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I don't think Trump is winning a 2024 Republican primary.
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Feb 14, 2021 19:34
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Raenir Salazar posted:I don't think Trump is winning a 2024 Republican primary. Who's even left to oppose him that the base doesn't hate, or is a Trumpist themselves?
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Feb 14, 2021 19:36
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Neo_Crimson posted:Who's even left to oppose him that the base doesn't hate, or is a Trumpist themselves? The Rock'll run on a platform of unity as a reasonable Republican and pull a ton of Independents/temporarily embarrassed Republicans, old wrestling/movie fans, and low interest casual voters. In short, it'll be noone you'd expect. Three years is too far out.
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Feb 14, 2021 19:39
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Oracle posted:The Rock'll run on a platform of unity as a reasonable Republican and pull a ton of Independents/temporarily embarrassed Republicans, old wrestling/movie fans, and low interest casual voters. The Rock endorsed Biden, so I doubt that'll work but who knows.
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Feb 14, 2021 19:41
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Neo_Crimson posted:Who's even left to oppose him that the base doesn't hate, or is a Trumpist themselves? A moot point; I doubt Trump will be physically capable of running in 2024.
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Feb 14, 2021 19:44
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Neo_Crimson posted:The Rock endorsed Biden, so I doubt that'll work but who knows. I could easily see The Rock getting a notion in his head that Biden's been too left wing and running as an "reasonable" Republican. I don't see that Rock winning a GOP primary though.
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Feb 14, 2021 20:00
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Neo_Crimson posted:Who's even left to oppose him that the base doesn't hate, or is a Trumpist themselves? I think the primary issue will be that he'll be (a) massively older and I can't imagine his health will still be holding up then (b) by all accounts he hated actually being President so I don't think he actually runs or runs seriously even if his ego forces him to make the attempt (c) the fact he lost is probably going to be the biggest issue. I think Trump endorses Hawley to run in his steed instead. But if Trump were to run I think the GOP finds someone to run against him and make it a two person race.
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Feb 14, 2021 20:05
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If Trump's still alive he's going to literally turn the GOP Primary into a reality show where every contestant is expected to fellate him for the next three years. Then he'll back Ivanka and turn against her inexplicably when he decides he wants to run sometime after the Nevada primary.
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Feb 14, 2021 20:09
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Grammarchist posted:If Trump's still alive he's going to literally turn the GOP Primary into a reality show where every contestant is expected to fellate him for the next three years. Then he'll back Ivanka and turn against her inexplicably when he decides he wants to run sometime after the Nevada primary. This right here. He's going to milk his endorsement for all its worth.
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Feb 14, 2021 20:14
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Raenir Salazar posted:I think the primary issue will be that he'll be (a) massively older and I can't imagine his health will still be holding up then (b) by all accounts he hated actually being President so I don't think he actually runs or runs seriously even if his ego forces him to make the attempt (c) the fact he lost is probably going to be the biggest issue. I think Trump's ego will make him back an empty suit who is unquestionably just his puppet, so hello 2024 republican nominee don jr.
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Feb 14, 2021 20:34
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One thing that's easy to forget with the primary is that Trump didn't win because he was the most Republican candidate in the field. He didn't win the primary by turning out all the white noncollege voters from the 2016 general election and 2020 either, those people don't really vote in primaries. If you divide Republican primary voters into "very conservative", "somewhat conservative", and "moderate", Trump was tied or a little behind Cruz in the very conservative group, and the same with Kasich/Rubio in the moderate group. He won by consistently getting about a third of the vote across all of the groups, and particularly by beating Cruz with voters who didn't identify as very conservative. I think in the 2016 primary that worked out for Trump because he was seen as relatively moderate and Cruz was the unelectable conservative movement candidate, but it's hard to say whether it'll be the same if he runs again. Are the 2016 primary voters who picked Trump as the moderate option over Cruz now MAGA enough to pick Hawley because he fought for Trump, or will they vote for whoever the 2024 equivalent of Mitt is (obviously not Mitt himself)? It's hard to imagine Trump losing the primary if he ran again, but I really don't know how his endorsement would work if he doesn't run. The obvious 2024 candidates running as Trump successors are the same kind of movement conservatives that couldn't stop Trump in the primary (and couldn't stop Romney or McCain either).
