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Ginette Reno posted:I'm my usual mix of intrigued and horrified at the thought of what Rutherford might try to do to adjust to the latest failure. Let Schultz walk and get rid of JMFJ obviously priorities. You're going to have to replace those minutes somehow and lmao at GM JRs last few swings at that. I'd probably think about moving Hornqvist and Bjustad to free up cap space. Sheary appears to be more a 30pt player that lucked into 50 points that one time. I'm kinda on the fence with him being 28 so there's only 1 direction he goes. Murray I'm fine with showing some faith in him, but depends on the contract. You're basically looking at replacing/building a bottom pairing in the rummage bin. Vatanen, Demelo, Dillon, or some such could work. Internal solutions sort of exist except Riikola isn't trusted at all. If Joseph is 'ready' that might solve something. Even so you probably want 8'ish competent defensemen 'cause of the injuries. I don't think the Pens can afford any of the 'Big 3' this offseason (Krug, Pietra, Barrie) although Schultz clears up 5.5 just on his own. What's available at forward is even more dire. Relying on Rust to shoot 17% again probably a bad idea. Granted you land Laf and that problem sort of solves itself.
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Aug 10, 2020 17:39
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| # ¿ Apr 23, 2024 23:52 |
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Spelling Mitsake posted:Apparently Lehner is one of the bigger free agents this offseason. How did he only get a one year deal after last year? There was the question of whether Lehner or the system produced the results. Also, probably lingering questions about his mental health.
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Aug 11, 2020 18:04
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Levitate posted:also to be honest I have no idea whos advanced stats we're using these days or which ones or whatever but my impression previously is that DeAngelo has graded out pretty well in terms of outperforming his defensive deficiencies It's whichever ones you dig up to fit your narrative op. How do you think I make such insufferable posts?
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Aug 11, 2020 20:12
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Tony D: 30 points 5v5 - 19 on the power play. 4th and 9th in the league respectively and 4th overall in the league at all strengths. On a /60 rate basis remains 4th overall 5v5 and 14th on the powerplay. As for the fancies 2nd best at 5v5 in terms of corsi split, shots for, and xG. Slightly tempered by the fact he received 56% lean towards the offensive zone. That's Natural Stat data. Hockey reference has him as a career +corsi rel player and a positive xG player for the Rangers. My dumb take is he spent the playoffs and most of the regular season stapled to Marc Staal and his numbers without Staal or Smith are very good. He's *probably* not a top pairing guy, but give him soft starts and PP time and his upside massively outweigh the downside. Edit: He's like a cut rate Krug imo.
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Aug 11, 2020 20:31
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Matt Zerella posted:I'm really not. It's all right there and you're hemming and hawing saying he's not the bad at defense. On a team which desperately needs actual real defenders. I dunno I think the game requires you to score to win and trading away someone that seems capable at generating offense 5v5 at a greater rate than he gets scored on seems like a pretty good thing.
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Aug 11, 2020 21:42
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Matt Zerella posted:When I see the two defensemen on the ice get absolutely postered like Staal/Deangelo did vs Aho, yeah, im pretty single minded about defenders who can actually defend. Blaming the 48.6 corsi and +2.8 corsi rel player for the issues when played with the 42% corsi and -6 corsi rel and career -2.5% corsi rel player is really weird. Especially when you're bringing up Aho which is a 3 game sample size. But hey by all means trade away the very useful offensive defensive player that is only RFA and can be cost controlled. Surely this is a good idea.
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Aug 12, 2020 00:00
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Koopa Kid posted:I’m 100% sure it’s microstat nonsense like “cycles disrupted” and “stick checks per 60” or whatever else that doesn’t actually equal more goals for/fewer against in a season. Ceci was the only Toronto defender with negative xG 5v5 for the leafs this playoffs with a lovely 45% expected goal split. Muzzin was 2nd worst at 50/50. Everyone else was 55% expected goals for or better. So I would love to see what 'internal' metrics are used to pretend it's a good idea to resign him (while letting Barrie walk, which I understand the aggravation towards doing that). Also GMJR still has Tom Wilson living inside his pudding brain firing synapses off so  for JMFJ to retain a D spot despite being loving trash.
