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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

facialimpediment posted:

for what it's worth, it's basically a coronation:


Has Obama done so yet?

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Kith posted:

frankly i'm just happy that there's not going to be any more BIDEN OLD coverage anymore

Oh, they'll probably do a bit more to celebrate.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Cugel the Clever posted:

There's been an insistence from some quarters that this has all been a manufactured putsch by party elites. My guess is they're holding back to avoid being seen as too eager to be directing the path forward, giving Joe some grace and recognition that he's still president and the ultimate decision maker.

I get we've all been conditioned to assume the worst and get upset about it by a couple decades of social media poisoning, but it doesn't hurt to withhold judgement until there's some actual action taken one way or another.

I dunno, I feel like not endorsing Kamala comes up as more like that for me. Whatever else, she was ultimately picked by Joe Biden.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

facialimpediment posted:

There's arguably a benefit to slow-trickling endorsements over a week, each saying why Kamala rules. I generally vote gently caress it and roll them all out. gently caress it, even have Manchin declare like he's making mouth noises about doing, and him getting 0 endorsements.

I am skeptical that people care much about endorsements on such a high profile race, and I feel like giving the media a "primary" to cover would be highly counterproductive... though I may be overestimating how ready Kamala may be for campaigning as the candidate ASAP.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

CBJSprague24 posted:

What happens then? It can't be possible for him to appear on the ballot with two different VPs, can it?

Why not? It's 51 separate elections.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Platystemon posted:

Not in the same state, but Trump could find himself in a position where he wins a majority of electors but no VP candidate does.

.This is constitutional crisis territory, so anything could happen. My guess is that enough Vance electors follow DJT’s wishes and switch to Ivanka or whoever,

The 12th amendment specifies what happens then:

quote:

The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice.
(Though lots of constitutional crisis opportunities in that quorum requirement).

Also see the election of 1824 when there was no majority for President.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Don Dongington posted:

Thanks for clarifying. To return to the topic at hand - early days still, but Kamala leading in the midwestern swing states is a pretty matter-ing turn of events, right?


That's labeled favorability, not vote.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

bulletsponge13 posted:

PA is pretty Red outside of the urban areas. It's called Pennsyltucky for a reason.



That's basically every state (except like MA and VT).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

facialimpediment posted:



Incidentally, this is why "weird" isn't just a childhood insult, but a correct descriptor.

I suspect weird is just Minnesota polite for "creep".

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
He also gave some very impressive speeches which is like 80% of looking like a good president.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Notahippie posted:

Yeah, this is a low-key good sign - it looks like Harris' team didn't leak, and you have to figure there are some disgruntled Shapiro advocates out there. If they can stay unified and disciplined and not get into petty internal disputes then that's a real good sign.

I have a concern in that media hate politicians that don't leak.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

I’m guessing a mad rush. I heard an interview with Jake Tapper and some VP Harris surrogate about the decision. Apparently in the interview for VP, Shapiro was making demands and I quote “giving off main character energy” to the point that Harris was turned off. Walz apparently was just saying he’d love to do good for the country with her. Seems like Shapiro doesn’t know how to turn off his ambition and play second fiddle. He must have missed that upgrade in the Democratic position factory, since even Buttigeig can play support.

I am kinda curious as to how particularly ambitious people deal with vice presidency... On one hand, VP is the shortcut to nomination for President. On the other, it's 4-8 years of going to all the events that are too unimportant for the President to deal with.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

piL posted:

I think Andrew Jackson and Teddy Roosevelt probably have him beat. Jackson took a shot to the chest in a duel, then killed the other guy before he became the only president to have killed a man in a duel.

Also, you know, the 4 that got shot to death.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Talking about press conferences isn't working the public. It's working the press.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

facialimpediment posted:

It would've been funnier if JD made sergeant so "Sergeant Scribbles" might stick. "Combat camera marine" is pretty good! One of the things I respected Max of Terminal Lance the most for - he deployed once as an MRAP gunner, *then* deployed again as a photographer/artist.

And on why Kamala isn't doing pressers and you're not hearing much about it: she's chatting off-record on her plane.

https://x.com/daveweigel/status/1821563888522960963?t=RC1bKdHxN6uY2CMGBkpHeA&s=19

As much as I despite those elements of media culture, Biden not massaging their egos was a major proboem for him in practice.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Platystemon posted:

“He’s the only one that makes sense to me” is a hell of a thing to say about Robert loving Kennedy Jr.

A few days after he (RFK jr) was hanging out with Scott Ritter, too.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Wow, managing to be weird about totally normal things like grandparents helping out with care of their grandkids is quite an accomplishment!

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Wingnut Ninja posted:

I've got a polling statistics question.

If you run one poll that has a 4% margin of error, and it shows Candidate A up by +3, that means that it's possible the "true" value is that they're down by -1. (to my understanding)


Basically any outcome is /possible/, including that candidate A is actually at around 0% --- imagine if everyone going to vote for them ended up in the sample! It's just very likely that the true outcome is only margin-of-error off the poll prediction.

