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mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Basically if Biden didn’t win very fast, it will be a longer, more drawn out thing after which one of the two will win just cause of vote count methods and timelines.

So no matter the results, might be a while.

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mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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If Trump wins, then at least we'll get 4 more years of "Bernie would have won" versus "Bernie couldn't even win a primary, how would he win the general?" and oh boy, what a treat that enduring debate would be...

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Fister Roboto posted:

Well you're doing a great job of starting it with this post.

My post should've been taken as black humor, not as an invitation to actually debate it; chill

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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PA has something like 2+ million mail ballots to count yet. And it will take a long time because they generally don't authorize counting them ahead of election day, because everything is stupid.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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On top of being really annoying just because of delay and people being anxious, it will open up an avenue 8 miles wide for people of all stripes to develop pet theories and poo poo about ballot counting based on whatever biases they need confirmed. So... neat.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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not caring here posted:

Wait, all this poo poo is so crazy right now I might have not even bothered paying attention today? I could've been playing Death Stranding?

Ain't that some poo poo.

Yeah, though that's basically been the case for about 2 hours. If it wasn't an immediate blowout, it was always pretty likely to just take a long time such that there's little to lose by loving off other than that you might miss some weird meltdowns or something.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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https://twitter.com/parkermolloy/status/1323844446199386112?s=21

She’s not wrong.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost
And this is worth keeping in mind just when considering how often to F5 mentally or physically.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323939333150248961?s=21

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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nwin posted:

Why is PA so hosed up? Not enough people to count mail in votes?

A bunch of PA counties have rules like not being allowed to even start counting until in-person polls close.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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pantslesswithwolves posted:

, he’s not going to have the mandate to get past how thoroughly the well will be poisoned by Trump and Fox News as they shriek about fraud in the coming days.

For better or worse, I don’t think mandate is actually a thing. And even if some voters think it is, Republican senators absolutely don’t believe in it.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Americans continue to favor policies that are left of who they vote for as well as left of what
people who are in office think Americans support.

https://twitter.com/amanbatheja/status/1323978358343032834?s=21

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Yeah, I have to wonder if new first time gun owners got spooked about how their property could have to be "bought back" and they'd get no money for it. I don't mean to imply it was a deciding factor, but I'm interested to see if it moved some votes.

lol. Maybe some like... literally existed but statistically insignificant.

If there was a huge message problem that might’ve resonated with the every person Democrats sucked with, it was “we’ll put your kids back in school” about one hundred rungs above the gun confiscation fears of brand new gun owners.

“You’ll have a job and public school (aka childcare) again” probably meant a lot more to random middle of the road people than fear of the ATF.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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lightpole posted:

Its simple math??

If you do the simple math on the mail-in ratios it’s razor thin but Biden wins after the next 880K mail-in ballots.

There’s zero guarantee those ratios remain constant, of course so toss-up or slightest of leans Biden rather than auto Biden win news.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Pine Cone Jones posted:

I'll show it like I showed that stop sign. I did not win that.

The irony here, though, is that lightpole did the math wrong.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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https://twitter.com/pixelatedboat/status/1324150631016263680?s=21

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Stultus Maximus posted:

They were a lot more wrong and all in the same direction. The methods are flawed.

The polls were very bad input! The aggregators/analyzers were largely more cautious and better at explaining and interpretation this time.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324179823565131777?s=21

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Woofer posted:

Is this stupid poo poo over yet

The Cain 999 plan was actually how many days this election would last.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Don Dongington posted:

My predictions:
- The Trumps spend the next 40 or so years in and out of court for various types of fraud and SEC violations
- Don Jnr keeps trying to run, and everyone keeps having to remind him that as a felon, he's ineligible
- Baron, the only Trump to escape conviction turns out to be the chosen one - the moderate Republican who brings balance to the GoP. He teaches his terminally ill father humility, and working together they primary Mitch McConnell, breaking his death grip on the senate and the country. He marries Billie Eilish and eventually the people vote to give him a 3rd and 4th term. He does not pardon Kushner.
-Hunter Biden drives his late father's Trans Am into the heart of Fox News and blows it up. He didn't mean to, he was just on that much coke.

