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Arivia
Mar 17, 2011


In the hellworld of 2020, one thing remains constant, the same we can set our watch by every August: the Leafs humiliated themselves with a giant steamy poo poo in the first round of the playoffs, the media is baying for blood all across the organization, and lifetime fans like me are going "why the gently caress do we root for this lovely, lovely loving team."

How's your team doing? Probably better than mine

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Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

I'm excited to see both what Toronto tries to do in the offseason and what they actually do.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002


Hand Knit posted:

I'm excited to see both what Toronto tries to do in the offseason and what they actually do.

Enjoy Tony Deangelo!

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006



Fun Shoe

One more time Gary. One more time.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.


Hand Knit posted:

I'm excited to see both what Toronto tries to do in the offseason and what they actually do.

It's kind of funny that for all their moves last offseason, they actually ended up worse off.

Quickly reading Facebook comments on a Leafs post, the issue all lays on Nylander. They need GRIT.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



Twin Cinema posted:

Quickly reading Facebook comments on a Leafs post, the issue all lays on Nylander.

The Leafs haven't moved Nylander yet but I already know they lost the trade.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


My conspiracy theory is that the Leafs are going to move Morgan Rielly this offseason. They can't afford to extend him, they're deep on the left side, he would get a very good return because of tight cap for the next two years. Of course, if they move a big piece they can afford to extend him, but even then I saw a picture of him with his family on HFBoards and I don't know if I want to sign those genes into the late 30s.

Also, I think a lot of Leaf fans and media are kidding themselves about how easy it will be to offload Andreas Johnsson. He's had concussion issues, he's coming off a down year that included knee surgery, he's asthmatic in the midst of coronavirus, he takes dumb penalties, and his claims to fame are 1) scoring 20 goals while getting top line minutes 2) A point-per-game season in the AHL.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Twin Cinema posted:

It's kind of funny that for all their moves last offseason, they actually ended up worse off.

Quickly reading Facebook comments on a Leafs post, the issue all lays on Nylander. They need GRIT.

Fun fact: William Nylander had more points than Tavares in that series.

I made a qq effort post elsewhere about how every move and signing Dubas made in the offseason last year blew up in his face. A lot of his bets just didnít pay off, but most of them were seen as necessary or even lauded at the time. I just hope he and Keefe can be frank about where their evaluations didnít pan out and adjust accordingly.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006



Fun Shoe

Hand Knit posted:

I'm excited to see both what Toronto tries to do in the offseason and what they actually do.

I'm my usual mix of intrigued and horrified at the thought of what Rutherford might try to do to adjust to the latest failure.

Personally I'd like the Pens to not blow it up and just try to get rid of some dead weight. Get rid of JJ by any means possible whether it's buyout, trade, or burying him in the minors. Just eat the cost of that because he's an actively bad player. I'd also consider moving Murray and plan to go with Jarry as the guy moving forward. Murray has been trending the wrong way for a few years now and Jarry looks more promising at this point. Also let Schultz walk in free agency.

Beyond that? I dunno. I don't think it's time to move on from Sullivan yet.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



Andreas Johnson has maybe marginally more value than Josh Leivo. He'll be 26 soon and has had one goodish season and an injury plagued one yet he somehow costs $3.4m already. I wouldn't expect much more than a mid round pick as a return if that. No one is doing the Leafs any cap favours and he's still a relative unknown.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



ThinkTank posted:

Andreas Johnson has maybe marginally more value than Josh Leivo. He'll be 26 soon and has had one goodish season and an injury plagued one yet he somehow costs $3.4m already. I wouldn't expect much more than a mid round pick as a return if that. No one is doing the Leafs any cap favours and he's still a relative unknown.

I thought Johnsson should have been moved in the offseason, he was coming off 15% shooting and had 'rookie' shine to him. Him being injured and being bad when not injured was one of the most predictable gaffes of the season.

Ginette Reno posted:

I'm my usual mix of intrigued and horrified at the thought of what Rutherford might try to do to adjust to the latest failure.

Personally I'd like the Pens to not blow it up and just try to get rid of some dead weight. Get rid of JJ by any means possible whether it's buyout, trade, or burying him in the minors. Just eat the cost of that because he's an actively bad player. I'd also consider moving Murray and plan to go with Jarry as the guy moving forward. Murray has been trending the wrong way for a few years now and Jarry looks more promising at this point. Also let Schultz walk in free agency.

Beyond that? I dunno. I don't think it's time to move on from Sullivan yet.

