Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

BeefThief
Aug 8, 2007


really burns my butt that this is a completely realistic scenario

fermun
Nov 4, 2009

mine is a map where people vote based on tropical storms/hurricanes that have hit a state in the historical record. if you're in a state that has been hit by over 50 tropical storms/hurricanes, you'll vote trump, if some but less than 50 then you vote biden, and if you're in a state that has never been hit by a tropical storm/hurricane, you will vote for gloria la riva.

Alobar
Jun 21, 2011

Are you proud of me?

Are you proud of what I do?

I'll try to be a better man than the one that you knew.


going with my gut

Lyndon LaRouche
Sep 5, 2006

by Azathoth


I took 538's most recent state polling averages and just flat out gave trump a 5 point boost in literally every state to account for extreme chud enthusiasm and general election fuckery, and this is what I got.

PA/MI/WI/MN gonna once again give the libs loving nightmares.

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

Alobar posted:



going with my gut

more like your butt lmao

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:
Last election, I predicted the final result with amazing confidence:



This year however, it's really more of a toss up:



Without the Clinton Coronation factor, voter enthusiasm for Trump has dropped, reducing his chance of winning by a whopping 45 percentage points.

Alobar
Jun 21, 2011

Are you proud of me?

Are you proud of what I do?

I'll try to be a better man than the one that you knew.
you might be forgetting the "we're completely hosed" factor

it's more like a tossed salad, imo

biden was totally coronated, almost no one really knows how hosed up that crazy, creepy old racist is, they just blindly voted for him and bernie sanders ran a failure of a campaign

most people who are left wing are either sitting this one out or voting third party



you know, to be real about it, i'm not entirely sure about maine, that could really go either way, but i'm thinking trump honestly

Finicums Wake
Mar 13, 2017
Probation
Can't post for 8 years!
seems like pennsylvania is important

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Alobar posted:

you might be forgetting the "we're completely hosed" factor

it's more like a tossed salad, imo

biden was totally coronated, almost no one really knows how hosed up that crazy, creepy old racist is, they just blindly voted for him and bernie sanders ran a failure of a campaign

most people who are left wing are either sitting this one out or voting third party



you know, to be real about it, i'm not entirely sure about maine, that could really go either way, but i'm thinking trump honestly

lmao you have new mexico and virginia going for trump

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!

Alobar posted:

most people who are left wing are either sitting this one out or voting third party

its wild how much this line of thinking is orthodox here and I don’t know where you’re getting this from but I do sometimes get that sense that people here are confusing a sample size of CSPAM for the broader electorate. I know very very few people who consider themselves leftists who are sitting out the election and most of the ones who are live in safe blue states. the angle I see way more is that “yes Biden sucks but Trump is way worse so we need to vote.”

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012


I don't particularly want that map to be viewed as my actual prediction but on the other hand I don't really have an actual prediction so eh, good enough

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

lmao you have new mexico and virginia going for trump

Even my unbelievably doom-addled brain can't see red NM or VA happening

dex_sda
Oct 11, 2012


SpiderHyphenMan posted:

lmao you have new mexico and virginia going for trump

well now you've gone and done it, with your track record it's guaranteed to happen

dex_sda
Oct 11, 2012


i'm feelin this one

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

dex_sda posted:

well now you've gone and done it, with your track record it's guaranteed to happen

everyone in cspam is wrong about elections regardless of whether they think biden or trump will win because it'll be Jeb!

dex_sda
Oct 11, 2012


Chokes McGee posted:

everyone in cspam is wrong about elections regardless of whether they think biden or trump will win because it'll be Jeb!

its true

dex_sda
Oct 11, 2012


iwonder if there are going to be faithless electors this goround

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!

I'm curious about y'all who think Biden's gonna win but still lose Wisconsin this time around. I'd put Pennsylvania at more risk tbh.

dex_sda
Oct 11, 2012


TrixRabbi posted:

I'm curious about y'all who think Biden's gonna win but still lose Wisconsin this time around. I'd put Pennsylvania at more risk tbh.

For me it's the strength with which openerup happened in wi

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

TrixRabbi posted:

I'm curious about y'all who think Biden's gonna win but still lose Wisconsin this time around. I'd put Pennsylvania at more risk tbh.

Honestly I don't know. I've lived in Wisconsin for over 6 years now and I think my brain is just wired to think of this as A Chud State, even though we voted out Scott Walker. The 2016 results did my brain in something fierce, I think. It's hard for me to think of Wisconsin going blue in a presidential election after that. It doesn't help that everywhere you go in this state you see gigantic Trump signs along the highways. It definitely gives the "everywhere outside of Madison and Milwaukee is Trump Country" feeling.

You're probably right that PA is significantly more likely to go red than WI this time. Wisconsin went red by a very slim margin in 2016 so it's not hard to see a different candidate turning it around.

Pepperoneedy
Apr 27, 2007

Rockin' it



Let's do it

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

Egg Moron posted:

Gonna be tight but Trump



This one, but we don't get final results for a week.

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!

