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Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

And Tom Cotton is already there.

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Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Between the rednecks, Cubans, and olds, why is Florida ever even in contention for Democrats?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
What this tells me is that Obama won handily not because of a liberalizing american public, but because McCain and Romney weren't fascist enough to drive heavy conservative turnout.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Defenestrategy posted:

Obama and Joe is a stronger ticket just on charisma value than joe kamala. Also stronger because people could believe obama might actually fight for change in society. Nobody is under that illusion for Joe.

While I do accept that, we're seeing unprecedented rural turnout for Trump right now. They didn't get motivated by mainstream conservative like McCain or Romney, but by Trump and his belligerent ignorant fascism.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Six million more people voted for Trump this year than in 2016. America had vast previously unexplored fascism reserves that are now flowing freely.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Milo and POTUS posted:

Honestly a lasting fissure in the GOP might be the only thing that can save us

There's no fissure, they're just tossing the idiot over the side after getting what they needed out of him while they groom the next fascist figurehead.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

They were a lot more wrong and all in the same direction. The methods are flawed.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

stealie72 posted:

Perhaps polling only works in countries without deep suspicion of...poo poo, everything?

2018 was pretty accurate. 2016 and 2020 were not and in the same way. Pollsters didn't account for Trump's cult of personality even though they should have after 2016.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

shame on an IGA posted:

Why are all the philly ballot counters wearing hi-vis are they doing this in the middle of the street or something

I assume it's for east identification of who is allowed to be where.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Mr. Nice! posted:

He doesn't. The race will be called tonight.

Glad I'll probably be asleep by then because I didn't want to buy a bottle of champagne prematurely and have a sad, depressing bottle sitting around all year afterwards.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Platystemon posted:

Biden has lead coattails.

Democrats did way loving better in the midterm election than in this presidential election. That should not be happening.

Meanwhile, Democratic leadership is blaming the spectres of communism and police abolition for their losses.

The midterm election didn't have Trump at the top to get the chuds out.
Cult of personality.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Mr. Nice! posted:

It's alright to be frustrated. Here is the good news: everyone is turning on his bullshit. MSNBC, for example, literally cut the president's presser yesterday as soon as he said "illegal votes" because it's bullshit.

Yeah, the media are getting brave now that it's apparent he's on the way out.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

While amusing, I am getting super tired of "conservatism is the new counterculture! Following the rules is the new punk!"

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Champagne pops tonight,
SUCK MY DICK YOU FUCKMAN.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Duzzy Funlop posted:


I'm gonna have a Weißwurst-Frühstück with a Weizen tomorrow morning

Did that Friday, excellent way to start a morning. Pretzel dough does just fine with an overnight rise too.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Taking a weekend to feel relieved and happy isn't going to doom America. If Spike Lee can spend a day being happy about this, you all sure can.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

DurosKlav posted:

I think he's more or less hinted at it but never outright said so. He knows he's just a stopgap and not the actual solution to the problem.

He's referred to himself as being a "transition candidate" intending to pass the reins on to the younger generation.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Milo and POTUS posted:

Oh god there's a ring

Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

There is now a new version for people who live in states with tight spreads.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Got some crémant d'alsace. Feeling pretty good.

Also, lol.
https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1325125876137283585

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

bengy81 posted:

This is my new big fear, that Biden is gonna pull a Gerry Ford. Is this a thing to bug my congress critters about? How does a person let the President-elect know that this is a lovely idea?

ded posted:

if it looks like trump will go to jail, i bet biden will pardon him. hes already gone on about 'coming together and healing'

Are you guys actually serious? Ford pardoned Nixon because Ford was Nixon's vice president and this was part of a corrupt bargain to get Nixon out of the White House in exchange for not prosecuting him afterwards. Biden is Trump's political enemy of the opposing party with literally nothing to gain from a pardon and a lot to lose.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

A Bad Poster posted:

That brain genius is confusing a rescue dog with some sort of support animal.

https://twitter.com/AnarKerry/status/1325435037957967873

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

facialimpediment posted:

I think Nate is closest to my electoral hot take, based on what I know right now. Not to spur a debate or long discussion, just bringing this up:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325495694984171520?s=19

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325496923575492650?s=19

It's still very early, so we can't really make huge conclusions. But it seems pretty clear that if Donnie had just shut the flying gently caress up about COVID and give it to scientists, he would've coasted to reelection. Everything else in the House/Senate is so close that either "more DSA-style candidates" or "more centrist candidates" doesn't have a clear answer at this point.

Also possibly not wrong (though Pelosi was working on bad polling):

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1325497338853462017?s=19

Pelosi knew it would boost him if he got another Trump signed check in everyone's hands which is why, despite what some people here said, refused to give that to him unless she got everything else she wanted like extended unemployment, rent assistance, eviction protection, etc. McConnell DGAF though.

And yeah, we've been hearing for four years "if only Donnie had shut up about..." but he wouldn't because that's fundamentally who he is. He's a belligerent, arrogant, ignorant loudmouth. He's not just playing one on TV.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Defenestrategy posted:

Oh yea... I forgot about bitching about this


I think I said something like "gently caress it just send them an offer for another round of trump bux, mcconnells not gonna pass it anyway."

Thats some really hosed political calculous if so. Because it meant pelosi and house caucus with held doing everything they could to help people who where actually suffering to score a few percentage points at the polls.

