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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006





one used to be able to spot which Chinese flagged vessels had a political officer onboard by if a number of crew was out on deck downloading pornography with phone cards provided by the mission to seafarers.

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006





the first time I went to China on a ship as a cadet was just right as the first SARS was starting. When we were maneuvering in I got asked by the first AE : Cadet do you have any porn in your room? and I said no. when we got along sides Chinese customs did their thing and of course searched my room cause I was the cadet. after they left some vendors were allowed on board to sell knock offs. I got a nice Columbia two part jacket I used for almost a decade. most of the vendors spoke very little English.

they all asked for “penetration porno” anybody that came to buy anything, first order of business was “penetration porno”.

the communist party over there has weird issues with sex. so that’s probably what the “bigamy” thing is with Jack Ma.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




and oil thars oil in that artic.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Shear Modulus posted:

is it the tariffs

you know, the things that do exactly that

it’s also that international container shipping cartel’ed up and most of the big lines jointly reduced capacity to bring rates up in response to the Covid drop off. they had been caught up in nasty feedback loop that kept prices low for a long time.

absurdly cheap intl container freight was always going to end eventually. it would have been bad if there would have abrupt line failures, but eventually it would have been a similar state to what’s happened now.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




KirbyKhan posted:

Our boats can still remain competitive in the global market place without baring America Samoa from shipping their rice in from Asia. Losing the protection racket those shipping lanes represent is not going to be the death knell of American Drydock operations in this age of COVID.

Kinda moot tho, cuz lmao after another year of our poo poo CoVID responce ain't no boats coming here, only escape boats going out.

us to us ports. Jones Act deals with cabotage. if it’s us to us it’s Jones Act.

Asia to Samoa could be any flag. US mainland or Hawaii to Samoa has to be US flag.

it’s also pretty strong on seaman’s, ie workers rights.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




KirbyKhan posted:

The shipping lane of Thailand - American Samoa - next US port is forbidden. So in practicality only small boats dedicated to the island grabs poo poo from Asia. Big boat cannot stop by and unload it's far cheaper cargo.

Phone posting: Very disingenuous to claim that I know nothing of the Jones act because I did not type the magical incantation exactly as defined by the good authors at Drydocks Weekly.

nah it’s not.

foreign flag vessels can go Asia -> Us port—> Us port. what they can’t do is load cargo at the first us port to discharge to another us port. they can load at the us port if discharge for the can is back in Asia.

How large do you think the container terminals in Samoa or Saipan or Guam are? what sized vessel do you think can call those terminals?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




KirbyKhan posted:

If you live on a us territory all of your physical objects comes from a monopoly like comcast.

you could be specific about the company. it’s all basically Matson (they own a majority of the stevedore SSA too). and Matson owns a large percentage of the piers they call in the islands.

the reason ships goto these islands is because of the military bases. a large portion of what they are carrying is for those bases. without the bases there probably isn’t a viable case for year round regular service to most of the islands.

Hawaii probably has a case for being better off without the Jones Act.

Guam and Micronesia not so much. there isn’t much reason for a regular service to go there at a reasonable rate unless it’s piggy backing on the military.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




SchnorkIes posted:

It has a case for lower consumer prices during periods of international peace and stability

yes and good point.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




mila kunis posted:

anyone got book recs on the history of modern shipping and international trade?

this museum could give you good recommendations: American Merchant Marine Museum. any of the maritime academy libraries probably could too with a quick call. I mean just knowing the stuff because I’m in the industry is where I got it from.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Stereotype posted:

If you stop at a US port you have to either be a US flagged vessel, which comes with a bunch of requirements about safety and labor, or you have to turn around and go to another country before you go to another US port. Freighters from China, which are rarely US flagged, can't stop in Hawaii and then continue on to California because of this rule. It makes things in island parts of the US more expensive, but also has a number of less obvious but far more important benefits that overall mean it is good.

no no no

foreign flag ships can go straight to the next us port from a previous us port. what they can’t do is carry goods from one us port to the next without going to a foreign port.

a foreign flag container ship can go from Seattle then to LA then to Savannah, and they do this all the time, as long as it doesn’t carry cargo from Seattle to discharge that Seattle cargo in LA or Savannah,

so a foreign flag container ship can stop at Hawaii on its way to LA it just can’t carry cargo loaded at Hawaii to then discharge in LA .