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Aug 12, 2020 22:02
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Leafs have 4.5 million to deal with having an iffy defensive core and not enough depth scoring. Have to think Barrie walks and gets like I dunno 6x7mil or something dumb so there goes a bunch of offense from the blueline and replacing that isn't cheap and rummaging around in the bargain bin for depth scoring can be difficult at the best of times. The cap not moving anywhere the last 2 years or so really screws the leafs over hard too since Matthews/Marner/Tavares continue to eat up a significant % of cap space. Moving Nylander does nothing but shuffle deck chairs unless you replace those 60 points up front and somehow get a cost controlled defenseman to put up 30+ points as well. Go knock in the Rangers door tbh. DeAngelo/Buch for something like Nylander and Kappenen/Johnsson with some other junk throw in might get you there. Edit: Otherwise you're trying to get something like Shattenkirk on a real cheap deal like he has in Tampa. Fast/Ennis I dunno Leivo on the cheap as well and hoping for the best. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Aug 13, 2020 |
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Aug 13, 2020 15:15
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Are you laughing at the thought of Barrie getting 7 million per?
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Aug 13, 2020 16:00
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Ah yes what the Leafs need are even less offensive threats. Surely this is a winning strategy in the modern NHL!
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Aug 13, 2020 18:54
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Aphrodite posted:It worked for St. Louis.  3rd largest playoff contributor Alex Pietrangelo certainly didn't play a significant part in that nor the 25% of total scoring by defense man.Edit: If your team has 3 goals for and 10 against 5v5 I think you need to improve both sides are that particular balance and it isn't like Toronto has a 50/50 split during the regular season in goals for and against. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Aug 13, 2020 |
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Aug 13, 2020 19:05
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Aphrodite posted:Yeah and secondary assists would make it appear Erik Karlsson has value. I mean if 11.5 mil a year for 7 more years isn't value.....
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Aug 13, 2020 19:56
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Leaving out the 5.75 per on back to back sub .900 goaltending with only 4 years to go!
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Aug 13, 2020 20:05
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He looks like the girls dad in a Hallmark movie.
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Aug 14, 2020 14:12
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sleep with the vicious posted:Calgary media is begging for a Gaudreau trade, and I can't really disagree with it. 3 years in a row he went missing in the playoffs completely Yeah the guy with 7 points 1 behind the team leaders went missing. Sure he had 1 point in 5 games 2 years ago and yea he laid an egg the year before that..... because the flames didn't make the playoffs. It isn't like he had 20 more points then the next closest that year. And if you want to go further back sure 2 points in 4 games isn't great but lol at saying it's Gaudreau's fault when you're getting .880 goaltending lmao. By all means trade your career ppg. I'm sure there's great history of that working out! I mean it's definitely Gaudreau's fault Calgary is putting Zac Rinaldo on the ice for 6 minutes a night. Great roster utilization there.
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Aug 22, 2020 18:42
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Aphrodite posted:If Gaudreau had the puck more they couldn't have scored. Rude of you to attack me like that 
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Aug 22, 2020 20:14
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Someone please have GM JR take a cognitive test tyia.
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Aug 25, 2020 18:59
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Cartoon Man posted:Reirden to Pittsburgh would be interesting. He’s a good assistant coach, just couldn’t get it done as head. Reirden was in Pittsburgh as an assistant from '10 to '14. So not really that interesting. Let go as part of the firing Disco Dan into the sun.
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Aug 31, 2020 16:21
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Flocons de Jambon posted:At the start of the offseason I didn't want the Leafs to break up the big four forwards, but I'm thinking this cash crisis might be the best opportunity the Leafs get to move Mitch Marner because his contract is very, very attractive to a few cap floor teams right now. Teams don't give up assets for a cap dump usually. And the perceived value of Marner as such is hilarious. Not sure how dumping Marner for an old UFA D man gets the Leafs any closer to a cup either.