I mean, Pittsburgh's path to success is basically 1) stay healthy and 2) get rid of Jack Johnson somehow, I don't know that they need to do much else.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



Yeah, he's bordering on a negative asset at that cost. He could be moved in a change of scenery type deal for another struggling player on a mid sized contract, but what's the point?

Honestly, I think the Leafs are okay cap wise. Ceci and Barrie will walk but Sandin and Liljegren will likely be mostly ready to go. They can sign a couple cheap vets in case they aren't. There aren't really any untraceable contracts on that team either. People whine about what Marner and Matthews cost, but there would be insane bidding wars if there was even an inkling either could be pried away from Toronto. Nylander's name always comes up in rumours because that's a good deal for him. Reilly is on a sweetheart deal for two more years so don't even consider moving him unless it's an amazing trade. Even Andersen isn't terribly overpaid and is gone next summer if he doesn't work out.

Really, the Leafs struggles have all just been bad luck more than anything. Dubas and co. should stay the course because that's still a good team which of course means they're blowing it up in November.

Carver
Jan 14, 2003



The biggest thing that worries me is definitely the idea that getting rid of Sullivan might take hold - I don't believe that will change anything at all.

I don't think Rutherford will bite the bullet and buyout Johnson just yet but one can hope. lol if he actually is able to trade him

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

Twin Cinema posted:

It's kind of funny that for all their moves last offseason, they actually ended up worse off.

I feel like I suggested that at the time? I know for sure I said that there was no way to trade Kadri for value at the time, and you needed to have a very high opinion of either Alex Kerfoot or defenceman handedness to think that Kadri + Gardiner => Barrie + Kerfoot was an improvement. I guess we all had higher hopes for Johnsson and some of the depth wingers. I don't think anyone foresaw Barrie being this much of a mess, too. What a mess.

Koopa Kid posted:

I made a qq effort post elsewhere about how every move and signing Dubas made in the offseason last year blew up in his face. A lot of his bets just didn't pay off, but most of them were seen as necessary or even lauded at the time. I just hope he and Keefe can be frank about where their evaluations didn't pan out and adjust accordingly.

It's a complicated position. On the one hand, it would be bad to blow up a team because they got the poo poo end of puck luck and shot <2% over a short stretch where they were getting to the good areas both reliably and frequently. On the other, there definitely seems to be something materially wrong with the way the Leafs are constructed that goes beyond just having a bunch of lovely D. As people have mentioned elsewhere, even if you accept they got unlucky, and even if you accept that the D are bad, they still seem to be well less than the sum of their parts. So what gives?

One thought that crosses my mind is that the roster is still partly constructed for Babcock, and his preference to have a grinder-type on every line. This gives you a roster that's got a bunch of players who want to play North-South and a bunch of players who want to play East-West. The result is players who are individually fine but can't really play together.

Hand Knit fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Aug 10, 2020

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006



Fun Shoe

Koopa Kid posted:

I mean, Pittsburgh's path to success is basically 1) stay healthy and 2) get rid of Jack Johnson somehow, I don't know that they need to do much else.

They've been weirdly flat in their last two playoff series but that can happen in a short series and I think a lot of frustrated fans are reading too much into that. I don't think I want them to blow it up either coaching or roster-wise. And I'm not sure what that would even look like if they did go that route. You don't trade Malkin or Letang. You don't trade Guentzel. So there's no other real "blow up" moves to do short of firing the coach which I think the timing doesn't feel right on that yet.

If they go another year with a good regular season and a poop postseason then maybe get rid of Sully, but I wouldn't get rid of him after one abbreviated playoff series this year in the most surreal sporting environment a team/coach could be in.

Like how does any team make any confident evaluations about players/coaches amidst a pandemic?

Carver posted:

The biggest thing that worries me is definitely the idea that getting rid of Sullivan might take hold - I don't believe that will change anything at all.

I don't think Rutherford will bite the bullet and buyout Johnson just yet but one can hope. lol if he actually is able to trade him

I don't think that would change anything either. It's frustrating to have two straight playoff series where the team looked lifeless (and three straight exits overall) but I think Sullivan has earned at least one more shot at it. And I think some minor roster tweaks would go a long way.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


ThinkTank posted:

Reilly is on a sweetheart deal for two more years so don't even consider moving him unless it's an amazing trade.