it’s not going to want to goto Hawaii anyway because they’ll want to be on a great circle to minimize the distance they need to travel to reduce fuel costs.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Hawaii is way the hell out of the way, but nobody realizes it because they don’t think about great circles and instead think ships would go in a straight line.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006





lol,

so the lines reduced capacity by laying up smaller ships. the smaller ships did the Asia-> west coast-> east coast -> Europe-> east coast -> west coast -> Asia. think a big ole horseshoe. the biggest ships just go Asia to LA.

so this fucks European supply chains more than us ones by raising the freight from Asia to Europe. long term that gap is real bad for Europe, especially Germany I think.

edit and that’s a huge gap.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




mila kunis posted:

is there ever any possibility of overland trade being cheaper? technically china and germany are connected by land right

ships are so much cheaper than over land.
a very simplified rule of thumb is ship-rail-truck-plane is a jump of 10X in fuel costs. this doesn’t translate directly to freight costs though because markets and door to door has advantages. businesses like dtd and are willing to pay more for it over intermodal. they also in some cases dodge some physical inspections by regulators by being door to door truck.

but that big rail line probably would lessen this.

so I guess it’s really complicated would be a good b way to put it.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Shear Modulus posted:

how much of the fuel cost difference is the actual efficiency gains of moving something in water vs something with friction like a road and how much is that when you're on open ocean you can use lovely polluting bunker fuel that no national government would ever allow burned in its borders

can’t use high sulfur fuel anymore.

IMO has banned it and everything is low sulfur or the vessel has to have scrubbers now.

Real hurthling! posted:

a ship can hold so much more that other issues probably dont factor too much.

yep the economies of scale are huge. I’ve gotten into the specifics before in the D&D climate thread.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




you are closer there than you think...

edit: stereotype

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




mila kunis posted:

imagine having the good parts of the EU (goods and standards) without the bad parts (having ordolib austerity germans controlling your currency and telling you how much of a deficit you can run) and throwing that away lol

it’s even worse.

US companies looking to access Europe and create European subsidiaries could set up in the UK with a work force that was linguistically and culturally similar. Now they’ll set up in Europe because of Brexit. lol

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




lines have pulled / scraped ships and cans. if there is a recovery high container freight is here to stay.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




lol

it occurs to me that the manipulation of social media in politics could be applied to stock markets. I mean this GameStop poo poo seems like it happened organically, I do not in any way think that happened here.

but think about the q-anon stuff and the raid on the capital. that type of social manipulation could be pointed at doing market fuckery.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Ice Phisherman posted:

I'm getting a contact high just from watching this shitshow.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Rated PG-34 posted:

actually the better novel is the sea wolf

Melville’s essays are much better than his novels. Poor man’s porridge, Me and my chimney..

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Xaris posted:

Bartleby the Stockbroker

sell GME

I’d prefer not to.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




is pepsi ok posted:

Computers were a mistake.

I had some very pro analog professors. just loving angry at digital computerized controls. some of these guys were like giants of controls theory too.

I think about this a lot.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




A Bakers Cousin posted:

Guys how do I take ownership of 5000 tons of fertilizer from Taiwan? My contracts didn't sell.

that’s not enough for a full vessel charter. I recommend you acquaint yourself with a representative for a line that specializes in mutipurpose geared vessels with tween decks.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Tiler Kiwi posted:

for real they seem like oddballs in the scheme of things which is reassuring since the scheme of things is a broken evil mess.

the shtick of vanguard was the boring lowest possible cost index fund. Bogle created the idea of the index fund.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




oxsnard posted:

real talk: a proletariat revolution as predicted by marx et al is so far fetched that anyone fantasizing about it is crazy. IMO, all people need is the collective understanding that there is literally no downside to printing more money and money is fake and the only reason they haven't been printing money is that they literally want everyone to suffer.

Once the primary voting issue is "will this candidate print more money than the other candidate" so many other issues can be solved. That's class consciousness in the 21st century

the devaluation of Roman currency was a string contributor to antiquity dissolving into feudalism. Diocletian’s reforms (hereditary guilds) and payment in goods for taxes rather currency occurred because money wasn’t good for poo poo and the Romans had no understanding of inflation.

money is a construction. but that doesn’t mean we can do whatever we want. we also need to take money from very very rich people as policy.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Crossposting from the PYF Twitter thread

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




it’s the same as art.

