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Blurred posted:If you're the Biden campaign, do you start to consider putting a lot of time and money into places like GA and TX now? Or play it safe by focusing on "blue wall" states like MI, PA etc.? I think there's the danger of Texas becoming the Democrats' white whale, but with the last couple of polls we've seen from there it must be very difficult to resist the temptation to give it a shot.
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Jun 26, 2020 00:01
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Montana's a weird state. Democrats could probably compete nationally if they really wanted too but it's only three electoral votes so why bother? Anyways, House update: https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1278550568877854720 https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1278555740060467200
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Jul 2, 2020 06:45
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Charlz Guybon posted:Trump won Kansas by 20.6%. Twenty point six percent!
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Jul 3, 2020 03:57
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https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1281953272522330115 Some Dems want the Biden campaign to go big, but the Biden camp so far is more cautious.
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Jul 12, 2020 00:55
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Even if the polls are off by a similar margin in swing states like in 2016 (~3 points), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida are still solidly Biden, and Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia are toss-ups.
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Jul 12, 2020 02:33
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https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1283007886302629889
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Jul 14, 2020 13:08
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Charlz Guybon posted:Is this good or bad? Good. Suburban Dallas/Fort Worth seat with a retiring R incumbent. Beto won it by 3 in 2018. Also: https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1283262941035409411
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Jul 15, 2020 06:09
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1284267712114569216
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Jul 18, 2020 06:19
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https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1285314254934020097 Would love to see Biden/Trump numbers for this district. Also, why would you release this poll? It makes you look terrible.
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Jul 20, 2020 22:53
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VitalSigns posted:Just like when Democrats savvily nominated a silver star recipient, and Republicans and their chickenhawk president were not able to call him a coward and a traitor at all. Trump isn't Bush, 2004 isn't 2020, and Duckworth, a minority female with a visible disability, isn't Kerry, a white male with no visible disability. E: Wow Ohio polling better than Pennsylvania in a Rasmussen poll. 
SoggyBobcat fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Jul 22, 2020 |
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Jul 22, 2020 00:50
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It's worth noting that O'Rourke actually outran his polling numbers in 2018; the RCP average was Cruz +6.8 with the final result being Cruz +2.6. Polls might not pick up how fast the demographics are shifting. Also I don't think Beto ever actually led in any polls, while Biden very much has. SoggyBobcat fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Jul 23, 2020 |
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Jul 23, 2020 01:09
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Can't wait for the Trump campaign to release some obviously fudged numbers from New Mexico to try and make this a narrative.
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Jul 27, 2020 04:19
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https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1287730322877173760 Not sure how the college educated/non-college educated sample compares to the state.
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Jul 27, 2020 14:35
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1289054403454996480 Trump won this district by 14.9% in 2016.
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Jul 31, 2020 06:59
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https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1290419851186647045 Hopefully other states follow suit.
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Aug 4, 2020 01:47
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Considering it's Kentucky, Obama's endorsement would probably hurt her.
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Aug 4, 2020 09:50
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https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1292441780739280897
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Aug 9, 2020 14:30
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1293763513761107970
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Aug 13, 2020 05:38
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Yeah totally expect to see a Biden +3 poll or something from Rasmussen a week from now so they can crow about the tightening race.
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Aug 13, 2020 06:06
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I think when it comes to Texas or other states that are going through rapid growth and demographic changes the trendline is probably more important than specific poll results. Polls might not catch just how quickly things are changing. 2016 President RCP average: Trump +11.7 Actual result: Trump +9 2018 Senate RCP average: Cruz +6.8 Actual result: Cruz +2.6 2020 President RCP average (current): Trump +3.5 Actual result: ???
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Aug 23, 2020 00:47
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Do these idiots not know that registered Democrats are polled more because there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans?
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Aug 24, 2020 04:35
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https://twitter.com/EvanMcMullin/status/1299202749947686920 The combined Clinton + McMullin votes in Utah were greater than Trumps' in 2016 (554,366 to 515,231). That said it would probably take a Romney endorsement to truly make Biden competitive in that state.
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Aug 28, 2020 06:39
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299891988528017408
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Aug 30, 2020 03:29
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Decent, consistent with an Evers +1 result I think.
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Sep 1, 2020 15:57
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Shut the gently caress up and post some drat polls!!!! https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302000600238956547
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Sep 5, 2020 04:58
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https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1305222101561999360
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Sep 13, 2020 22:39
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Dapper_Swindler posted:would that change anything? i mean cool as poo poo though. sexpig by night posted:how does 'biden has a 4 point lead but the challenger has a 2 point hurdle' feed into 'biden and elliot's coalitions look alike'?
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Sep 13, 2020 22:58
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Mind_Taker posted:https://www.nytimes.com./live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden#what-do-the-polls-say https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1306306072106487808 Also that Quinnipiac Maine poll has Biden up 53-44 in ME-02; it was 45-44 Trump in late June/early August.
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Sep 16, 2020 20:16
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1306695570220875777
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Sep 18, 2020 04:29
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1307696702577668099 Focusing on how Trump's SCOTUS pick could endanger the ACA doesn't seem like a bad play for the Biden campaign.
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Sep 20, 2020 16:06
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1308189633394757633 https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1308076423152906240
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Sep 22, 2020 02:39
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https://twitter.com/NickTagliaferro/status/1309618227278950405
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Sep 26, 2020 03:21
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310590763093430275 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310591396299124739
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Sep 28, 2020 15:47
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If "no one won" or "they both looked bad" is the common takeaway, then Biden actually won.
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Sep 30, 2020 03:38
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:That depends on if Texas flips.
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Oct 7, 2020 23:26
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https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1314059460952825856 Upstate New York district that includes Binghamton and Utica. Trump won it by 15.5 points in 2016.
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Oct 8, 2020 06:00
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IN-05 is my guess for the specific district he's talking about, though it probably holds true for plenty others. 58-41 for Romney in 2012 and 53-41 for Trump in 2016.
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Oct 18, 2020 19:38
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LinYutang posted:Was 60-41 in favor of the Republican in 2016: 
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Oct 20, 2020 02:37
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https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1319706002535510016
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Oct 23, 2020 23:12
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vyelkin posted:Someone said that enormous Biden lead in Wisconsin is likely an outlier but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be real, for this specific reason:
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Oct 28, 2020 21:48
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