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Elysium posted:I don’t know anything about betting sports, but Boston Scott is +400 as an anytime TD scorer for this upcoming Eagles/Giants matchup. So do sportsbooks often pay out 4 to 1 on things that literally happen 100% of the time? How are you all spending your winnings? YOUR UNCOOL NIECE posted:Thank you for this. Got in at +370. 
Elysium fucked around with this message at 03:27 on Jan 22, 2023 |
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Jan 22, 2023 03:21
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Yeah I only put $5 on it but it's looking to be my only winner this weekend lol
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Jan 22, 2023 03:36
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Elysium posted:So do sportsbooks often pay out 4 to 1 on things that literally happen 100% of the time? How are you all spending your winnings? Sample size. But 4:1 was probably way out of market unless the market thought it would have been a tighter and lower scoring game.
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Jan 22, 2023 17:10
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Maher shanking the poo poo out of the ball in warm ups. https://twitter.com/timkawakami/status/1617288104062390275?s=46&t=OU7t82qiCI2ZduWlJFtnSg Bet cowboys to attempt a 2PC at -125 on fanduel. Also either team to score a 2PC at +240 on barstool. Its better value if you assume 50% conversion rate and also if score diff gets fucky from a missed xp the niners may attempt some. Also niners spread and the under.
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Jan 23, 2023 00:07
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Thank you Brett Maher for letting me hit the Under last week and Niners -6.5 this week. I need to figure out where to send a gift basket.
Aggro fucked around with this message at 04:54 on Jan 23, 2023 |
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Jan 23, 2023 04:26
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Disappointed in the 2PC bets but the niners and under more than covered for it
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Jan 23, 2023 04:52
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Fun bet if you're into futures bets. Will Levis as the first pick in the NFL at +1000 on FanDuel is a really good price. Will Levis is probably going to have the best athletic profile of the top three quarterbacks. With Bryce Young weighing 90 lbs and people being down on Stroud, Levis is a great value at that price.
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Jan 24, 2023 05:45
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I've already seen mock drafts with Levis at number 1 so that doesn't seem too far out there
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Jan 24, 2023 15:54
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I'm not seeing the NFL Draft on FanDuel, curious if you meant another book?
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Jan 24, 2023 17:04
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Is the assumption that the Bears would trade away the #1 pick and someone else takes a QB?
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Jan 24, 2023 17:26
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Aggro posted:Is the assumption that the Bears would trade away the #1 pick and someone else takes a QB? Yeah its leaning on two nested assumptions. 1. The Bears trade down for some team desperate for a QB, this in my opinion is extremely likely to happen. 2. That Bryce Young falls on draft boards, this one slightly less likely but there are some interesting signs and yeah I put a .25 unit flyer on it at +800 at Caesars.
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Jan 24, 2023 18:26
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Nybble posted:I'm not seeing the NFL Draft on FanDuel, curious if you meant another book? It’s there. Only bet available right now is the number 1 pick. NFL-> more -> on the right is the draft.
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Jan 24, 2023 19:05
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LionYeti posted:Yeah its leaning on two nested assumptions. 1. The Bears trade down for some team desperate for a QB, this in my opinion is extremely likely to happen. 2. That Bryce Young falls on draft boards, this one slightly less likely but there are some interesting signs and yeah I put a .25 unit flyer on it at +800 at Caesars. I feel like this is ripe for my long threatened "oh first bet is risk free up to a grand?" long odds wager at a new book. Always figured it'd be a silly parlay, but I'd take a flyer on first pick bet, ha.
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Jan 24, 2023 19:28
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Nybble posted:I'm not seeing the NFL Draft on FanDuel, curious if you meant another book? Some states don't have all markets.
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Jan 24, 2023 19:40
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esperantinc posted:I feel like this is ripe for my long threatened "oh first bet is risk free up to a grand?" long odds wager at a new book. Always figured it'd be a silly parlay, but I'd take a flyer on first pick bet, ha. That’s how it all started for me lol. Now I’m playing with house money. 
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Jan 24, 2023 19:59
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TraderStav posted:Some states don't have all markets. Yeah, it must not be available for me in Virginia
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Jan 24, 2023 20:17
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Nybble posted:Yeah, it must not be available for me in Virginia Yep, Virginia's sports betting law only allows betting on sporting events (like games/matches), and not the draft. (And not anything not sports, like elections or whatever.) They also don't allow proposition bets on college sports or any bets at all on in-state college sports.
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Jan 24, 2023 22:36
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Aggro posted:Is the assumption that the Bears would trade away the #1 pick and someone else takes a QB? As a Bears fan, if they actually pick at number one, I will be furious. I personally think that this draft is gonna see three quarterbacks taken in the top five. You can make a strong case that 8 of the top 10 teams need a quarterback. I also think Stroud, Levis, and Young are gonna just get more and more buzz as the draft season goes on. Especially with what a big wet fart last years class was. If I could find a bet that Young won't be the first overall pick, I'd smash it right now. Young should be the first guy to go, but I think his weight might scare some teams off.
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Jan 25, 2023 00:05
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I like the Chiefs at anything above even money. Probably going to bet some props and play that pickem game at the Westgate in Las Vegas.
