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When the polls say someone is a likely voter as opposed to just a registered voter does that just mean that the people being polled have voted in the recent past? If so, are they including people who have never voted before but have just registered for the first time recently? Because those people seem to me like they intend to vote.
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Aug 31, 2020 19:30
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Dapper_Swindler posted:...or barr comes out and tries to pull a comey... Meatball posted:The problem with this plan is they've been torching their own credibility to the point where people have been assuming the opposite of what they say. Well given these two facts then the only thing that makes sense would be that Barr needs to come out a week before the election and announce he is reopening the Mueller investigation. Right?
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Sep 3, 2020 18:32
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There are other factions than just 'the left' and showing trumps hypocritical behavior towards their core beliefs by people who epitomize those beliefs is a powerful political tool for those factions to use. And it may benefit the Joe Biden campaign immensely, if not in direct support at least by removing support for Trump. Many low and middle class families have ties into the military, it's a way bigger group than just the active duty contingent vote.
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Sep 4, 2020 12:57
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VitalSigns posted:Nah she said that before Reade made the accusation of actual assault, so that's an easy one to answer: "I believe women who said they felt uncomfortable and I am glad that he took them seriously and apologized, but I don't believe he assaulted anyone." The last I remember reading of Reade was a buzzfeed article where they stated unequivocally that they spent months investigating her claims and couldn't get anything they could use. My recollection is that they also implied that other credible investigators had been there before or after them, that most of them had talked to each other about it and still couldn't come up with a credible through line. The issue with the Ford accusation of Kavanaugh is that it wasn't allowed to be investigated prior to a MAJOR appointment. These are significantly different things.
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Sep 4, 2020 16:51
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VitalSigns posted:Reade's accusations weren't allowed to be investigated by anyone with the power to actually investigate (ie subpoena people and records) either. Grand Jury investigations are secret. You have no ability to state this with any honesty. We know that the FBI was forbidden to investigate Fords story.
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Sep 4, 2020 17:32
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moths posted:making GBS threads on the troops began with Jane Fonda and ended with kneeling during the anthem. This is literally the only troop maligning that conservatives recognize. Kneeling is a perfectly fine and honorable method of recognition. It is actually more respectful than standing quietly. You kneel to pray to god. Objecting to kneeling as an alternate method of respect because it also served to draw attention to an important issue is absolutely just capital R Racism.
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Sep 5, 2020 12:30
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TwoQuestions posted:Either that or they have it right and everyone else has it wrong, he could have been winning this whole time. How good are polls at determining if they are being trolled/lied to? Because I see a lot of Trump signs, stickers and flags and very few Biden anything. I could see chuds just straight up trolling a pollster.
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Sep 7, 2020 01:20
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Dapper_Swindler posted:he seems to be not getting accurate polls. Anyone brave enough to get OANN crud on their computer and find out what he's referring to? Are they funding their own private polls? Or using public data adjusted with some internal modifiers?
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Sep 8, 2020 13:48
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Rea posted:It's, on the surface, at odds with Biden's statement on the vaccine. Only if you cherry pick comments out of context. He and Kamala's statements both amount to "If the scientific community was sure the vaccine was safe and effective they would take it". Since the scientific community says it's going to be next year before they know that it pretty much precludes any October vaccine meeting that criteria.
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Sep 8, 2020 16:33
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evilweasel posted:Yes, but he’s losing. The underdog generally wants more debates because that means more chances to change the race - even if each debate has negative expected value, because who cares if you lose by more? This isn’t trumps reason for calling for more debates. He’s calling for more debates because he doesn’t want any debates. This lets him look like he wants debates while he finds a good moment to pull out while blaming Biden for there being no debates. Anyway, the confidence this thread has in Biden’s debate prowess leads me to assume the worst and Trump will win.
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Sep 9, 2020 00:53
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evilweasel posted:i think the key thing to keep in mind with bad pollsters is that they are first and foremost bad pollsters. they don't just do a good poll then give Trump 5 extra points.* they do a lovely job polling in the first place, so their data isn't very good. Does someone provide analysis that shows pollster variance? Are they bad pollsters in that they get wide swings in results from the same poll conducted multiple times? Or are they bad in that they are consistent but biased so as to be out-of-family with other pollsters performing the same/similar polls? This sort of tracking seems like the sort of statistical analysis that would be important for an aggregated model of polling results.