Gonna be a rough, close Trump victory y'all

Old James
Nov 20, 2003

Wait a sec. I don't know an Old James!

Toph Bei Fong
Feb 29, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 16 hours!

pancake rabbit
Feb 21, 2011





this is the most likely trold victory scenario imo

30 TO 50 FERAL HOG
Mar 2, 2005



SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


TrixRabbi posted:

its wild how much this line of thinking is orthodox here and I don’t know where you’re getting this from but I do sometimes get that sense that people here are confusing a sample size of CSPAM for the broader electorate. I know very very few people who consider themselves leftists who are sitting out the election and most of the ones who are live in safe blue states. the angle I see way more is that “yes Biden sucks but Trump is way worse so we need to vote.”

the only people I've met who, like me, are refusing to vote for Biden or Trump, are on twitter or cspam

I think cspam really underestimates how many "normies" are extremely sick of Trump and want him to go away no matter what

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!

SKULL.GIF posted:

the only people I've met who, like me, are refusing to vote for Biden or Trump, are on twitter or cspam

I think cspam really underestimates how many "normies" are extremely sick of Trump and want him to go away no matter what

100%

People want off the loving ride. Biden represents normalcy. We misread this as an appetite for broad left-wing support, when really it's just that most people want things to go back to normal. You can't go home again, but Biden is the off ramp and this is why you're seeing such massive support from groups like seniors and other groups who are appalled by Trump's decorum, have been hosed over by the COVID response and generally just can't take the constant headache.

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

TrixRabbi posted:

100%

People want off the loving ride. Biden represents normalcy. We misread this as an appetite for broad left-wing support, when really it's just that most people want things to go back to normal. You can't go home again, but Biden is the off ramp and this is why you're seeing such massive support from groups like seniors and other groups who are appalled by Trump's decorum, have been hosed over by the COVID response and generally just can't take the constant headache.

the massive instability and incompetence of the trump administration undermines pretty much everything but jeff bezos and scams, i've seen big support for biden from both labor and management just to get fully-staffed federal agencies and a stabilized regulatory and subsidy environment back bc so much of what people do in the US relies on the federal government existing and performing certain functions

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008



dex_sda posted:

iwonder if there are going to be faithless electors this goround

didn't the supreme court make faithless electors illegal

Old James
Nov 20, 2003

Wait a sec. I don't know an Old James!

Peanut President posted:

didn't the supreme court make faithless electors illegal

They said, if the state has a law forbidding them from being faithless then they must obey that law.

So electors in states that don't have such a law can do what they want.

TrixRabbi
Aug 20, 2010

Time for a little robot chauvinism!

Also, believe it or not, most people genuinely like Joe Biden and think he's trustworthy and good.

I don't. But most people do.

PenguinKnight
Apr 6, 2009

piiiiiiiss

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Old James posted:

They said, if the state has a law forbidding them from being faithless then they must obey that law.

So electors in states that don't have such a law can do what they want.

Also some of the states that do have laws are just things like $500 fines

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

tup

One More Fat Nerd
Apr 13, 2007

Mama’s Lil’ Louie

Nap Ghost
My most likely guess is the 2016 map with biden winning michigan and wisconsin but losing NC/AZ/FL/GA/TX/PA by tiny margins, leaving Biden with a 51-45 6 point popular vote win and Trump with 279 electoral college votes.

This is basically just assuming Trump picks up about 3 points from his RCP averages in the next 2 weeks.

That said, i wouldnt be surprised by anything between "exactly 2016 again", and "Blue Texas".

It'll be hilarious if the pollsters are so scared of another 2016 that they tilted their models hard towards Trump and Biden overperforms by 6 points like Obama did in 2012, and by hilarious i mean "people will literally die".

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

One More Fat Nerd posted:

My most likely guess is the 2016 map with biden winning michigan and wisconsin but losing NC/AZ/FL/GA/TX/PA by tiny margins, leaving Biden with a 51-45 6 point popular vote win and Trump with 279 electoral college votes.

This is basically just assuming Trump picks up about 3 points from his RCP averages in the next 2 weeks.

This is one of the outcomes that feels really likely to me. People are acting like Biden's got these huge leads in swing states but he really doesn't. Looking at swing states that Trump won in 2016, even when Biden's ahead, it's not by a ton and easily within the margin of error. We know how "in the lead but within the margin of error" turned out in 2016. And all it would take is Trump picking up a couple points in a few of those to almost entirely erase Biden's lead, and that is very, very possible.

Of course the big difference might be that Democratic voters are more motivated to actually bother voting this time, but I really just don't know.

Durf
Aug 16, 2017





at which point the election must be decided by gladiatorial combat

my money's on the drugs animating Trump's bloated carcass

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Mokelumne Trekka
Nov 22, 2015

Soon.

It's crazy how in 2012 polls would show Obama up just 1-2 points then he pulled off a bigger win than expected. now in 2020 Biden is up like 2-4 and we have to to assume he'll vastly underperform and Trump will do better

like Nate Silver has Ohio at 50/50 odds, which to me just means Trump will mostly certainly win that state

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply