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Somfin posted:Sounds like good, justifiable rules that aren't designed to keep power in the hands of the stable and monied Well known person with no possible source of funds to run a campaign, Kanye West. But seriously, gimmick spoiler candidates not being able to qualify is good not only for Trump losing, but the interests of any meaningful semblance of democracy. But I repeat myself.
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Aug 19, 2020 05:22
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Even a D + 5 district can tell you a lot when it polls D + 15.
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Aug 31, 2020 04:50
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Glumwheels posted:I don’t know how the vast majority of Americans aren’t exhausted of Trump by now. +8 is about as good a final result as things can get in this country right now. I mean, probably Obama would be +10 at this point but the point is there’s a pretty hard ceiling. But what really sucks is how unlikely it is to keep that edge in the midterms, but there’s no alternative to playing to win, especially in a redistricting year.
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Sep 2, 2020 16:24
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:what the gently caress? people got drafted into Vietnam. Should have had bone spurs.
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Sep 4, 2020 21:29
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Glumwheels posted:I know, “defund” or “abolish” are not popular but police reforms are widely popular. The messaging should change to gain more support. Relevant polling data from Minneapolis. (I.e. not including suburbs and rural). There’s definitely a limit to how far most people are willing to go. That’s why Republicans keep harping on this. https://m.startribune.com/poll-cuts-to-minneapolis-police-ranks-lack-majority-support/572119932/
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Sep 6, 2020 19:47
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Maria Juana posted:Reforming isn't and shouldn't be the goal of the protests, who gives a gently caress about what sounds good to people that answer polls? Probably people discussing polling in the polls thread?
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Sep 6, 2020 19:48
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The Justice in Policing Act ends qualified immunity.
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Sep 6, 2020 19:59
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Overwhelming public support is objectively not what the Minneapolis polling, posted above, showed.
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Sep 7, 2020 19:29
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VitalSigns posted:Well the argument appears to be that if anyone even says "hey let's talk about defunding the police" Trump will win Why would anyone want to put something on the ballot they don’t agree with?
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Sep 7, 2020 20:17
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:frequently because they wish to get the people who care about that issue to the voting booths, as historically occurred in 2004 and 2006 when the republican party, in order to get shy republicans to the polls, had state republicans put some red-meat initiatives on the ballot in order to make sure all the evangelicals were in the neighborhood to vote for the top of the ballot while they reaffirmed that abortion should be banned. The Republican Party wanted to pass those things though.
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Sep 7, 2020 21:31
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VitalSigns posted:what They could have concluded it was the right thing to do. They could be more afraid of getting primaried by activists (which only takes a motivated but small group of voters) than losing to a Republican, especially in the immediate atmosphere two weeks after George Floyd. Could be a lot of things. But they’ve done some walking back on their pledge in the last couple months, and wouldn’t you know it that’s also the time we got the actual polling. The mayor also is popularly elected and figured abolishing the police is political suicide- maybe he’s got a better sense of public opinion... after all, it’s more impressive to get elected mayor than to the council, right? But, there’s no need to argue whose political instincts are “better” for purposes of this thread because we have polling and not the gut feelings of various politicians to look at.
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Sep 8, 2020 02:37
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If Trump loses Florida he already lost PA/MI/WI. Florida gonna Florida. Also this isn’t something there that’s unique to 2020. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/285356-rick-scott-pollsters-show-strong-hispanic-support-helped-victory
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Sep 8, 2020 19:22
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Nessus posted:It is completely mystifying to me why Donald Trump would go on the phone with Bob Woodward and drop my_crimes.mp3. As for releasing it, Woodward should have done something earlier, so gently caress him for doing that. But also, gently caress Donald Trump! I think they're both bad, though Trump had way more power over the situation in general. He’s a narcissist OP, and basically if anyone who’s anyone gives him a chance he won’t be able to shut up. Like the “Gorilla Channel” book guy basically just sat around the White House waiting for Trump to walk by and start doing an unscheduled interview, right? yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 09:54 on Sep 10, 2020 |
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Sep 10, 2020 06:41
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Trump def running out of time, and I’m actually getting hopeful that if there is any last minute swing this time it will be against the whiny rear end in a top hat who’s presiding over a bunch of crises and can’t shut up.
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Sep 10, 2020 13:43
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TwoQuestions posted:Military families are generally a lot more right-wing and troop-worshipping than the troops themselves, so this looks accurate to me. Idk how they define household but another thing is all things being equal, single people and younger people are more democratic, and there are plenty of both in the military. A bunch of married people in the ballpark of middle age are now the Republican key demographic since they literally ripped the mask off about leaving the elderly to fend for themselves.
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Sep 10, 2020 21:05
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cr0y posted:Wait what https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_cadence#%22Jody_calls%22
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Sep 10, 2020 21:10
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VitalSigns posted:I feel like complaining that third parties should be starting small with local elections if they want to be taken seriously would be a more credible argument if the major parties weren't passing laws to restrict ballot access for those elections and suing to get third parties kicked off local poo poo too One of the major parties has made notable efforts at the local level to implement IRV and one has not.
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Sep 11, 2020 04:41
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Out of curiosity I’m trying to find out what Obama’s final “win probability” was for 538 in 2008, for comparison’s sake to now. Can’t find it on google but I thought it was very high probability like 98% or so?
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Sep 11, 2020 04:51
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He’s just saying it’s not a great relative poll number, for Oregon qua Oregon. Doesn’t make a difference except on the extreme margins where his algorithm looks at each state poll relative to the partisan lean and uses that to inform what the “real” snapshot should be in other states. It sounds like most of the stuff he puts in his model are on the extreme margins tho.
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Sep 11, 2020 20:29
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Pick posted:Oregon's getting less red, not more. But again, there's a floor and a ceiling. Also, the attacks on Hillary were oriented on things that don't matter as much in OR. Oregon is one of the least religious states, for example. And it's not very pro-military, and the military doesn't have much presence here. A lot of the stuff that lands on the east coast matters less here. We need a Portlandia sketch of diehard Hillary Clinton supporters really agonizing over Biden policies.
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Sep 11, 2020 20:37
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Dapper_Swindler posted:probably not. i have friends of the family and family who are conservative and pro life and it wouldnt change poo poo. its more of a bloody shirt justification to stick with the party when it does poo poo they hate or are grossed out by. A side effect of the culture war is more and more people tend to develop homogeneous opinions. If you are against gun control, you’re probably also against abortion, “cancel culture,” non-right wing protesters, etc. It’s why NRAtv saw mission creep into a lot of conservative talking point stuff that had nothing to do with guns. But it’s also probably easier and more reliable to drive GOTV of their base over abortion than over gay people getting married or a bunch of Tucker Carlson trend issues that come and go. At the margins, if you’re a discouraged unicorn religious conservative who actually can’t stand Trump in a bunch of ways and actually might sit this year out, it’s the tried and true appeal for you to swallow your pride.
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Sep 18, 2020 06:20
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Grouchio posted:If Roe vs Wade is overturned, is abortion illegal everywhere in the states, even in states that enforce it's legality? Not unless Trump stays in office with an R House and Senate, or they get the hat trick in some future year (which is still pretty likely sooner or later since every president since Clinton at one point had a legislative majority). Then they have some real choices to make on how far they go. Do they try for a total ban or close to it or something less? How much political fallout do they want to risk? If the filibuster is still around do they repeal it or is it more politically useful to have that as an excuse not to act? Remember they didn’t do much when Trump was demanding a wall his first two years so they need to weigh how much theater vs. policy they care about.
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Sep 18, 2020 06:29
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Nessus posted:I think there comes a point where assuming anyone who wants a political career is a son of a bitch will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is not to defend Joe Biden but I believe it is said that most senators look in the mirror in the morning and see a future President. In general what people who run for president have in common is ego, but that doesn’t tell you to much about how they will govern. It’s not like FDR was some fire breathing progressive naturally. Or LBJ. Presidents are pretty situational with the times in what they’ll do.
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Sep 22, 2020 07:34
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Responding to last page’s doomsday stuff: The reason political shootings are rare has nothing to do with the goodness of dyed-red chuds, okay? It’s because chuds are cowards. There’s also going to be some element of Republican recriminations among themselves if Trump loses big. Plenty of people will want to memory-hole him.
yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 19:15
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:a strategy of "assume the Republican base will all go away when trump does" is both wishful thinking and laughably, transparently doomed. you were politically aware in 2008. what happened next. The argument I addressed was that chuds will show a bunch more physical courage. My counter-argument is that they are cowards. Trump doesn’t ask much of them other than buying a red hat and being hella racist and ignorant. Only the hat purchase is something they weren’t doing anyway. Yes they will still vote like chuds and consume right wing grift like chuds but they won’t make actual personal sacrifices (other than catching covid, because they don’t believe it exists or is very bad). yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 20:03
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TwoQuestions posted:https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1308481196188467205 Probably won’t get to that point in this case as long as the PA Court is interpreting state law. 20 days pass. “In a 6 to 3 decision...”
