Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Good guys appear to be winning in Texas.

https://twitter.com/ErnestScheyder/status/1323311106539085824?s=19

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Donnie's having a public sad again

https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/1323314972676509696?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Judge sounds annoyed, if anything.

https://twitter.com/ErnestScheyder/status/1323316807755771908?s=19

https://twitter.com/ErnestScheyder/status/1323318531807678465?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
For big cases, you generally want to pick a client so unimpeachable that it makes your case look that much better.

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1323321516143091713?s=19

That'll do.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

MazelTovCocktail posted:

For those interested

Ick, they shouldn't have sent that out. The line's been absolutely swamped and is basically crashing off/on. Court reporters couldn't get a read on the first 15 minutes or so because the federal court phone system wasn't ready.

https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1323324747694907395

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Donnie knows the law's coming.

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1323356482184736769?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
GET hosed

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1323360824753270785

https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1323361529694167040

Texas case is over. They have no standing and he would've ruled against them anyways.

Good guys won.

facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Nov 2, 2020

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Doc Hawkins posted:

not much thanks to the judge, apparently

from everything he said in the court he reeeeeally wanted to throw out "illegal votes."

i call that a free preview of the next few weeks, and also probably the rest of our lives

*Not* a defense of the judge, but judges say a lot of poo poo during hearings to explore arguments and poo poo like that. This particular judge is a rampaging bag of dicks, but I *am* surprised that he still allowed the drive-thrus to still operate. I was expecting the votes to count, but a bullshit split-the-baby closure of those sites for election day.

The fact that there even was a hearing is bullshit enough and you're probably right about the nonsense judicial Republicans will come up to calvinball bullshit going forward.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
And scene.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1323509311432216576?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
227 people through in three hours - ZERO problems. Like not even a fuckin partisan poll inspector.

Quite a few people turning in absentee ballots because they "don't trust them".

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Had a woman come in, late-middle aged, that did a slight goof on her pre-registration form (filled out the wrong side). Caught it, then she started crying behind her mask because her ex-husband told her that because of the divorce, she wouldn't be allowed to vote. Got her calmed quick when we checked her ID, she was in the system, guided her through the form, and issued her the ballot.

She was quite adamant that she ONLY wanted to vote for president. I don't think she was a Trump voter.

And the ex-husband is a fucker. She's going to stick in my head for a while.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Arven posted:

Got inside and found out that because I registered for vote by mail for the primary, they automatically sent me one for the general even though I didn't request it. Had to go home and dig to the bottom of my shred pile to find it, got back and had to cast a provisional ballot anyway. So much for voting on election day!

My procedure is that if you got an absentee ballot or requested it, our system flags it immediately and we call city hall to invalidate your old one. Then, you get issued a new one once city hall spoils your mailed one. We need a simple affidavit and you're done! 20-ish of 295 so far had to do that, with 15ish that brought in their old one. My guess is that it was Donnie's bullshit doing its work, so people were like gently caress THIS, I WANNA FEED THE MACHINE MY BALLOT.

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Can you report him to the AG’s office for voter intimidation? I know he probably wouldn’t get charged, but him getting interviewed would probably loosen his bowels just a little bit, and it would be a good start.

It was just her, so the guy wasn't there or anything.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Uhhhhh this sounds odd

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1323681953896419328?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Jaguars! posted:

Best of luck for your election, please stay safe and unceremoniously turf that sack of poo poo out :911:

The November surprise is that there are no real problems. As it turns out, when city/county clerks are left to do their thing properly, the actual election machinery becomes incredibly boring and functions fine. The worst you'll get is a line, and the line is drastically smaller compared to the past due to absentee/early voting.

Chucklefucks either decide to not show up, or the precleared chucklefucks get incredibly bored at looking at nothing inside the polling places. All you ever hear is that the election workers are "nice and helpful" and poo poo just rolls by smooth, with some goofy/minor problems.

Plane circling Philly:

https://twitter.com/_travishughes/status/1323672054621753345?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
So if we ever have elections again, I highly recommend being a poll worker / election inspector. I'd be a fuckin ball of hate right now if I was home refreshing twitter every five seCAT

https://twitter.com/reuterspictures/status/1323712382569504771?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Want to know how smooth the election process is going?

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1323719840474058752?s=19

Florida just called it boring.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Remember, voters are weird:

https://twitter.com/lautarogrinspan/status/1323755675881742340?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

Pinellas County Florida looks like it’s flipping Biden. 55-42 with 75% of the vote in. He won by 6% in 2016. The entire state is close without Broward or Dade tallied.

Florida ain't good. Miami-Dade early vote was hot garbo, and Donnie got a lot more votes there than 2016. Looking like an early repeat of 2018 where Florida freaks everyone out and we're waiting on everything else.

Consume your beverages and/or illicit substances if you need calm :)

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Oh and PA results aren’t expected until Friday.

