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rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN
I wrote a bunch of dumb poo poo about UFAs

UFA Extravaganza!!!!!!
Top Available Forwards
1. Taylor Hall – 1 for 1. MVP. Best get of UFA this year by miles.
2. Mike Hoffman – 359pts in 493 games. 55+ 5 times. Might be a locker room issue. Drives shooting at 5v5, but negative expected values. Turns 31 in a month. I think someone gives him too much money and term then he's bought out in 3 years.
3. Evgenii Dadonov – 202pts in 280 games. Massively drives play and has pretty good expecteds. Will make less than Hoffman despite being the better player.
4. Tyler Toffoli – Drives play like crazy. Excellent expected values. Only 1 50+ point season ever and otherwise 35-45. Could be some really good value here or have an ugly contract fast.
5. Mikael Granlund – 352 in 540 games. Had a 69 point season followed by 67. 55 in the year after followed by 30 this season past. Drives play to a reasonable degree and has very positive expected values. Potentially a very useful Top 6 player with a lot depending on if you expect him to bounce back towards 50pts and not stay at 30.

Other dudes with varying value -

Anthony Duclair – Hit 40pts for the 2nd time in his career. Upped his shooting output to nearly 3 shots per game. Slightly down on corsi rel last season and slightly negative expecteds. 5 teams in 6 years. Is there really a gem of a player here or will the various forces lead to washing out.
Dominik Kahun – 37 in his first season with Chicago and was on pace to surpass that this year. A nice middle 6 pick up for most teams.
Andreas Athanasiou – 156 points in 303 games. Is there actually a useful player that adds positive impact to you team here? No idea! Probably not though.
Jesper Fast 30 point player. Doesn't really drive play and iffy expected. Maybe a depth guy somewhere. Honestly thought he was more Bryan Rust but he's closer to Athanasiou with less questions about the defensive side.
Bobby Ryan/Turris – Could they contribute in reduced rolls on 'bargain' contracts? Someone will try.

Defensemans

1. Torey Krug – 337 in 523. Drives play. Dude is going to get paid by someone.
2. Alex Pietraangelo – 450 points in 758 games. 24:30 minutes a night. Drives play and decent expected values. Turns 31 in January. Will also get paid, but how iffy the contract becomes is hard to say.
3. Tyson Barrie – 346 in 554. Not the most successful time in Toronto. Spreadsheet says he's pretty good. A lot of production from the powerplay however. Who knows with him. I think he improves the vast majority of teams unless you're paying $8 mil in which case lol.

Decent Depth Guys

Sami Vaatanen – 20+ points. 21 minutes a night. Kind of all situations guy that could slot into a 2nd pairing pretty well for a lot of teams. Like any UFA depends on $$$ and term
Kevin Shattenkirk – Great value for Tampa. Still a solid depth contributor and if a team can give him soft minutes he'll still produce.
Erik Gustafsson – I dunno put up 60 last year. Only 30 this year. If he's cheap could work for someone.
TJ Brodie/Schultz – Vet guys that can put up some points. Both drive play (JMFJ excluded for Schultz's time) and have good expected outcomes. With the flat cap really hard to say what they cost.

The Dump

Jack Johnson
Cody Ceci
Zac Rinaldo

Edit: Goalies can suck it. Now begin the speculation on what dumb bad players your team will give too much money and term to!

rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Oct 8, 2020

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rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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There are so many reclamation projects to go wrong this offseason I'm really excited to see which ones are with the Penguins!

Twin Cinema posted:

What happened to Wennberg? Last I remember, he was a promising young talent.

In '16-17 Nick Foligno, Sam Gagner, and Atkinson with Wennberg combined for an obscene amount of powerplay goals. At 5v5 Wennberg also played a ton with Saad. '17-18 Wennberg seems like he played with pretty much everyone up and down the lineup. '18-19 he played mostly with Duclair and Bjorkstrand, but his ice time cratered and last season was Wennbergs worst in terms of per 60 points at 5v5, however he played with nearly every forward in CBJ where it is really really hard to get a read on how much he's pulling people down vs people pulling him down. Just turn 26 though so in regards to reclamation projects he might be worth a solid punt. His 60pt season was insanely unsustainable powerplay points is the tl;dr on that though. His best 5v5 season had him putting up 1.66 pt/60 vs this season past where he only put up 1.

Edit: 3C somewhere for like 2 million would probably be great for a lot of teams.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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grack posted:

Jimmy Howard: May have something left as a backup.
Mike Smith: May have something left as a backup.
Aaron Dell: Potential as an okay backup.

