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TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/19/raphael-warnock-georgia-republicans-438027

quote:

Georgia Senate airbender Raphael Warnock has made his faith a defining element of his candidacy. The GOP aims to make it his fatal flaw.

Republicans are taking to the airwaves and social media to frame the pastor as a radical and tool of the "extremist" left. Using sound bites from his past sermons, they’re making the case to Georgia voters that the Democrat is anti-police and anti-military. TV ads play up his criticisms of police officers and try to connect him to polarizing figures like Fidel Castro, who visited Harlem’s Abyssinian Baptist Church in 1995 while Warnock was a youth pastor there. Taking several pages out of the 2008 playbook, they’ve also tried to tie him to Jeremiah Wright, the former senior pastor of Trinity United Church of Chicago, whom Republicans used to try to sink Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

...

Will it land?: Warnock allies and those familiar with Georgia politics see the Republican playbook as an outgrowth of their appeals to the base — something they have to double down on without Trump atop their ticket to energize voters.

“It don’t resonate with people that really know Rev. Warnock,” said Tracey Thornhill, president of the Atlanta AFSCME chapter, during a Warnock press conference in Atlanta. “It resonates with people who probably were going to vote for Loeffler anyway.”

just attacking the religion of the guy who is the pastor at the same church as MLK Jr., why are all these dogs barking?

national GOP throwing $80 million in ads into the Georgia races already and they are doubling down on what we might politely call "base turnout".

"Twitter will hand @POTUS to Biden on Inauguration Day, even if Trump doesn’t concede"

wrap it up Trump, its over

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TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

It wasn't about whether she won but how she performed compared to the her district bias. Like if every other dem performed as poorly as Omar compared to Biden it would have been a historically famous wipeout. Noone here is congratulating Tommy Tuberville on his solid win - he's a total fool, and he underperformed Trump by 3 points. But he still won 60% cuz its Alabama.

Similarly we've had a lot of worried discussion about Biden's poor performance among groups that... he won handily. But he didn't win by enough much like Omar didn't win by enough.

TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 13:10 on Nov 25, 2020

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

We've already shown Omar's performance wasn't under performing or bad - it was actually quite good given the specific circumstances and those circumstances were not generally existant on the general outcome nationwide.

Wasserman is stating a bare fact. There are people who voted Joe Biden who did not vote Ilhan Omar, and in large numbers. Omar underperformed. Obviously there are reasons she underperformed...like...c'mon. But you're losing the plot when you take the unsupported leap towards 'and therefore she didn't underperform and Wasserman is wrong.' You are all twisted up about this and taking offence to pure number-hrmming.

to draw a parallel, this like saying "actually, Biden did fine in Zapata county. They only moved towards Trump by 30 points because they were desperate for someone to kickstart their natural gas extraction again. Those specific circumstances didn't exist elsewhere..." it's like sure, thats true, and other counties didn't move 30 points towards Trump. But Biden still definitely underperformed there.

And to flip things around: if Ilhan Omar had outperformed Joe Biden by 10 points, the whole forum would be shouting it from the mountaintops. How would you treat arguments that were specific circumstances to her district that this happened and Joe Biden didn't underperform there?

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

The truth of those Reversalists is that when push comes to shove they always support the guys loving the poor anyway. Witness the "Reluctant Trump Supporter" spokesman. They'd rather it wasn't the case, but whatever their reason for voting Republican, it's more important than their economic ideas.

And the base is more interested in MAGA and racism. Where's their in?

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

For years and years, certainly long predating trump, there's been a steady drip of stories of people on full disability just ranting viciously about welfare and taxes etc... so it doesn't surprise me per se.

I believe the disability bias reflects people who are at home in pain all day and they just watch fox news or have Limbaugh on 24/7. They fall down the rabbit hole. I wouldn't be surprised if there's high Q penetration there as well.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

Grouchio posted:

Is this physical disability or mental disability? The latter I would expect to be the polar opposite in poli-spectrum.

I don't recall it ever being stated explicitly, but at least some of the stories had a context of at minimum limited mobility.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

Aruan posted:

2013 and 2018-2019 government shutdowns (which hurt the GOP and forced them to cave).

Refusing to hear any cabinet nominees is a grenade. Why risk it blowing up in your face when you can get the same political ammunition by screaming about 2-3 nominees?

People don't really care about it, just how they don't really care about the filibuster. So it won't blow up in their face. It might contribute to a narrative of Republican obstructionism but conservatives have a propaganda network and liberals don't.

additionally, its not in the republicans political interest for Democrats to accomplish anything. the genius of the 'government is the problem' strategy is that you can be as incompetent or corrupt in office as you want and you are just proving your point...

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

Aruan posted:

why should we focus infrastructure and jobs programs in areas where only 20% of people live, instead of 80%?

To win 50 percent+1 elections, probably

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

Seph posted:

Has there ever been a situation where control of the trifecta rested on a single senator? That is an incredible amount of leverage that as far as I can tell has never happened at least in modern history. The closest thing I can think of is Joe Lieberman during the ACA demanding that Democrats drop the public option. But that was leverage just for a single bill - Collins could essentially control the entire political agenda for the first two years of Biden's administration with her single vote. That's got to be something she's at least considering.

The Washington state senate flipped because two senator voted R in exchange for becoming majority leader and president pro tempore... they managed to keep it up for 5 years. That was just in 2012, not ancient history.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

if I were Collins, or any other prospective swing vote.... there's a very real chance of violent attacks. With how worked up everyone is it cant be discounted.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

Trump would never go for a Senate seat. One Senator ain't poo poo. It doesn't fit his in-charge attitude. On the other hand, Floridians have proven they don't care how much of a fraudster their governors are...

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

I mean, really: Wow at still having 44% job approval after this disaster.

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TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

pretense is my co-pilot

I got a Rasmussen push poll earlier. I told them we should let millions of Afghan refugees into the country and that I agreed shadowy cabal of ministers and bureaucrats was controlling Bidens every move - and they were doing a great job!

Hung up when they asked me how much I spent on online retail recently. Preeeetty sure they're identifying phone #s to sell on fundraiser lists.

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