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RottenK posted:it's a great shame that some peasants think that they're allowed to judge politicians for their past actions Don't cut yourself on that edge, bro.
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Aug 11, 2020 22:22
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1293659139412045824?s=20
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Aug 12, 2020 22:35
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Cool article that you forgot to link Here it is, it is a good read. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570
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Aug 14, 2020 22:33
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Idk, I felt a little sympathetic for Biden after reading that considering I've been in rooms where everyone is equally qualified on paper but because you're the sole non-Ivy leaguer, your opinion is treated as less than for no other reason than that. It's loving aggravating.
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Aug 14, 2020 22:45
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Ego-bot posted:Shaheen is also up for re-election. Aside from Doug Jones, she may be the most vulnerable Dem senator. https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings Peters from MI is more vulnerable than Shaeen is. I'm not saying it's impossible for Shaeen to lose, but it's unlikely. Dapper_Swindler posted:GOP aint doing so well money wise. I audibly chuckled once I saw the balances. Hot drat. Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 04:01 on Aug 21, 2020 |
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Aug 21, 2020 03:58
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Xombie posted:Last RNC culminated in legitimizing Trump, which is why he got a bump from it. The Republican party is just a Trump creature now. The RNC is just going to be a Trump rally, if anything. Oh that's absolutely what it is, considering he's speaking every single night and they're hyping that as a selling point.
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Aug 21, 2020 14:46
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Djarum posted:I think that we have hit Trump speaking fatigue. In 2016 it was a new freak show and you never knew what was going to come out of his mouth so the media and viewers ate it up. Fast forward 4 years and he has become effectively a comedy bit. Even at the beginning of the pandemic when the entire country was begging for leadership and someone to rally around Trump couldn't take advantage of that, it was the same old bit. Yeah, exactly. If there wasn't a pandemic or economic crisis occurring, I don't think it'd be nearly the misstep that I think it is. But if he wants to spend four nights in a row yelling about playing football and BLM while people deal with the pandemic and unemployment, have at it my dude. Biden spent a chunk of his acceptance speech telling people who have lost family during all of this that he knows what they are feeling and that he cares, I struggle to imagine Trump giving even a 1/4 of that much empathy during one of his nightly speeches where he talks about how he's the real victim during all of this.
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Aug 21, 2020 17:16
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Technowrite posted:Uhhm, what? Trump winning 362 electoral votes? The gently caress outta here with that nonsense. (Not you OP, this guy). lol, it's actually dumber than I thought quote:Unlike many other projections, Norpoth’s equation ignores approval ratings. This is like Peggy Noonan's Yard-sign metric but somehow even more dumb.
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Aug 21, 2020 21:51
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Grayly Squirrel posted:People still think there are "hidden" Trump voters that pretend to be Biden voters. Its the pretend to be Biden voters part that is a total stretch unsupported by any evidence. The analysis has been pretty clear, however, that if there were "hidden" Trump voters in 2016 that were embarrassed to say who they supported, they said "undecided," or "other,"- not Hillary. People were doing this when Obama first ran by constantly bringing up the "Bradley Effect" anytime he looked good against McCain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect I'm of the mind that it made more sense in 2016 when you had far more undecideds but as people keep saying, it would seem things are so polarized that most people made up their minds long ago and people screaming shy Trump voters are doing it to cover their bases if polling ends up being wrong or w/e.
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Aug 21, 2020 22:58
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The funniest part about that poll is if you look at the crosstabs, it's def. weighted slightly in favor of the GOP and yet it's still 52/42 for Biden. lol, dude is cherry picking to make it awful for Dems. Also spoiler alert, but something like 2/3s of people who ID as independents for phone polls tend to be shy Republican voters. Seriously, go look at the crosstabs. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eHT_l5lsfjvX-VTuA2doFfqaV3QeYZVx/view Would I prefer that Biden had more independent support? Yeah sure. Does it matter in this polls case? Not really!
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Aug 24, 2020 01:17
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https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1298667341610389511
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Aug 26, 2020 18:48
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DaveWoo posted:Another MA poll: Yeah this makes me feel a bit better. Issue with the other poll was the undecided number was a bit high (16%). It's not terrible but it's not great either. Still, I think Markey is going to pull this one off, which thank gently caress.
