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emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
1919 expropriate the expropriators

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emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
oops wrong thread

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

soup. posted:

It's a truly emergent phenomenon of selfless, raging hatred, and it's being weaponized through spontaneous coordinated action by stakeholders in the financial markets.

There's a paper in this.

There's an entire spasming cumdump of theory in this.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Delta-Wye posted:

imagine four stocks on the edge of a cliff.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Serf posted:

malthusianism never really goes away huh

it's the logical outcome of bourgeois idealism.

oxsnard posted:

I'm saying they have less to lose as a percentage of their total wealth. *Obviously* it's about power as well, I'm just saying that with increases in productivity, there's less labor needed to maintain society as they desire. They have less motivation than ever. That's all

they are indeed lazy and stupid and, in our moment, have largely given up on maintaining anything but their fuckoff bunkers.

this silly memestonk thing is stupid and fun but nevertheless points to a raw, bare truth of the Now - everything is up for grabs. all that's lacking is the organization and the collective will capable of overcoming the nihilism we're all socialized into and bombarded with our entire lives.

which is obv hella missing and whatnot

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Ice Phisherman posted:

They're watching us shitpost and they are bored.

Hallo alphabet surveillance persons I would like to have your job plz

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

crepeface posted:

what does this have to do with number

whenever someone posts something without number everyone should ask where is number

here's some fackin number for ya



Figure 1. Estimate by Gail Tverberg of World Energy Consumption from 1820 to 2050. Amounts for earliest years based on estimates in Vaclav Smil’s book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 1965 to 2019. Energy consumption for 2020 is estimated to be 5% below that for 2019. Energy for years after 2020 is assumed to fall by 6.6% per year, so that the amount reaches a level similar to renewables only by 2050. Amounts shown include more use of local energy products (wood and animal dung) than BP includes.



Figure 2. Amounts shown in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison for earliest years and by 2019 United Nations population estimates for years to 2020. Future population estimated to be falling half as quickly as energy supply is falling in Figure 1. World population drops to 2.8 billion by 2050.

stonks are an imaginary relation to real conditions, motherfuckers can't even handle real number.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

DACK FAYDEN posted:

is there like a website where I can bet against this happening to the tune of "all the money in every account I have and maybe even some I don't", because goddamn yes climate change is happening but thinking more than half the people on Earth will drop dead in the next thirty years (and net zero babies beyond that) requires the perfect storm of climate, war, and plague

like literally I think if it drops that fast it will be sub-1b by 2050 because the only way that happens is a pandemic worse than the actual pandemic going on or a nuclear war

it's an analysis based on the declining EROEI of fossil fuels leading to declining energy inputs leading to mass death, it has almost nothing to do with covid or climate.

there's a whole blogosphere working off an energy based economic model - it ain't 'marxist' in the classical sense but it's still a pretty drat materialist model. they just move the basic unit of analysis from socially necessary labor time to energy inputs and crunch the numbers. it's all super doomy and blackpilled and like, this is actually the doomsday economics thread and not the gamestop gambling thread. you wanted number have some number thread.



https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/11/12/184-the-objective-economy-part-one/

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/11/23/185-the-objective-economy-part-two/

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/12/08/186-the-objective-economy-part-three/

emTme3 has issued a correction as of 11:24 on Jan 31, 2021

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

bird. posted:

while we *are* a little doomed i dont think this perspective carries much weight as her predictions are basically "we cant do anything without oil, which is running out" which yea we can -- dam up them rivers and emrich them uranium rods and use renewables to make up for any shortages in petro but just lmao if u dont think were not gonna get into runaway climate catastrophe before running out of petroleum

you are a bird that posts.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
a bird on a keyboard, posting

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

uncop posted:

The surplus energy stuff is cool but it's not really economics, it's anti-economics. The energy system there isn't the economy, it's another system underlying the economy that forms a set of constraints that can be used to predict the downfall and end of the economy as such. The economy is a social system with social laws, while this is a physical-chemical system with entirely different laws, and those laws are in sharp contradiction.

I think the coolest part of those posts is showing how the economy forces itself on societies through this energy cost of energy principle. Those with a high energy cost of energy have to play by the rules of those with a low energy cost of energy, because both market relations and force relations go in favor of the latter.

Or maybe the coolest part is in showing how energy cost of energy limits the profit margins of industry in general, and how its rise contributed to this bullshit economy where it's more profitable to lend for consumption and flipping property.

