Polliwonks: Wasserman, his eyes uncovered!

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Polliwonks: Wasserman, his eyes uncovered!

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323643640049213440

I've been following this guy because I'd like to think his numbers are right but - targetsmart is all modeled turnout though, correct? Like his extremely precise turnout numbers aren't based on actual votes? How'd their model do in previous elections?

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 18:41

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 15:37

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

About the RCP "revolt" on twitter last night, one thing that's always puzzled me is what good it does to skew poll results in any direction. You want the clearest possible picture of the state of the electorate - good or bad for your campaign - in order to make the most informed spending and media choices. The only things I can think of, because RCP is clearly putting its finger on the scale to make the race look closer than other polling indicates, is that 1) it's part of the conservative media strategy of easing the president's fears to gain favor or 2) conservative voters are less likely to turn out if they think they're guy is dead meat.

It's the opposite for liberals, I know for sure that at least Mark Kelly and Biden are both using Trafalgar polling in their fundraising emails, in order to scare Democrats into voting.

Personally, I don't find either to be a particularly compelling argument so: What do you guys think it is?

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 20:52

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Jeffery has contacted DJ Khaled, who has authorized the activation of Apple's most powerful servers.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 21:00

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/_alastair/status/1323694089645248513

CNN must immediately contract Jethro Tull to produce its election night coverage

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 21:04

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Pook Good Mook posted:

Just for everyone: Harris County was about 60-40 Beto in 2018. It alone wouldn't be enough to pull Biden over the finish without mass party defections elsewhere.

But combined with Travis County and a reported shortfall in white non-college early vote it may do the trick.

I don't want to be the wet blanket, but people shouldn't plan on Texas always being a swing state, Trump is uniquely the loving worst.

Nevertheless, excited for four years of national election coverage unironically referring to Texas being solidly purple and wondering if there are going to be many Biden-Cotton/Haley/Pence voters in 24. (regardless of the outcome today, I'd be shocked if Texas was remotely close in 24)

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 21:09

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Pook Good Mook posted:

Honestly flipping the State House right before re-apportionment is going to net the Democrats like 6+ solid seats going forward.

It will also help forcing Republicans to spend money.

Oh don't get me wrong, a blue Texas in 2020, one that is like Beto writ large with the top of the ticket elevating unlikely down-ballot outcomes (such as the 2018 near clean sweep of Harris Co. officials) is fuckin dope. I do expect the House to flip, but I'm less optimistic about them locking in a 10 year congressional map with a highly conservative Senate across the hall. I don't see how a divided Texas legislature passes new maps ever, I imagine it'll come down to a court decision in 5 years or so. I think the more durable result (assuming 2018 Harris Co. like turnout in DFW) is bright blue urban and suburban counties locking in expansive voting procedures that massively expand infrastructure and thus turnout, like Harris did in 2018. They essentially tripled elections resources for '20 vs '18 and we can see how significant it's been so far.

I'm talking about Chuck Todd pretending like Texas is a toss up in 24, which I don't think will be the case (though I'd love to be wrong of course)

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 21:15

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

He's loving with us

# ¿ Nov 3, 2020 22:02

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Spiritus Nox posted:

Texas still hasn't reported anything out of El Paso.........

Mountain Time zone baby

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 02:49

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1323811355883962371

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 03:17

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1323811526315282432

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 03:18

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Zophar posted:

Folks gotta remember that Trump has never had a path to win without the rust belt.

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1323814649888935936

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 03:33

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323829439449497605

Also Trump may very well win, but remember the "Trump looks really good on election night and then fades as late counts come in" was the scenario everyone has been talking about for two weeks. I wanted a slam dunk early because I fell like I'm full of wasps but it might take a week or more.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 04:30

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

I was hoping for the early blowout because I don't want this in the courts. Regardless of the outcome there, it's a disaster.

