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Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


I think dropping Biden in favor of Harris is doable and probably not the worst idea (tho I actually mostly think Biden has been pretty good), but if it's gonna happen it needs to happen now or everyone needs to shut up about it. Like this weekend or never. Trying to get anyone else on the ticket for president besides Harris seems like a disaster. The FT is reporting senior democrats etc. think Biden will be out by Monday, and if so, great, let's move on. The sooner someone starts reminding everyone how scary and insane Trump/Vance are the better, bonus points if they can promote a positive vision for the future that isn't just 'see those guys? they're nuts, we are still bad, but we aren't that bad'. Harris doesn't have much charisma and doesn't inspire a ton of love for sure, but she isn't a million years old, isn't Donald Trump, and isn't Joe Biden, and she would shred Trump in a debate.

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Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Yeah I'm not 100% sure it was the right decision, but there is relief in the decision being made and there being a path forward.

To quote Charles Dickens' Sam Weller, 'It’s over, and can’t be helped, and that’s one consolation, as they always says in Turkey, ven they cuts the wrong man’s head off.'

It seems like at least so far folks are mostly falling in line behind a Harris candidacy. She may not be the ideal candidate, but she's definitely sharp and doesn't appear senile.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns



I’ve always thought Harris was goofy and awkward and a weird speaker (without really listening to many of her speeches) but having seen a few more clips of her like the speech at the White House this morning and whatever cooking lesson someone posted somewhere, I’m not really sure where I got that impression. She seems like a decent enough, relatable speaker?

I’m very glad she’s going on the attack right out the gate.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


facialimpediment posted:

Ordinarily, it's an absolute waste of time for a democratic presidential candidate to spend a single minute in the state of Indiana.

https://x.com/franklinleonard/status/1815449131990872516?t=4dcaHuW91pMnq-BYTcTnPA&s=19

But activating a massive get-out-the voltron is time well spent. And keep the gently caress away from netanyahu unless it's in a private meeting (Thursday I believe for the VP).
If we just let historically African American sorority alumni run the world all our problems would disappear. Every Delta Sigma Theta I've ever known has been a rock solid, level-headed, charitable woman that gets poo poo done.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns



Wait I thought trump hated politically motivated lawfare???

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


orange juche posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbmlTaQyW5Y

There was apparently a GOP strategy meeting where the attendees were told in no uncertain terms to not attempt to be racist re: the Harris campaign. However they've collared the racism leopard, and they need to keep feeding them racist poo poo to keep the racism leopard from eating their faces.

It's gonna be real funny how racist they are even when they're actively trying to not be racist. Like 'black people will love trump because he's a criminal now too!' poo poo.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Mr. Nice! posted:

That conviction is likely to be overturned because part of the evidence used in trial was an official act that cannot be introduced at trial. There’s a reason his sentencing hearing was canceled.
Does that mean the conviction will be overturned, and if so mean he is safe from future prosecution for those crimes, or a mistrial gets declared? It’s a weird situation since the decision on immunity wasn’t made until after the evidence in question had already been presented and a verdict reached.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Stultus Maximus posted:

Yeah, it would be pretty awful if the US had a female leader, something no other country has ever successfully had.

Margaret Thatcher, famously walked all over by world leaders, definitely not an icon of the right, definitely not nicknamed 'the iron lady'.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Elviscat posted:

Man, that Walz guy sounds like a real good dude.

Yeah 25 years in the national guard, high school teacher and football coach, good midwest Lutheran, seems like a real salt of the earth guy who balances attacks against Harris of WEST COAST LIBERAL!! But turns out he's actually much further to the left than Harris, he just seems like the normal one! Beshear brings alot of those same qualities in terms of 'not a scary minority lady from the Democratic People's Republic of Kalifornia', as did Roy Cooper.

Shapiro is kind of the opposite to me. Actually more centrist than Walz (maybe not Beshear?) but doesn't come off as a normal guy in the way Walz/Beshear do and seems much more like a scary east coast liberal. He really reads 'politician' to me. Even though Beshear is just as much of of a career politician, he plays the normal guy a bit better.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


If a high school football coach doesn’t have a DUI, are they really a football coach?

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


hobbesmaster posted:

Is it the same for NG NCOs?

Por que no los dos?

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


I love Harris in the background watching Walz, there seems to be a like quiet sense of relief in her face like 'okay I think I did the right thing, this is gonna be fine.' I'm sure trying to make the VP decision over the past few days/weeks has been stressful af on top of the whole 'oops guess I'm running for president now.'

