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Mappo
Apr 27, 2009
J.D. Vance is also skipping out on the Prime Minister’s visit.

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Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

A.o.D. posted:

If Trump loses this one, he's done. That doesn't mean the threat he represents is over. Far from it, but the fascists and neo Confederates who rallied around him are going to have to find a figurehead that isn't as deeply off-putting as most of their rank and file are. Of course, that's only if Trump loses.

If Trump loses, he will attempt to run again. He's not going to give up his position as head of the GOP; he won't appoint an heir and then calmly step aside. I don't expect his base to automatically leave him because he lost again, he will claim a rigged election just like last time. Trump isn't going away until he falls over dead, and then there will be a massive power vacuum in the republican party because no one can match his charisma.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

Flikken posted:

If he doesn't get elected, SOMETHING is going to stick in the courts. And he will be what? 81-82 next presidential election cycle?

Whatever sticks in the court, he will appeal to the Supreme Court, which will rule on presidential immunity. The Republican party and its donor base will fund all of his legal fees. Trump will still be campaigning in his 80s so long as he still can; he won't give up power until he falls over dead.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009
I also think that most people are just tired of dealing with Trump. Like, clearly a lot of people will go out and vote for him if he is on the ticket. But when it comes to doing things like refusing to certifying elections or invalidate results, they are not going to step up for their rapidly aging special boy. Plus, if the election does go to the supreme court or the electoral college gets invalidated and it's sent to the house of representatives. There will be massive riots.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

Proud Christian Mom posted:

we should probably never again hear from all the smart politics knowers who spent the last month plus telling us that Biden was just fine and that also Shapiro is the best VP choice

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009
Earlier this year I was watching someone report from CPAC and it felt like the entire right wing establishment had been replaced with grifters, shills and those desperately trying to get out lawsuits.

Watching them continue to fail at running a campaign really underscores that theory.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

Kaiser Schnitzel posted:

I mean Walz was a great pick, but to be a Debbie downer, this is exactly how the republicans felt going into their convention after Trump had been shot. This too shall pass. Once the republican nasty attack ads start rolling out and they get their poo poo more together, it’s not gonna look so rosy. The economy is still growing but it has definitely slowed down over the last few months, and even tho the rate of increase in inflation has flatlined, prices are still high and wages haven’t entirely caught up and it’s had a very really effect on people in fixed incomes. It’s likely still going to be a very close race, but having an enthusiastic base is super important and that’s a big change from three weeks ago. I think the democrats are genuinely excited for the first time since Obama, republicans continue to be angry and scared.

I think it's reasonable to be skeptical and I do believe those are good reasons it could be close. However, the republican enthusiasm didn't decline in a vacuum. Trump destroyed the goodwill he gained from getting shot in his two hour long acceptance speech and JD Vance is a horrible VP pick.

It's also weird that the republican's don't have effective attack lines for Harris by now. They had 4 years, they knew she was at least going to be the VP pick. They should of at least had something to throw at her for the VP debate. But no, they went all in on "Biden old" and now they are scrambling to find something. I am starting to think they are not running a competent campaign.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

facialimpediment posted:

I linked this before, but it explains the effects of Donnie's RNC takeover and why it's going to end up loving things up:

https://x.com/billscher/status/1820091139300761970?t=0mRap1sO4BwXTDyr7xtUuA&s=19

He literally ditched the RNC effort for GOTV to Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA. Coordination is now allowed between campaigns and SuperPACs like that for GOTC-only purposes, but any dollar going out to TPUSA has a cut go into Charlie's forehead hair.

Also from the TP training.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009
It looks like Trump is slowing down the number of rallies he is doing.
This week Harris and Waltz are doing:

Tuesday: Pennsylvania
Wednesday: Wisconsin
Thursday: Michigan
Friday: Arizona
Saturday: Nevada

Vance will be tailing behind them and doing rallies in the same states. Trump had two rallies planned this week, the one in North Carolina was cancelled due to tropical storm Deby, his next rally will be on Friday in Bozeman, Montana. Why are you going to Montana Donnie?

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Something I've wondered about since the shooting... who is heir if trump goes? They seem all-in on him and I don't know what their plan b is, if there is one

If Trump dies before the election, it will probably be Vance. We are closing in on ballots being printed and it would be extremely difficult to built an entirely new ticket. The RNC does have a way to quickly change the ticket if someone drops out/dies but it would still be really messy.

As for who is the heir to the Republican Party, who knows. I imagine Don Jr will try and take up the mantle, you can imagine how that will go over. Vance will try as well because he was the VEEP pick, but no one likes him. I also think Nikki Hailey will attempt to be their next candidate, she had a lot of backing that refused to move towards Trump in the primaries. She presents as being more competent than anyone else in the party so maybe she gets it? It will be a blood path as people fight over the power vacuum and money left on the table.

Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

Hyrax Attack! posted:

Is there any serious chatter about Vance being dropped? I’ve only seen it rumored here, feels like trump is the much bigger problem and while Vance isn’t a big help he’s out there campaigning & making an effort, and most of the most damaging stuff like having been anti trump was known a long time ago.

There hasn't, Trump can't just fire Vance and then pick someone else. There is a lot of work involved in replacing the VP candidate, and it requires numerous people to be involved. So we would hear something if there were serious talks about replacing Vance. To put it into context, there have been rumors that Trump was going to shake up his campaign staff. So, if we are getting that gossip, we would know if Vance was on the way out.

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Mappo
Apr 27, 2009

Hyrax Attack! posted:

The onion nowadays feels like one freelancer with an OpenAI account. At least their archives are still up.

I'm hopeful for a turn around now that they are no longer under G/O Media.

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