Kadri was on a sweetheart deal. And they dealt him because come playoff time he cared too much about his teammates.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

ThinkTank posted:

Yeah, he's bordering on a negative asset at that cost. He could be moved in a change of scenery type deal for another struggling player on a mid sized contract, but what's the point?

Honestly, I think the Leafs are okay cap wise. Ceci and Barrie will walk but Sandin and Liljegren will likely be mostly ready to go. They can sign a couple cheap vets in case they aren't. There aren't really any untraceable contracts on that team either. People whine about what Marner and Matthews cost, but there would be insane bidding wars if there was even an inkling either could be pried away from Toronto. Nylander's name always comes up in rumours because that's a good deal for him. Reilly is on a sweetheart deal for two more years so don't even consider moving him unless it's an amazing trade. Even Andersen isn't terribly overpaid and is gone next summer if he doesn't work out.

Really, the Leafs struggles have all just been bad luck more than anything. Dubas and co. should stay the course because that's still a good team which of course means they're blowing it up in November.

I can foresee getting value from trading Marner in the extremely specific circumstance that (1) the gap between his signing bonus and salary is valuable to the receiving team such that (2) they're willing to give up a defenceman of equivalent quality. Any trade of Marner where salary dumping is a significant part of the Leafs' theoretical return would be a disaster.

On Rielly, I think it depends on how bad you think his defence is. He doesn't make a ton of money, but I think at this point it's also safe to say that his defence isn't good enough to be the #1 guy. (That's Muzzin for now, I guess.) So it's possible that there's a team out there that looks at him as a number one guy on a good deal for two more years, and you can make something happen out of that. Of course, that also puts the Leafs in the position of basically looking to fill three of their top 6 instead of two (Muzzin, Dermott, and Holl being here to stay), and that seems a lot more difficult.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006



Fun Shoe

I wonder how the team that will get Lafreniere will react to that in terms of roster moves. Would that spur the Leafs to move someone like Nylander, for example?

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land






To me, the Leafs are extremely top heavy and dont have the depth to make up for the big boys having a bad game or 4. For the Flyers, the Giroux line did gently caress all offensively, but the Raffls and NAKs all stepped up and scored some goals. The Leafs bottom 6, not so much. And Cody Ceci, lol

Since Koopa likes to blame Anderson, how many more years on his contract

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



Hand Knit posted:

On the other, there definitely seems to be something materially wrong with the way the Leafs are constructed that goes beyond just having a bunch of lovely D. As people have mentioned elsewhere, even if you accept they got unlucky, and even if you accept that the D are bad, they still seem to be well less than the sum of their parts. So what gives?

I really don't agree. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with a team that shoots 2%. That just doesn't happen consistently. They've had awful luck that people interpret as some failing of character. Heads will roll for this and I can't point to anything that is wrong with the team. They shoot from high danger areas, possess the puck and get acceptable goaltending. There are areas for improvement, but if your takeaway from a couple bad deciding games is "there's something wrong with this team" then you're missing the forest for the trees. They've been consistently very good, but had been weighed down by the expectations that has created.

Take Marner for example. He was "awful" but had a hand in 4 of the team's 10 goals. I'm not sure you can blame him for anything. What more did he need to do other than pick up the puck and throw it into the net? He wasn't amazing, but literally no one was. Yet he's the whipping boy this year. In the past its been Matthews when he's not scored every shift.

There will be some dumb panic trade now because the team has been historically unlucky. Nothing about this team now says poorly constructed or unbalanced, but you can bet some team is going to take advantage of that misconception and take the Leafs to the cleaners. Then you'll have something materially wrong with them.

DJExile
Jun 27, 2007



Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

To me, the Leafs are extremely top heavy and dont have the depth to make up for the big boys having a bad game or 4. For the Flyers, the Giroux line did gently caress all offensively, but the Raffls and NAKs all stepped up and scored some goals. The Leafs bottom 6, not so much. And Cody Ceci, lol

Since Koopa likes to blame Anderson, how many more years on his contract

Just 1.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

To me, the Leafs are extremely top heavy and dont have the depth to make up for the big boys having a bad game or 4. For the Flyers, the Giroux line did gently caress all offensively, but the Raffls and NAKs all stepped up and scored some goals. The Leafs bottom 6, not so much. And Cody Ceci, lol

Since Koopa likes to blame Anderson, how many more years on his contract

I should say, I get real negative on the guy but only because thereís a prevailing sentiment in the media and fan base that heís more than he is. He gets the benefit of the doubt because of the Leafs reputation as a defensive garbage fire, but he actually had easy work relative to his peers as a starter this year and the Leafs were a middling defensive team not a brutal one.

