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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Given that these are all from before Harris was even running or campaigning for president, is it crazy to assume that these numbers are basically a lower limit for her? I mean it's not like she's a complete unknown but there's a big difference between a VP who is mainly supporting and advocating for someone else, and campaigning on your own message and merits as the top of the ticket. It's hard to imagine her not gaining more ground as she gets out from under Biden's shadow.

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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Nick Soapdish posted:

I think Vance is gonna be jettisoned by the end of the month, mid-Aug latest

What's the rationale though? Saying "oops it turns out he's a crazy shithead that nobody likes" doesn't exactly inspire confidence or enthusiasm for whoever gets picked next.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

CBJSprague24 posted:

BARACK HUS-SEIN OBAMA is a talking point I haven't seen in a bit.

Frantically digging through the archives to try and find some attacks that might have traction. It's like Russia rolling out their museum piece tanks.

It's especially pathetic because Obama is obviously going to endorse her at some point soon so that'll just be one more worthless talking point.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
"If JD Vance didn't gently caress a couch then why do I keep insisting he did?" is some hilarious turnabout for the post-factual era that Republicans have been working so hard to establish.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Coasterphreak posted:

My tinfoil hat brain half thinks Biden stayed in the race as long as he did to make sure Trump dug himself a nice deep hole. If that was the galaxy brain plan, it fuckin worked

It can definitely look like that in hindsight, seeing how smoothly everything transferred to Harris and how much enthusiasm it generated. I 100% believe it was accidental though, both because that would be a hugely risky strategy, and because lol the Democrats.

My one small bit of tinfoil hattery is that there was a lot more work going on behind the scenes prior to Biden dropping out to get people lined up for Harris. I know that's contradicted by things like accounts of Biden advisers getting one minute notice before it was twote and Harris' husband hilariously leaving his phone in the car while meeting with some friends when it went down. But the idea of something going that quickly and without drama for the Democrats is hard to fit into my world view.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
The Vance Opposition Research Vault has got to look like the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark at this point.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Hyrax Attack! posted:

Does Walz have any baggage? Seems good but dunno if missing something.

Once in 2013 someone sneezed and he didn't say "bless you". Irredeemably toxic.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
I know there is no shortage of idiots who would be willing to step up, but LMAO just imagine going down in history as the person who was the second choice after JD loving Vance.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
You absolutely cannot trust the Ohio legislature to act in good faith, they're a bunch of ratfucking shitheads of the highest degree.

I was looking up the vote by mail ballot application last night and they won't even process requests until October, which is a month later than they did in 2020. They also no longer let you request VBM ballots for every election in the year (primary+general) like they used to, you now have to send a request for each one. It's not quite as bad as Georgia's "enter the name of the voter you wish to purge" website but they're definitely doing their best to enshitten the process.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Oh right, the convo was about dropping Vance. Yeah, I have no doubt that Ohio would bend over backwards to the max extent possible to accommodate Republicans in that case.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

bad_fmr posted:

Hilldog for VP to unite the nation

Please just go away Mr. Sorkin.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Gen. Ripper posted:

UPDATE: Right-wingers are now insinuating Walz hosed his dog. Very normal etc.

https://x.com/JoeyMannarinoUS/status/1820909246994694450

Going after cat moms must have polled so well that they decided to go after dog dads too.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

maffew buildings posted:

I was skeptical about this Walz fellow when I was told he's an E-9 and a Guardsman no less, but then I learned about his DUI and thought "you know, I think he's going to be the right choice"

I love the nascent swiftboating attempt to cast the master sergeant major with a DUI as not a Real Troop.

Wingnut Ninja fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Aug 6, 2024

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

A.o.D. posted:

Sergeant Major.

Oops. I blame it on Navy ranks associating "master" with E-9.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Terrifying Effigies posted:

Just six weeks ago it was Joe, to this. Goddamn.

Walz is going to eat JV (lol) Vance alive if they ever get to a debate stage.

It was Joe two and a half weeks ago. They've literally compressed an entire year-long campaign process into half a month. It's loving unreal.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

To be fair, given the state of his brain it's possible for him to do all that and still have no idea about Project 2025.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Cimber posted:

Not military nor did I serve, but I do have a question if you folks don't mind me wandering in here.

In the NG, how long is the process for someone of Walz's rank to retire? I imagine he doesn't just walk into his CO's office and says "hey, I'm outta here.".

From what I've read he retired a few months before his unit was alerted for Iraq, would it even have been possible for him to rejoin had he wanted too?

It's like a year+ process, it's absolutely not something you do in the spur of the moment.

Plus when a command sergeant major retires or leaves the unit, they get another CSM. That's how billets work. The idea that he somehow abandoned his unit by cravenly retiring after 24 years of service is insultingly asinine. There isn't a :jerkbag: big enough for JD Vance.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Kazinsal posted:

He's gonna drop a hard R during the debate. I can feel it bubbling up.

Nah, he's too much of a coward to say it to someone's face. I could believe a hot mic picking it up under his breath though.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Trump turning a giant dial labeled "racism" but no matter where he turns it the audience is booing him.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

bulletsponge13 posted:

Wait, I missed it- what did Joe Rogan say?