Iraq welcomes us as liberators.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

nwin posted:

I see different opinions based on where I look.

All the poo poo going on in Maricopa county in Arizona:

Are people pissed off because votes are still being counted or because people are counting votes 24/7 and taking some time off?

It seems that the left is saying republicans are storming the gates because they’re mad the votes are still being counted (like they should have been done already), but the right is saying they’re pissed off because the count is taking so long, counters are going home, and the counters are only counting the Biden votes to project that he’s the winner.

I dunno. I was raised in Arizona and have always thought I’d retire there. The last year of seeing how they handled COVID and all the voting has seriously made me reconsider.

It’s not tricky. Trump supporters are protesting that in places where he might win, they workers havent counted fast enough and they’re even more pissed that votes are being counted at all in places where a full count very likely means Trump loses.

Their protest is purely about “Trump win” not election process.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Oh so when I posted some Sherman memes to make fun of Seb, one of Sherman’s descendants replied to me saying her family will love these and when the statues of Lee started coming down your father was going around telling people about they need to replace them with Sherman.

Twitter is just such a strange thing and occasionally pretty awesome.

lol

Just don’t mention Sherman’s similar all-out war tactics and racism against Indian nations.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

GoGoGadget posted:

How come everyone is saying the Senate being Republican-controlled is a forgone conclusion? I'm seeing it being at 47-47 right now, and if Biden wins Democrats only need to get two seats, right?

48-50 D-R headed into GA runoffs. Best bet is looking like an even* split.

*with Manchin.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

As Nero Danced posted:

You'd think they'd be learn the opposition is going to trot out that horse every drat time even if they're running to the right of Ayn Rand. And yet...

Democrats get the popular vote but lose election: aaaahhhh we’ve lost our way!

Democrats win and still win popular vote: Aaaaahhh we’ve lost our way!

Introspection has value but man I feel like they tie themselves in dumb knots when just going hard and doing ground game matters a LOT.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Sour Grapes Centrist: I cannot believe we were forced to run on a platform of ........ hang on, I’m trying to get “Eff The Police” to play over this darn conference call.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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AOC is about one step from just saying “lmao, you loser”

https://twitter.com/aoc/status/1324404161660751873?s=21

Also maybe unintentional Bernie shade, but very notably Bernie isn’t out there bad faith crying about how abloobloo the bad dems made him say a thing he didn’t say/like.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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https://twitter.com/lionel_trolling/status/1324674662568255489?s=20

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Mr. Nice! posted:

It's alright to be frustrated. Here is the good news: everyone is turning on his bullshit.

Nah. Plenty of GOP senators who just won and have six uncontested years in front of him are openly endorsing his argument against counting votes and even going as far as saying republican statehouses should usurp the electors.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost

lightpole posted:

Pretty sure the only reason he ran is to get Trump out of office. He is only doing 1 term and is anything but dynamic. I wish he had run 4 years ago so we wouldn't be in this position. Biden barely managed to beat Trump, I have a strong suspicion Bernie would not have done any better, probably even worse as they would have been able to label him a radical and attack him with the riots.

I think Bernie would be a better president. But also I think Bernie would have lost. It’s a position that means that both brunch libs and also red rose twitter gets angry. (I voted Bernie in the primary)

Biden didn’t really barely win. Multiple states were coin flips but he won every single one of those key coin flips. When you only need like ~2 of 6 coin flips to go your way, the math is very on your side, even if it’s nerve-wracking to watch.

Basically Nate Silver was right. He made a model that said “even if polls are underreporting Trump votes by a lot, Biden will win and it will take forever to count.” That was correct. His model was essentially if you roll a ten-sided die, Biden needs a 2-10 to win. Biden rolled a 3 or 4 and a lot of people lost it as a result.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Zamujasa posted:

In terms of how Bernie would have done, I honestly think the best thing to look at is Nevada's democratic caucuses. Early voting used ranked-choice forms.

Why? NV demographically doesn’t look very much like the rest of the nation and ranked choice is neat but not how the GE is done.

It seems like a kind of outlier and unique state to select as a national bellwether.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Zamujasa posted:

As for demographics, the US is huge and I have to ask what state you would consider a good demographic representation for the majority of the US.

But most of the reason was that it was one of the few early primaries caucuses when most of the candidates were still in and it had ranked-choice votes.

Probably not a less white (caucasian) and also less black state than the national average that makes up less than 1% of the population for a start. No state is perfect, but AZ, PA, and NC all make a bit more sense to me.

Is there any evidence caucuses are more accurate in determining GE winners? Sure doesn’t look like it. The GE is not a caucus and caucus favorites haven’t done exceptionally well unless it’s a very clear frontrunner.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=21

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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It’s a sad day for accelerationism.

If someone was already a No Joe, then that die has been cast since months ago, as the result (outside a death) was always Trump v Biden since April of 2020.

It is sad for those who held real hope for winning control of the senate.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Nap Ghost
The real doom scenario isn't "I hate Biden" as much as it could be this:

2022, midterm performance uncertain or maybe bad (but maybe not, as typically first term presidents have more house/senate power that drives greater backlash?)
2024 maybe Biden loses
2024 Some GOP person is president and not much got fixed in the meantime due to the Senate and then on top of that we could see a return to GOP president plus GOP senate.
2028 Incumbent wins reelection

I mean, the next decade could suck! But that doesn't mean I'll be upset about Trump losing.

Chaos mode: Biden dies between now and inauguration.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Besides, should you ever feel like you shouldn't be dooming about elections, you could just doom about climate change instead.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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DurosKlav posted:

Theres no way in hell Biden will run in 2024 imo, he'll be in his 80s if he survives his first term.

Yeah. Wild how old Biden is and also that Sanders was two years older. Democrats were truly on that old man poo poo this year, more than usual. Biden and Sanders: literally too old to call them Boomers.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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PeterCat posted:

What are your thoughts on all these people cheering the victory of an evil man winning the presidency?

You know how when someone's stuck down a 30 foot pit and about to die, and they make the leap to a handhold so they're only 20 feet deep and about to die? Those people usually are pretty pumped they made that small leap too.

Sure, there is a demo who will happily die on the ledge 20 feet down, but w/e don't accuse everyone who disliked Trump of being that person.

E: I do think it would be darkly funny if some soldier like.. escaped through enemy fire to cover to rejoin his fireteam and was like "gently caress yeah, thanks guy" and someone else cheers and then one of the squadmates turns stone-faced and says "we have no long term plan to end this conflict, so I'm not sure why you're so happy that you're no longer pinned down in the treeline over there"

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Q anon - we’re all trying to find the guy who touched kids!

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Defenestrategy posted:

*as if that chant will sooth you as you die of environmental collapse

List of 2020 candidates who could have or would have controlled climate change:

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Defenestrategy posted:

I'm not the one chanting 'gently caress Trump' every time someone basically offers a slam or critique against the Biden Ticket. As if the correct option wasn't somehow launching Trump into the sun, pence to jail, Kamala to the middle of an ocean, and Biden to a retirement villa in Florida or some such.

We could have all come together to do that instead you know.

I think you miss my meaning in two ways:

1. Even the best candidate for climate change on Earth would never have won. Sucks.

2. Even the best candidate for climate change on Earth knows we cannot fix it, only hope to somewhat mitigate the coming shitshow.

Climate change is that primo doomscrolling. Makes elections and economics look cheerful by comparison. And it’s very near term, not some philosophical heat-death of universe thinking.

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mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

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Soylent Pudding posted:

The trend across the various progressive spaces I'm in is that the greater percentage BIPOC or LGBTQ+ the space the more genuinely ecstatic they are right now. A community leader I'm friends with just posted a whole thing roughly paraphrased as "BIPOC organizers just kicked a fascist out of the White House and now a bunch of white male leftists are telling us that ain't good enough so we don't deserve to be happy about it."

Sure. Wanna knock a multimillionaire #Resist celebrity down a peg over their love of captialsim and exploitative behavior? Go hog wild!

Wanna piss in Georgian or Pennsylvanian community organizers’ Cheerios because we don’t have full socialism and the candidate you wanted? Tiresome whining.

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