Terminal autist posted:

Its mod cope, ban me too idc bernie would have won

Not Florida anyway

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 04:52

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

I mean, how do you campaign against this
https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1323827431178948615

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 04:54

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

cheetah7071 posted:

what's up with Trump expanding his lead in NC, I thought the remaining votes were all in Raleigh

NC numbers are all weird right now, they found some votes, they double reported some

https://twitter.com/tomangell/status/1323837412045393920

👏 Run 👏 on 👏 weed

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:09

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/DLind/status/1323840191254142976

No idea what state this is but loving Wolf man

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1323834010523545600

e: it's michigan

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:12

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Could be error, could be despair. Reminds me of CNN burying that Des Moines Register poll back in Iowa. It showed an unexpected result, and it disappeared. Maybe they are over-scrutinizing it.

The Seltzer +7 Trump poll or the one from the primaries? Seltzer spiked their own primary poll iirc

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1323841451357310978
:thunk:

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:19

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1323839724063252483
I dunno if this is a catchall election thread, I'm posting here because it's the good one so if I'm getting too off topic say something but:

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1323839724063252483

Wow.

Harlock posted:

Fox News calls Arizona for Biden

If that's indeed true the worst case now is 269-269 (which was always the worst case ofcourse lol)

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:21

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Antifa Turkeesian posted:

What about the D senator there who was projected to lose in the last poll?

That's the Trump +7 Seltzer. It gave everyone pause because it looked like no other polls out there and Ann Seltzer is the absolute platinum standard for IA polling.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:23

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://mobile.twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1323842529989742592

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:27

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

exquisite tea posted:

So now we have to stay up all night for WI and MI results huh.

More like stay up til Friday

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:33

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

I'm shook af rn actually

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:35

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/JoshuaGreen/status/1323846129914695680

Interesting if it holds, those were more in line with expected results from the MONOLITHIC LATINO VOTE which we may have to consider more multilithic going forward

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:36

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Neo_Crimson posted:

So Florida was mostly a Cuban thing overall, from the looks of it.

That also means Nevada is probably a lock.

The RGV and other border counties in Texas were a disaster BUT I've long maintained that national dems think Texas Latino voters are more Democratic than they actually are. They split evenly for Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott in 14, for example.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:39

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323846810440531968

Nate gently caress your needle

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:41

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1323847279866978304

Hmm I guess that abuela poo poo really worked

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:42

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1323847957922328577

Collins running 7+ vs Trump

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:46

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323851572904927232

Trumps gonna win Georgia *girls get mad at me* sorry, sorry I'm trying to fix it

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 05:57

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Kraftwerk posted:

So what are the chances that Trump declares victory tonight and forces the counting to stop?

Former who knows, latter, impossible

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:00

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

DorianGravy posted:

What other numbers can we expect to see tonight? Are important results still tickling in, or are have most states wrapped things up for the night?

Presuming the polls weren't off by more than 10 in WI/MI and either ME2 or NE2 gets called tonight we could "know"

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323853759718608896

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:05

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Someone explain this poo poo to me:

Why is GA called but not OH? Is there something I should know?

NYT hasn't called GA in fact they're stepping back on it

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323851572904927232

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:07

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323854833057779712

:nallears:

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:09

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Harlock posted:

NYT needle is now +.4 for Biden in GA.

Yeah that FL latino number really hosed up their cross state correlation calculation, it's also why they're pulling back on NC

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:11

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1323823119761592320

That's what's still out in GA

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:13

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Hand Row posted:

People are bitching about polling but what is particularly off at this point? The only one I am particular mad about is Gideon since that will probably gently caress the Senate dream.

I think that people were hoping we could go to bed restfully and that we'd see a massive repudiation of Trumpism and now are feeling very morose and angsty even though this was the likely outcome all along.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:15

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1323856166137548801

So is OH the harbinger for MI/WI or is MN

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:17

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

illcendiary posted:

I mean I have no idea what happens next but I feel better seeing the numbers slowly get bluer in the Midwest, as opposed to 2016

BTW this is exactly what everyone has been saying would be the case for weeks.

By this point in '16, it was cooked.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2020 06:22

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

RazzleDazzleHour posted:

I think it's funny reading this thread and seeing the absolute state of panic, and then calling my dad for his birthday who is a hardcore republican and has been watching Fox News literally all day and he is doing the exact same panicking

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1323852281763299329