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Very cool explanation, I'd like to learn some originating once the busy season ends. I'm a top down steam chaser so just watching the screens. I'd like to build some models for intellectual curiosity as well as pricing out pregame combined props, futures, and such.
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Dec 21, 2022 05:40
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TraderStav posted:Very cool explanation, I'd like to learn some originating once the busy season ends. I'm a top down steam chaser so just watching the screens. I'd like to build some models for intellectual curiosity as well as pricing out pregame combined props, futures, and such. The stuff I'm doing now is very basic. The issue I've had is that I know a lot of what I want to do. I just don't have the skillset to implement it in a way that will automate data, so it takes incredibly long to get a flawed product. This all started last year because we decided to do DFS kicker lineups on our stream and I wondered if I could actually predict kicker production for fantasy football. So I got high and needed out with spreadsheets for a few hours. We ended up getting second in a tournament later that season and I decided to expand on it in the offseason. Funny enough, the kicker model this year sucks compared to the new stuff lol. But it also uses a lot less data points, which is why I think it suffers. Got plans to fix that because I think kicker props might be the most exploitable bet in football once I lock it down. Sports books really don't know how to set lines for them.
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Dec 21, 2022 05:47
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Baseball is an absolute crapshoot that is impossible to make money off of
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Dec 21, 2022 19:54
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Is this the general sports gambling thread? It seems to be the general sports gambling thread. I don't know much about sports but I LOVE gambling and it seems that these signup and promo offers are too good to be true. But I did some poking around and they seem to be legit? Who has the best deals and are there any in particular you can recommend to check out/avoid?
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Dec 22, 2022 03:34
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Avian Pneumonia posted:Is this the general sports gambling thread? It seems to be the general sports gambling thread. A lot of em (BetMGM, fanduel, DraftKings, barstool are ones I use) have the $1000 risk free first bet which is a fun way to start your account. I went with a crazy 9:1 parlay on the Super Bowl for my first bet and it actually hit. Then another service I took a regular nfl spread for my first one and it lost. Was able to get back to my starting by hitting well on the free bets. There’s usually another promo for first bets on top of that. Often it’s something that’s basically guaranteed for another hundred or two in free bets. It is a great time to do online sports gambling. All the services are fighting for users so they can be the top dog as new states open up. Fanduel and DraftKings seem to have the better promos (free bets, boosted odds, etc) between the four I use. As far as I know, you don’t really need to enter a promo code signing up to get those things (I didn’t use any). The podcasts, websites, and ads all just have codes so they get referrals. If you feel like giving to a goon instead here are my codes so we both get some free bets. Fanduel (50 each): https://fndl.co/v3685ur DraftKings (up to 150 each based on deposit): https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/thebigjesus/US-TN-SB Nothing for BetMGM or barstool that I can see. Here are my takes on each that I use: Fanduel - they’ll have boosted odds daily on a few promoted things from their content people. $50 max bet on those. Usually decent boosts but worth checking other sites for odds comparisons. DraftKings - the other big one. They give a lot of odds % boosts to specific events but you get to choose the play BetMGM - the promos here for games aren’t great but every now and then they hit you with big ‘double your deposit’ type stuff that seriously owns Barstool - the promos here generally suck but they’re the most different line-wise and seem like the slowest to update on info. I’ve been able to hop on some spreads that have already moved multiple points on all the other sites based on breaking news. Pretty much all the sites have some sort of parlay insurance where you get a portion or all of your (low) stake back in free bets if a leg misses or it doesn’t hit. Their lines will generally all be the same for major stuff like nfl but I bet a decent bet on college football and have found some pretty big differences across the services. The Big Jesus fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Dec 22, 2022 |
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Dec 22, 2022 06:23
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Avian Pneumonia posted:Is this the general sports gambling thread? It seems to be the general sports gambling thread. depends on where you live. states where they just got sportsbetting usually have big promos. any regulated site you should definitely slam for the max. if you lose and get free bets, bet underdogs for the highest EV but i think generally once you get to like +400 you're eating a lot of variance for smaller returns as you go higher. then just keep an eye on them for boosts and other promos. i think you'll stop getting offers if you only ever bet promos but you also dont want to clown off all your money so theres a line to tread.