I wonder if they even do the same thing for collectibles now as art with customs bonded warehouses. Things go into Foreign Trade Zones and then never ever leave again.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Poco posted:

EDIT: sorry, I know this isn't really Doomsday Economics but I've always found collectibles bubbles fascinating.

nah it’s definitely related. I mean ask why does money flow into poo poo like this that it shouldn’t?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Horseshoe theory posted:

All of the art dealer clients I deal with have their goods shipped to the Delaware Freeport so that their clients can choose how to evade definitely legitimately report sales/VAT taxes.

indefinite storage, once they’re in they often never leave again, just transferred between owners all evading taxes. why risk ever transporting the piece ever again?

eventually one of these warehouses is going to have a fire the claims are going to be insane.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Agrajag posted:

anyone know what this means?

whats a black start service?

https://twitter.com/atomicthumbs/status/1361488031081926657?s=20

okay.

I’m just loving coming to grips with the fullness of this.

some operating engineers can’t cold start a plant. I get that. it’s hard. so an engineer that can should always be a phone call away and preferably on site. but I’m crack pinging at totally outsourcing both the knowledge and loving edg needed to cold start.

85% availability what the gently caress. literally nothing other than 100% should be acceptable. the loving backup generator and engineer should be onsite and available 100% of the time.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Raskolnikov38 posted:

name of the warehouse in oakland that burned down a few years ago and killed like 30 people

that’s bad but it’s not an industrial disaster.

this is an industrial disaster:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/08/04/beirut-explosion-ammonium-nitrate/

we used to have those in the 50s and set up international regulations to prevent them. welp too bad we decided regulation is the Devil. I think we are due. not just for the Texas ones we had a few years back. but something Tianjin sized.

I’m saying that having worked 15 years trying to prevent that type of event on the waterfronts in half a dozen places in the US.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




saw it else where but not here. chemical supply chains are hosed, btw. between tariffs, Asian empty crisis, and Texas going dark, lol everything is about to get pricy.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Crazypoops posted:

Okay sure, but why are you running your water out your ceiling fan

pipes are bursting in a lot of places. saw a video of water heaters bursting, they put those in attic spaces in the south FYI.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




SchnorkIes posted:

Dead fish are a huge problem for ships and industrial infrastructure near Houston seasonally at the best of times

yeah crazy poo poo comes out of salt water strainers.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




SKULL.GIF posted:

I'm not sure there's entirely a world of difference between a wooden ceiling and a wooden floor.

ehh ground floor are directly over concrete in the south. the ceiling is only gypsum board.

often the water and sewer piping is in that concrete under the floor.

lol if it leaks. now we have to move all your piping to the attic. hope they didn’t use too much fly ash in your concrete making it a bit more corrosive.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Ice Phisherman posted:

And if it happens all at once it takes years, if not decades to require that knowledge.

This can happen stunningly fast too. The not for profit I used to work for lost over 150 years of experience in a five year period on the West Coast. there are like only fifteen positions on the West Coast too.

One dipshit in middle or upper management can hollow out an organization shockingly fast. And decades is what it takes to get it back.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006





holy lol. I’d imagine all those power plants with outdoor equity have cracked valves too. omg so much industry is going to be just wreaked anything with water in valves outside goddamn. lol claims is going to be busy.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




SchnorkIes posted:

Why the heck didn't they drain those systems after getting power shut off long term

they probably didn’t think about it. there probably wasn’t a plan. they probably assumed power wouldn’t be out long term.

gently caress me if that type of damage is widespread...
I mean there’s the recession.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




“generator” just means thing to power a house when the grid is out to many people

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Paradoxish posted:

yeah, but I don't think most people take that into account when complaining about gas prices

it's a tip of the iceberg kind of thing, but most people are reacting to the scratch on the side of the hull and not the fact that the ship is about to get ripped in half

one of my previous bosses, who literally wrote the book on stability used to say: “nobody expects or drills for capsize”.

the conditions prior to failure are often counter intuitive without knowledge of how the system works. and not specialist knowledge, specialists got lost in the minutiae.

and when the ship will be ripped in half is unknown. we have rough estimations, when the sum of the absolute value of the cumulative hogging and sagging from loading equals the length between perpendiculars for example. but sometimes it just happens. most of the time it’s predictable old ships loading ore too fast. but sometimes it’s not. sometimes it just happens and everybody dies.

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