POST YR MAPS, COWARDS

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Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Scranton Joe!

# ¿ Oct 20, 2020 03:09

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# ¿ Apr 16, 2024 12:35

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Egg Moron posted:

Gonna be tight but Trump

holy poo poo we're map bros

# ¿ Oct 20, 2020 03:17

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

# ¿ Oct 29, 2020 00:00

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Chamale posted:

Here's my map:

Roberts, joined by Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett.

Breyer, Sotomayor, Kagan dissenting.

# ¿ Oct 29, 2020 06:11

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

CommanderApaul posted:

I'm going to be watching FL and NC. They both count relatively quickly, and pre-count absentee ballots. Unless things are extremely close, they'll get projected night of, and if they're projected for Biden, we can go to bed early and hope to not wake up in an apocalyptic hellscape on Wednesday. Trump's path without either of them is really narrow, and without both of them is almost non-existant.

The reporting on voter registration and under-30 early vote turnout in Texas is also interesting.. If polling firm's turnout models are based on 2016 turnout, we could have a polling error in Biden's favor instead of Trump's and that could make things fun.

Florida will not be going to Joe Biden. Democrats have had their lead cut to just 200k in early + mail. It just isn't happening. Black turnout and youth turnout are down in NC from 2016.

# ¿ Oct 31, 2020 21:42

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Brogeoisie posted:

Couple bad math assumptions in this:

1) Biden has been dominating with independents in polls everywhere (like +10). This is worth like 200k votes alone in Florida early numbers.
2) % of Republicans polled to flip to Biden vs. Democrats flipping to Trump is also net positive to Biden. Much smaller.

So this is basically a "Biden still has a sizeable lead" comment in Florida and will most certainly do better than Clinton where Trump only won by +100k votes.

No way Biden wins independents. He is a career politician and a centrist at that. There is very appeal there.

Republicans aren't going to be voting for Joe Biden. That is a lie he believes.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2020 10:17

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

cheetah7071 posted:

if it's a lie, it's a lie respondents are telling pollsters, not a lie biden is telling himself

Both are true.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2020 05:00

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Azathoth posted:

yeah, i can understand people saying "lol polls are meaningless", but not because there's some mass of shy trump voters who the pollsters just can't reach for some reason

dems won the popular vote in 2018 by 8.6 points, polling had them winning by 10.2 going in. biden is currently polling up 7.8 now. trump needs to get within 3 to have a shot at an EC victory, and probably closer to 2 points like he won by in 2016. twice in history polls have been off by more than 5 points (not counting Dewey Defeats Truman):

1996 had Dole beating his polls by 5 points on his way to still losing in a humiliating fashion

1980 had Reagan narrowly winning going into the election then beating Mondale in an absolute laugher, beating his polls by 7-8 points.

I don't think it's impossible for Trump to win, but the idea that it's going to come from a massive voter block completely missed by the polls is dumb as hell

Let's wait and see. 2 days. It won't be massive. It will be enough.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2020 05:01

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# ¿ Apr 16, 2024 12:35

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Azathoth posted:

Yeah, Biden at exactly 270 is basically an open invitation for Trump to use the courts to flip it under a pretext I can't even imagine now.

dont tease me. i want chaos.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2020 21:40

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