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Sep 9, 2020 14:56
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Spiritus Nox posted:I mean, heck, he's almost literally running on Hillary's much-mocked America Is Already Great routine. America was a lot better in 2016.
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Sep 9, 2020 18:48
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Neo_Crimson posted:Dead girl or live boy. Por que no los dos?
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Sep 9, 2020 19:55
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Parrotine posted:What is the point of tracking, much less having, a popular vote if it doesn't affect the income for elections at all? The illusion of democracy? I think a significant portion of the population is coming along to the idea that the EC is broken as a fair method of determining the results of the election.
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Sep 10, 2020 15:21
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:In 2016 I went to watch parties for the debates. Those obviously won’t be happening this year. I honestly don’t know if I’m going to be able to handle watching them alone. It's okay the sound bites will be distilled into simple 1 minute chunks and your favorite talking head will tell you if it was a good sound bite or a bad sound bite. There's no thinking or critical judgement required at any point.
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Sep 10, 2020 16:14
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BiggerBoat posted:RE: The Debates, which I think came up in this thread... Over the space of 19 interviews and 10 hours of taped recording Donald Trump admitted on the record and on tape to numerous criminal activities and morally indefensible decisions to BOB loving WOODWARD. A man he knew was out to get him. Trump has no filter and the things he thinks are good are actually really, really bad to ~60% of the country. Why not let him talk on live TV under pressure? edit: Remember when Trump left his podium during a live debate and walked over to physically intimidate Hillary? Yeah, Trump might actually through a punch at Biden, you cannot possibly seriously consider depriving the world of this potentiality. Murgos fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Sep 11, 2020 |
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Sep 11, 2020 16:53
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DaveWoo posted:Yeah, if there was a national popular vote maybe Trump would actually do something about the biggest state in the union currently being on loving fire. If there was a national popular vote we wouldn't have had a republican president in forever. Or, in reality, republicans would have come left a long time ago and would look very different at a national level then they do now.
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Sep 12, 2020 13:13
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Mooseontheloose posted:Strong mail in returns is really bad for the Republicans because that means younger people are voting, at least thats my read on it. Or people who never voted before are coming to the polls and my guess is that means not Trump people. Strong mail in returns means more people are likely to vote. More people voting is generally bad for Republicans.
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Sep 12, 2020 13:14
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BiggerBoat posted:
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Sep 12, 2020 15:11
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As with the original note about 'returned votes' in NC from a couple of days ago without more context this can be pretty misleading. That said, 3-4% ballots being returned and 2/3rds of those being dem (700ish of ~35,000?) seems like something to be concerned about.
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Sep 12, 2020 19:48
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:No clue how other states do it. Massachusetts: quote:If I vote by mail, can I change my mind and vote in person? If you sent it in early enough you will be told it was rejected and can try again or vote in person. You can also track your application and ballot online to ensure you are being sent a ballot to the right address and that they have received and accepted your ballot. edit: VVVV Sure, I was interested in my states rules so I looked them up and provided another data point. If that's not interesting to you might I suggest Google? Murgos fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Sep 12, 2020 |
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Sep 12, 2020 22:02
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It's like the home shopping network of bigoted campaign donations.
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Sep 13, 2020 01:02
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VitalSigns posted:Hm I am starting to suspect this paper that cheerleaded the Iraq War and responded to protests against police brutality by publishing an op-ed calling for federal government to send the military in to gun down civilians might be somewhat right wing! I think everyone should generally recognize that all media has always been about rich people using their money to sway opinion to their advantage. From the wealthy in ancient Athens paying people to yell, "Vote for the thing I want, it's good!" on street corners to yellow dog journalism in the late 19th century that started the spanish american war, NYT, WaPo, Fox or Facebook are all doing essentially the same things today.
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Sep 13, 2020 01:08
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Neo_Crimson posted:Best part is in the replies: Maybe I’m going to far but stuff like this seems like It’s all part of the same Dems stealing the election narrative. Tell a few hundred thousand hard core CHUDs that Trump is going to sweep the nation and repeat it until they totally believe it in their core. When Trump loses you’ve gotta core of ‘victims’ ready to start agitating with a false narrative they are fully engaged in. The groups they will be preaching to are primed to believe them.