Wingnut Ninja posted:

If you run multiple polls all with a 4% margin of error that all show Candidate A up by +3, does that give any higher confidence that the true value is closer to +3, or is it still just as likely that they're all -1? I know that sampling methodology and weighting and everything else adds a ton of complexity to real-world polling, and I'm not looking to get into that can of worms. This is just asking strictly about the statistical calculations
If the sampling is random and independent, I think so, but screwed up assumptions of independence gave us at least one market crash, so...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

shame on an IGA posted:

so can I keep calling him Nate Bronze because that's real fun for me

Bronze is useful, though. Nate Copper?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Yeah, and on top of that they're correcting for them because it's not actually a random sample to start with --- which means it's more hand waving than math.

Edit: fixed phrasing.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 11:27 on Aug 17, 2024

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
You could argue the modern GOP was born of making fun of teenage Chelsea Clinton's appearance....

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Voters dislike messy things, whether it's people's homes being bombed, asylum seekers at the border, or protests that aren't perfectly choreographed and consist of immaculately dressed people.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

MonkeyFit posted:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/26/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate-abc-microphones-00176294

Harris wants the mics hot at all times during the debate. I'd rather just have a normal debate. She'd probably be better served making him wait until his turn to make his remarks, wasting time instead of answering his questions.
This sounds like a bet on decorum violations hurting a Republican, so it's probably a mistake. Those rules only get applied to Democrats. Well, unless he reaches for the hard r.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

joat mon posted:

That is correct, prosecutors have the discretion to take into account a victim's wishes but are not required to do so.

...of course it may be hard to prosecute without the victim's testimony, and for relatively minor crimes following victim's wishes is likely appropriate.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Elviscat posted:



Lol, why would you even bother scheduling a speaking event in Boston, lol.

Walz was in town as well, I think it's some sort of national firefighter event.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Elderly, first-time offender with a not-very-dramatic financial crime? As much as I detest Trump, anything beyond probation would be firmly outside the norm, I would think.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Madurai posted:

I haven't seen one of those mechanical voting machines since the early Eighties, and as such never got the chance to actually vote using one.

New York used them till early 2000.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Is it Maggie Haberman sanitizing another insane rant and burying the lede on some pretty ugly comments?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

davecrazy posted:

That’s an old Rush Limbaugh rhetorical tic.

He always called them the ‘Democrat’ party.

Well, and Trump is the closest they've come to putting Rush Limbaugh into the White House.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

boop the snoot posted:

workers won't get deported. capitalism needs them. they just want to be able to shoot people at the border and be able to harass minorities in the streets.

if they deport the workers then they will lose one of the foundations of their entire party platform. I don't think that's what they want.

10% tariff on everything would also suck for the economy. I think it's likely that Trump term #2 will have less traditional republicans putting breaks on
poo poo that's just insane when it happens to be bad for business.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Nick Soapdish posted:

Lol now Trump is trying to blame Harris for Russia invading Ukraine, Jesus tap dancing Christ

Edit: This is great, hit Trump on not including the actual Afghan government and only the Taliban with the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Harris is doing great
On just about any issue, Trump loves claiming that the problem won't happen with him in charge, without ever offering anything substantial on how he would affect that. Pure narcissism.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I note Trump is only saving cats here

Why don't you care about dogs Trump

Can't upset relations with S. Dakota's governor.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Platystemon posted:

O.K. so what would the results look like if we only let people capable of bearing children vote?

🤔

Probably not too great given how fertility interacts with age differently between men and women and the gender gap in political preferences...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

CBJSprague24 posted:

https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1840550305085141221?t=fSBf9aR5XZlyRsc1tQITHQ&s=19

I found someone I rode the school bus with in elementary school in the replies. Turns out he achieved his dream of being a right-wing fuckin' wackadoo and even appeared on Steve Bannon's show.

Besides it clearly not being written by Trump, he also probably doesn't know that a particular country's capital's coat of arms has St. Michael on it....
Ukraine's

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

ThisIsJohnWayne posted:

BREAKING - The supreme court has given guidance: It's not illegal when Moo Deng does it. Moo Deng is not a crook

I think the law only applies to humans, not adorable minihippos(?)

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Great, now he's gonna register an account to yell at you

I think SA requires payment in advance, though?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Quackles posted:

it's only catholic if the pope recognizes you. otherwise it's sparkling protestantism :v:

Tradcath converts strike me as the most extreme form of protestantism: converting just so they can say how a bunch of Popes are doing Catholicism wrong (and shouldn't be in charge).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Herstory Begins Now posted:

things that famously were not rationed under nazi rule due to extreme shortages

also they're losing the messaging on this badly if this is the conversation being had

If Trump was actually considering invading Azerbaijan for their oil that may have actually improved my opinion of him (not really, but their government does suck).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

And today's prize for Dumbest Motherfuckers In The Universe goes to

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-counter-endorsement/

I want so amazingly badly to ask them how they personally responded to the Uighur genocide, or the genocide in Burma.

Or the wars in Sudan, Nagorno-Karabakh, or Ethiopia. Or the continuous, decades long Catastrofuck that is Congo.

Or how a guy who uses genocidal rhetoric will somehow end a genocide.

The Nation's publisher and previous editor is a Russian mouthpiece and a contributor to apologia of Russia's attempt to genocide the Ukrainian people.

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

facialimpediment posted:



this is what happens when they elect a new poop

The poop chart is a good metaphor for "choices" in most Russian "elections" (different shapes of Poo...Putin).

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