I’m having trouble understanding why Trump is doing so well in Florida...did he promise to invade Cuba or something?

Florida's Hispanic population is very weird and not like Hispanics/Latinos outside of Florida. It's a freedom thing.

https://twitter.com/abenedikt/status/1323786668323819521?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

They haven’t counted vbm in Dade, just in person early voting. He’s also out preforming everywhere else and had a 2% lead according to Reuters. Florida is a garbage state but it doesn’t seem like it’s over.

Don't think so. The numbers point to all of the early vote being counted in Miami-Dade, apparently the "no VBM counted" claim came from a CNN idiot.

Literally no other trouble signs other than Florida poo poo.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Just ignore Wolf Blitzer. He doesn't know poo poo about poo poo and he's the entertainment anchor guy.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

MazelTovCocktail posted:

Also who is this place that just called Florida for Trump?


Decision Desk is quite good, you can trust them.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Pine Cone Jones posted:

Ah, so my pessimism may be right and I can rid myself of any hope, excellent

No, that's what the Trafalgar guy is saying and you shouldn't listen to it. Trafalgar is a *bad* pollster and they're looking for future money by biasing their results to Republicans. They were doing *constant* nonscientific poo poo with their samples.

The idea is to be "right" if Republicans end up winning, then get hired by all the Republicans to do polls. The idea isn't to be right.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

TCD posted:

Yup, Biden needed some decisive flips in NC, FL, PA, MI, WI, and OH.

FL is basically called for Trump, and both MI and WI don't look good. While Biden is up a few in NC, it's nowhere near a blowout.

Not quite right - to end this thing quick, Biden needed decisive wins in NC, FL, OH, GA, or TX. FL isn't happening. The rest are nail-biters.

WI/MI/PA aren't in yet. MI is reporting nothing but election day vote (republican heavy), but mail-in vote (heavily democratic) is still out and will be for most of the week.

OH being close bodes well for PA - Ohio is basically Pennsylvania with +6% Republicans. Ohio being close probably means that WI/MI/PA are probably good.

And we don't know about Arizona yet, with an outside chance of Nevada flipping weird. We only really know that Southeastern Latinos/Hispanics got Trumpy in a hurry.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Bored As gently caress posted:

Anyone else having crippling anxiety and heartburn?

Yep, that's me. Working the election delayed it for a very long time, but it's here. I really need to stop looking at poo poo, and we all should, really. It's really way too early, but tell my stomach that.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
:siren: VERY GOOD NEWS HERE :siren:

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1323842945368338434

NE-02 is likely Biden and I haven't heard anything changing that, so MI/WI/NE-02 gets him 270. PA ends it and is a bonus.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Note that Fox News is kind of on a limb, and McSally is complaining about it. But, they have a good decision desk.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Looks like more good news!

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323849023216865282

This is one of the electoral votes that would put Biden at 270, if he takes WI/MI, loses PA, and AZ holds where it is. NE-02 would give him 271, which is expected.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Duzzy Funlop posted:

But isn't that the issue?
Didn't Trump want to just "call it" if he gets close and then use the courts to stop the counting or something, idk?

I'm gonna drive up to my parents to switch to my winter tires, and then back to Munich, so I'm giving myself 5-6 hours of respite from this shitshow.

It doesn't really work that way.

If the state has possession of the ballot, whether by mail absentee or in-person voting, it counts, period, the end. Donnie can't do poo poo about it. This is what has everyone freaked the gently caress out if Donnie tries to attack them - but he has no legal standing on it. Like literally zero. It's not a thing and won't happen.

Several states have laws that mail ballots postmarked on election day (in other words, in the mail system), count if they get there within 3-7 days. Donnie is trying to gently caress with that, but he's not getting anywhere when it's written into state law. He's had success when it's just a pandemic measure done by the state executive.

Several states also have procedures to "cure" mailed ballots - like ballots missing a secrecy sleeve, or a bad mismatched signature. Donnie's fighting that too and it's up in the air because it hasn't been hosed with before.

Right now, there's no "recount" to stop.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

It's a bullshit tweet.

https://twitter.com/LaurenBlanch12/status/1323861058973540353

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1323861333494784000

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

What the loving hell is going on

Here's the story on Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323860602687754240

Fox News's people took a look at the numbers and determined there's no way that election day and late mail vote can make up the margin. Nobody else wants to climb on the limb.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Fragrag posted:

I'm just waking up. How's it going

A big fuckin' who knows.

Georgia just went into toss-up territory because the votes outstanding are HEAVY democratic. Arizona got called by Fox News, but nobody else. Biden's carrying NE-02 and ME-02. All the other close toss-ups went Trump, including bad misses in Iowa/Ohio. Nevada seems fine, but not comfortably fine.

If Arizona holds, Biden needs two of WI/MI/PA. If he gets GA, he only needs one. WI/MI will be done in a day or two, PA will be done at the end of the week.