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Sep 13, 2020 13:08
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Isn’t this easily countered with, “meanwhile in the real world, record unemployment, massive deficit, billionaires got richer, poor got hosed”? Like, I get he’s preaching to his base but this is going to have a hard time convincing anyone not his base. Murgos fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Sep 14, 2020 |
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Sep 14, 2020 22:50
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ElrondHubbard posted:Greens haven’t exactly endeared themselves to dems over the years, so it’s not like they have friends on the left side of the aisle naive enough to stick their necks out for them. I work in an industry where procedural inertia slows things down so that a month is a standard unit for measuring activity. However, submitting a letter that says, “the reason there is a discrepancy in my address in the filing is because I moved” was hardly an overwhelming burden that couldn’t be met in a reasonable time frame.
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Sep 15, 2020 01:34
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Grouchio posted:Then what of Texas? The BBQ is pretty good? Tex-Mex is also decent. What do we get out of Florida? Grouper sandwiches and gator tail?
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Sep 15, 2020 19:46
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How are u posted:In Florida there just so happens to be an enormous contingent, that doesn't exist anywhere else in the nation, that are bloodthirsty anti-communists. In large part these were the people put up against the wall when the revolution came. That they lean toward Trump is almost a given. Normalizing relationships with Cuba means they have to give up any remaining pretense that they will get land/money/power/prestige etc... back someday.
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Sep 15, 2020 19:52
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PerniciousKnid posted:How many of those people are still alive? Not many, but family legends of wealth die hard.
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Sep 15, 2020 20:13
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1305967117007835136 This gaslighting of the core republicans is pretty terrifying. It really seems like a naked attempt to bend reality in order to prime the pump of insurrection. I don’t see anything else it could rationally be.
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Sep 16, 2020 00:07
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cr0y posted:Was there this chud call to arms if trump loses rhetoric amongst the lunatics in this country when Obama won? My sister who has an african american partner is legit worried about total societal meltdown if Trump loses and these nuts see it as their duty to overthrow the country. https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_1854309 The rhetoric is getting more extreme and more common but there was some.
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Sep 16, 2020 02:19
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exquisite tea posted:Regardless of what this election's result will be, it's more than a little depressing that anyone can look at the state of the country in 2020 and see it amounts to a net of like -4.5% for the incumbent party's vote share. Yeah, the real take away from all this is that Fascism is alive and well in the US and that we are a narrow margin from descending into authoritarianism. The vaunted checks and balances of the system have been shown to be, when push comes to shove, largely ineffective, either through a process of erosion or in that they were never all that strong to begin with. That emoluments cases started against Trump the week he was elected and have yet to get to the trial on the merits phase three and a half years later is a REAL problem. Two of the three cases will be moot if Trump loses suggesting that Trump was reasonably safe to conflate his personal business with official duties when negotiating trade deals with foreign governments. That House oversight, which started in earnest in March of 2018 with the release of the Mueller report, the subpoena of McGhan and Trumps claim of absolute immunity still has not been resolved 18 months later is also a REAL problem. Especially considering that House subpoena authority has long since been established by SCOTUS and as a matter of legal principle the court enforcing the subpoena, which they are set up to do, or the house sending the sgt at arms, which is laughable, is legally the same thing. Throw in that now it is clear that impeachment has a burden of proof on the opposition that is so high as to be insurmountable for all practical purposes to be a real threat as a tool to use against the head of the one of the two national parties and it looks like we have some real deals systemic and constitutional problems.
