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WeaponX
Jul 28, 2008





Hey Pierre you can just look up Blocked Shots stat itís not that loving hard

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Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

HEY LITTLE SIDNEY WANT TO SEE MY CANNOLI?


he's right that the internet stats community is insufferable but also NHL GMs are dumb and bad so probably best to just kill yourself

grassy gnoll
Aug 27, 2006

The pawsting business is tough work.

Gun Saliva

eXXon posted:

Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie vanishing into the ether is going to help.

I heard that Laviolette is actually a bad coach who got lucky a couple of times, which probably describes most NHL GMs and coaches but anyway!

Laviolette's a pretty good coach more often than not. He's not, oh, I dunno, John Hynes.

BitBasher
Jun 6, 2004

You've got to know the rules before you can break 'em. Otherwise, it's no fun.

So DeBoer coaches another team that shits the bed on the road for the cup.

Shocking that! It seems to be entirely on brand for him.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007




eXXon posted:

Johnsson is pretty much a given and would have no impact on the bottom 6; there are plenty of bodies to replace him. Muzzin is going nowhere. Kerfoot, eh? I suppose he could go for a cheaper replacement but probably not. Someone has to play 3C and Spezza/Engvall/random free agent isn't a great list.

Thereís approximately an article a week that break down the Leafs cap...

With no moves other than resigning Mikheyev and Dermott for 1 year bridges (and Dermott might be expendable if they get a big D) they have about 3.7 to spend.

The Athletic tried to do a roster with Pieterangelo for 8.5 and it was doable with dumping Jonhnsson, Engvall for minimum guys and downgrading Freddie for a goalie at 3.2. Itíd be running a 20 man roster for the full season so it would be doable but probably not worth it without dumping Kerfoot as well.

They are probably shopping in the 5ish range with 6-7 being the top end of what would be doable without making core changes.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



BitBasher posted:

So DeBoer coaches another team that shits the bed on the road for the cup.

Shocking that! It seems to be entirely on brand for him.

He was supposed to coach the Knights to a cup finals loss because then he'd lose in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds in consecutive years but sadly reality isn't fun like that.

Also that would've been his third cup finals loss. Shame.

grack
Jan 10, 2012

COACH TOTORO SAY REFEREE CAN BANISH WHISTLE TO LAND OF WIND AND GHOSTS!


BitBasher posted:

So DeBoer coaches another team that shits the bed on the road for the cup.

Shocking that! It seems to be entirely on brand for him.

Just imagine, we could've had a situation where DeBoer took three separate teams to the Cup finals and lost each time.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018


Having the courage to block a shot is like 90% of the NHL

DJExile
Jun 27, 2007



crosspostin


Toledo Blade posted:

The U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame inducted former Bowling Green coach Jerry York as part of its class of 2020.

York is the NCAA leader in wins with 1,091 as a head coach at Clarkson, BGSU, and Boston College. The upcoming season will be York's 49th, and 27th with Boston College.

York guided Bowling Green to a national championship in 1984, which remains the only team NCAA title in school history. He went 342-248-31 (.567) at Bowling Green, including three 30-win seasons.

Since taking over at Boston College, his alma mater, York's teams have won four national championships and made 12 appearances in the Frozen Four.

York was inducted along with Tony Granato, Jenny Potter, and Dean Blais when the class was announced Monday night. The class will be enshrined along with the class of 2021, which has yet to be named, in a ceremony in December, 2021.

York will be the second former Falcon in the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame, joining player Ken Morrow, who played at BGSU 1975 to 1979. Morrow was inducted in 1995.

This latest honor is the second time in less than a year York's body of work has been recognized. In November, he became the Hockey Hall of Fame's first inductee to coach exclusively in the NCAA.


If Blais' name sounds familiar, he's on his second stint as the USA U-20 head coach currently. He won 2 national championships as the head coach of the Univ. of North Dakota.

Jenny Potter was a 4-time all american at Minn-Duluth and has a shitload of medals from the olympics and world championships.

WeaponX
Jul 28, 2008




Pierre hasnít had a job with any NHL team since 1996 yet he thinks he should be given a GM position. What a classic entitled millennial.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


At the start of the offseason I didn't want the Leafs to break up the big four forwards, but I'm thinking this cash crisis might be the best opportunity the Leafs get to move Mitch Marner because his contract is very, very attractive to a few cap floor teams right now.

Even though he's paid $35 million cash over 5 years Marner's contract this year is cheaper than an ELC with bonuses. The very lowest cap floor teams like Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, and maybe Jersey get to benefit from the spread between Marner's league minimum salary and cap hit, $10 million. If these teams acquire Marner and only spend to the floor they would save that money. Effectively, minus the savings from spread, Marner's contract only costs just under $25 million for 5 years.

That's assuming they don't just turn around and trade him before his bonus next year. Call it the Melnyk Scenario. In that case, assuming the asset cost of acquiring Marner this year and next year is similar, and he might get you more in trade next year because of Seattle, a year of austerity's impact on cap space, reopening etc., you could get Marner on your team for a year and it wouldn't cost you any cash or assets at all. In fact, it would save you $10 million.

If we really want to get silly, you could bounce Marner around the league every year by trading him to a cash rich team, letting them pay the bonus, then trading him to another cap floor team for them to reap the savings from the spread. His contract would become an end around that allows cash rich teams to buy assets for money and cap floor teams to spend $10 million below the floor. Eventually, in 2023 he gets a NMC and could put a stop to it.

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012


BitBasher posted:

So DeBoer coaches another team that shits the bed on the road for the cup.

Shocking that! It seems to be entirely on brand for him.
Isn't that just saying he didn't win the Cup?

Zodijackylite
Oct 18, 2005

i'm so fuckkin pumped now arty i'm seein these big numbers next to my name it's like i outscored the guy we got traded for... whoa nasher you look like you had a rough season, you could use a vacation, i bet cally's got a lot of free time down in tampa.

pseudodragon posted:

The Athletic tried to do a roster with Pieterangelo for 8.5 and it was doable with dumping Jonhnsson, Engvall for minimum guys and downgrading Freddie for a goalie at 3.2. Itíd be running a 20 man roster for the full season so it would be doable but probably not worth it without dumping Kerfoot as well.

I don't get why they'd dump Engvall, who's a good player with a 1.25m cap hit, but I'm curious if he might end up traded to the Rangers for Georgiev, with the Leafs dumping Anderson to a cash-poor team since he's only due 1m in salary this year and is a better goalie than armchair Leafs GMs think he is.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

Again, Torts took him to a very high mountain and showed him Nationwide and all its splendor.

"All this I will give you," he said, "if you will lay down and block for me." -Jackets 15:16




Campbell and Geoffrion were both CBJ staff who followed Zito to Fancy Cats.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



Flocons de Jambon posted:

At the start of the offseason I didn't want the Leafs to break up the big four forwards, but I'm thinking this cash crisis might be the best opportunity the Leafs get to move Mitch Marner because his contract is very, very attractive to a few cap floor teams right now.

Even though he's paid $35 million cash over 5 years Marner's contract this year is cheaper than an ELC with bonuses. The very lowest cap floor teams like Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, and maybe Jersey get to benefit from the spread between Marner's league minimum salary and cap hit, $10 million. If these teams acquire Marner and only spend to the floor they would save that money. Effectively, minus the savings from spread, Marner's contract only costs just under $25 million for 5 years.

That's assuming they don't just turn around and trade him before his bonus next year. Call it the Melnyk Scenario. In that case, assuming the asset cost of acquiring Marner this year and next year is similar, and he might get you more in trade next year because of Seattle, a year of austerity's impact on cap space, reopening etc., you could get Marner on your team for a year and it wouldn't cost you any cash or assets at all. In fact, it would save you $10 million.

If we really want to get silly, you could bounce Marner around the league every year by trading him to a cash rich team, letting them pay the bonus, then trading him to another cap floor team for them to reap the savings from the spread. His contract would become an end around that allows cash rich teams to buy assets for money and cap floor teams to spend $10 million below the floor. Eventually, in 2023 he gets a NMC and could put a stop to it.

Teams don't give up assets for a cap dump usually. And the perceived value of Marner as such is hilarious. Not sure how dumping Marner for an old UFA D man gets the Leafs any closer to a cup either.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


I'm a big Georgiev fan, and would love for the Leafs to get him.