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Aug 26, 2020 19:29
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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:My brother was making the point that Joe Kennedy seems like the sort of guy that boomers look at and think "Well he seems like such a nice young man! I wish my children were more like him!" And I can't say I disagree. Boomer Dems want younger people in Congress, but the problem is that they want younger people who think like them, not people who have had to deal with the realities that young adults currently face. See also, Pete Buttigieg.
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Aug 26, 2020 20:05
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1300225344528580608 Thought this was interesting. I've not seen much battleground polling done at the district level, so the comparison to 2016 here seems, good?
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Aug 31, 2020 02:00
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I’m blessed that I was politically unaware and also leaned Republican anyway during 08 when McCain shot into the lead after the RNC because being on here must have been hell. Where do you think "arzying" came from?  I wanna say, it was a bit rough until maybe third week of September and then the first debate happened. Once the financial crisis was in full swing and Obama's polling swung back in his favor incredibly hard, it was smoother but people were still (justifiably) worried poo poo wouldn't pan out.
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Aug 31, 2020 13:54
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TwoQuestions posted:WRT mail-in votes, I fully expect another Florida situation where protesters force the election boards to stop counting absentee votes. The problem with this theory is that in 2000, Bush only needed to have the Brooks Brothers Riot be successful in one state that his brother was governor of and the SoS was a republican. It is a lot harder to pull the same poo poo off across multiple states at the same time, many of which have Dem SoS and Governors. If the race comes down to a single state, I can see it happening. But I have my doubts that Trump and crew will be able to stop absentee ballot counting everywhere just because they wish it so.
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Aug 31, 2020 20:57
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Silver has a thread up about "Shy Trump" voters Spoiler: No, it's not swinging the polls significantly. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1300759262638026752
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Sep 1, 2020 14:27
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evilweasel posted:nah Same. I bit my nails from 2004-2012 even when I had plenty of reason not to. 2016 was the one election I was complacent in thinking Clinton would win without a doubt. Never again.
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Sep 1, 2020 19:16
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Thought this was interesting https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632
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Sep 2, 2020 17:42
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Rasmussen polls followed by a post saying how it's accurate and how dare you discount it despite years of evidence that they heavily lean republican is trolling. Otherwise, it's a poo poo poll outfit but I still like seeing them because you can get a feel for how much they are putting their thumb on the scale sometimes. Here's a CO senate poll, haven't seen much of these in awhile. https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301621094798045191
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Sep 4, 2020 00:38
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sexpig by night posted:Gary Cohn: VC ghoul who's biggest issue with Trump was straight up 'I never thought the We don't. It's just the idea of them going on national television during prime time to say "Yeah Trump's an rear end in a top hat, also he said all of that poo poo" and the reactions it would evoke are hilarious.
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Sep 4, 2020 04:27
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Pick posted:Uh.............. if that's the real photo, how do you deny that? Oh it was a dumbshit bit that he did in 2012 that they decided not to air during the 2012 RNC but it was leaked shortly after. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urFPm857tJA It's as loving stupid as it sounds.
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Sep 6, 2020 04:44
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Technowrite posted:Senator Palpatine has a Very Important Endorsement today! Oh my god, gently caress this guy.
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Sep 9, 2020 19:43
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TwoQuestions posted:If he'd have done this, he'd be cruising to victory right now. I really don't understand why he downplayed a big dragon for him to slay, I really don't. It's done nothing but backfire on him, and if he at any time said "This China Virus is tougher than we thought!", his polls would improve. What's the worst that can happen for him, he pisses off his base? He could bash their kids' and parent's brains in with a lead pipe and they'll still go to every rally. Even for himself he's taken the worst road. Look at Larry Hogan. He pretty much did this despite the Chuds in MD losing their poo poo over it. Until relatively recently, he was polling incredibly well for essentially doing the bare minimum you would expect of any responsible elected official (shut downs, mandatory masks, minimum enforcement, etc). The only reason people are starting to turn on him is that he clearly has his sights set on 2024 so he's recently done things like wait for every school district in MD to announce virtual learning before saying that schools should just reopen, as well as denouncing BLM protests and cheerleading Trump on a conference call and proclaiming that the protests are fueled by paid agitators.