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Fragrag posted:

There is something very reassuring how after seeing the whole internet fawn over Walz, I checked this thread for a more level-headed take and it's pretty much the same attitude.

I mean Walz was a great pick, but to be a Debbie downer, this is exactly how the republicans felt going into their convention after Trump had been shot. This too shall pass. Once the republican nasty attack ads start rolling out and they get their poo poo more together, it’s not gonna look so rosy. The economy is still growing but it has definitely slowed down over the last few months, and even tho the rate of increase in inflation has flatlined, prices are still high and wages haven’t entirely caught up and it’s had a very really effect on people in fixed incomes. It’s likely still going to be a very close race, but having an enthusiastic base is super important and that’s a big change from three weeks ago. I think the democrats are genuinely excited for the first time since Obama, republicans continue to be angry and scared.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Soylent Pudding posted:

Bon Iver playing Battle Cry of Freedom at the Wisconsin rally: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF3yUlCajVs

I hope they keep using the song the rest of the campaign.
'Marching Song of the 1st Arkansas' is even better

CW: some archaic c.1863 language
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKss9jF2Yxw

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Cythereal posted:

...I did not have 'Republicans get racist against German-Americans because of the Democratic VP' on my bingo card.

https://twitter.com/KaiserBeamz/status/1821386323275784324

Genius idea to pick a fight with the single largest ethnic group in the US. 'German' is the most commonly claimed national ancestry in the US, with 17% of Americans claiming some German ancestry in 2012.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Stultus Maximus posted:

Listen to Walz talk to unions. He can talk to them at least as well as Biden used to:
https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1820829047330337123

"We won that race as a means to an end. It's not about winning races so you can bank political capital for the next race, you win races so you can burn the hell out of that political capital to improve people's lives" is apparently what I've been waiting to hear a politician say my entire life. That's what we need.

e: "I hear your members say this-'look, I'm just not into politics.' And fair, that's their opinion, but it's my opinion to respond back to em, 'Too drat bad! Politics is into you!'" is a great line too. Dude's a great speaker.

Kaiser Schnitzel fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Aug 9, 2024

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


stealie72 posted:

Unions are in an. . . interesting place right now. Their leadership obviously knows what party will at least make mouth noises about helping workers, while their rank and file is so caught up in panic about who they might be pissing next to that they've gone chud.

As an example in practice, the Mahoning Valley around Youngstown Ohio used to be union as gently caress and a democratic stronghold (coincidentally it gave us Jim Traficant, a blue collar Trump a generation before Trump rode down the escalator). Trump managed to flip it in 2016 and 2020.

In 2016 it was on the back of then-candidate Trump promising to make a deal with the UAW and GM that would keep GM's Lordstown plant open through some obvious scam deal where GM would sublet the plant to an electric pickup manufacturer. This was a plant that the Obama administration kept running because it made the Cruze, which was one of the more popular cash for clunkers cars. It was also just about the last place for a good union job in the Youngstown area.

Surprise of surprises, President Business Deals deal kept only a handful of jobs, didn't result in a single truck and the C-suite ran away with the money before selling the plant to noted paragon of worker's rights Foxconn, who was totally going to hire hundreds of workers---but still has not.

All of this was obvious by 2020, but the now-unemployed former union workers still turned out for the cheeto goblin. The plant still sits empty today, btw.


TL;DR: Trump made a bullshit deal that allowed the last good union jobs in a community to disappear, and the unemployed auto workers are flying his flags anyway. Because Trump hates gays too.
Another way alot of those folks could be interpreting/reacting to events is 'we stuck with the union and the democrats for forever and look what it got us-the plant's closed, there are no more jobs.' I don't think that's entirely a correct interpretation, and it blames the union/democrats for larger forces like outsourcing/offshoring/moving production to lower-cost southern states/automation that arguably are beyond their control (we won't get into how much blame to lay on the Democratic party for offshoring etc.), but the end result is still 'we, working class people are markedly worse off than we were 10 years ago and Trump acknowledges and panders to our sense of grievance.' Add in some culture war bullshit and it has worked so far, but I don't think it's entirely fair to blame it entirely on 'these people are bigoted'

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


facialimpediment posted:

The UAW gets how you need to react to these things, if just for PR purposes:

https://x.com/UAW/status/1823361230167257114?t=rRv1KitVl9P338SDjFqybw&s=19

https://x.com/UAW/status/1823361235460465003?t=1K0aje5-V2MR39Zr_ra7Og&s=19

And a retweet of one of Bernie's policy advisors:
Them both laughing about firing a bunch of workers and massively disrupting the lives of a whole lot of working families simply because the workers wanted to better their lot (might we even say...they were trying to pull themselves up by their bootstraps??) was one the most sinister evil billionaire things I've ever heard, and I hope the Harris campaign blasts it non-stop till election day.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Zamujasa posted:

(image from tweet)


im the tiny house :grovertoot:

Love the optics of trying to relate to normal americans about high grocery prices in front of your mansion

e: lol with the giant front door open letting all the AC out just to show off his american flag collection

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Grip it and rip it posted:

Hmmm I've been reading a bit of news from different sources about the threat of a looming recession :( The timing of this couldn't possibly be worse.
People have been talking about the threat of a recession since like 2020/2021 (or hell, like 2014), and especially since interest rates were raised so high to fight inflation. There was always a fear that economy would make a 'hard landing' post-interest rate hikes, it seems rn like we're more likely to make a 'soft landing' where the slightly overheated COVID-stimulus economy cools off to a more normal level instead of crashing hard and then bouncing back to normal. Economists/markets have been in a pessimistic mood lately, but the numbers are mostly still pretty decent. Jobs numbers aren't as great as earlier in the year but have consistently been decent and better than expected, 2nd quarter GDP growth was revised up a bit and is a healthy ~3%, the rate of inflation is back at a pretty normal (also ~3%) level, consumer confidence is up in August, stock markets are doin fine, and the fed is likely to start lowering interest rates soon. That's all basically good or normal news.

The bad news is that wages still haven't entirely caught up to make up for the price increases-especially in consumer goods and groceries-of the past year or three, so alot of normal people feel poorer (and in purchasing power/real terms, they are even, oftentimes even if they have gotten a raise). Anyone on a fixed income or lower-wage job that spends most of their income on necessities like food and rent and gas is hurting. Their dollars just aren't going as far. That all certainly effects middle-class households too, but there the issue is also that buying a house is stupidly expensive in alot of the country and that's not made any less painful by mortgage interest rates being pretty high.

Basically 'the economy' is probably doing okay, but it doesn't feel that way to alot of people. Wages are still growing, unemployment is still low, some grocery prices do seem to be going down a bit, as are mortgage rates, and generally things are trending back to whatever 'normal' is, but there is still kind of a grey cloud hanging over how people (normal people and economists/markets) all feel about.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Grip it and rip it posted:

https://archive.ph/oyct2

This is the article that really got me to thinking about it. The headline reminded me of the joke about wearing the "not a murderer" shirt or whatever.
If you read that article and your takeaway was 'a recession is looming enough to effect the election' then you didn't understand that article very well. It's point was that while several indicators that people point to when trying to predict recessions (which is a very hard thing to do) are doing things that in the past have tended to point towards recessions, for many reasons largely related to the post-covid recovery, they are likely not great indicators to use right now. Yes, many of those numbers are kind of out of whack right now in a way that in the past has looked recessiony, but in this case they are probably out of whack for other reasons.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


facialimpediment posted:

Kamala's campaign appears to have hit a snag that I don't recall another campaign ever having to deal with before: too much loving money

https://x.com/michaelscherer/status/1830954782028357702?t=k5F0oGcNUs4Fk0PP63NPxg&s=19
I thought (and maybe this was a month or three ago, 2024 goes too fast and yet too slow) the Trump campaign's problem was that they had a decent war chest they just weren't spending any of it?

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Crab Dad posted:

He’s a small child being told by a friend about racial slurs that sound innocent if you didn’t know the background.

Yeah I was gonna say, in plenty of areas in the South saying 'that's a *wink* democrat *wink* part of town' is another way to say 'that's a majority black area (so don't go there or obviously you'll get robbed/murdered/etc)' without sounding quite as racist to outsiders. Calling it the 'democrat party' is definitely an allusion to the idea that only black people in the South vote for democrats.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


There are so many contradictions in trump's 'policies' about illegal immigration. On the one hand, he's gonna bring down grocery prices, housing prices, and childcare costs. On the other hand, he's gonna deport millions of illegals, many- if not most-of whom work in agriculture/food processing, construction, and childcare. Somehow this will not raise costs in those areas.

No I will not be taking questions.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Stultus Maximus posted:

I teach high school and most of my kids would find this petty and pathetic.

I only had to see a picture of loomer to know she was crazy but yeah goin full insane middle school girl on her is a new level of nuts.

Can some explain to me what ‘the Arby’s in your pants’ means? It sounds like a sick burn, but idk what it’s trying to imply.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Kazinsal posted:

She's implying that MTG has a large outer labia.

GOP infighting is wild.

Welp, wish I hadn't asked.

These people are real obsessed with genitals

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


He also spoke with/was interviewed by the Financial Times:


Seems to have been good at getting major publications to talk to him.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Hyrax Attack! posted:

Have wondered what would happen if a Deep South state like Alabama or Mississippi had enough unlikely events happen where the state government was set to become majority Black democrats. Guessing whatever steps they could think of to cling to power including abolishing the legislature/governorship or trying to merge with a neighboring state, anything to prevent the last several decades of records from being closely reviewed.

They had that on a smaller scale in Arizona when new Democrat governor found while they may have laws on the books about large developments needing adequate water sourcing they weren’t being enforced so many projects got canceled.
I think the reason there is more movement towards election fuckery in Georgia vs. AL or MS is that in Georgia it actually matters. AL/MS don't need to gently caress around with the elections because the elections are pretty much always 'republicans control everything.' While they both have large Black minorities, it's like 25% in Alabama and 35% in MS-they are still very much the minority except in some cities and the Mississippi Delta and Alabama Black Belt where there are a few minority-majority counties.

Kaiser Schnitzel fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Sep 20, 2024

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


fknlo posted:

I don't think that Harris is going to win any true red states, but something definitely feels different this cycle. I'm seeing way less overt Trump stuff and have personally seen Harris signs in places I didn't expect. Very anecdotal and all, but it feels like there's been a shift of some of his support.
I think alot of old-line republicans have had enough of the crazy. Anecdotal evidence isn't and all, but my dad has finally given up on Trump. He's 72, lived in Alabama his whole life, educated, practicing Catholic, works in banking, reads the WSJ (but not the editorials) voted straight ticket Republican since 1972 except to vote for Doug Jones for senate instead of insane Roy Moore. Thought George W was the best, couldn't stand Obama. Thought Trump tarrifs were stupid, thought his handling of COVID was terrible, still voted for him in 2020. On J6 I remember his first reaction being 'I didn't vote for this' and then having the realization that, 'oh wait, maybe this actually is what I voted for.' I thought that had finally broken the spell and it did briefly. Until a few months ago thought he was very much "well I live in Alabama, my vote doesn't matter anyway so who cares if I vote for Trump," but he's finally come around and said he's not voting for Trump again. I imagine he'll leave it blank or maybe vote Libertarian or something instead of voting for Harris, but hey it's better than voting for Donny from Queens.

Several other members of his upper-middle class Alabama family are the same-still voting for downballot R's but can't stand Trump.

E: several of my under 40 cousins there have had the same swing. All went to college but run the gamut from doctors and lawyers to public school teachers and foresters, and they all voted trump in 2020 but I don't think they will this time. They're far from liberal, but all the culture war stuff that plays well 75 year olds just backfires on them, from immigration to LGBTQ to abortion stuff. They're mad at biden for inflation want lower taxes and hate a welfare queen and they sure aren't voting for Harris, but they just want trump to go away.

Kaiser Schnitzel fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Sep 29, 2024

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Steven cheung's ability to spout vitriol at the drop of a hat is pretty impressive.

I'm glad I'm not that bitter.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Stultus Maximus posted:

Marines are far Trumpier than the other branches.
They are also the youngest, most heavily male, whitest, and least educated branch, and those last three at least are real strong predictors of trumpiness. This doesn't break out Hispanic whites/non-Hispanic whites tho, and I imagine that would change those numbers quite a bit.

e: it actually does break out Hispanic/Latino! If we subtract that number entirely from 'white' (probably not entirely accurate) the marines are still the whitest by a few percentage points, and are also the most Hispanic/Latino.

Kaiser Schnitzel fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Oct 13, 2024

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Soylent Pudding posted:

In line for coffee this morning I heard two dudes talking about how Harris is too deferential to the "lunatic left" and she needs to prove she's less racist than Trump by unequivocally coming out in support of Israel and Ukraine before they'd consider voting in this election.

I assume this is the demographic Joe Rogan reaches.