The whole "money is a claim on energy" makes me tear out my hair though, like how can one say that? Inflation has no correlation with the ratio of money in circulation to the energy claimable in circulating commodities. This'd be so much cooler if they didn't try to derive economic logic from their energy system.

This is good post and very clarifying, thanks. It is a reductionist analysis - it realizes the hegemonic neoclassical paradigm is bullshit, but doesn't make the leap to historical materialism from there, instead flattening everything out into sheer thermodynamics. Still a useful exercise but needs a critical pass or two.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

ChristsDickWorship posted:

dream, if you can, a market
a ticker of stonks, all doomed
capital strikes ominous poses
they feel the heat
the heat between me and you

how can you just leave me hanging
alone in a world that's so cold?
maybe you're not understanding
maybe you're just a pathetic lib scold
maybe you're just here for tendies
you need to recognize
as long as we hodl each other
this is what it sounds like
when shorts cry

:glomp:

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Petey posted:

I read. I study and read. I bet I've read everything you've read. Don't think I haven't. I consume libraries. I wear out spines and ROM- drives. I do things like get in a taxi and say, "The library, and step on it."

But it transcends the mechanics. I'm not a machine. I feel and believe. I have opinions. Some of them are interesting. I could, if you'd let me, talk and talk. Let's talk about anything. I believe the influence of Kierkegaard on Camus is underestimated. I believe Dennis Gabor may very well have been the Antichrist. I believe Hobbes is just Rousseau in a dark mirror. I believe, with Hegel, that transcendence is absorption. I could interface you guys right under the table. I'm not just a creature, manufactured, conditioned, bred for a function.'

Are you having some difficulty making yourself understood?

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

NeonPunk posted:

The clearing house is completely in the whole scheme. They're just like the rating agencies from 2008.

Man tomorrow is gonna be a freaking wild ride

I am watching major motion picture 'The Big Short' (2015) and I have learned that money isn't real, the 'economy' runs on farts and confirmation bias, and capital always wins. So it's gonna be a week.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

commie kong posted:

another wsb drop.

trust the plan. hodl the line. gently caress the stats. Watch the fear.

just tremendous content.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

ffs

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
the bubble started with the end of bretton woods.

alternatively, the entire history of capitalism has been a bubble.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

dead gay comedy forums posted:

btw about pessimism, the farmers' uprising in India are probably among the largest protests in the entire History and Modi went full fash there

the farmers' are taking up resistance and it appears (from my very limited awareness of the matter) that the communists have been somewhat successful in earning trust and support from them as well as providing organization and assistance

those things are important to remember when you are feeling downbeat: you don't know what tomorrow will bring, you don't know what will happen. Remember that Marxist thought itself was a product of a time that believed that man should explain everything and perfect scientific knowledge was not only possible but attainable. This uprising in India might be successful in wildly different ways, it might not lead to anything at all. For real, I joke every now and then about the immortal science, but if you have the knack, that peculiarity for dooming, it might be a good idea to not throw that together with Marxism. Believing things are impossible due to material circumstances not allowing for the Ultimate History Ending Victory can rend some hearts apart and unfortunately, I've lost a couple of comrades around where I live who refused to believe otherwise

this is a realtalk carepost with much love, if you think it's garbage, again, feel free to disregard

Historicizing historical materialism is a good idea. Understanding that there is no necessity that led to the present state of affairs is supposed to lead to the realization that the future is always up for grabs, and therefore there is always hope.

It's just super hard to see any from any analysis of present conditions, is all.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Zeno-25 posted:

No? I how does that follow from incentivizing damage control wrt the carrying capacity of the planet?

Having kids makes people dumb lol

the planet doesn’t have a carrying capacity, but capitalism does. people are the solution, not the problem, you're a fascist.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

That stuff is fictional though.

fly away troll

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
we could still be in the timeline of god emperor trump and the imperium of man, you don't know

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

bideo james

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Joey Steel posted:

Basically one couple out of a big group of friends of mine were all "we're going to get married, but have girlfriends join the relationship if we both agree to it" that spiraled out to where the guy got more angry and eventually they divorced when they both started stepping out on each other. Ended up that he decided "gently caress it" took a rifle and did a house clear of everyone at one of the football parties we all used to go to. Shot everyone once to down them, then went through the house for headshots after people were incapacitated, with multiple shots to the face of some folks he was angry with at the time. Really broke the one military friend in the friend group, because that's where he got the idea from, I'm pretty sure. I wasn't at the party as I was working in another state at the time.

Trying to make a half dozen funerals in a weekend was... not fun. I still need to go lay flowers at one friend's memorial, but I can't get to it since the land around the graveyard was bought out and I'm not sure how to get to it without trespassing through the now industrial zone with locked fences. Kinda hard to do when I have to drive 5 hours to even try. I still remember when we had to sneak in the sister of the guy who killed everyone into the ex-wife's wake, since she and her were best friends.

:smith:

monogamy: the worst kind of relationship, except for all the others

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Admiral Ray posted:

the fundamental disconnect is you can't force the future to change. feudalism didn't shift into capitalism because of a concentrated group of people pushing for it, it happened because the plague killed over a third of all workers in Europe over a period of like 150 years, and the transition still took longer than that. capitalism isn't something you can shoot and be done with, it's an ex that humanity has to get over but just hasn't yet.

There definitely was a concentrated group of people pushing for it after a few accumulation cycles, and it took like 3 centuries.

The bourgeois revolutions were qualitatively different from the proletarian task - they lucked into a model unconsciously and then ran with it, we've been conscious of the necessity for a century and a half and have no model.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Gorman Thomas posted:

Girlfriend (loud, hot)

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

oxsnard posted:



last one before i have to go do real work, and this is my original thesis

the average of the slopes between M3-M7 (ORANGE) and M4-M8 (GREEN) is your conviction index (tm pending). The larger the absolute value of this number, the greater the likelyhood that the curve is dictated by contract roll. E.g. the curve is dictated by spot price and people rolling hedges as they expire. It's the natural order of the market. This number as it approaches zero indicates what I call "Conviction." Those hedges aren't passive, it's a good measurement that lots of money is being poured into hedges for a specific reason.

So a presidential election will cause an elevated level in the novemvber VIX contract. But in this case The zero slope indicates that there is big hedging going on but not around a specific event (e.g. election or interest rate decision or vaccine). They just think poo poo is about to hit the fan. So that slope is spot conviction. If the derivative of this slope is positive or negative, it shows that conviction is wavering or not strong. BUT, if that derivative or rate of change is zero, it indicates that the conviction is unwavering and likely to become real

idk what any of this means, but GME is going to da moon

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Epic High Five posted:

not sure why so many people are confused about how just one man was able to solve the problem of rent seekers and landlords, in a matter of a handful of years whereas dumbass liberals failed to given literal millennia

all of this is the natural state of the lord and serf relationship. you either destroy the lord utterly or you destroy the serf utterly, there is no middle path

that's what so confuzzling to liberals op. cuz truth is in the middle.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Vox Nihili posted:

Comfortably Number

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Rutibex posted:

capitalism tower is better than capitalism train
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlfooqeZcdY

this movie fukken slaps

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
the cold train movie is great - of course the premise is ridiculous, but the movie is just tight and fast paced enough for that to not matter. it's an allegory, not a loving documentary. if you roll with it the magical setting works perfectly.

the literalist American tv sitcom remake, otoh :suicide:

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Rutibex posted:

:psyduck:
they turned snowpiercier into a TV series? this is like capitalism eating itself then making GBS threads itself inside out and eating itself again


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lFMpmwn_hQ

with jennifer connelly! it's snowpiercer but like, both sides have good points and truth is somewhere in the middle and the revolution never really happens cuz the writers don't have the cojones to write a post-revolutionary scenario. as a setting for an interminable drama instead of a fast and brutal action movie the allegory doesn't work at loving all. it's not worth watching even if you like trainwrecks (heh).

emTme3 has issued a correction as of 02:04 on Apr 11, 2021

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
i will say that in the good ice train movie the allegory breaks down pretty hard towards the end. if you're gonna build a big ol self-sufficient arcology it makes absolutely zero sense to have it be a brutal class society. what you're aiming for is juche-as-train, not 'let's have a couple of rear cars where people eat babies and fester in revolutionary resentment'.

it's a bad planned society, that ice train. you can't replace train bits with babies.

still a great movie. i just want the juche-train sequel.

emTme3 has issued a correction as of 02:08 on Apr 11, 2021

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

WarEternal posted:

I have a lifelong crush on Jennifer Connelly

she's almost worth it. she makes every frame cum.