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Sep 22, 2020 22:30
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Nessus posted:https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1308621474526375940 Kind of interesting that Biden is ahead of the average Congressional D but behind most swing Senate races... you’d think Trump would be more hated than peoples’ local R incumbent Senator.
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Sep 23, 2020 09:09
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exquisite tea posted:I would tell you +7 for Joe Biden in Rhode Island is ridiculous but Hillary Clinton did only carry the state by 15% in 2016, which I believe was one of her biggest single drops from Obama's 2012 margins in any state. Still ridiculous though, it's like the third gayest state in the union and for that crime will probably lose a congressional seat after 2020. We’re losing the Peter Griffin vote.
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Sep 24, 2020 18:29
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1312065485400346625 The Chad Biden vs. the virgin positive covid test Trump? Actually tho Trump will try to turn it around and say he’s a big strong man for having the virus, especially if he doesn’t get severe symptoms.
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Oct 2, 2020 18:13
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Dapper_Swindler posted:sorry. i hope trump lives to see his loss and than slowly fails and dies of complications or whatever instead of dying of this outright in last 31 days. Nah there’s no Schadenfreude worth seeing Pence get sworn in and get the pension/perks from being president for like a week. Whether Trump reaps his own hubris now or in five years due to lovely lifestyle choices while living in disgrace is all the same tbh. yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Oct 2, 2020 |
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Oct 2, 2020 20:40
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Sarcastro posted:Ryan would probably have gotten some of those undecides/embarrassed Republicans to come back in before Election Day, though (although Obama absolutely would have won regardless). Yeah Obama would have won but come out of it stronger as s candidate for having faced a real GE opponent.
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Oct 19, 2020 20:50
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TwoQuestions posted:What I'm more afraid of is the courts retroactively invalidating ballots, as in passing a new rule that restricts and changes where college students can vote. Absentee ballots don’t come with a special “college student - please throw out” stamp. Trump appointees are real bad but they’re out of time for most things except what they’ve already done. If there’s a close enough race for there to be a recount, or if chud state legislatures interfere with the electors, are their last chances to meddle. The solution in any event is just to win overwhelmingly and obviously to force them to stay out of it ahead of time. Then expand the courts. yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 22:15
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How are u posted:Yesterday I spoke to an older woman voter in Arizona who told me: she's a registered Libertarian and has been for years, but she always votes Green Party because she's an environmentalist, except this election she voted Biden and (D) down the ballot because there were no Greens on her ballot in Arizona [ed: thank god], but she didn't have a problem with that because The Lord was telling her she needed to vote for Joe Biden. Then she, completely unprompted, told me that she was sure that Lee Harvey Oswald was a Republican and wanted to talk about JFK being killed. Tbh if Oswald was born 60 years later he’d be posting QAnon memes and joining the Proud Boys.
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Oct 23, 2020 01:05
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I’ve seen enough and p much agree with what 538 has right now. Trump holds Texas and Ohio. Everything from Iowa on left will be Biden. Georgia is probably truly a tossup but I’m choosing optimism.
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Oct 28, 2020 05:04
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Sanguinia posted:Their turnout in Miami so far is only half of their total turnout (including actual election day and the remaining week) in 2016, ergo he's struggling apparently. How is black voter turnout in Miami specifically being measured though? Just crosstabs somewhere?
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Oct 28, 2020 05:15
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Grouchio posted:Why is the Collins vs Gideon senate match tightening significantly? Undecideds (Temporarily embarrassed Republicans) coming home?
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Oct 30, 2020 06:18
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Flopsy posted:Any of y'all wanna pull up a chair and a hard drink and listen to ol' Auntie Flopsy's phone banking tales here in rural PA? Let’s hear it and how much QAnon did you get
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Oct 31, 2020 06:47
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MaoistBanker posted:So while extremely lovely and he should likely be arrested for that because you cannot act with intent that the Supreme Court is going to do ANYTHING, this county is a very R heavy county, and R voters are more likely to vote day-of or return mail ballots closer to deadline. This could actually disproportionately affect Trump voters. Owning Trump to own the libs
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Nov 3, 2020 18:55
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Is there any benchmark with 2016 to compare?
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Nov 3, 2020 19:10
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BigglesSWE posted:Seems to me that America needs a federal Election Authority that (somehow) isn't made up of political appointments. Then you really won’t like that even if we passed a law to create an independent body to do this, the courts would strike it down and say “no this is unconstitutional and the only thing you can have is something that is at best one election away from being Trump-appointed disenfranchisement squads.”
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Nov 4, 2020 22:22
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