McConnell obstruction aside, it's a calculation that had to be made. Is the help given to people by a one-time check alone worth another four years of Trump and McConnell destroying more lives? I wouldn't say that it is.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Defenestrategy posted:

I'm certain that people who failed to make rent or food until the democrats get their poo poo together will certainly appreciate this.

Eat for one more month so Trump can starve you the next month, sure sounds great.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Dum Cumpster posted:

Is the reality that there are living people who vote that have the same names as dead people or is their entire idea just bullshit like that fake newspaper headline?

Both.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/08/tech/michigan-dead-voter-fact-debunking/index.html

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Fister Roboto posted:

Less than 48 hours from "the unity candidate" declaring victory, and they've already got their guns pointed at the left of the party.

Please tell me again how we can just pull Biden left.

Whining on the internet is definitely the way to go, not supporting organizations and actions.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

McNally posted:

I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but people are often capable of doing more than just one thing. Such as supporting organizations and actions while whining on the internet.

The specific post I responded to sure sounded like defeatist whining to me.

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Considering how downraces have been (as you point out), it's a question (and one that needs more analysis), that the association alone wasn't a net positive. People can point out AOC/Omar all the want, but those races weren't even remotely competitive (I think AOC is D+30), and it's possible that it was all a mixed success, good for dem strongholds, not so much for competitive races, if only by association. Once again this is going to require more data and I could totally be wrong, but much like one exit poll being tossed at the Lincoln Project (especially as it discounts and look at independent voters), I don't think anyone can claim it with any certainty...at this point and time.

But eh I'm willing to put aside any differences as we find out who Mark Meadows rona'ed beyond Big Ben and staffers.

More data analysis is definitely needed. Were the split tickets mostly Republicans who were persuaded to dump Trump? Independent centrists? We don't know so it's really premature to say that the left wing killed the down ballot races, or going harder left would have inspired more support or any other conclusion.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Hmm....man gun control really doesn't have that much strong support. :v:

I get it, really I do, but at the same time what are the districts like where people who ran on M4A? If it's a D+30 like AOC, then it just means people like red meat, just like they do for certain polices in R+30 ones, of little utility for national trends.

Also I trust a Fox poll about as much as a WCW web poll about Hulk Hogan....but cheap joke aside, it's really something that's going to need a lot more data (as you point out) and analytical work. I'm willing to remain open minded, but I need something harder then what is being offered right now.


I'm not an expert but I think the data we need is how the ballots look in the places that went for Biden as President but a Republican down ballot. If there are a lot of lefties who voted for Biden to get Trump out but said "gently caress that noise" to the centrist Democrats running for Congress, that would imply that the Democrats need to run harder left. If areas that poll heavily for M4A and higher minimum wage also voted heavily for Biden and Republican Congress then I don't even know what the gently caress.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Hot Karl Marx posted:

Conservative talking points are also rooted in emotional response and fears, which is a lot easier to relate to than big plans and things. I'm not saying having big plans is bad, just that it is a harder sell for what conservatives are selling

This probably helped defeat Trump. His complete failure to address the pandemic was a huge source of emotional response and fear that went against him. It's easier to be afraid of a virus that is visibly killing hundreds of thousands of people and keeping you from seeing your family than it is to be afraid of central American migrant caravans and Deep Staters sneaking into your house to steal your Bibles.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

How'd they get the next months' worth of NPR stories already?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

mlmp08 posted:

https://twitter.com/toddgillman/status/1326019818588409857?s=21

Refusing to concede to own the libs pay the bills.

Republican Party: attacking the legitimacy of our elections and government to fleece the chuds.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
On the other hand, rats were also responsible for a major plague.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Woofer posted:

Theoretically to prevent people like Donald Trump from becoming president.

I thought it was to theoretically prevent people like Barack Obama from becoming president.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

orange juche posted:

Grift, and inject doubt into the democratic process in the hope of driving down future voter turnout, which makes it easier for them to get their desired outcome. If they're playing 10th dimensional chess and can actually stop states from certifying votes (doesn't look like the courts are willing to put up with this poo poo though), they can force a vote in the House to select the President.

Also, jam up the transition process so Biden has less time to plan and prepare.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

War Boi posted:

I guess if I’m being honest, I’ll do fine most likely under a Biden or Trump administration.

I will vote Biden of course, but materially my life won’t be impacted at all.

Perhaps my kids life will be, but I won’t hold my breath.

The only thing I won’t do is entertain that brain wormed dog eating son of a bitch RFK Jr.

My kids will be living in a world of climate change disasters and the degree is very much related to who runs the US now and in the near future.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-governors-sleep/index.html

:dogstare:

Democracy is boned.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Biden was sharp and answered questions in depth and accurately. If your takeaway is "he got some names mixed up" you're an idiot.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

At this point all that matters is having someone who can beat Trump. Doesn't matter if Biden has an over 9000 IQ, the media has successfully painted him as a doddering old fool.

CNN has decided that the presser just didn't happen since it doesn't work in their narrative.



https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1811550389541425233

Stultus Maximus fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Jul 12, 2024

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

ThisIsJohnWayne posted:

If you don't have anything nice to say you shouldn't say anything is what I tell myself right now.

I certainly don't have anything nice to say about someone's aim.

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Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

orange juche posted:

Army loving broke Mustang's brain, now everything is poo poo and will forever be poo poo, he has no positivity towards anything ever.

True, but this is the first time all year I think he's actually 100% correct.

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