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Feb 14, 2021 20:52
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Yeah, it's hard to get into the 2016 headspace because it was 4 years ago and before the trauma of the Trump years, but Trump was almost perfectly branded to be everything to everyone. That was perfect for the Republican party, because they do have a load of very different people under their tent (or they did, I think a lot of them are just DUHHHH TRUUUUMP now or single-issue hateful racist shithead nazi voters). Now he's a known quantity, as a leader, but in 2016 the novelty was the same as like the movies where a dog learns baseball. Maybe he's really good at baseball? Maybe this is what baseball has been missing to make it better and more exciting? A third of any kind of person is willing to give that a go. Dogs can't play baseball and this one has rabies.
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Feb 14, 2021 20:56
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Grammarchist posted:If Trump's still alive he's going to literally turn the GOP Primary into a reality show where every contestant is expected to fellate him for the next three years. Then he'll back Ivanka and turn against her inexplicably when he decides he wants to run sometime after the Nevada primary. Seems the most likely. It's the least amount of work with the most amount of attention. Pick posted:Yeah, it's hard to get into the 2016 headspace because it was 4 years ago and before the trauma of the Trump years, but Trump was almost perfectly branded to be everything to everyone. That was perfect for the Republican party, because they do have a load of very different people under their tent (or they did, I think a lot of them are just DUHHHH TRUUUUMP now or single-issue hateful racist shithead nazi voters). It gets lost through the lens of 2021 Trump, but he was also considered more moderate than Hillary. He ran as an anti Wall St guy! It's an uncomfortable comparison but if I woke up from a coma and you told me the presidential winner of 2016 ran an anti Wall St, anti free trade, closed borders campaign while also saying he had a secret better healthcare plan I'd have though Bernie won
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Feb 14, 2021 21:07
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paternity suitor posted:It gets lost through the lens of 2021 Trump, but he was also considered more moderate than Hillary. He ran as an anti Wall St guy! It's an uncomfortable comparison but if I woke up from a coma and you told me the presidential winner of 2016 ran an anti Wall St, anti free trade, closed borders campaign while also saying he had a secret better healthcare plan I'd have though Bernie won And was vehemently anti-Iraq-War and said that 9/11 was Bush's fault. lol
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Feb 14, 2021 21:09
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DONALD THE DOVE
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Feb 14, 2021 21:15
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maybe he loves gay and transgender people even more than hillary 
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Feb 14, 2021 21:17
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Trump will pivot any day now!
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Feb 14, 2021 21:23
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paternity suitor posted:Seems the most likely. It's the least amount of work with the most amount of attention.
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Feb 14, 2021 21:51
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Neo_Crimson posted:Trump will pivot any day now! For the love of god, montressor, please outflank from the left 
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Feb 14, 2021 21:56
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Neo_Crimson posted:Who's even left to oppose him that the base doesn't hate, or is a Trumpist themselves? A lot of the big Trumpists really want to be the next Trump, so if he's still around to run again it will be interesting to see who falls in line and who tries to position themselves to run against him. Cicero posted:Wait, is Bernie for closed borders? That's an exaggeration, but he did campaign on not wanting to expand immigration and maybe modestly restrict some types. the holy poopacy fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Feb 14, 2021 |
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Feb 14, 2021 22:14
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The 2024 GOP nominee will definitely win the primary saying "Trump did nothing wrong", who cares what flavour of fascist the Mercers decide to pick for next cycle?
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Feb 14, 2021 22:18
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Cicero posted:Wait, is Bernie for closed borders? Bernie Sanders posted:Open borders? No, that's a Koch brothers proposal. But he's become more pro-immigration since he said that in 2015, and he was never a Trump-style xenophobe.
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Feb 14, 2021 22:21
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Cicero posted:Wait, is Bernie for closed borders? Not for closed borders, but also to not have an immigration system that is set up to be both cruel to immigrants and a wedge against domestic labor.
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Feb 14, 2021 22:37
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Seph posted:You're missing a big one: LOL Trump is never going to loving prison. Chist, even if he did, half the party would view him as a martyr and political prisoner who's being oppressed by the radical left wing deep state. Trumpism IS the party right now, even if he's just a symptom or a symbol of their beliefs and, like others have said, 3 years is forever in politics. I don't see a trend or a pattern where the things he represents are going to be shunned or work as a net negative for the GOP. Quite the opposite in fact.
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Feb 15, 2021 00:48
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DynamicSloth posted:The 2024 GOP nominee will definitely win the primary saying "Trump did nothing wrong", who cares what flavour of fascist the Mercers decide to pick for next cycle? The thing you have to remember about trump is that above all else he’s looking to make an easy buck. And by running he opens a floodgate of graft and donations so if he’s alive he’s running.
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Feb 15, 2021 01:24
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BiggerBoat posted:LOL Trump is never going to loving prison. Chist, even if he did, half the party would view him as a martyr and political prisoner who's being oppressed by the radical left wing deep state. Trumpism IS the party right now, even if he's just a symptom or a symbol of their beliefs and, like others have said, 3 years is forever in politics. Tell that to the SDNY and the state of Georgia.
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Feb 15, 2021 02:08
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Just curious, when was the last time a former US president was charged and sentenced to prison time which they had to serve?
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Feb 15, 2021 10:22
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Booourns posted:Just curious, when was the last time a former US president was charged and sentenced to prison time which they had to serve? Grant was arrested and jailed for speeding (he drove his horse-drawn carriage himself), then paid a fine. No president has been convicted of a crime out of office, but Spiro Agnew was charged for accepting corrupt kickback payments while VP. He took a plea deal specifically in exchange for avoiding prison; he paid a fine and was put on 3-year probation.
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Feb 15, 2021 10:34
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Booourns posted:Just curious, when was the last time a former US president was charged and sentenced to prison time which they had to serve? I'm not sure if it's prudent to compare Trump to past presidents since his crimes are not only much more extensive but also more brazen and public.
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Feb 15, 2021 23:39
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Straight White Shark posted:A lot of the big Trumpists really want to be the next Trump, so if he's still around to run again it will be interesting to see who falls in line and who tries to position themselves to run against him. My expectation is that if Trump runs again, the field will clear very quickly. Trump has proven (at least to the GOP) that there is a large swath of complete idiots that will show up for him and only him, and maybe burn down a few historical buildings and lynch a few people while they’re at it. Anyone who runs against him while trying to be Trumpy faces three challenges: 1) Trump’s always going to be better at appealing to those people. It doesn’t matter if he turns super senile in the next four years. Did you listen to any of his rallies in 2020? Any of the debates? He’s already incoherent and given to nonsense tangents and obvious lies, and his voters don’t care a whit because he already represents a tough-guy no-nonsense business-smart outsider and no amount of facts will dissuade them, let alone convince them that someone else is better. 2) You can't attack Trump without risking forever turning those people off to you (and then all your hopes of higher office go away). Look at how the state parties are condemning politicians that stepped out of line of the “election fraud” or the impeachment. Look at how cowardly the Senate responded to the idea of permanently defanging a guy holding no political office, with no campaign fund, and maybe a half-dozen friends in Congress. Even if you don’t get thrown out of the party for standing up to Trump, the GOP is actively acting like that’s the case, and who’s going to spend two years making deals and fundraising and visiting Iowa just to get shut out of everything for opposing Trump? 3) Q might decide you’re the actual baby eater and you get shot by a Proud Boy.