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Dec 22, 2022 17:59
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DariusLikewise posted:Baseball is an absolute crapshoot that is impossible to make money off of Based on the conversations I've had with other gamblers who are way better at this than me, this seems patently false. But it'll be at least another year before I even look at the sport.
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Dec 22, 2022 18:51
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I made about 40 units on MLB last season, including futures plays. It's not impossible.
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Dec 22, 2022 22:13
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I usually make bets based on “what would make the most people sad?” Right now, the city of Detroit is outrageously hopeful about the Lions. Every Michigander I’ve talked to this week is like, “The Lions are a lock for the playoffs! They’re unstoppable!” Vegas is only giving the Lions 2.5 against the Panthers and Michigan bettors are HAMMERING that line. Sooooo I have a few units on Panthers ML and a cheeky bet on Lions first half/Panthers ML for maximum pain.
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Dec 23, 2022 02:12
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Aggro posted:I usually make bets based on “what would make the most people sad?” I don’t give a poo poo about either team and I am also hammering that line
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Dec 24, 2022 07:53
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Aggro posted:I usually make bets based on “what would make the most people sad?” 
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Dec 25, 2022 02:11
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Bet like a true Lions fan
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Dec 25, 2022 02:13
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This was a rough week down in the gambling lines. But just think of how due I am for a big hit next week?
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Dec 27, 2022 15:58
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Man, I'm bad at phone posting and picture editing (and gambling).
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Dec 27, 2022 16:11
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I threw down the biggest bets I’ve ever placed in the nuggets game after booker went down. Boy if I wasn’t up sweating that at 1AM when my phone died and I was trying to feed the babies
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Dec 27, 2022 20:16
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had pistons +6 last night, they led by 14 with less than 3 minutes left. i did not cash lmao. that's gotta be my worst beat in recent memory
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Dec 27, 2022 22:23
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Anyone got plays for the college football playoff games today?
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Dec 31, 2022 19:20
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WienerDog posted:Anyone got plays for the college football playoff games today? I would take the over on both games, personally. As always, I can't legally put my money where my mouth is, so take that as it is.
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Dec 31, 2022 21:01
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Edward Mass posted:I would take the over on both games, personally. As always, I can't legally put my money where my mouth is, so take that as it is. Rack ‘em
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Jan 1, 2023 05:17
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Guess who had USC -6.5 and money line? 🙋♂️
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Jan 2, 2023 23:26
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I had miss st-3.5 and usc-1.5 win some ya lose some
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Jan 3, 2023 04:07
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G-Hawk posted:I had miss st-3.5 and usc-1.5 Lol I did also have miss st. Switched away after they kicked the field goal then my buddy started messaging like crazy. Unfortunately I had like 4x the money on the USC game.
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Jan 3, 2023 04:25
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Any guides or tips out there to best take advantage of Ohio legalizing sports betting? I could just grab all the signup and deposit bonuses and make opposing bets to cancel each pair out and collect the bonuses, but I'm hoping there's a better and more scientific way.
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Jan 4, 2023 02:50
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Is there any reason why I shouldn’t put my entire bankroll on Vikings -5.5? Nathan peterman is 1-10 in his career with 3 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The Vikings are playing for playoff seeding. The Bears are playing for draft seeding. What am I missing? How do the Vikings fail to cover?