Received the light of brain worms and unhesitatingly endorsed RFK Jr.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Platystemon posted:

“He’s the only one that makes sense to me” is a hell of a thing to say about Robert loving Kennedy Jr.

It's entirely appropriate for Joe Rogan, a man so stupid he isn't allowed outside when it's raining because he would drown while staring up into the sky in confusion.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
I could have sworn Ohio already had an anti-gerrymandering thing years ago and the state Republicans were just like "nah, we prefer not to". Not really sure what would make this one be enforced any better.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

CommieGIR posted:

Given that Epstein was both jailed and is now dead, was it just a plane that he used to use/rent?

Yes, I assume it's just a charter company that rents planes to rich fuckers, and there aren't that many of them around, so this sort of thing was pretty likely to happen at some point.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
I've got a polling statistics question.

If you run one poll that has a 4% margin of error, and it shows Candidate A up by +3, that means that it's possible the "true" value is that they're down by -1. (to my understanding)

If you run multiple polls all with a 4% margin of error that all show Candidate A up by +3, does that give any higher confidence that the true value is closer to +3, or is it still just as likely that they're all -1? I know that sampling methodology and weighting and everything else adds a ton of complexity to real-world polling, and I'm not looking to get into that can of worms. This is just asking strictly about the statistical calculations.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Hoo boy guys, I just saw the documentary "Birth of a Nation", and lemme tell you, it shows how we definitely need to

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

lightpole posted:

The only thing I actually remember from my statistics class was the opening to the YouTube videos we watched while doing our homework was something like "Youre a totally great and fantastic person and very smart and wonderful and don't kill yourself statistics is very very difficult."
https://www.reddit.com/r/EngineeringStudents/comments/dx9tgv/the_opening_paragraph_to_goodsteins_textbook/

quote:

Ludwig Boltzman, who spent much of his life studying statistical mechanics, died in 1906, by his own hand. Paul Ehrenfest, carrying on the work, died similarly in 1933. Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Xakura posted:

But when you sample you correct for age/income/ethnicity yeah? That includes assumptions that are not independent across different polls.

Yeah, I didn't want to turn this into the Polling Discussion chat so I was keeping it limited to a very specific statistical question. It's possible, maybe even likely, that all the polls aren't sampling or correcting accurately, but that's not something we can really know until November 6th.

This was prompted by someone in the GBS election thread posting half a dozen polls that were all Harris up by a couple points, and someone said "well they're all within the margin of error". Which made me curious how that works across multiple polls.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

facialimpediment posted:

barry made a dick joke at the dnc

Leave posted:

That's what I'm stuck on; how is a former President, no matter how bigly, able to pull that kind of poo poo?

These two lines of thought just collided in the best way.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

facialimpediment posted:

Here's the recap of the Big CNN Interview that Kamala Can't Do Because She Can't Talk Good

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1829331750142578877

That's not even a loving question! You're just saying something that Trump said, what do you want?

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

OddObserver posted:

Elderly, first-time offender with a not-very-dramatic financial crime? As much as I detest Trump, anything beyond probation would be firmly outside the norm, I would think.

Trump's own behavior is firmly outside the norm, though. What's the precedent for people who are maximally antagonistic and contemptuous to the entire legal system throughout the whole process?

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

davecrazy posted:

It’s literal Latin I think.

JFC, did someone just ask ChatGPT to create an ad to appeal to Latin Americans?

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
I'm really perplexed why Marge suddenly decided that this instance of rancid, naked racism was too much, but at least it's generating some great content.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Stultus Maximus posted:

It's "false witness against your neighbor" and I'm pretty sure somewhere in the Bible it says that your neighbor does not include foreigners that you aren't too fond of.

If one were to actually use the Bible as a moral framework, it's all in favor of murdering foreigners and condones a shitload of genocide.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
There's a great Terry Pratchett line where he describes a character as "the kind of person who naturally pronounces 'negro' with two g's". For some reason that's been coming to mind a lot recently.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

SIRRAH
ZLAW

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

facialimpediment posted:

confirmed: weirdly horny on main on a forum called Nude Africa

https://x.com/ShimonPro/status/1836849922701656487

Bottom line: all over the internet he used the same username, email address, and weirdo catchphrases.

If you had asked me what the odds were that that was actually written by a black guy, and not a wacked out white supremacist sockpuppet, I would have said less than 5%.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Raerlynn posted:

I think I'd just start drinking if a presidential candidate's helldump and forum rap sheet make it as topics in the news.

We've only been safe so far because JD was better at picking an untraceable user name.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

facialimpediment posted:

Breaking news: Mark Robinson didn't do any of those posts 15 years ago, it was all AI

Tomorrow: "those posts were made by Haitian immigrants!"

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
I feel like Nixon would have had some banger drunk tweets if Twitter had been around in the 70's.

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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
I've started seeing a few 3'x3' Harriz/Walz signs around town, which seems like a new format. It definitely stands out.

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