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Desiderata posted:

So this allegory for capitalism falls apart in the end because in a society with the capacity to feed and look after everyone why would you needlessly have a stratified class system anyway,

it's a closed, planned, no-growth arcology. material condition wise, it's as far from capitalism as you can get, but with the allegorical social relations stapled on top. the allegory fails because the conditions for capitalist social relations don't exist, on that cold train.

if you're lucky enough to be self-consciously planning an arcology, (with an infinite power source!) the first thing you ditch is capitalist social relations or anything like them. they require expanded accumulation cycles to exist in the first place, they're intrinsically unstable and come with antagonisms of interest, idk the list of cons is infinite and there are no pros.

emTme3 has issued a correction as of 12:21 on Apr 11, 2021

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Desiderata posted:

Imagine living on a self contained system full of people, with all that human ingenuity at our command, the ability to build machines to harness infinite power, and it is cold and unforgiving howling void outside. But then despite knowing this, still running things on human suffering anyway, despite all the pros of not doing that.

But then this is the silly world of icetrain, not a perfectly sensible mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

Edit: I'm probably still being too obtuse - You live on the planet earth. Spotting that the constructed society of the capitalism allegory train is self defeating as its resources cannot be infinite, is the exact opposite of finding a plot hole. You found the plot.

Edit 2 :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URo66iLNEZw

I'm not saying I found a plot hole, I'm saying the social relations and material relations of the train contradict each other in way that can't be, like, solved for.

I'm aware of the dramatic point of the allegory not fitting, but I'm being a stickler and pointing out that the movie is being lovely at political economy to make that point. and that there's a better, more interesting, will-never-be-made juchetrain movie that exists in the cracks and aporias of coldtrain's allegory.

e: now I'm watching a nerd talk about other nerds annihilation videos. also a good movie. movie chat is better than posting number jokes but worse than doomsday econ posts.

emTme3 has issued a correction as of 07:08 on Apr 12, 2021

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Jel Shaker posted:

the end of history will absolutely be gay space luxury communism, except the surviving human population can directly trace their genetics back to Mr Bezos, while the rest of us starved to death long ago

for rlz tho - if the boog manages to automate everything and kill off all proles... wouldn't that still be communism?

makes u think

:synpa:

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

quote:

Soviet-style, top-down planning remains a hallmark of China’s economic and political system. Five-Year Plans (FYP) continue to guide China’s economic policy by outlining the Chinese government’s priorities and signaling to central and local officials and industries the areas for future government support. The FYPs are followed by a cascade of sub-plans at the national, ministerial, provincial, and county level that attempt to translate these priorities into region- or industry-specific targets, policy strategies, and evaluation mechanisms

:flashfap:

emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit
realtalk CCP policy is a delicate balancing act between the two wings of the party (dengist/neoliberal and neomaoist) and the actual conditions, which feature both capitalist accumulation cycles and accompanying billionaires + a non-profit planned sector, and interfaces between the two. shits complicated af.

so you have to tolerate the emergence of a billionaire class unless you're prepared to roll out a fully decommodified digitally planned communism, which clearly they aren't cuz they haven't. that they haven't done this yet, well probably cuz it might lead to a civil war and nobody wants that except maybe america. if they become the global hegemon they will be in a much better position to actually try fancy new internet enabled communisms or whatever, so waiting for America to die is probably part of the long term plan.

i honestly think it might take another revolution to get there, but like, it's still a successful superpower that at least partially understands itself to be moving towards something not-capitalist. as long as that exists the communist horizon is still alive, however distant.

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emTme3
Nov 7, 2012

by Hand Knit

Petey posted:

the author eventually published a short academic article (https://share.getcloudapp.com/nOuoJz2m) totally stripped of the color and haunting implications of the original. but he wouldn't send me the original, just this draft of the academic piece. i had the original saved to pocket but it was in there long enough to no longer keep it and now that's gone too.

the original, in my memory, was about understanding contemporary markets as the expression of a nonhuman superintelligence that is already here — the basilisk already born, but still shapeless — driving the human species to self-extinction to clear the way for its own predominance

ya that's the gist of Land's stuff fwiw. it's a reification of capital itself as the motor of history and an emergent autonomous intelligence. Land is a hyper reactionary now, and like most historically aware reactionaries he sort of gets how the mode of production operates, but doesn't realize that capital, for all its dominance, is just a matrix of social relations reproducing itself. it doesn't have an existence of its own without the people who are doing it like, actually doing it.

an analysis sure, but insufficiently materialist, insufficiently dialectical, and morbidly antihumanist and exterminationist. I've seen Land's work described as the hegemonic ideology taken to its logical and maximally fascist conclusions, which is why he's worth reading. if you can read Land and pinpoint why and how he's wrong, you've successfully inoculated yourself against a whole swathe of lib/fash delusions.

if Nietzsche had actually read Marx, Land would be the result.

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