Andersenís an average starter and he should be more than enough for the Leafs to advance. But this is a capped out team, he cost a lot to acquire, and he might actually be a choker in the playoffs.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


The Leafs best defender on the right side is Justin Holl. After that it's Liljegren. They don't like Rielly or Dermott on the right side for whatever reason. The cupboard is completely bare. They've had problems on the right side forever and there's always been good reasons why they couldn't go after a solution. Either the FA market is barren or the right trade partner isn't out there etc. This offseason there are some good options in FA and potentially in trade, and but they need to move cap to make a deal.

The front office knows they have a problem on the right side and has moved a core piece before to try and fix it (Kadri), it just didn't work out.

I would be tempted to move Marner, but I'd rather deal Rielly+Kapanen than any of Matthews, Marner, or Nylander.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002


Georgiev and Deangleo for Lil Willy, lets get it done Jeff /hfbaords

Flyinglemur
Jul 2, 2004

Oh Lucy, I do apologize, I been so terribly busy. Honestly, I barely have the time to drink deep and descend.


Maybe step one in Pittsburgh is to kick out the broom handle that supports the withered dying lump of what used to be Jim Ruhterford and move on from there

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



Ginette Reno posted:

I'm my usual mix of intrigued and horrified at the thought of what Rutherford might try to do to adjust to the latest failure.

Personally I'd like the Pens to not blow it up and just try to get rid of some dead weight. Get rid of JJ by any means possible whether it's buyout, trade, or burying him in the minors. Just eat the cost of that because he's an actively bad player. I'd also consider moving Murray and plan to go with Jarry as the guy moving forward. Murray has been trending the wrong way for a few years now and Jarry looks more promising at this point. Also let Schultz walk in free agency.

Beyond that? I dunno. I don't think it's time to move on from Sullivan yet.

Let Schultz walk and get rid of JMFJ obviously priorities. You're going to have to replace those minutes somehow and lmao at GM JRs last few swings at that. I'd probably think about moving Hornqvist and Bjustad to free up cap space. Sheary appears to be more a 30pt player that lucked into 50 points that one time. I'm kinda on the fence with him being 28 so there's only 1 direction he goes. Murray I'm fine with showing some faith in him, but depends on the contract.

You're basically looking at replacing/building a bottom pairing in the rummage bin. Vatanen, Demelo, Dillon, or some such could work. Internal solutions sort of exist except Riikola isn't trusted at all. If Joseph is 'ready' that might solve something. Even so you probably want 8'ish competent defensemen 'cause of the injuries. I don't think the Pens can afford any of the 'Big 3' this offseason (Krug, Pietra, Barrie) although Schultz clears up 5.5 just on his own. What's available at forward is even more dire. Relying on Rust to shoot 17% again probably a bad idea. Granted you land Laf and that problem sort of solves itself.

TITTIEKISSER69
Mar 19, 2005

I'M JUST HERE TO KISS TITTIESS AND WIN FOOTBALL GAMES!
(AND GET EVERYBODY FIRED)


Pillbug

Flyinglemur posted:

Maybe step one in Pittsburgh is to kick out the broom handle that supports the withered dying lump of what used to be Jim Ruhterford and move on from there

Dale Tallon is available. He'll get rid of Jack Johnson and bring in his man Brent Seabrook.

Albino Squirrel
Apr 25, 2003

Miosis more like meiosis

Who's available for goalies in FA this year? Asking for a friend (the Edmonton Oilers).


Also gently caress Chiarelli and basically everyone in Oilers management after Glen Sather.

Kilza
Oct 3, 2013



Albino Squirrel posted:

Who's available for goalies in FA this year? Asking for a friend (the Edmonton Oilers).

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/...hit/all/goalies

Lehner is the best option available IMO

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land







giving a massive contract to Holtby seems like peak Oilers

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

giving a massive contract to Holtby seems like peak Oilers

Came here to say exactly thi


Or...

Jimmy Howard

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

ThinkTank posted:

I really don't agree. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with a team that shoots 2%. That just doesn't happen consistently. They've had awful luck that people interpret as some failing of character. Heads will roll for this and I can't point to anything that is wrong with the team. They shoot from high danger areas, possess the puck and get acceptable goaltending. There are areas for improvement, but if your takeaway from a couple bad deciding games is "there's something wrong with this team" then you're missing the forest for the trees. They've been consistently very good, but had been weighed down by the expectations that has created.

To be clear, this isn't about this series. Of course their underling stats this series were really good. But at the point the regular season ended they had 36 wins in 70 games with a +11 goal differential. They were at 52% corsi, and 51.5% through whatever natural stat trick's expected goals model is (good for 12th in the league). Those are mostly middling results, with only goals for and corsi% standing out as pointedly above average (and 52% corsi is really nothing special). I think that the roster, as constructed, should be better than that. This is not a roster that, over 70 games, should have only won half of them.

Albino Squirrel
Apr 25, 2003

Miosis more like meiosis

Goddamn, I forgot Koskinen's contract runs for two more years at 4.5 mil per. Chiaaaaaaaaaaa!

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I think it can be true that the Leafs straight up got goalie'd in their series and also the team has issues around the vision and talent evaluation for the roster.

Any team that thinks Ceci, Marincin, and Calle Rosen are worthy additions to a team they see as a contender is stuck in the AHL. Keeping permanent roster spots for JAGs from the Marlies Calder run like Gauthier, Dermott, Johnsson, and Holl has ended up being expensive and carries an opportunity cost that most people don't mention. Other teams can successfully fill depth roles with guys who have some sort of NHL utility, the Leafs have filled their bottom lines with AAA minor leaguers.

DOOMocrat
Oct 2, 2003



For the first offseason in a decade I think the Leafs should do as little as possible (except maybe try to sell a few anchors) and give Keefe the full year.

De-Babcockification does not and cannot happen overnight.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

Koopa Kid posted:

I think it can be true that the Leafs straight up got goalie'd in their series and also the team has issues around the vision and talent evaluation for the roster.

Any team that thinks Ceci, Marincin, and Calle Rosen are worthy additions to a team they see as a contender is stuck in the AHL. Keeping permanent roster spots for JAGs from the Marlies Calder run like Gauthier, Dermott, Johnsson, and Holl has ended up being expensive and carries an opportunity cost that most people don't mention. Other teams can successfully fill depth roles with guys who have some sort of NHL utility, the Leafs have filled their bottom lines with AAA minor leaguers.

I mean, I don't think that the team saw Ceci, Marincin, and Rosen as worthy additions. Ceci was a cost of getting rid of the execrable Zaitsev contract (and may have straightforwardly been a better player than Zaitsev to boot).Marincin was signed in January after injuries and other failures had depleted the blue line. e: got this part wrong but he definitely wasn't their first choice coming into camp. Dermott and Johnsson were widely seen as decent young players and Gauthier, playing 9 minutes a night on the 4th line, is not seriously affecting the team's outcomes.

I don't think Ceci, Marincin, and Rosen represent an evaluative failure, but one of front office strategy. They either over-estimated their ability to find players on the cheap (which they didn't do, forcing them to go back to the Marincin well), or made a mistake about how easy it would be to acquire a good defenceman through trade. Similarly, I don't think you can attribute that much of the team's struggles to Marlies graduates.

The defence has to be better, the team's pipeline is suffering from a bad series of drafts 4-5 years ago, but I don't think that translates to a failure of talent evaluation on the part of the current front office.

Hand Knit fucked around with this message at 18:04 on Aug 10, 2020

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

DOOMocrat posted:

For the first offseason in a decade I think the Leafs should do as little as possible (except maybe try to sell a few anchors) and give Keefe the full year.

De-Babcockification does not and cannot happen overnight.

This is mostly correct with the exception that the blue line probably requires at least one moderately significant move.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007




Like, I think if you choose to sign and keep players who are bad, and they play and are bad, you should probably wear those decisions. I donít subscribe to the idea that this Leafs roster was somehow inevitable or even put upon Dubas. He had options and this is what he went with.

This widespread belief among Leafs fans that the team outside of the big 4 is either inconsequential or actually full of good young depth is hard to reconcile with the teamís performance as a top-heavy roster with no secondary scoring and no ability to defend from any line. I think if a team has huge holes in their play then the team is probably full of bad players, and the vast majority of players on this team have contracts Dubas have them.

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

~~ smooches ~~


SilvergunSuperman posted:

Always nice to see people come out of the woodwork to applaud the Leafs losing, it's not like your team will do any better but on the upside at least nobody will care enough to post about it.

just wanted to get one more lol in from the old thread


lol

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fits
Jan 1, 2008

Love Always,
The Captain


the edmonton oilers will win the nhl draft lottery

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