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Sep 10, 2020 17:15
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cr0y posted:Wait what  
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Sep 10, 2020 17:35
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So this will have an effect on Florida https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1304502075741663232
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Sep 11, 2020 20:50
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Craig K posted:that's little rock, which means that even if that's true, the other three districts go r+50 and outvote them No one expects AK to go blue, the point is that suburban districts might be breaking hard for Biden. If a relatively suburban district in deep Red AK is polling like that for Biden, it bodes well elsewhere. That's all it means.
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Sep 14, 2020 00:46
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Craig K posted:fair enough; believe me, if arkansas goes biden i'm lol, this is probably the best toxx I've seen in a long while. A man can hope, right?
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Sep 14, 2020 01:33
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ing that i'm going to upload myself signing Party In the USA to youtube 
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Rigel posted:Well, it is possible for Biden to win Alaska, there are a few models that start to pull it in for massive blowouts. Some of the southern states though, like... Arkansas for example won't ever go for Biden.  Alaska going blue would be a thing though. Craig K posted:don't worry, i didn't say anything because everybody makes that mistake; i've gotten used to it :p It's a mistake I made in my old job on a regular enough basis that I thought I would have learned by now and yet...
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Sep 14, 2020 02:31
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More AZ polls https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1305487380183478274
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Sep 14, 2020 16:02
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Yeah 10 seems like a huge stretch for AZ, I could see 3-4, 6 at most. Though saw one analysis that said it's possible AZ's shift from red to blue might have been masked by McCain (native son) and Romney (lots of LDS voters in AZ). Still, I don't see Biden winning AZ by double digits. Mark Kelly on the other hand...
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Sep 14, 2020 16:09
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Rea posted:https://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1305546161722462208 On a related note, https://twitter.com/tamarakeithNPR/status/1305239804360167424
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Sep 14, 2020 22:40
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:So...Quinnipiac appears to be in the business of killing GOP hopes and dreams this cycle.  Into my loving veins.Full poll here,https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1306295584291258369
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Sep 16, 2020 19:25
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Telsa Cola posted:Was talking to some folks about this but my theory is that everyone loving hates Mcsally which is having some effect and Trump has also alienated seniors who vote like crazy in AZ, and normally vote republican. You also have Cindy McCain all but saying "Please vote for Biden". I get that we all agree McCain was a piece of poo poo, but the olds in AZ loved him and Trump making GBS threads all over him looks like it's finally backfiring somewhere.
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Sep 18, 2020 16:22
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cr0y posted:Was Boof before or after midterms? Right before. You could make the argument it didn't do much for the senate but it sure as hell drove turnout a hell of a lot higher than anyone expected it to. If it was a presidential election year I can only imagine how much higher it would have been. I mean just based off of how much money Dems have raised in the last 48 hours from small dollar contributions, if the Republicans are dumb enough to think rushing an appointment would somehow make things go well for them in November, lol.
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Sep 21, 2020 02:58
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No idea what this polls rating is but if it's any where close to decent, holy poo poo. https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1308100324952018946 Caveat, lot of undecides and I don't necessarily expect Espy to win, but if makes the GOP sweat in Mississippi, all the better. Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Sep 21, 2020 |
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Sep 21, 2020 19:09
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1308392225391423488 Graham is still favored to win, but again, forcing the GOP to spend money in "Safe" states is not a bad thing. The fact that it's effectively a tie in loving SC with a little over a month to go is good. TwoQuestions posted:https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1308367735336964096 Agreed. Forgoing the 50 state strategy for so long was such a dumb loving move.
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Sep 22, 2020 14:14
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Delthalaz posted:I’m inclined to think that extremely partisan rulings against mail-in voting will only increase democratic voters’ rage and motivation You're not wrong, I mean look at what happened in Wisconsin earlier this year.
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Sep 23, 2020 00:10
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The MoE is 4.5% too, which, that isn't a reason to outright ignore the poll or Pollyanna the whole thing but it's a bit high for a state level poll, so take that into account. It's also only slightly overlapping the RBG news by a couple of days. Wait for more polls to show an average and then everyone can start making GBS threads their pants. If it bothers you that much, get off the bench and do something to help.
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Sep 23, 2020 13:19
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Yeah I don't think the debates are going to realistically change anyone's minds unless one of them showed up on stage with a live boy or dead girl. And even then, I have my doubts. So I saw this, https://twitter.com/webster/status/1309499167740485634 I'm wondering if their internals show them doing really well in MN or if it's just the usual bluster.
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Sep 25, 2020 16:14
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