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Jan 7, 2023 04:41
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Aggro posted:Is there any reason why I shouldn’t put my entire bankroll on Vikings -5.5? I think they’ll cover, and will probably put a little bit on -18.5. If they get close to winning by that much I could see them pushing to get rid of the ‘negative point differential’ poo poo they’ve been hearing forever. Also all the bears DBs are ded. Also, week 18 so some QBs are gonna try to get their guys paid. https://thedraftnetwork.com/nfl-week-18-player-incentives-2023/ Particularly like the jags plays (Christian Kirk’s prop is currently set at 58). Unfortunately with the game vs the titans being for a playoff spot those might be tougher to hit. With Kirk, engram, and zay all close maybe the move is just to go with tlaw. I might play all four, but already loaded up on Kirk. The Big Jesus fucked around with this message at 07:33 on Jan 7, 2023 |
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Jan 7, 2023 07:30
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Aggro posted:Is there any reason why I shouldn’t put my entire bankroll on Vikings -5.5? This like was stupid. The Vikings had something to play for, but I think the logic is they knew Cousins and JJ weren't gonna play the whole game.
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Jan 8, 2023 23:57
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I ended up only putting $250 on the game but every fiber of my being said to go bigger. Oh well, I’m about to lose half of my winnings because Dak Prescott is fuckin’ trash.
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Jan 9, 2023 00:04
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Aggro posted:I ended up only putting $250 on the game but every fiber of my being said to go bigger. Made $450 on the regular spread. Lost $50 on my -18.5 +430 call. Woulda hit if the bears didn’t challenge that halftime kick (or if the Vikings didn’t run that stupid play). E: John collins overs have been good since capela went out. Books haven’t seemed to adjust yet. Got him o15.5 -105 tonight, which would’ve hit in 5 of the 6 games Clint has missed so far.
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Jan 9, 2023 00:24
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Jags game was a wild ride. Threw some more on them at +400 and hit most of my props so a good day. Wish Staley would’ve run the ball a bit more though then I would’ve gone nuclear.
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Jan 15, 2023 06:09
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 Maybe the first time that I’ve had a half-assed drunken bet with long odds and had it pay off. Aggro fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 16:18
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The other side: https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1614603901021437954
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Jan 15, 2023 17:31
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This is just bad process.
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Jan 16, 2023 16:45
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Aggro fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Jan 18, 2023 |
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Jan 18, 2023 05:25
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NFL playoffs have arrived and with it my gambling time. Here's my bets which are bad and you should not copy me assuming I am in any way smart. $20 - AJ Brown +700 first TD scorer (former Titans homer pick) $20 - Cincinnati Bengals Lowest Scoring Team on divisional weekend +400 (I did "research") $10 - SGP Mahomes anytime TD scorer, Kelce over 94.5 yards +950 (Mahomes BS plus TEs should be able to pile it on against JAX)
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Jan 19, 2023 20:55
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I’ve gone with the over in Jags Chiefs and a teaser of KC -2.5, SF +2.5 -114 E: any of y’all do underdog fantasy? Really enjoyed best ball drafting for the season and playoffs. Went hard on the cowboys for playoffs and advanced out of a lot of my groups. The Big Jesus fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 01:28
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I don’t know anything about betting sports, but Boston Scott is +400 as an anytime TD scorer for this upcoming Eagles/Giants matchup. Boston Scott has *never* NOT scored a TD against the giants. He has 10 TDs in 8 career games vs the giants. I’m just sayin.
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Jan 20, 2023 05:14
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I want it to be known here that if I am unable to make wagers on the Pro Bowl skills competition that it will be one of the greatest crimes against humanity.
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Jan 20, 2023 07:08
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Sataere posted:I want it to be known here that if I am unable to make wagers on the Pro Bowl skills competition that it will be one of the greatest crimes against humanity. Lol I’d love to throw money at some first year thing like that, since Vegas would just have to kinda guess at the lines (which is probably why they wouldn’t have anything that wasn’t heavily juiced the first year)
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Jan 20, 2023 11:15
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The Big Jesus posted:Lol I’d love to throw money at some first year thing like that, since Vegas would just have to kinda guess at the lines (which is probably why they wouldn’t have anything that wasn’t heavily juiced the first year) It would literally be burning money, but I'd still do it
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Jan 20, 2023 16:28
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Elysium posted:I don’t know anything about betting sports, but Boston Scott is +400 as an anytime TD scorer for this upcoming Eagles/Giants matchup. Thank you for this. Got in at +370.
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Jan 22, 2023 03:17
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