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Sep 16, 2020 15:04
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Jarmak posted:I know that's cold comfort to all the people suffering that can't wait four years, but there isn't really any other mechanism to protect against complete refusal to follow the rules that itself wouldn't have been available to Trump/GOP to use to consolidate power. I seem to recall Trump being impeached for colluding/coercing a foreign government to fabricate evidence against his potential opponents in the upcoming election. I also, just yesterday, saw the Attorney General of the US put his thumb on the scale by ridiculing vote by mail as a safe and effective voting method. We also know that Barr is planning to use Durham's report as a bludgeon and we know it's not going to be good as a senior member of his team just resigned in protest. Trump has several times stated that he is considering sending armed federal agents to polling places in troubled areas, by which he means areas that favor his opponents, to intimidate voters. Once he really comes to grip with that there is little stopping him from going all in on voter suppression and using the full authority of his office to alter the outcome of the election then where does that leave the country? The only thing keeping the elections even remotely legitimate at this point is that they are managed by the states but there is still a LOT that Trump and a corrupt AG can do to manipulate the result.
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Sep 16, 2020 16:48
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brugroffil posted:Biden is going to top Reagan '84 both in terms of electoral dominance and conservative governance! Fine by me. Do I need to post the list again?
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Sep 17, 2020 00:53
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DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1306644564523057154 If nothing else it's better theater. Biden has a clear advantage in that essentially every answer is some variation on, 'Better than what Trump did'. Largely because Trump set the bar so low as that any response of 'better' is pretty credible. How about this bad thing under Obama? That bad thing is still better than the version Trump did. How about this bad thing you did in the senate? You mean the broad bipartisan support thing? Yes, and better than the Trump version. What about issue X? I will resolve issue X this way which is better than what Trump is doing. etc...
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Sep 17, 2020 18:55
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Biden getting a bigger rating number than Trump is going to make him burn. What are the odds we get real-time Trump reacts?
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Sep 17, 2020 19:14
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JazzFlight posted:Just goes to show that colleges are LIBRUL BRAINWERSHING BUILDINS!!!!! If I had artistic talent I would draw a political carton panel: Title across the top: 2020 School Year On the left hand side a child at a table with a laptop, on the laptop a teacher discussing US History topics 'Slavery, KKK, Civil Rights Movement' on the board behind her. In the center a man, on a recliner in an open bathrobe showing t-shirt and boxers. If you can it should show that he is currently unemployed. He is watching TV and drinking a beer. He is saying, "drat Liberuls!" On the right is the TV, it is showing a man who looks like Hannity or Tucker, from the TV is coming the words, "BLM = Antifa, Virus Hoax and Vote-by-mail fraud" The TV font should be large and bold to show it is overwhelming the lesson.
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Sep 18, 2020 18:07
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SpitztheGreat posted:This is a shocking graph. Florida makes sense, and maybe even Ohio if they have it in the bag, but to pull so much money from PA is mind boggling to me. If Trump can hold PA and FL then his road to reelection is sooooooo much easier. If he loses PA then it opens up all kinds of roads for Biden. I've been saying it for months, but PA has always been the key in my mind so it makes no sense to me why Trump would pull support from there. If you look at just the high quality polls on 538 Biden's average is comfortably ahead and out of the margin of error. If you have no money you would probably stop chasing it in favor of something you could win.
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Sep 18, 2020 19:38
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Are campaign donations public? Can we get a graph of donations to the campaigns? Fake Edit: Closest I can find is here: https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/president/presidential-map/ It only maps donations of more than $100k to the presidential election but: Democrats have registered $2.882 Billion this year Republicans have registered $412 Million this year No idea what the reporting requirements are, the donations could be substantially higher just not reported yet. It's my understanding that Democrats also dominate the small donations through Act Blue, of which there is no R equivalent. Act Blue says they've raised and disbursed another 2 billion, but that's to all campaigns. So, it's kind of no wonder then that Presidential politics is about the big money if they swamp small money so significantly. edit: I missed that the 2.8 billion is all dem candidates. Of which Biden has 321 million. second edit: You can poke through expenditures data there. I was looking at Trumps outlays and kept seeing 'American Made Media' getting multi-million dollar payments, by far the largest payouts. Turns out that's Parscales company. LOL. Also, Trump has a pretty huge payroll. Caroline Wren is getting 10 grand every two weeks. Murgos fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Sep 18, 2020 |
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Sep 18, 2020 19:53
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An R senator in a contentious district not up for election now could on Nov 4 be looking at a coming D majority senate and a Biden 8 point mandate in the popular and could very well decide that he/she wants to be able to call in a favor for that time when they, "blocked the RBG vote".
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Sep 21, 2020 17:14
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