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Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



My body is ready for Kyle Dubas to sign Josh Leivo and only Josh Leivo on the first day of FA

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Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I’ve already had to watch Marleau, a player I really liked, plod around the ice ineffectively past his best before date in a Leafs jersey, please don’t ruin Simmonds for me too

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



ugh why ugh

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



The Leafs have no cap space why spend more than the minimum on the ghost of Wayne Simmonds why

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Hand Knit posted:

This seems entirely unobjectionable.

I AM OBJECTING

I think he’s probably washed and he makes more than the amount that can be fully buried on a team that’s already squeezed for cap

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Flocons de Jambon posted:

Think the Leafs put Johnsson on waivers? If you count his bonus next year he's owed more over the next 12 months than Tyler Johnson.

I don’t know about waivers but if they want to sign anybody else they sure as hell have to make that contract disappear somehow

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Hand Knit posted:

He's going to play 12 minutes a night and put up 25 points with neutral possession. He's going to be forgotten about a couple weeks into the season.

I’d be happy if he put up 25 points, but I think that’s not a sure thing

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



rex rabidorum vires posted:

Yeah when I was posting lots about depth vets Simmonds is not one of them. Bobby Ryan for 1 million is a lot closer.

Yeah there was no doubt in my mind that when Dubas said he wanted the bottom 6 to be tougher to play against he meant he was going to sign guys who suck instead of making shrewd bargain signings

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



That is

a lot of money on a goalie. But it’s not like the Sens are hurting for space.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



(e: disregard) now give me Weegar or give me unceasing years of mediocrity

Koopa Kid fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Oct 9, 2020

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Misanthrope posted:

Someone signed Brodie?

Turns out nah, I was seeing talk about how the Leafs weren’t gonna get him and I assumed, my bad.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Misanthrope posted:

I would not at all be surprised if TJ signed with the Leafs.

Waaaay better defensively than Barrie, great transition game, absolute muffin of a shot.

The assumption among Leafs fans is that he’s gonna cost too much, it seems. Hard to argue unless they pull off some salary dump trades, but it seems like everyone’s trying to lose salary.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



myron cope posted:

I don't know who Mark Jankowski is but for $700k who cares

Same theory for Rodrigues who was fine but didn't they just trade him? Wasnt he in the Kapanen deal?

Leafs didn’t want to qualify him at $2M and if he’s gonna have to take league minimum he might as well do it in a place he already lives with presumably lower income tax

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007




Holy gently caress I thought this would be impossible

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Twin Cinema posted:

I am slightly nervous about being excited for this Brodie signing since the Barrie one didn't work out well. But, I have faith that it will, because he's more of what the Leafs need. Even if Brodie is mediocre, he's a huge upgrade over Ceci playing on Rielly's other side.

Yeah I think the important thing is fit. Barrie had all the same strengths and weaknesses of the rest of the lineup and there was nobody to pair him with that could really help him out.

Seems more likely that Brodie can form a complementary pairing. He’s been relatively durable so I’m not as concerned about his age, with any luck by the time he slows down the cap will be less restrictive.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



eXXon posted:

This is basically the same team that got shut out by Columbus twice, only their best right-shooting D is now Justin Holl.

The Leafs getting shut out in game 5 is the same thing as the Leafs losing to a replacement goalie, it’s an amusing anecdote but it doesn’t actually mean anything to their roster construction. The Leafs were 2nd in goals for last season (not counting the phantom goals for shootout wins).

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



If Barrie’s gonna run Edmonton’s PP1 he’ll put up points, but you have to believe he’ll regret leaving money on the table.

Apparently Barrie just loves playing for teams with high-powered stars who give a lot up defensively with little depth to speak of.

Here’s a Micah chart for everyone to hate

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1314977497533030403?s=20

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I would much, much rather have Stetcher on the Leafs for $1.7M than Holl at $2M, really feels like the Leafs are missing opportunities in FA.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Johnsson should have been traded last year, he was never going to shoot 15% again and he had Rookie Shine on him. They could have used the space to not give up a first getting rid of Marleau.

Sucks to lose him for nothing now, but it’s a flat cap world and the Leafs were over it, so :shrug:

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Dubas really going all-in on copying Tampa Bay’s moves despite having a significantly worse roster to start with I see

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Seems kinda cruel to demand Spezza take league minimum and then immediately give bigger deals to Simmonds and Bogo to be almost certainly worse

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Mike_V posted:

isn't zadorov not very good?

You are correct

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



For real though, has anyone checked to make sure Dubas knows it isn’t 2016

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Looks like Vesey’s shot rate dipped from about 1.7 to 1.45 last year which is... not ideal. He also played his lowest TOI since his rookie year, gotta wonder if teammates/coaching were a factor in the dip.

He’s much more likely to pot 15 than *checks notes* Joey Anderson and that salary can be buried if it doesn’t work out, so no harm. I worry that signing Kerfoot’s old college linemate smacks of trying to be too cute though.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Flocons de Jambon posted:

I wonder if the Leafs leave Nick Robertson off the roster for long term cap considerations. Let that entry level deal slide a year even if they think he can handle the NHL right now.