The Joe Rogan demographic mostly thinks we are doing way too much for Ukraine IME, but I'm glad those dudes at the coffee shop were in support of Ukraine.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

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Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Did you know that you can input any old nonsense information into Elon Musk's stupid PAC pledge petition form? It'd sure be sad if the data harvest there got tainted.

I feel like the Musk million dollar definitely not a vote-buying scheme is just gonna backfire-it's really gross to middle of the road normies. Usually the evil foreign billionaires influence elections quietly, doing it so brazenly and especially with is being so public and such a bizarre and disliked figure like Musk is not gonna win any friends.

And it makes the Trump campaign look really desperate if the only way they can get people to vote for them is by paying them a million bucks.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Crab Dad posted:

He pulled her hand down to force her to come in for a kiss. Gross and awful but I don’t think he was trying to force her hand on his wee mushroom.

It did look like an oft-practiced move though.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Just nationalize SpaceX and let elon have all the fun he wants with his exploding cars and dictator pals.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Handsome Ralph posted:

This is my thinking as well. My MiL is a 70 year old boomer who didn't vote for Dem candidates till Biden in '20. She was meh about voting for him again and then Dobbs happened. She's been pretty enthusiastic about voting for Harris and Walz.

Anecdotal and all that, but I really think some people aren't taking into account that older boomer women remember what life was like before Roe, and do not want to see a return to that for their kids/grandkids sakes.

Regardless, I'm still nervous as gently caress and not allowing myself to get hopeful. Just been going on lots of long runs and doing other productive stuff to try to stave off the anxiety.
Similar with my mom, but it was Trump's handling of Covid/BLM/and antivaxxers that turned her in a year from a lifelong small-government republican to 'these people are nuts and I'm never voting for them again.' She's even convinced my dad who's voted straight ticket republican all his life to not vote for Trump even if he can't bring himself to vote for Harris. I think for a long time with folks like my parents the republicans had the (undeserved, or at least very outdated) reputation of being the stable, sensible, responsible, competent adults in the room but Trump and the current MAGA crazies have blown that illusion away big time.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


Ronwayne posted:

I wish there was some kind of angle to work with my folks. Dad is just a jackboot who was so disgusted with 70's NYC and think that's what democrats want to turn everything into and freelance polices calling in sighting of migrants in to the border patrol. He's also one of those scumbags who experiences sincere joy when someone is upset with them but can't do anything but fume. Mom rattles off stupid stories of our family in the old west and early 20th century and freaks the gently caress out when fox tells her about how they're cutting off baby dicks before aborting them or whatever.

They think they're frontier settlers in cooperation with federal ultraviolence keeping their homestead secure and they're not ashamed of it.

My parents luckily never went down the fox news rabbithole. My mom watches the local news (probably not much better) and my dad is a Wall Street Journal republican (but doesn't read the editorials).

My great uncle was a super smart, kind, well-educated and travelled, broad-minded and tolerant guy but his wife and then him both got sucked into the fox news cinematic universe and there was no arguing with it. I remember a great Roy Blount Jr line from the bush years to the effect of 'different people hold different truths to be self-evident' and if you don't accept the same reality as someone else, it is really difficult to have a reasonable discussion with them.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

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Handsome Ralph posted:

I'm willing to pay for good journalism, even when I don't agree with every single take they publish, but the Post has gone to absolute poo poo in the last 3-4 years. This summer was the tipping point for me, I imagine the non endorsement was it for a lot of other people.
I don't agree with their politics/editorials nearly as much as I used to, but The Economist's reporting is still really solid, and unlike every American newspaper, they are very good at keeping their editorializing separate from their reporting. It's also a much more global perspective, and being only weekly alot of the noise gets filtered and only the actual important things get reported instead of 'what's the news cycle today'. It's a bit expensive, but I also really like The Financial Times. Good, cut and dry reporting, and they've really had alot of scoops the past few years on a things. Obviously very business focused and lots of articles on XYZ's new CEO or whatever, but also good news. The FT Alphaville blog is also great and I think free? It certainly used to be.

Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

Schnitzel mit uns


This MSG rally is completely insane and unhinged and trump hasn't even talked yet.

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Kaiser Schnitzel
Mar 28, 2006

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facialimpediment posted:

word's out

https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/1850653804066210023

NYT in their liveblog even called it outright racist, which is somewhat shocking

and any republican in any close election will probably be asked to respond to these, fun!

Maybe this is a new strategy to make Trump look sane and reasonable by only showing him in comparison with a bunch of even wackier wackos

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