Engvall's okay. If he can stick at center he's a bargain at his contract, but if he's a winger they have options there, including some league minimum contracts. Every 500k against the cap counts.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


rex rabidorum vires posted:

Teams don't give up assets for a cap dump usually. And the perceived value of Marner as such is hilarious. Not sure how dumping Marner for an old UFA D man gets the Leafs any closer to a cup either.

I was thinking more like the Kessel from Boston trade. Ottawa or New Jersey have the picks to do it.

I doubt the Leafs do it either, but maybe they should.

DJExile
Jun 27, 2007



Flocons what are you drinking or smoking or otherwise consuming because fuckin lmao that is 1,000% not happening

Kilza
Oct 3, 2013



https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/sta...058263323082753

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



Flocons de Jambon posted:

I was thinking more like the Kessel from Boston trade. Ottawa or New Jersey have the picks to do it.

I doubt the Leafs do it either, but maybe they should.

The Leafs should have probably not signed JT and went full win now mode before they had stocked the cupboard better. I think they also did a lovely job with how they went about negotiating Matthews and Marner's deal. How all that went down is a bit fuzzy though so maybe they didn't gently caress up as bad there. Ottawa or NJ handing out picks like candy for Marner and his contract would be insanely dumb especially if they are trying to game the cap like you originally proposed. Finally, the only teams that 'won' the Kessel trade were Boston and Pittsburgh and even then Toronto is still retaining money on Kessel. Ott handing over one of their firsts for Marner with a bunch retained still seems fanciful as hell and again I don't see how that moves Toronto closer to a cup.

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


It's just interesting to me because the way Marner's contract is structured he has value in this situation that doesn't come from him being a hockey player. He's a $10 million cheque that only cheap teams can cash.

DJExile
Jun 27, 2007



Flocons de Jambon posted:

It's just interesting to me because the way Marner's contract is structured he has value in this situation that doesn't come from him being a hockey player. He's a $10 million cheque that only cheap teams can cash.




what


E:

Flocons de Jambon posted:

I was thinking more like the Kessel from Boston trade. Ottawa or New Jersey have the picks to do it.

I doubt the Leafs do it either, but maybe they should.

Noted lover of check-writing Eugene Melnyk

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


Teams are required to spend to the cap floor. There are a couple teams that very far from that floor. Mitch Marner's cap hit is $10,893,000. His actual salary this year is $750,000 (capfriendly says $700,000, but I think this got bumped up by the CBA). One of those teams that's very far from the floor gets to count Marner's cap hit towards their cap without spending any money. Assuming they're not going to spend more than they have to to reach the cap floor Marner saves the team $10,000,000 because of the difference between his cap hit and salary.

Flocons de Jambon fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Sep 16, 2020

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



Flocons de Jambon posted:

It's just interesting to me because the way Marner's contract is structured he has value in this situation that doesn't come from him being a hockey player. He's a $10 million cheque that only cheap teams can cash.

That only applies for this 1 season. I guess if I squinted really hard and Ottawa was that close to insolvency I could see them throwing a 1st round pick away to save that money then retain and move Marner later to recoup their losses. If Ottawa were close to being broke I'm pretty sure we would already be somewhat aware of it and I think the NHL would be significantly more involved like they have been with Arizona.

If you are talking about improving the Leafs anything involving Marner or Matthews and their contracts likely will be a losing trade imo. Nylander is the likeliest to move because his deal is significantly more palatable to a wide variety of teams. However, outside of a few specific 2 way defenseman already on very good deals it would be hard to add and prevent enough goals to replace that forward scoring for a similar cap hit.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007




Zodijackylite posted:

I don't get why they'd dump Engvall, who's a good player with a 1.25m cap hit, but I'm curious if he might end up traded to the Rangers for Georgiev, with the Leafs dumping Anderson to a cash-poor team since he's only due 1m in salary this year and is a better goalie than armchair Leafs GMs think he is.

That example roster had them 85k under the cap so going from 1.25 to a rando .7 was kinda needed as an easy dump. Heís probably low on the list of guys theyíd want to trade, but 1.25 for a 4th liner was a luxury a full stars and scrubs build couldnít afford.

rex rabidorum vires posted:

That only applies for this 1 season. I guess if I squinted really hard and Ottawa was that close to insolvency I could see them throwing a 1st round pick away to save that money then retain and move Marner later to recoup their losses. If Ottawa were close to being broke I'm pretty sure we would already be somewhat aware of it and I think the NHL would be significantly more involved like they have been with Arizona.

The year of the trade is the biggest savings since he always makes super giant bonus + minimum salary so as long as heís traded after bonus day, itís a big windfall for a cheap team. But his contract is cheap team friendly every year as next season his salary+bonus is 500k less than his cap hit and every year after that heís 2.9 mill cash savings compared to his cap even with paying his bonus.

pseudodragon fucked around with this message at 03:14 on Sep 16, 2020

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007




Edit: double post

Flocons de Jambon
Apr 11, 2015


pseudodragon posted:

The year of the trade is the biggest savings since he always makes super giant bonus + minimum salary so as long as heís traded after bonus day, itís a big windfall for a cheap team. But his contract is cheap team friendly every year as next season his salary+bonus is 500k less than his cap hit and every year after that heís 2.9 mill cash savings compared to his cap even with paying his bonus.

I agree, Marner's contract wouldn't be difficult to move any other year.

I don't want the Leafs to move Marner to dump his cap hit, I expect value in return. I'm only emphasizing this year because the market of cap floor teams is the largest its going to be, and those cap floor teams would value the 15%-off-team-payroll coupon that is the Marner contract more this year than any other. Bigger market plus extra motivation to cut costs might make one of them overpay.

It's all theoretical anyway. They've come out and said they're not trading him. I'm just trying to point out the opportunity they could be missing.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



It's a hard sell because a team like Ottawa trying to hit the cap floor while paying far less than that in real salary would need to be pretty sure they could move him in a year otherwise they're stuck with a giant cheque to sign. It's probably easier for them to get a first round pick in return for one of the many bad contracts out there, of course Marner is a legitimate talent so it's a consideration.

With that said, the Leafs are very much in their window. If the idea is to deal from a position of strength up front to shore up other areas (defence) there haven't been too many hockey trades of that variety in recent years. The only comparable I can think of was Johansen for Jones, otherwise superstars are really only traded for futures. I guess the idea could be to pocket some money and go after someone like Pietrangelo in free agency, but is the team really improved by losing 23 year old Marner for $10.8m and adding 30 year old Pietrangelo for $9.5m? I'd say absolutely not.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



pseudodragon posted:

The year of the trade is the biggest savings since he always makes super giant bonus + minimum salary so as long as heís traded after bonus day, itís a big windfall for a cheap team. But his contract is cheap team friendly every year as next season his salary+bonus is 500k less than his cap hit and every year after that heís 2.9 mill cash savings compared to his cap even with paying his bonus.

ThinkTank posted:

It's a hard sell because a team like Ottawa trying to hit the cap floor while paying far less than that in real salary would need to be pretty sure they could move him in a year otherwise they're stuck with a giant cheque to sign.

This is the point I was getting at. It is only a guaranteed real dollar savings this year.

Flocons de Jambon posted:

I agree, Marner's contract wouldn't be difficult to move any other year.

I don't want the Leafs to move Marner to dump his cap hit, I expect value in return. I'm only emphasizing this year because the market of cap floor teams is the largest its going to be, and those cap floor teams would value the 15%-off-team-payroll coupon that is the Marner contract more this year than any other. Bigger market plus extra motivation to cut costs might make one of them overpay.

Uh moving the 7th largest contract by cap hit in the NHL would be difficult at the best of times and receiving equal 'value' for it is going to be quite the trick. Usually teams looking to move this player would be getting a bucket full of picks/prospects and rebuilding not flipping one of their stars and praying. Your 'ideal' trade would be Marner + whatever for someone like Dougie Ham, Werenski, and a handful of signed cost controlled exceptional defenseman while also hoping to throw in a some picks and maybe a rando player for roster/bottom 6 contributors and whatever. At the end of the day the Leafs have the exact same problem they have had for a few seasons now - Having way too much money tied up in 3 players and having to build and balance everything else around that. Which throwing Marner around to an Ottawa as a cap dump doesn't solve at all.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



rex rabidorum vires posted:

This is the point I was getting at. It is only a guaranteed real dollar savings this year.