Smart projectors are still thinking it'll be a Biden win with a barely Republican senate, unless Alaska goes goofy.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Fragrag posted:

Thanks. And Nevada seems fine? I swear I saw it coloured red half an hour ago on The Guardian.

Trust in Jon Ralston.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323873952226136065

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323877954900922369

Biden's up 5 and will probably stay there. He's up 70k in Clark (Vegas), losing rurals by the usual 30k, but then picking up 15k in swing Washoe (Reno). Could change, but there's likely not enough vote out there, as Nevada is super-heavy on mail voting.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
So a status report since I can't quite sleep:

NV is a squeaker with Biden winning, but only has late mail-in vote left. Same deal for Arizona (AP also called it), but that's looking better.

GA is another nail biter, we're waiting on Atlanta's mail vote. Donnie's ahead, but NYT thinks it could be a Biden squeaker.

WI just flipped to Biden by very little, all that's apparently left is Green Bay absentees which are expected to be Biden-ish.

MI's posting absentees now and they're huge for Biden. He probably gets Michigan, but too early to tell, maybe Wednesday afternoon.

PA is way too early to figure out anything, it'll take all week.

Biden will get over 50% of the popular vote, most likely. I'm optimistic, but my stomach sure isn't :v:

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

SquirrelyPSU posted:

I appreciate this. I just woke up about a half hour ago and trying to find a good summary is like wading through mud.

WI is now basically done with a 20K Biden lead. drat near everything is in at this point except stragglers. Milwaukee's recent posting flipped it to Biden, then Kenosha County absentee results just cut Biden's deficit there to bring the lead to 20K.

MI is looking solid, Biden's posting hella crazy numbers in the absentee votes and those are in process. Donnie appears to be toast in Michigan:

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1323963930398597123?s=19

---THAT'S THE ELECTION AT THIS POINT---

There are two bonus states remaining GA and PA. Tomorrow we'll probably know GA, as it's all Atlanta absentee that needs to post. PA is going to take all week, but here's that status - Biden is down 600K before absentees are counted. Here's where they're going:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323958418177142792?s=19

It's one thing to be told and be prompted about the pandemic-induced red mirage / blue shift. It's quite another to live through it, in real-time, during a pandemic.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Force de Fappe posted:

What are the chances of Georgia flipping once absentees are counted?

NYT says 64% and they have very good data about what's outstanding out of Atlanta and a decent guess at the percentages. It will be loving close.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Platystemon posted:

Nate Cohn is paid a lot more than I am to look at stuff like that, but that seems simplistic.

With in‐person voting, we know that certain precincts report earlier than others, and it’s not random.

Is there no reason absentee ballots would have similar ordering effects?

If the remaining ballots favor Biden only 74% to 25%, he loses Pennsylvania.

All of the in-person Pennsylvania results are in already. Everything due-in is absentee. The absentee stuff doesn't follow the in-person voting trend because they're different groups of people. Nearly all Democrats voted absentee, nearly all Republicans voted in person.

Like at my precinct, at the end of the night, we hit a button to submit the numbers that voted in person at the precinct. That number gets posted to the state total immediately.

THEN the absentee ballots for that precinct start being counted, then are added to the precinct total after election day (where we are now). If those come back 3-to-1 like they were (Philly was like 15-1), Biden takes PA.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

TCD posted:

What's funny is marijuana seemed to do well at the ballot box.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/marijuana-legalization-2020-states/index.html

This was an easy give-me to the dems, but, Boomer+prosecutor.

The trouble with that take is that Florida easily passed 60% on a $15 minimum wage amendment, which Donnie literally trashed on stage, and it was a part of the Biden plan that he talked up every chance he could.

Also, Biden might clear a greater majority of the public than anyone in quite a long time. It's going to be a mess trying to untangle how much is policy-based and how much is personality-based. Like here's the shift map, try to find a pattern here:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323978574186110984?s=19

Also, they let him out of the newsroom and it's good news, as he's more or less my #1 guy on these things:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Wisconsin is done done. It's over.

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1324026497536004098?s=19

Nevada's probably fine

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324024174390603776?s=19

Michigan has Biden in the lead with still a ton of liberal city absentees to go

https://twitter.com/HeidiNBC/status/1324027465761697793?s=19

---BIDEN WINS HERE---

Georgia's loving close

https://twitter.com/wccubbison/status/1324029113292775427?s=19

Pennsylvania is trending good

https://twitter.com/julianrouth/status/1324030815769120768?s=19

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

MazelTovCocktail posted:

This is all very good, but let’s be blunt and honest, we’re having to recount and litigation city now.... where recounts and litigation are state of the art.

Even Republicans are like "ehhh, a WI recount isn't going to do anything". Better to go into a recount up than down.

Only other potential hang-up is that Arizona's outstanding vote totals are still a touch of a mystery.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply