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The possibility for Biden to pump out stimulus, distribute the vaccine and ride high growth to a strong 2022 election is so high that it almost paradoxically makes me more concerned, because the incentive for Republicans to screw things up is so high, either by withholding stimulus or spreading vaccine paranoia or whatever they choose to do. God drat are the special elections important. Despite the trends of recent midterms, 2022 is not predestined to be a bad election for Democrats. When we look at 2010, we need to remember that it wasn't just about backlash to Obamacare; U3 was still at 9.8%. The recession had been over for over a year but the economy was still terrible, and even though it wasn't reasonable to blame Democrats or Obama for it, considering the conditions when they took over, many people were still ready to lash out at any incumbent in their sights. I don't know if we're going to have a full-on feel-good Morning in America but it's likely going to be a hell of a lot closer to that than it will be to 2010.
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Nov 23, 2020 20:05
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| # ¿ Apr 24, 2024 05:59 |
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It's really amazing to watch the gender gap in voting just grow and grow and grow. It's not like men and women are physically segregated from each other like races or class groups have traditionally been, or socially like age groups. They still tend to pair up and live together and, presumably, be fond of each other. I wonder just how big the gap can get, and what the demographic traits of "split" households tend to be like.
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Dec 9, 2020 20:32
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We should also remember the polling in 2015/2016 that showed that a lot of people thought Trump was more moderate than most Republicans. They saw that he was way out in front on the "gently caress the libs" front, which they wanted, but he acted like he was against cutting the social safety net and perhaps wanted to expand it, and he said he would raise taxes on the rich. I think this faux-moderation was what allowed Trump to win the areas that Romney won in 2012 (like New England/the megalopolis). If we think about how he was perceived by Republicans in 2016, it might be more like how we look at Adam Schiff: ideologically opposed to the more extreme elements of his party, but fuckin' great at going after the opposing party. And a lot of people like that profile.
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Jan 7, 2021 21:12
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I remain in starry-eyed wonder that Joe Biden's approval/disapproval numbers on 538 are barely budging from 54-40. His numbers are even more stable than Trump's so far, and roughly the inverse of what Trump's approval numbers usually were. It's early but we are edging closer to 100 days. Trump's ratings had declined significantly by now, but Obama's were still roughly where they were when he took office.
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Apr 13, 2021 20:08
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paternity suitor posted:Nate seems like the kind of guy who gets really wrapped up in his work and takes zero care of his physical health Also part of it is hair loss at a young age, which is just kind of a bad break.
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Jul 13, 2021 21:15
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| # ¿ Apr 24, 2024 05:59 |
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The electorate contains potassium benzoate. ... That’s bad.
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Jul 31, 2021 16:19
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