Obamacare, voted to preserve funding for Planned Parenthood and is surprisingly moderate about gun control so he's persona non grata among Republicans. WV Republicans are 100% hardcore Trump cultists who are viciously opposed to Democrats in government. Manchin's opponent in the 2018 senate race even called on him to resign from his Senate leadership position because something something Obama Clinton Schumer gun rights which led to this fun quote

"Joe Manchin posted:

I don’t give a poo poo, you understand?” Manchin told a Charleston Gazette-Mail reporter when asked about Morrisey’s call. “I just don’t give a poo poo. Don’t care if I get elected, don’t care if I get defeated, how about that?

“If they think because I’m up for election, that I can be wrangled into voting for poo poo that I don’t like and can’t explain, they’re all crazy.

“I’m not scared of an election, let’s put it that way. Elections do not bother me or scare me. I’m going to continue to do the same thing I’ve always done, extremely independent.”

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

zoux posted:

If, after all this, Democrats end up with a slim trifecta, I don’t think even we will find a way to be miserable about it.

somewhere in the distance you hear the sound of joe manchin sharpening his teeth

e:fb

e2: joe manchin had the same fetish for hatred as joe lieberman. He exists to consume the despair of both parties. He would never switch parties even if he could, he would just fade into the background as a republican.

Dr. Fishopolis fucked around with this message at 08:10 on Nov 18, 2020

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

"According to Wikipedia" there is a black hole that emits zionist hawking radiation where my brain should have been

I really should just shut the fuck up and stop posting forever
College Slice
At the end of the day while clearly a conservative Manchin is still a Democrat and thus has no reason to switch over.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

e2: joe manchin had the same fetish for hatred as joe lieberman. He exists to consume the despair of both parties. He would never switch parties even if he could, he would just fade into the background as a republican.

I mean it's different when the conservative Democrat is from West Virginia instead of Connecticut. If the only thing Manchin did was vote for a Democratic majority leader in a 50-50 senate it would still be a pretty big improvement over whatever chud the state would have elected in his place. Joe Lieberman had no such excuse.

Craig K
Nov 10, 2016

puck
joe manchin uses the word "poo poo" more often than i do, tbh

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Which is better than it sounds because Nancy Pelosi, for everything that can be said against her, is very good at keeping the Dem majority unified in terms of voting.

Is that really true anymore? Compared to Republican solidarity?

Urethane
Dec 21, 2004

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Which is better than it sounds because Nancy Pelosi, for everything that can be said against her, is very good at keeping the Dem majority unified in terms of voting.

lol, no

she is not "very good" at that and if she was its a poo poo piece of work anyway

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Jaxyon posted:

Is that really true anymore? Compared to Republican solidarity?

Yes. Nancy Pelosi is still very good at getting the party to vote in lockstep.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/04/2019-vote-studies-pelosi-sets-record-holding-caucus-in-line/

For some reason (I could guess why) it's a D&D-ism that Nancy Pelosi is horribly ineffective.

whydirt
Apr 18, 2001


Gaz Posting Brigade :c00lbert:

Booyah- posted:

lol, no

she is not "very good" at that and if she was its a poo poo piece of work anyway

It’s literally one of the most important jobs a speaker has. It hasn’t mattered as much recently because the GOP controls the senate.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Booyah- posted:

lol, no

she is not "very good" at that and if she was its a poo poo piece of work anyway

what? she's in clear control of her caucus and has been since 2006. say what you will about nancy but her whip is legit

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

i say swears online posted:

what? she's in clear control of her caucus and has been since 2006. say what you will about nancy but her whip is legit

You could probably argue that one of the reasons they stay in line is that she doesn't push them too hard to do anything risky.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Murgos posted:

You could probably argue that one of the reasons they stay in line is that she doesn't push them too hard to do anything risky.

one would think that would invite dissent from the left flank which essentially has not happened in fourteen years

Elotana
Dec 12, 2003

and i'm putting it all on the goddamn expense account
I'm not convinced that this is due to Nancy's particular skill rather than the Dem caucus simply having fewer crazies. I'm also concerned that leadership is uniformly over 80 and the youngest committee chairman is 59.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1328705537454780416

While he was always gunning for the Senate this dynamic also probably played a role in Kennedy swinging at Markey now instead of waiting for him or Warren to retire (and it's definitely why Pelosi encouraged him).

Elotana fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Nov 18, 2020

Elotana
Dec 12, 2003

and i'm putting it all on the goddamn expense account

i say swears online posted:

one would think that would invite dissent from the left flank which essentially has not happened in fourteen years
There's no real way for the left flank to express dissent beyond tweets. Bills essentially don't go through regular order any more, they're just unveiled by leadership, which immediately suspends the rules and forces an up-or-down vote. They could tank bills by voting no but that would empower Republicans, not them. The centrist flank at least has the option to threaten with discharge petitions.

whydirt
Apr 18, 2001


Gaz Posting Brigade :c00lbert:

Elotana posted:

I'm not convinced that this is due to Nancy's particular skill rather than the Dem caucus simply having fewer crazies. I'm also concerned that leadership is uniformly over 80 and the youngest committee chairman is 59.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1328705537454780416

The Dem causus has historically also been more ideologically diverse than the GOP in the past 20 years, but as of the last time I checked Dems are slowly becoming more homogeneous as issues become more nationalized. Not having a good whip count is how you end up like McConnell where John McCain drops a no vote on repealing Obamacare out of nowhere, which is great and hilarious for us, but not something I'd want to see on the other side of the aisle.

The aging leadership and no apparent mentoring/transition program is inexcusable though.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

James Garfield posted:

I mean it's different when the conservative Democrat is from West Virginia instead of Connecticut. If the only thing Manchin did was vote for a Democratic majority leader in a 50-50 senate it would still be a pretty big improvement over whatever chud the state would have elected in his place. Joe Lieberman had no such excuse.

Yeah, Joe Lieberman's seat is now occupied by Chris Murphy, who has been pretty cool.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

whydirt posted:

The Dem causus has historically also been more ideologically diverse than the GOP in the past 20 years, but as of the last time I checked Dems are slowly becoming more homogeneous as issues become more nationalized. Not having a good whip count is how you end up like McConnell where John McCain drops a no vote on repealing Obamacare out of nowhere, which is great and hilarious for us, but not something I'd want to see on the other side of the aisle.

The aging leadership and no apparent mentoring/transition program is inexcusable though.

i agree with all of this

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Grape posted:

Yeah, Joe Lieberman's seat is now occupied by Chris Murphy, who has been pretty cool.

and ned lamont is governor lol

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
So we were talking about this a bit yesterday:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328901086883799041

This brings the total to:
Biden 223,936 59.1%
Trump 145,290 38.4%

2016 was:
Hillary 188,592 54.2%
Trump 136,582 39.3%
Johnson 13,305 3.8%

2012:
Obama 178,491 57.8%
Romney 124,769 40.4%

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1329020941964337152

Incredible for Pompeo to break with the president on this, we've been waiting for a top-ranked republican to come out against...oh wait

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1329024973055385600

Wasn't this like 80% last week or something

zoux fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Nov 18, 2020

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

i say swears online posted:

and ned lamont is governor lol

It is funny to me that in contrast to the rest of the country, the down ticket Republicans actually did mostly pretty terribly here this year. The head of the local GOP party is even like stepping down lol.

Meanwhile those loving Massholes still have a Republican governor.

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Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


Okay with it being more than two weeks past the election and this thread essentially turning into USPOL 2, we're going to close up shop here and reboot the thread in the coming days.

If you have any suggestions for the new thread, I encourage you to PM them to me.

Thanks all!

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