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Sep 16, 2020 03:16
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Flocons de Jambon posted:I was thinking more like the Kessel from Boston trade. Ottawa or New Jersey have the picks to do it. The Leafs should have probably not signed JT and went full win now mode before they had stocked the cupboard better. I think they also did a lovely job with how they went about negotiating Matthews and Marner's deal. How all that went down is a bit fuzzy though so maybe they didn't gently caress up as bad there. Ottawa or NJ handing out picks like candy for Marner and his contract would be insanely dumb especially if they are trying to game the cap like you originally proposed. Finally, the only teams that 'won' the Kessel trade were Boston and Pittsburgh and even then Toronto is still retaining money on Kessel. Ott handing over one of their firsts for Marner with a bunch retained still seems fanciful as hell and again I don't see how that moves Toronto closer to a cup.
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Sep 16, 2020 03:42
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Flocons de Jambon posted:It's just interesting to me because the way Marner's contract is structured he has value in this situation that doesn't come from him being a hockey player. He's a $10 million cheque that only cheap teams can cash. That only applies for this 1 season. I guess if I squinted really hard and Ottawa was that close to insolvency I could see them throwing a 1st round pick away to save that money then retain and move Marner later to recoup their losses. If Ottawa were close to being broke I'm pretty sure we would already be somewhat aware of it and I think the NHL would be significantly more involved like they have been with Arizona. If you are talking about improving the Leafs anything involving Marner or Matthews and their contracts likely will be a losing trade imo. Nylander is the likeliest to move because his deal is significantly more palatable to a wide variety of teams. However, outside of a few specific 2 way defenseman already on very good deals it would be hard to add and prevent enough goals to replace that forward scoring for a similar cap hit.
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Sep 16, 2020 04:02
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pseudodragon posted:The year of the trade is the biggest savings since he always makes super giant bonus + minimum salary so as long as he’s traded after bonus day, it’s a big windfall for a cheap team. But his contract is cheap team friendly every year as next season his salary+bonus is 500k less than his cap hit and every year after that he’s 2.9 mill cash savings compared to his cap even with paying his bonus. ThinkTank posted:It's a hard sell because a team like Ottawa trying to hit the cap floor while paying far less than that in real salary would need to be pretty sure they could move him in a year otherwise they're stuck with a giant cheque to sign. This is the point I was getting at. It is only a guaranteed real dollar savings this year. Flocons de Jambon posted:I agree, Marner's contract wouldn't be difficult to move any other year. Uh moving the 7th largest contract by cap hit in the NHL would be difficult at the best of times and receiving equal 'value' for it is going to be quite the trick. Usually teams looking to move this player would be getting a bucket full of picks/prospects and rebuilding not flipping one of their stars and praying. Your 'ideal' trade would be Marner + whatever for someone like Dougie Ham, Werenski, and a handful of signed cost controlled exceptional defenseman while also hoping to throw in a some picks and maybe a rando player for roster/bottom 6 contributors and whatever. At the end of the day the Leafs have the exact same problem they have had for a few seasons now - Having way too much money tied up in 3 players and having to build and balance everything else around that. Which throwing Marner around to an Ottawa as a cap dump doesn't solve at all.
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Sep 16, 2020 14:19
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ThinkTank posted:Yeah and Marner would inevitably see a drop in production away from the offensive system of Toronto and asked to be the main guy. 80-90pt Marner is absolutely worth his cap hit as an outstanding complimenary piece. If he drops to 60ish points I'm not sure too many folks would be keen on taking him on. Matthews - $145k per point and 8k per minute. Marner - $162k per point and $8.5k per minute. Tavares - $183k and 9k per minute. McDavid is $128k and 9k per minute. Rantanen $225k and 11k per minute. Drai 77k and 5.5k. Panarin - $122k and 8k. Pastrnak $70k and 5k. Kuch - $111k and $7.4k. Eichel - 128k and 6.6k. I feel pretty confident in saying Marner/Matthews/Tavares are mild overpayments and that's a much bigger issue. Nylander works out to $118k and $5.6k. Marner and Tavares both missed a bit of time so they can get a little leeway there so adjusted for 1.15 ppg and it's ~135k per for Marner and $165 for Tavares. Still seems on the high end relative to the recent comparables 
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Sep 16, 2020 15:33
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pseudodragon posted:How is it only a cash savings this year? This year is obviously the biggest savings at 750k for a 10 million hit, but going forward he's at a 10.8 million cap hit, but his salary+ bonus is 10.3 next year and 8 the rest of the way. If you're a cap floor team, you still get about 7 million in cash in 2021-25. So you are back to treating Marner like a cap dump which doesn't net you the assets the Leafs will want to compete. If you are coming at it from a 3 million dollar 'savings' of cap hit vs payout which considering what the Penguins were rumored to have an 'internal cap' and moving towards some sort of austerity I could maybe see something hilarious happening. That moves you back to 'hockey trade' territory and at least in the vague realm of possibility considering both teams could use a shake up and have a history of trading with each other.