I'm surprised to learn this season past is really the first time Jimmy 'elite' Howard has been horrific. .906/.908 his previous worst seasons. Mike Smith outside of his time in Arizona has never been particularly good/great other than his first Calgary season and way back in Tampa and see him as massively risky considering how many mishandled puck woops it's a goal against he has had. I think Dell could be a nice backup especially not playing behind EK.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Gudbranson has a cap hit of $4 million with actual salary of $3 million so it is pretty much the most Ottawa thing possible. Matt Murray has to be really excited to be reunited with him.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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That sure is a contract. Wow.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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11.5 has to be in the neighborhood for Hall right? Bread got 7x81.5 which is the easiest comparable. Do not like the Metro becoming more of a bloodbath.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Devils should go at Krug or Barrie who are younger and more likely to not have a hugely regretful deal 3 years in.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Big Leg posted:

give me blue jackets patrick laine, or give me death

Oh that would be a glorious disaster.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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The good old David Clarkson special. Nice job Bergevin.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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ThinkTank posted:

He was willing to sign a one year deal? Why not sign him to that? He's had one good season in his career, if ever there was a "show me" candidate it's him. Is Bergevin expecting a JT Miller like explosion from him?

JT Miller was at least a consistent 45-50 point player before hitting 72 this year...which the jump is reasonably in line with the increased minutes and PP time.

Edit: Miller had 4 years of 45+ seasons before Van traded for him. Anderson has one lol.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Good Soldier Svejk posted:

I wonder who JR is going to give too much money and term to this year

Ceci/Alzner

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Allegedly they were negotiating with Kahun to return but at lower than the QO offer would be.

Simmonds is well paste freshness date so not signing him would be smart... because trading for him was not smart.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Koopa Kid posted:

The Leafs have no cap space why spend more than the minimum on the ghost of Wayne Simmonds why

Yeah when I was posting lots about depth vets Simmonds is not one of them. Bobby Ryan for 1 million is a lot closer.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Holtby deal really depends if he's .915 sv% career average or his .897 this season past.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Number19 posted:

Murray is completely cooked right?

Nah multiple hot brains and a wrist injury. He's been questionable/bad in 2 of the last 3 years. How much of that is the hot brains, Jack Johnson, and his dad dying who knows. 6 million for him is insane.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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God dammit.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Evan Rod is a solid enough 4th maybe 3rd liner. He really did catch the eye in the few games he got post restart. Jankowski is also definitely a 4th liner, but for depth he doesn't seem like he gets killed and the Micah chart shows all blue on both sides of the puck. If he's cheap I'll take it.

Now get me the Stecher or Gustaffsson

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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mennoknight posted:

counterpoint he sucks poo poo

He will probably be competing to be a 4C in Pittsburgh. If he puts up anywhere near the 20-30 he's done before it is great value. If he doesn't whatever it's league min.

Edit: This now leaves the Pens with 2.6 apparently. If they can squeeze a not too lovely D guy and maybe a not too lovely goalie in I would say that today has been a great success on paper.

rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Oct 9, 2020

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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myron cope posted:

I don't think they need either of those, right? They have 7 D (although that would require starting at least one of Riikola and Ruhwedel) and then DeSmith

fake edit: https://twitter.com/Real_RobRossi/status/1314636796798668801


Makes as much sense as anything else

No neither of things things are 'needs' for sure. It's just me being greedy about being able to push Ruhwedel down the depth chart and maybe having a vague insurance policy for injuries. Same kind of applies if you can get like Aaron Dell for real cheap.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Ok so Jack Johnson is off the board. SHOW ME CODY CECI!

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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heehee posted:

think that means boston is gonna go back to OEL. If he's even still open to being traded anymore.

Barrie would be a better fit than OEL depending on ask.

I think 4 million for Schultz is super steep and while he has been stapled to JMFJ for the past few seasons he is also coming off of the horrific ankle/leg break which really seems to have hurt his mobility and his time on the powerplay recently wasn't super successful. That said there is room to bounce back and the extra time off probably helps him a lot.

In regards to the Penguins I am reasonably happy with what they have done so far. I think they have a hole in the top 6, but when do they not? Sid/Guentzel/Zucker with Geno/Rust and very likely Kapanen to start. Going to assume it is a rotating cast though of Kap/McCann/ZAR though. Could possibly see a reshuffle of Sid/Guentzel/Rust with Geno/Zucker and the previously mentioned 3. The bottom 6 looks to be in good shape. I liked Evan Rodrigues in his brief time and I think he makes a way better 3C than McCann who is more effective on the wing. Kap/Tanev make up the rest of that line. Or Jankowski maybe gets a looks at 3C/wing? I don't know a ton about him and not really seen him play. Blueger stays on the 4th line...ZAR bouncing between 3rd and 4th line maybe sees a little time on the 2nd if he is on a hot streak. Sceviour goes on the 4th line. Lot of flexibility though in the bottom 6. Capable players with some scoring upside.

The D core is a thing. Letang/Dumo. Marino/Pettersson. Mathesson/Riikola I guess. Can see maybe a mix and match going on though. As I said earlier if the Pens could fit Dell and then potentially a defensive person to push for the 6 spot or move Ruhd down the chart a bit.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Toronto improved with Brodie, but goaltending and scoring outside of their big 4 forwards is still extremely questionable.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Lol ya Simmonds is the answer.

grack posted:

You're right, they need to trade for "foundational piece" Brandon Sutter

God I would love this.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Ceci sweepstakes still a go and Vancouver looking like they have a good space for him!

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Not having to be a number one and instead playing 30 to 35 games is about perfect for Crawford. Think that is a solid job by NJ to get him in to help and mentor along with provide hopefully solid performances.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

What FA defensemen are left after pietrangelo

Flyers could use someone to replace Niskanen

Sami Vatanen probably the best fit available in UFA. Troy Stretcher could do a job on the cheap with a lowered standard of course. Unfortunately Cody Ceci is still available which would be sub-optimal in every way.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Cody Ceci sweepstakes still alive and well Vancouver

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Kuule hain nussivan posted:

Koivu to Blue Jackets on a year 1.5 million deal apparently. I didn't see much of Koivu last year, but that sounds like a pretty decent deal.

Solid value but he is old and often broken.

Edit: Hank continued to perform well above expectation last season so now that he has gone to DC I hope he implodes.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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heehee posted:

this is going to be a sad canucks season and all the rookies are going to leave because their friends are gone :(

If Buffalo has taught us anything with Eichel it is that you still have a few years yet.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Matt Zerella posted:

I think BSB or Shayna pointed out on twitter that the Rangers would have to pay more due to taxes so it would t have been as low here. Makes sense. This still stinks,I like Fast. Cherish him Carolina, dude is all heart and a Swiss Army knife.

Players pay the tax rate of the state where they play so this talking point remains wrong.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Depth scorer for a nobody and cap relief? Ok then Toronto.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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So Toronto ditched Andreas a .5 ppg player so 40pts over an 82 game season for a player with 13 points in 52 games. They swapped Kapanen, who I understand is questionable as a top 6 player, but still another .5 ppg guy for a first and replaced him with Simmonds who is 3 seasons removed from 40 and put up 9 of his 25 on the powerplay last season and 8 of 30 the year prior. Brodie is a significantly more rounded player than Barrie so I'll give credit for an improvement there. What I am getting at is for a team that has been missing depth scoring it really seems like they have downgraded big time.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Drunk Canuck posted:

Depth scoring is replaceable. You need to keep a solid core of top-end players together and add/subtract pieces around them. It's why Lethonen and Mikheyev were signed, it's why Zaitsev was tossed away with depth winger Connor Brown. As much as everyone wants to think that the 3rd and 4th line must be perfect studs, they don't matter much come the post season as long as they give up less goals than they score.

40 point players don't grow on tree lol.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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pseudodragon posted:

Yeah, depth scoring will be anywhere from iffy to fine depending on if Kerfoot can bounce back and Robertson is ready.

Simmonds and Spezza are shells of their former selves but we’re still at a 30 point pace last year which is fine for a fourth line. And they’ve been pulling random guys like Engvall, Johnsson, Brown, and Mikheyev our of their asses every year to the point where it’s probably safer to assume they’ll have some random dude no ones ever heard of chip in 25-30 points than not.

Spezza put up 7 of 25 on the powerplay. 12 of 27 the year prior on the powerplay. 11 of 26 before that. I already pointed out Simmonds also produces a large percentage of points from the powerplay. Johnsson has 12 of 67 total points from the powerplay making him a larger 5v5 contributor than both. Kap has nearly has as many shorthanded points as powerplay. Kerfoot is exactly where you would expect him considering the change in his deployment and drop in shooting percentage. The Leafs got worse. Good luck betting on nobodies.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Call Your Grandma posted:

what's your obsession with depth scoring? the leafs' top six is stacked. it means they're not paying as much for the rest of their forwards and not expecting as much from them either. the leafs are one of the top teams in scoring goals in the nhl. goals scored by bottom-six guys don't count for double. it does not matter at all. they score lots of goals. they will continue to score lots of goals. their defence is also better than it was last year, and they have legitimately good prospects that are knocking on the door right this minute in Robertson and Sandin.

like sure, maybe they get lovely bounces and injuries next season and you'll have something ready to point to for their failure, but losing a dude they drafted in the seventh round a few years ago for nothing is not going to gently caress with the team's progression.

Because while a stacked top 6 can land you 3rd the Atlantic and a first/2nd round exit it doesn't win you a cup which is what I assume the Leafs have pretentions of? Brodie goes a decent way towards shifting the balance in regards to improving the defensive side. Simmonds does not. Another year older Spezza does not. I will happily concede the point on Johnsson though, I hadn't realized he played with Matthews so much. Still leaves some larger holes in the top 6 as well though regarding depth on the wing no?

Edit: to dredge up old Pens look at Fehr and Cullen's fancies. Fehr put up 10ish points and got cratered in regards to corsi. His expected values though are neutral however. That is what a super useful depth defensive forward looks like. Cullen is an even more impressive example where he put up 30 points with 12 minutes a night and a 65% D zone start. Positive xG too. Having 4th liners that do not give away goals like kittens is hugely important for success in both the regular and postseason.

rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Oct 11, 2020

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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So the Leafs ended up a 50/50 split team at 5v5 after being a 54% GF team the 2 years prior. On the front end this is mostly John Tavares/Marner/Kapanen being -9, -3, and -6 in regards to goals 5v5. Frederik Gaughtier, Trevor Moore, Nic Petan, Kyle Cliffor, and Dennis Malgin also had negative 5v5 outcomes. Auston Matthews gets a huge mention for being +19 in regards to goals scored at 5v5 and basically carried the team in that regard. Nylander was only +2. On the backend you have Lijegren and Sandin with -5 and -6 respectively. Everyone else except Dermontt has *nearly* 50/50 splits with Travis putting up +8 goals for 5v5. TJ Brodie was a +5 last year and +18 the year before that. Potential for a big step there. Wayne Simmonds is a net -32 over his career 5v5 and the trend is insanely obvious when you sort by season. Being a +1 or 0 up until 2010-2011 where he's -2 followed by seasons of -8, -11, -14, -12, and -14. Kapanen is a career -4 and Johnsson +19.

To get off the Leafs I'll go into the 2 guys the Pens added. Jankoswi is a career -25 goals for at 5v5. However, his expected values are all ~50-52%. Going off of Natural Stats spreadsheets he's pretty even in regards to scoring chance creations, but he is a net positive high danger creator. So if he creates as much if not slightly more than the opposition why is he such a minus in regards to 'real' outcomes. Mostly he doesn't appear to be a very good finisher. Creating 50/50 High Dangers but only seeing a 40/60 split in them being scored. I think there is some upside to this player. Most of the same applies to Evan Rodrigues who is a -21 career player. Rodrigues gets a bit more leeway from me because of his zone deployments however.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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With Hall off the board that still leaves Granlund, Hoffman, Dadonov, and Toffoli available to fill top 6 holes for someone. Along with useful players such as Kahun, Simon, and maybe Duclair to fit into middle 6 roles....and whatever is left of Alex Galchenyuk's career. Defensively Pietra is likely heading to Vegas so Vatanen is probably best available after that with Ceci lurching and a very cooked Hamonic available as well. Gustafsson is also still around for all of your bottom pairing 2nd powerplay needs.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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bewbies posted:

I think that Hall contract is actually kind of awesome. it gives him complete control over where he goes this season and he will probably have a good time in Buffalo as long as he's there. he doesn't have a wife or kids or anything so if his first priority is winning a cup it makes a lot of sense to structure a deal that gives you the most control possible over where you play.

The real danger there is if he knocks up an overweight buffaloian woman and then is forced to settle in the area long term

Your take sucks and you should probably pull back on assumed sexual proclivities of the player which also ignores the whole 'we're in a pandemic that makes your lungs swiss cheese and might cause lasting heart and brain damage'.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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bewbies posted:

quite right, i was underestimating the brainpower of the hangman game guy

Ah yes so because dumb meat head jock only know sex. Seems quite presumptuous op.

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rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Erik Karlsson being top 30 is a massive lmfao.

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