Polliwonks: Wasserman, his eyes uncovered!

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CelestialScribe: Jan 16, 2008

Calling absolute bullshit on those polls. No loving way.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:28

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 10:09

Toaster Beef: Jan 23, 2007; that's not nature's way

Ohio polling has been so incredibly fucky.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:29

Spiritus Nox: Sep 2, 2011

Ohio aside, the PA results are good in a way that's entirely believable. Get PA back over +5 in the aggregates and the door is very nearly shut on Donald at this point (at least without nightmare fuckery but hey one thing with a time)

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:29

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Inshallah

That Ohio news is very good though it could well be an outlier. Those will happen at times, of course, but the definition of an outlier isn't "a poll result in Biden's direction."

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:30

exquisite tea: Apr 21, 2007; Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."

Rea posted:

Oh yeah no I'm not dismissing them, but that OH result strikes me as unbelievable. That's a 12 point shift from the final 2016 result, that can't be right.

Bush won Virginia by 8 points in 2004 before Obama won it by 4% four years later. Dramatic swings like that can happen all the time on a per-state basis, especially when they just experienced a dramatic swing in the other direction last cycle.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:30

Rea: Apr 5, 2011; Komi-san won.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1309256733479534593

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:31

Zore: Sep 21, 2010; willfully illiterate, aggressively miserable sourpuss whose sole raison d�etre is to put other people down for liking the wrong things

Yeah, Fox has put out insanely pro-Biden polls in general.

Their last set was Wisconsin +8, North Carolina +4 and Arizona +9 back in early September.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:34

Crows Turn Off: Jan 7, 2008

Is Biden still underperforming with Latinxs in FL? Not sure if additional polling has shown the same.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:37

Spiritus Nox: Sep 2, 2011

Crows Turn Off posted:

Is Biden still underperforming with Latinxs in FL? Not sure if additional polling has shown the same.

It's always hard to talk with certainty about these kinds of crosstabs, but I believe the current slate of polls generally have him doing a bit better than his nadir a couple weeks or so ago but still behind Hillary/his latino numbers in other states.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:39

Sarcastro: Dec 28, 2000; Elite member of the Grammar Nazi Squad that

Rea posted:

Oh yeah no I'm not dismissing them, but that OH result strikes me as unbelievable. That's a 12 point shift from the final 2016 result, that can't be right.

People keep saying stuff like this, but 2016 was an equally large shift from 2012, so it's not remotely unbelievable. That said, we do live in a cursed hellworld right now, so pessimism is understandable and I share it, but states can and do swing all the time.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:39

Spiritus Nox: Sep 2, 2011

Worth noting that Biden was up in the Ohio aggregates for a good chunk of the year per 538. It's not like a good pollster giving him good numbers is some wildly unprecedented event.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:42

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

Zore posted:

and Maine did by 11 which let Trump get ME-2

At least we made weed legal so election night wasn't a total loss. We were already used to six years of LePage too.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:45

G1mby: Jun 8, 2014

Still, one more to toss on the pile. Lets see if it gets replicated

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:50

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

I hate our idiotic electoral system where any of this granular nonsense matters

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:51

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

sexpig by night posted:

yea they're a solid pollster but even solid pollsters can have outliers (and, in fact, SHOULD at some points), those are all way too good to be true, is this their first shift to LV screens in those states, if not, how big a jump is that for Biden?

Possibly trying to model vote by mail. I saw a huge increase in voters in the race I did.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:54

Grondoth: Feb 18, 2011

brugroffil posted:

I hate our idiotic electoral system where any of this granular nonsense matters

I yearn for a day to be free, where the only consideration is "who will more people vote for?"

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:54

Dapper_Swindler: Feb 14, 2012; Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Rea posted:

Those are too good to be true. They have to be. That OH result especially, jesus.

fox is one of the best pollsters apparently. id probably say they are accuratish but who knows until the 3rd.

Rea posted:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1309256733479534593

i am hopeful about PA. i see alot of trump flags/signs but many have been taken down since a few months ago.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:56

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

brugroffil posted:

I hate our idiotic electoral system where any of this granular nonsense matters

As has been pointed out by a shitload of people, this doesn't make the rural vote matter more, it makes it so that the swing states matter more, and those move around if vaguely predictably.

# ? Sep 24, 2020 23:57

Epinephrine: Nov 7, 2008

brugroffil posted:

I hate our idiotic electoral system where any of this granular nonsense matters

In a true popular vote, we'd still be talking about granular nonsense. Crosstabs would be reliable and everyone would know which major media markets the race was close in.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:01

TwoQuestions: Aug 26, 2011

I don't know how to feel. Fox has had a huge Biden lean this while time, but then again nobody's been looking at Ohio for a while. They also had Ohio bang on in 2012, rip Karl Rove.

I really don't know what to feel. I guess wait for more polling?

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:03

exquisite tea: Apr 21, 2007; Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."

Nessus posted:

As has been pointed out by a shitload of people, this doesn't make the rural vote matter more, it makes it so that the swing states matter more, and those move around if vaguely predictably.

High polarization, nationalizing of political parties and electoral math have now essentially absolished the concept of battleground states altogether in favor of one ur-state. This year the only state that matters is Pennsylvania.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:03

Anno: May 10, 2017; I'm going to drown! For no reason at all!

I live in a neighborhood outside of Columbus that Biden presumably needs to crush if he�s going to contend in Ohio. In the last week or two it�s gone from a few local signs to Biden/Harris signs every few houses. I don�t think I�ve seen a sign supporting dipshit. Obviously who knows, but it�s a small measure of optimism in an otherwise bleak year.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:09

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

Nessus posted:

As has been pointed out by a shitload of people, this doesn't make the rural vote matter more, it makes it so that the swing states matter more, and those move around if vaguely predictably.

For sure. None of the justifications for it aside from "politically convenient for the party I like" hold up to any scrutiny or historical evaluation

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:10

Grondoth: Feb 18, 2011

When it works the way people hope, it's a quirk and an anachronism. In 2016 it broke and did what was always possible but hadn't ever happened, installed someone who got smashed in the popular vote. 3 million!

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:14

Bullfrog: Nov 5, 2012

here in my town in wisconsin the number of biden signs that have appeared in the last few weeks is ridiculous, im talking like whole stretches of streets

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:20

Murgos: Oct 21, 2010

WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1309253968304828416?s=19

Well, this is a good sign. Desperation bragging about things that should be taken for granted is a surely coming out of a place of strength.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:20

Bootleg Trunks: Jun 12, 2020

Does OANN do polls?

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:27

evilweasel: Aug 24, 2002

Bootleg Trunks posted:

Does OANN do polls?

They do. They hyped up a big Florida poll that was going to show the real trump vote. Then they got the results. Suddenly they didn�t want to release it.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:29

Pick: Jul 19, 2009; Nap Ghost

Anno posted:

I live in a neighborhood outside of Columbus that Biden presumably needs to crush if he�s going to contend in Ohio. In the last week or two it�s gone from a few local signs to Biden/Harris signs every few houses. I don�t think I�ve seen a sign supporting dipshit. Obviously who knows, but it�s a small measure of optimism in an otherwise bleak year.

To make any sense of the Ohio swing, I imagine this hypothetical: a completely imagined Hillary v. Biden presidential contest. (Let's say something wacky happened and it's two Democrats with their professed platforms, and somehow there's no Republican.) Who wins in Ohio? Oh. I see.

--

anyway, this CNBC article from Feb 11 is something I flash back to from time to time.

quote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/paul-ryan-joe-biden-can-beat-trump-but-he-wont-win-the-democratic-nomination.html

�I�d say he�s probably the most likely one to have a chance at beating Donald Trump, but I don�t see Joe getting the nomination, I just don�t see him getting there. I think it�s going be one of these progressives, which I think will be much easier to beat,� [Paul Ryan] told CNBC�s Hadley Gamble at the annual Milken Conference in Abu Dhabi.

Speaking as a former congressman from Wisconsin, the one-time vice presidential hopeful outlined three key states the parties will have to fight over to win in 2020: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In those states, particularly Ryan�s home state, �I think Joe is probably the hardest to beat, because it�s going to come down to the suburban (voter), it�s going to be the suburbanite that�ll basically be the difference-maker,� he said.

[...]

Ryan lauded what he felt were Trump�s economic achievements, noting the sweeping tax reform and cuts package delivered under his leadership in 2017, the first since 1969. �If Trump were to lose it would be because of a really bad economy due to a crisis,� he said.

But citing the lowest U.S. unemployment levels in some 50 years coupled with rapid wage growth, he contended, �It�s really hard to run a contest against a president sitting on such a strong economy.�

Pick fucked around with this message at 00:36 on Sep 25, 2020

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:34

Finicums Wake: Mar 13, 2017; Can't post for 8 years!

[election waiting room]

Me: [chanting] polls polls�

Other voters: polls POLLS

Wonk: [pounding clipboard] POLLS, POLLS, POLLS!

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:37

CAT INTERCEPTOR: Nov 9, 2004; Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

TwoQuestions posted:

I don't know how to feel. Fox has had a huge Biden lean this while time, but then again nobody's been looking at Ohio for a while. They also had Ohio bang on in 2012, rip Karl Rove.

I really don't know what to feel. I guess wait for more polling?

Just throw it onto the pile and use the average. TBH the fact pollsters that are trying to be accurate coming up with a lot of headscratchers is good as it shows no herding is going on - what I think is kinda becoming clearer is the states Trump unexpectedly in 2016 are almost out of his reach and places that should be safe for him are def. not.

Also the chances of consistent polling errors in Trump's favor of 2016 wont happen - it's probably more the case the polls may well be understating Biden. Outside of unknowable and uncountable factors like voting fuckery I wouldnt want to be GOP

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:38

Pick: Jul 19, 2009; Nap Ghost

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Just throw it onto the pile and use the average. TBH the fact pollsters that are trying to be accurate coming up with a lot of headscratchers is good as it shows no herding is going on - what I think is kinda becoming clearer is the states Trump unexpectedly in 2016 are almost out of his reach and places that should be safe for him are def. not.

Also the chances of consistent polling errors in Trump's favor of 2016 wont happen - it's probably more the case the polls may well be understating Biden. Outside of unknowable and uncountable factors like voting fuckery I wouldnt want to be GOP

The polls will be wrong in a unique way in 2020 which could be good for either. Trump has a strong chance.

However, this 538 article is interesting. It talks about what we'd infer from state-level stuff.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/

quote:

Since we know how the states vote relative to the nation, we can use state polls to estimate national results. Florida, for instance, is typically about 3 points more Republican than the average state. So if Biden were ahead by 2 points in Florida, it would imply that he was ahead by 5 points nationally.

Why bother with this when we can just look at national polls directly?

Well, one good reason is that if used properly, state polls can actually give you a better projection of the national popular vote than national polls themselves! In 2012, for instance, our model � which then, like now, mostly uses state polls to forecast the national popular vote � showed then-President Barack Obama winning the popular vote by approximately 3 points, even though his lead in national polls was only about 1 point. Indeed, the state polls provided the better estimate of the national popular vote than the national polls did. (Obama won the popular vote that year by around 4 points.)

Keep in mind that there is a lot of information contained in those state polls. They may do a better job of estimating the preferences of demographic groups that are more common in their states � Cuban Americans in Florida, or Mormons in Utah, for example � than national polls ever could. And at least this year, the pollsters conducting state polls tend to be more highly rated than those doing national polls, especially with pollsters like New York Times/Siena College and our colleagues at ABC News1 doing more state polling this year than in the past.

So let me run you through a simplified version of how our model uses those state polls. It�s similar to the example about Florida above. In each state, our model calculates the national margin based on a state�s partisan lean, plus Biden�s current lead or deficit in our polling average. Here is that calculation for a broad group of purple states (or congressional district in the case of Nebraska) � everything on the spectrum from purple-red (maroon?) states like Texas to purple-blue (indigo?) states like New Mexico. I�ll show you the national margin based both on how a state voted in 2016 and how it voted in 2012 � in some cases, there are significant differences.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:42

Epinephrine: Nov 7, 2008

Finicums Wake posted:

[election waiting room]

Me: [chanting] polls polls�

Other voters: polls POLLS

Wonk: [pounding clipboard] POLLS, POLLS, POLLS!

You're not wrong, but you need another poll between polls and POLLS. Recent polling suggests . . .

# ? Sep 25, 2020 00:58

Heck Yes! Loam!: Nov 15, 2004; a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

Was this doozy posted

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1309282722578419712

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:07

G1mby: Jun 8, 2014

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Was this doozy posted

Yeah, last couple of pages of chat.

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:08

Glumwheels: Jan 25, 2003

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Was this doozy posted

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1309282722578419712

That�s some poll alright and from a reputable pollster. Nate Cohn was mewling that Trump had a very good day today for state polls and Biden had a bad day (I think because of that ABC poll).

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:14

Heck Yes! Loam!: Nov 15, 2004; a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

How confident are we in the likely voter screens?

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:16

TwoQuestions: Aug 26, 2011

In other news, Emerson thinks Biden is 3 points ahead of Trump nationally, but I understand this is better than it was?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1309275618526232576

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:16

Delthalaz: Mar 5, 2003; Slippery Tilde

https://twitter.com/charliearchy/status/1309285177852456961?s=21

Typical. Biden supporters are LOSERS who can�t even get ahead in the Greatest Economy In Our Great Nation�s History

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:17

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 10:09

Seven Hundred Bee: Nov 1, 2006

all of the stories about early voting suggest a historic blue wave, but we'll see... but as much as we talk about polls being off, its just as likely the polls are off in trumps favor

# ? Sep 25, 2020 01:19

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