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Sep 16, 2020 16:06
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Lols all around I think. Minny building a team of some kind. gently caress if I know what. But something. Buffalol. Same for Montreal. Congrats on your not Jack Johnson jack johnson.
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Sep 17, 2020 01:03
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Pens apparently signed McCann for 2 years and near as makes no difference 6 million for 3 per. Don't know exactly what to make of him so that's fine I guess. Hope they get a decent deal done for Simon as well and they are mostly set short of whatever dumb poo poo they do in free agency and dealing with the goaltending situation.
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Sep 20, 2020 04:54
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Howard is sub Mike Smith tiered back up so I hope he goes somewhere for me to laugh.
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Sep 20, 2020 17:51
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Sure whatever. Lets see how much poo poo we can throw at the wall in the hopes of fixing this. But don't trade Jack Johnson. He's foundational. If you're ditching Hornqvist that's a non-negligible amount of points up front you're losing though.
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Sep 23, 2020 17:28
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Mike Mathewson is kinda bad, right? Yes. Not JMFJ bad, but he isn't great. Or even good. Pettersson or Marino dragged worse around though. i am the bird posted:I'd love to see what a Johnson-Matheson pairing could do. Hemmed into their own zone forever until a goal against or they get a goalie freeze. Drunk Canuck posted:Why does Rutherford love acquiring defencemen who absolutely should not be NHL defencemen? Praying that if he throws enough garbage at the wall that it works out. Detroit was happy as heck to get rid of Daley and despite a lot of questions that move worked. Same for Hagelin.
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Sep 23, 2020 17:31
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:What the gently caress does that trade fix? It doesn't really save money and now we have a hole on 3rd RW and 4 LD Austerity policy in full effect. Another reclamation project. Whatever synapses left firing away. I dunno pick one. Probably going to swing at Hoffman/Dadonov/Toffoli/Granlund/Fast who knows. Just enjoy it.
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Sep 23, 2020 17:55
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That I can't figure out which player this is applying to is maybe the funniest part to all of this.
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Sep 23, 2020 21:41
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Adding a lovely 30 year old 4th line player doesn't make this trade better at all what the gently caress.
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Sep 25, 2020 02:25
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I only hope it gets weirder 'cause at this point whatever.
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Sep 25, 2020 15:03
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:Big whoop Kinda want this to happen now.
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Sep 25, 2020 18:04
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Sounds like someone needs Jack Johnson!
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Sep 27, 2020 01:48
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JMFJ, Mathesson, and Ceci would be well quite very bad.
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Oct 1, 2020 01:29
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Ginette Reno posted:This is less promising to hear. The only thing worse than JJ playing on the left side would be JJ playing on the right. I think it's promising in the sense of knowing something has to be done with JMFJ . They have Letang, Dumo, Pettersson, and Marino. Followed by Matheson who will replace Schultz or whatever I don't know. Ruhwedel is decent enough as your 7th guy and they extended Riikola who maybe gets an extended look? No idea. I don't know why you extend him if you aren't going to play him. Whatever. So that's 7 even without JMFJ. Looking at UFAs there are some interesting depth guys that could also improve that backend...especially over JMFJ and depending how the goalie stuff works out if they move JMFJ outside chance they could *maybe* afford Barrie.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:38
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I don't see how a 33 year old that just put up an .890 fixes your goaltending problem, but sure go for it Sharks. At least they aren't looking at Holtby I guess?
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Oct 3, 2020 14:59
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That's a real good deal for Vegas and happy to see Lehner doing well. Similar to what he wanted from NYI isn't it?
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Oct 3, 2020 15:47
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| # ¿ Apr 23, 2024 23:52 |
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Lehner off the table means Murray and others become slightly more valuable so thank you VGK for getting business done early.
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Oct 3, 2020 16:00
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