If Robertson can handle the NHL he’s probably their 6-7th best forward. I don’t think saving some cap in 23-24 is going to be a consideration.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



The issue with the logic of “Hall can just be traded to a playoff team” is that the teams he’d want to go to aren’t going to have enough space to take him on. He’s going to end up back on another wildcard tweener, whether it’s a trade partner or Buffalo themselves.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



i am the bird posted:

I never quite understood this but isn't there some kind of cap fuckery that happens as the season goes on? Teams always find a way to add salary and I thought it was because contracts have a diminishing impact on the cap further into the year.

Yeah cap space increases as time goes on, cap is counted every day so if you’ve accrued x amount of space over 2/3 of the season you can add a bigger contract over the last 1/3.

But even pro rated $8M is a lot and most teams will be close to capped out this year especially.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



pseudodragon posted:

If the Sabres are in sell mode, they won’t be adding anyone else so there’s no harm in them retaining half as well so the other team only needs to scrounge up a prorated $4 million.

That’s fair, still feels like a losing gamble on his part though. There’s a reason he was traded to Phoenix last year.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Hooray Jumbo :toot:

Kerfoot’s fine, he’s just not a bargain on a team that desperately needs players who are underpaid. There’s no way the Leafs move him after signing Vesey IMO. The Leafs have an abundance of 4th line centres now but that’s not really an issue.

It is funny how Marleau and Thornton are alternating stops on this team. I’m just glad Joe won’t cost $6M for multiple seasons.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



The nicest thing I can say about Cody Ceci is that if he plays low minutes in a sheltered role you probably won’t notice him that much.

The Leafs played him as a consistent top 4 defender, of course.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Every once in a while Ceci makes a play with stunning competence that makes you go “huh” in one of those reminders that even bad NHLers are athletically gifted with years of training and experience.

The rest of the time you hope he goes glass and out so at least the puck gets turned over as far away from him as possible.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007




So I did my best to follow along, and I think the gist of it is that Micah's trying to defend his isolated impact model after having lots of (presumably Pens and Leafs fans) point out that Ceci's charts look very different from his Sens years to his Leafs year. Which kind of defeats the purpose of those charts.

So basically Ceci's tenure in Ottawa is characterized by some positive offensive seasons and bad to incredibly awful defensive numbers. With the Leafs Ceci's numbers flip, all of a sudden he has very negative offensive impact but the defensive zone is now a positive.

Micah breaks this down as: Ceci absolutely sucks with the puck on his stick, but has an ok shot (historically anyway lol) and generally looks ok off the puck. On Ottawa he had a rough cast of linemates, on Toronto he played mostly with Morgan Rielly. He explains the discrepancy as the result of the Leafs regroup system allowing Rielly to basically always be the guy making plays, taking away Ceci's biggest weakness and allowing him to only do what he does best which is skate around and be big. In Ottawa Ceci had to try to create offense, and while he got some the result was a lot of turnovers and getting caved.

So the argument is that Ceci as a player didn't change, but the coaching staff changed his on-ice role in such a way that totally flip his impact. Micah's model is faithfully showing the results of that change in role, so there's nothing wrong with it.

I take issue with that conclusion, because if the point of player isolation charts is to tell us who somebody is outside of linemates this fails because it's Ceci's linemate that allowed for his change in role and the difference in numbers. I know there's nothing his model can really do about that, but it validates my suspicion that isolation models don't actually do what people think they do, especially with defensemen.

Also his defensive impact being positive on the Leafs in the first place is questionable IMO, because even though overall threat is down the threat is still above average on his side, particularly near the crease, but that's another discussion.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



El Gallinero Gros posted:

I feel like Burke would have gotten hosed up

I wouldn’t underestimate the sheer mass and rage of an old alcoholic executive

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Kyle Dubas continuing his career trend of slightly overpaying RFAs, but at two years and avoiding the messiness of arbitration I’m good with it. Big squeeze on Dermott now though.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I don’t know if “take your qualifying offer or we trade you” is really collusion or just stating plain facts.

I like Dermott but he hasn’t really adjusted to the speed of the NHL well enough to use his tools effectively. Here’s hoping he kills it and forces a good deal next year.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



https://twitter.com/archaicbro/status/1320732438516002816?s=20

Nathan Mackinnon showing Landeskog some love. Also I guess we're in the era where every sports star is also a twitch streamer

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Aphrodite posted:

Toronto.


Edit: Sorry, I misread.

lol

So are the Stars planning on playing in a dark room lit with black lights? Because I’m 100% sure those jerseys will look even more terrible in actual arena settings.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Yeah getting rid of checking in junior is fine but saying it’s because of COVID is stupid

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Didn't McDavid also try to force his team to practice on a union-mandated day off his first year as captain? As some sort of performative 'players only meeting' type gesture because they were bad?

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Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Not scoring more than a goalie you played 3 more games than is truly impressive, after 49 games I’d expect a player to luck into a couple more assists while like... falling down or looking the other direction Clouseau-style

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