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Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004



Duckman2008 posted:

2020 NHL playoff preview: Lightning vs. Islanders https://theathletic.com/2047608/202..._shared_article



ďThe Islanders have been in a different stratosphere and on average have been more than twice as good as expected. Twice. Double. Not a typo. The average Islanders skater was projected to be worth 0.99 wins based on his stats from the last three seasons, but has instead been worth 2.12 during the playoffs. That kind of jump is enormous and I would have to imagine itís unheard of.


The cutoff for an elite forward is about 2.9 wins. Mathew Barzal, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Josh Bailey and Jordan Eberle all make the cut, providing 7.2 more wins per 82 than expected so far. The cutoff for an elite defenceman is about 2.2 wins. Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Andy Greene and Nick Leddy all make the cut, providing 7.8 more wins per 82 than expected so far.

On paper, the Islanders have no truly elite players, but in the playoffs they have eight who are performing at that level. Aside from Baileyís 17 points in 16 games, none of them are exactly crushing the scoresheet to get that label, either, although Barzalís 13 points are nothing to scoff at. Itís because of how well theyíre controlling the game at five-on-five. The Islandersí top line has an expected-goals rate of about 64 percent and Barzal and Eberle have earned 70 percent of the goals. Pageau has been an animal, a pivotal addition whoís earning 60 percent of the expected goals and 77 percent of the actual goals. On defence, Pulock and Pelech are at 61 percent for expected goals with excellent defensive numbers while Leddy and Greene have had nearly a 4-to-1 ratio in their favour in terms of goals. Itís all unexpected and deserves major kudos. You often hear about players needing to elevate their games come playoff time and this is what that looks like on the most extreme level.Ē


Islanders on fire this playoffs (and the Flyers and Caps were bad).

Barry Trotz did the same thing with the Caps on our playoff run. He gets 3rd and 4th liners to play lights out when it matters most. Iíll be rooting for an epic game 7 double overtime fuckup by the lightning.

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Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004



Lol 8-2.

Gonna make the Islanderís game 7 double overtime win that much sweeter.

Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004




Iím guessing weíre not going back to the bubble next season, seems the players are getting claustrophobic. Canít blame them. Iím expecting conference games only at arenas and extended multi game (same team) series to minimize potential outbreaks. Probably a 40-60 game season starting in January.

Like what baseball is doing. The wildcard is basketball and what they choose to do.

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