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Feb 16, 2021 00:30
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There's a new Morning Consult poll about Trump. The highlights are what you might expect: 1) Trump is back up to pre-riot levels of support among Republicans (though this may be affected by the fact that apparently thousands of Republicans left the party in the wake of the riot, meaning it's possible some of that return to pre-riot levels of support is affected by survivor bias rather than by people changing their minds--either way, people who leave the party don't get to vote in primaries)  2) Republicans have decided that Trump wasn't to blame for the riot after all, and other than the rioters themselves the number one people taking blame are Congressional Democrats and Joe Biden (again, survivor bias caveat, but imo the implication here is that Republicans continue to believe the election was stolen and blame Democrats for provoking a riot by stealing the election  Other interesting findings from the full poll results: Do you believe Donald Trump should play a major role in the Republican party, a minor role in the Republican party, or should he no longer play a role in the Republican Party? Major role/minor role/no role/DK or NR Registered voters: 25/10/54/12 Republican/Leans Republican: 57/17/18/7 do you believe the people who broke into the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., as Congress was certifying Electoral College votes for President-elect Joe Biden are: Supporters of President Trump/Opponents of President Trump/DK or NR Registered voters: 66/15/18 Republican/Lean Republican: 43/29/27 How responsible do you believe each of the following are for the events that led to a group of people attacking police and breaking into the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.? News media Very/somewhat/Not too/Not at all/DK or NR Registered voters: 22/27/17/22/12 Republican/Lean Republican: 40/33/9/9/8 Favorability for Donald Trump: Total favorable/Total unfavorable/No opinion Registered voters: 34/63/3 Republican/Lean Republican: 80/18/2
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Feb 16, 2021 17:33
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I do wonder how many moderates have fled the party post-riot. Otherwise this would look really bad and not make sense.
Grouchio fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Feb 16, 2021 |
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Feb 16, 2021 17:51
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Grouchio posted:I do wonder how many moderates have fled the party post-riot. Probably a lot. It's difficult to figure out what a moderate Republican is at this point.
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Feb 16, 2021 18:01
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Honestly, even him being at 80% approval among Republicans in that poll is a loss of support from usual. Also I wonder if you see some of that surviorship bias in the way the 'all voters' column for 'Trump was to blame' stays at 63-64% even as the GOP percentage drops?
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Feb 16, 2021 18:04
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Sodomy Hussein posted:Probably a lot. It's difficult to figure out what a moderate Republican is at this point. Were there "a lot" of moderates left on Jan 5, 2021?
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Feb 16, 2021 18:14
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Crosspost from USPOL:Paracaidas posted:Morris is the Economist's polling wonk, and has been good about posting digestible snippets on twitter (including during pollacolypse on election night):
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Feb 16, 2021 18:19
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They'll fall back in line.
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Feb 16, 2021 18:25
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Potato Salad posted:They'll fall back in line.
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Feb 16, 2021 18:30
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Grouchio posted:Treason and insurrection is not something most sensible people would 'fall back in line' over. (the sensibles being those moderates fleeing towards independent status en masse.) I think the big question is, even if they don't re-register as Republicans (which some of them might), do they keep voting straight-ticket R in future elections? Because if so, then the big thing their departure does is radicalize the Republican Party even more since the "moderates" are no longer primary voters.
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Feb 16, 2021 18:34
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vyelkin posted:I think the big question is, even if they don't re-register as Republicans (which some of them might), do they keep voting straight-ticket R in future elections? Because if so, then the big thing their departure does is radicalize the Republican Party even more since the "moderates" are no longer primary voters. Some will come back to the fold, some will be straight-R independents, and some will actually sit out if the base continues to nominate crazies. The last group is certain to be laughably small, but even chiseling off a couple % of Republican voters could be decisive in swing districts.
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Feb 16, 2021 18:40
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