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Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.


Plunk down your best guesses as to how election night will go. Closest person wins absolutely nothing because the store is down! Hooray

Go here for the map

I'll go first



that's right blue NC and Georgia, fight me

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pancake rabbit
Feb 21, 2011







it's either gonna be this or biden's gonna get >400 EVs

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012




Last week I decided to make a map where I go "okay, any state that Biden has less than 80% chance of winning on 538 goes to Trump" and here's the result if anyone's curious



I mostly did this as a dumb little guessing game exercise based entirely on an arbitrary threshold, especially because I know probability is useless bullshit in this scenario and I was too lazy go over polling averages state-by-state.

This isn't the map I actually think will happen but honestly I have absolutely no clue what will actually happen so trying to make my own map is pointless. My only actual opinion is that despite all the data, blue Wisconsin feels wrong on a gut level as someone who lives here, but I really can't point to anything (anecdote or data) to back that up.

Harrow has issued a correction as of 19:15 on Oct 19, 2020

BeefThief
Aug 8, 2007





here's mine:



e: thought about leaving PA as undecided because they will never finish counting the votes there but whatever

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008





Peanut President has issued a correction as of 19:53 on Oct 19, 2020

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!



hello

Finicums Wake
Mar 13, 2017



i think in the end biden is going to win the popular vote convincingly and more narrowly win the EC. but, because of delays counting mail ins, we might see republicans try and steal the election

pancake rabbit
Feb 21, 2011








Sojenus
Dec 28, 2008





Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008





Jeb!

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!





JEB!



And what the hell, I'll throw in for an actual prediction and I'll go all in and say it's a Biden blowout with BLUE TEXAS

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.



turp

SpiderHyphenMan
Mar 31, 2010

YOUR MORTAL MODERATORS HAVE NO POWER OVER THIS POSTER!



Playing conservative with this.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.


SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Playing conservative with this.



I honestly don't see any world where biden loses Florida if he gets nc and Arizona but I'm also a goddamn idiot so

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!



SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Playing conservative with this.



Almost went with this exact map except ME-2 is red.

Chokes McGee posted:

I honestly don't see any world where biden loses Florida if he gets nc and Arizona but I'm also a goddamn idiot so

Florida is full of fuckery and shenanigans, especially given who's in power. Whereas the NC power struggle has been swaying towards Dems and they're fed up enough with the state GOP they feel likely to swing Blue. Cunningham having a big lead in the Senate race could carry it.

SpiderHyphenMan
Mar 31, 2010

YOUR MORTAL MODERATORS HAVE NO POWER OVER THIS POSTER!



Chokes McGee posted:

I honestly don't see any world where biden loses Florida if he gets nc and Arizona but I'm also a goddamn idiot so

the world where it's outright stolen.

SpiderHyphenMan
Mar 31, 2010

YOUR MORTAL MODERATORS HAVE NO POWER OVER THIS POSTER!



honestly if I were deciding based on polls alone I would have said "gently caress it" and gone with blue texas

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.


SpiderHyphenMan posted:

the world where it's outright stolen.

one man,

Mokelumne Trekka
Nov 22, 2015

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?



The deeper I dive the more it seems like 538 is overly generous to Biden in predictions. For example, in Florida, registered Republican voters have increased their edge on Democrats since 2016.

This is my final answer:

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008






Pitcher Witcher
Jan 13, 2020



I don't know poo poo. But it looks bad for Biden!


Egg Moron
Jul 21, 2003

the dreams of the delighting void



Gonna be tight but Trump

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001


for your consideration, may I please present: the Reverse Reagan.

Carmant
Nov 23, 2015


Treadmill? What's that? Is that some kind of cake?




Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.


Egg Moron posted:

Gonna be tight but Trump



that's what she said

Lansdowne
Dec 28, 2008





boring map

pancake rabbit
Feb 21, 2011







Mokelumne Trekka posted:

The deeper I dive the more it seems like 538 is overly generous to Biden in predictions. For example, in Florida, registered Republican voters have increased their edge on Democrats since 2016.

This is my final answer:



this one's fun

change NE-2 to blue

and change PA to whatever color represents being engulfed in a clusterfuck of legal challenges around the counting shenanigans that are already happening, that eventually makes its way to scotus where ACB is the deciding vote that denies biden a 270-268 win

that's the one that ends america lol

Eifert Posting
Mar 31, 2007

Atkins Diet


Grimey Drawer

https://images.app.goo.gl/fpfA4UByvPb8qG6c8

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004

MAGA FAN #1


Scranton Joe!

Lansdowne
Dec 28, 2008



I was considering making this thread the other day when maps were filling up the succ zone, so I started putting together some things to track predictions while watching tv.

I'll update this post from time to time with everything from this thread I can easily include (sorry, leaving out maps with tossups/third parties, can't be assed)

Chokes McGee: Biden wins EC with 350 (gains: AZ +11, FL +29, GA +16, ME2 +1, MI +16, NC +15, PA +20, WI +10) (losses: -0)
pancake rabbit: Biden wins EC with 295 (gains: AZ +11, MI +16, NE2 +1, NC +15, PA +20) (losses: -0)
Harrow: Biden wins EC with 278 (gains: MI +16, PA +20, WI +10) (losses: -0)
BeefThief: Biden wins EC with 319 (gains: AZ +11, FL +29, MI +16, NE2 +1, PA +20, WI +10) (losses: -0)
Peanut President: Trump wins EC with 486 (gains: CA +55, CO +9, CT +7, DE +3, IL +20, ME +2, ME1 +1, MA +11, NV +6, NH +4, NJ +14, NM +5, NY +29, OR +7, VT +3, VA +13, WA +12) (losses: GA -16, WV -5)
TrixRabbi: Biden wins EC with 412 (gains: AZ +11, FL +29, GA +16, IA +6, MI +16, NE2 +1, NC +15, OH +18, PA +20, TX +38, WI +10) (losses: -0)
SpiderHyphenMan: Biden wins EC with 306 (gains: AZ +11, ME2 +1, MI +16, NE2 +1, NC +15, PA +20, WI +10) (losses: -0)
Mokelumne Trekka: Trump wins EC with 289 (gains: +0) (losses: ME2 -1, MI -16)
Pitcher Witcher: Trump wins EC with 303 (gains: NM +5, VA +13) (losses: ME2 -1, PA -20)
Egg Moron: Trump wins EC with 270 (gains: +0) (losses: ME2 -1, NC -15, PA -20)
Dreylad: Biden wins EC with 528 (gains: AL +9, AK +3, AZ +11, AR +6, FL +29, GA +16, ID +4, IN +11, IA +6, KS +6, KY +8, LA +8, ME2 +1, MI +16, MS +6, MO +10, MT +3, NE +2, NE1 +1, NE2 +1, NE3 +1, NC +15, ND +3, OH +18, OK +7, PA +20, SC +9, SD +3, TN +11, TX +38, UT +6, WV +5, WI +10, WY +3) (losses: MN -10)
Carmant: Trump wins EC with 274 (gains: NV +6) (losses: AZ -11, ME2 -1, MI -16, WI -10)
Lansdowne: Biden wins EC with 278 (gains: MI +16, PA +20, WI +10) (losses: -0)
Judakel: Trump wins EC with 270 (gains: +0) (losses: NE2 -1, NC -15, PA -20)

Lansdowne has issued a correction as of 02:18 on Oct 20, 2020

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004

MAGA FAN #1


Egg Moron posted:

Gonna be tight but Trump



holy poo poo we're map bros

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010





Gringostar
Nov 12, 2016

The echos in my eyes
Of all they used to see
Burning down the world
Ashes and debris
And all that's left of you
And all that's left of me
All have washed away
Non-entity







Morbid Hound

biden is outed as a pedo (sick) guy at the last debate

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.



why did you post a map of phlan

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008




Toilet Rascal

Frumply
Dec 7, 2004










shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005



ZenMasterBullshit
Nov 2, 2011

Ziggy Hero!
Ziggy! Save! Everyone!



Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.



there's no goddamn world where trump gets athens but not arcadia

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ZenMasterBullshit
Nov 2, 2011

Ziggy Hero!
Ziggy! Save! Everyone!



Chokes McGee posted:

there's no goddamn world where trump gets athens but not arcadia

History shows Arcadia follows sparta.


Athens is a coin flip but I went red for it cause they basically just ape Lesbos culturally so...

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