Yeah and Marner would inevitably see a drop in production away from the offensive system of Toronto and asked to be the main guy. 80-90pt Marner is absolutely worth his cap hit as an outstanding complimenary piece. If he drops to 60ish points I'm not sure too many folks would be keen on taking him on.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



ThinkTank posted:

Yeah and Marner would inevitably see a drop in production away from the offensive system of Toronto and asked to be the main guy. 80-90pt Marner is absolutely worth his cap hit as an outstanding complimenary piece. If he drops to 60ish points I'm not sure too many folks would be keen on taking him on.

Matthews - $145k per point and 8k per minute. Marner - $162k per point and $8.5k per minute. Tavares - $183k and 9k per minute. McDavid is $128k and 9k per minute. Rantanen $225k and 11k per minute. Drai 77k and 5.5k. Panarin - $122k and 8k. Pastrnak $70k and 5k. Kuch - $111k and $7.4k. Eichel - 128k and 6.6k. I feel pretty confident in saying Marner/Matthews/Tavares are mild overpayments and that's a much bigger issue. Nylander works out to $118k and $5.6k. Marner and Tavares both missed a bit of time so they can get a little leeway there so adjusted for 1.15 ppg and it's ~135k per for Marner and $165 for Tavares. Still seems on the high end relative to the recent comparables

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007




rex rabidorum vires posted:

This is the point I was getting at. It is only a guaranteed real dollar savings this year.
How is it only a cash savings this year? This year is obviously the biggest savings at 750k for a 10 million hit, but going forward he's at a 10.8 million cap hit, but his salary+ bonus is 10.3 next year and 8 the rest of the way. If you're a cap floor team, you still get about 7 million in cash in 2021-25.

If they trade him next year, it's even better. The receiving team still gets the 750k salary/10 million cap year which actually wipes out the remaining year where he's about even on the cap and all they get are the cheaper years.

Mike_V
Jul 31, 2004

Let's* go Blackhawks! The Blues and Red Wings suck.


Goddammit. He is an incredible scout and the Blues drafts are gonna get worse if they don't hire/promote the correct person

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007



pseudodragon posted:

How is it only a cash savings this year? This year is obviously the biggest savings at 750k for a 10 million hit, but going forward he's at a 10.8 million cap hit, but his salary+ bonus is 10.3 next year and 8 the rest of the way. If you're a cap floor team, you still get about 7 million in cash in 2021-25.

If they trade him next year, it's even better. The receiving team still gets the 750k salary/10 million cap year which actually wipes out the remaining year where he's about even on the cap and all they get are the cheaper years.

So you are back to treating Marner like a cap dump which doesn't net you the assets the Leafs will want to compete. If you are coming at it from a 3 million dollar 'savings' of cap hit vs payout which considering what the Penguins were rumored to have an 'internal cap' and moving towards some sort of austerity I could maybe see something hilarious happening. That moves you back to 'hockey trade' territory and at least in the vague realm of possibility considering both teams could use a shake up and have a history of trading with each other.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007




rex rabidorum vires posted:

So you are back to treating Marner like a cap dump which doesn't net you the assets the Leafs will want to compete. If you are coming at it from a 3 million dollar 'savings' of cap hit vs payout which considering what the Penguins were rumored to have an 'internal cap' and moving towards some sort of austerity I could maybe see something hilarious happening. That moves you back to 'hockey trade' territory and at least in the vague realm of possibility considering both teams could use a shake up and have a history of trading with each other.

Whether or not they should trade him is a completely separate issue from whether or not his contract would be a positive or negative value.

I donít think the Leafs should trade Marner because they wonít get equal hockey value for him, which at this point is what they should be concerned about. But if the time comes where they do want to or need to move on from him for whatever reason, like after another year or two of lovely results, thereís probably a team that would pay for a marketable player that saves cash.

Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004



Local radio station was interviewing new Caps coach Laviolette and he said he hasnít heard anything new about the start of next season, just that it could be late December or early January.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007



I'm sure the league will start on January 1st 2021 because they've been trying to make New Years Day the hockey day for years.

Pungry
Feb 26, 2011

JUST PICK ONE. ANY ONE.

Mike_V posted:

Goddammit. He is an incredible scout and the Blues drafts are gonna get worse if they don't hire/promote the correct person

It's a good thing he's going to a team with no draft picks, then.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land






When did the league start for the 48 game lockout season?

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Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006



January 19th.

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