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Feb 5, 2023 22:27
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Lote posted:I like the Chiefs at anything above even money. Probably going to bet some props and play that pickem game at the Westgate in Las Vegas. Mahomes MVP is probably your best bet if you wanna play chiefs. Oh also JJJ steals+blocks in home games has been printing money for me.
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Feb 6, 2023 19:56
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Honestly yeah I would probably put more on Hurts or Maholmes MVP over the money line for either team.
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Feb 6, 2023 20:18
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The Super Bowl prop that I’m loving is “Total Number of Players to Attempt a Pass” at over 2.5 for +140 Any injury to Mahomes or Hurts gets it, or any Philly special, or a fake punt or field goal. Seems like a solid bet. Total players to complete a pass is o2.5 +190. Total players to throw for a touchdown is o2.5 +700. Aggro fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Feb 6, 2023 |
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Feb 6, 2023 21:50
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Aggro posted:The Super Bowl prop that I’m loving is “Total Number of Players to Attempt a Pass” at over 2.5 for +140 I like that one. Where are you seeing it? Only bets I have so far are a $50 KC SB future at +1000 and $110 on KC +2.5 -110 I picked up early when the lines were bouncing around. Need to get some more action, maybe eagles players overs or TDs as a hedge. I’m looking for a new service to do some stupid big risk free bet so I can fail to relive the magic of last year.
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Feb 6, 2023 22:24
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The Big Jesus posted:Oh also JJJ steals+blocks in home games has been printing money for me. 4 blocks and 2 steals in the first seven minutes lmao 
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Feb 8, 2023 03:01
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Oh also this if anybody sees. Still like 230 https://twitter.com/croucherjd/status/1623111246089453568?s=46&t=i7DB_tsHr38z_zyEkESMOw
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Feb 8, 2023 03:11
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The Big Jesus posted:Oh also this if anybody sees. Still like 230 He hit it with 10 seconds left in the third. And then only got 2 more points in the fourth
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Feb 8, 2023 06:49
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Funny enough third quarter had a way better return.
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Feb 8, 2023 15:31
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Sataere posted:Funny enough third quarter had a way better return. Yeah lowest odds were like +1xx 1Q (next game) since I’m guessing that about where his average gets you. Then +2xx for second quarter next game or 4q this one. Third quarter he either had to go nuclear (welp) or some goofy stuff had to happen to get it to 3Q next game. Was feeling good about it when he had 20 at the half. Was feeling good when he needed 6 more and was sitting on the bench with three minutes left in the third. Oh well, can’t hit em all. I got my stake back by hitting a fanduel boosted lebron 30+ pts. Back to JJJ stonks for me.
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Feb 8, 2023 17:44
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I found what I think is a good one in betMGM after the KD trade. East to win champ is -120, west is -105. However, ‘new team’ to win the championship is +150. This includes the four highest odds teams out of the west: suns (2nd best odds) nugs (4th), grizz(7th), clippers(6th) (also pellies and twolves). You basically get the whole west side except the warriors, kings, and Mavs. Then you can hedge against whoever wins the East in the finals if you so desire.
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Feb 9, 2023 08:54
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The Big Jesus posted:I found what I think is a good one in betMGM after the KD trade. East to win champ is -120, west is -105. However, ‘new team’ to win the championship is +150. This includes the four highest odds teams out of the west: suns (2nd best odds) nugs (4th), grizz(7th), clippers(6th) (also pellies and twolves). You basically get the whole west side except the warriors, kings, and Mavs. Then you can hedge against whoever wins the East in the finals if you so desire. This got pulled pretty quickly. Still exists on DraftKings but it’s +110. They also have the East to win at +105, so I’m going to keep my eye on that and see if it moves up more to just hedge out, otherwise it’d wait for the finals. JJJ Stonks stay printing.
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Feb 11, 2023 04:30
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What do you think the correct odds to get for those teams are? Seems like a lot of them are just fluff since you can ignore any team that isn't going to be top 3 by season's end. I haven't tracked anything so this is me just trying to blindly work through it, but it seems like the bookmaker is arguing that the Mavericks are good enough to maybe beat out the Suns for a top 3 seeding and/or the Suns imploding somehow (or I guess account for KD or CP3 getting injured in the playoffs). So they're just offering the Western conference where sometimes the suns are #3 and sometimes the mavs are #3 while also including that the East seems stronger in general this season. Seems like would have gotten bets even at +125/+120 It's late, so thanks for listening to my terrible betting analysis.
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Feb 11, 2023 11:30
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This feels like so much of a trap bet but the possibility for both teams to hit a TD and field goal in each half must be better than 6.25%? in for a couple of units anyway 
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Feb 11, 2023 12:40
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Strong Sauce posted:What do you think the correct odds to get for those teams are? Seems like a lot of them are just fluff since you can ignore any team that isn't going to be top 3 by season's end. Not sure what you’re asking but maybe it can be answered with the championship odds. Mavs aren’t high up there. 
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Feb 11, 2023 19:34
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Alright here's my slate of bad SB bets: $3 - Jerick Mckinnon Anytime TD Scorer +175 $5 - Jerick Mckinnon First TD Scorer +1100 $5 - Chiefs ML, Mahomes 275+ passing yards, Travis Kelce 75+ rec yards +350 $10 - Eagles ML, K. Gainwell 20+ alt rushing yards, T. Kelce Anytime TD Scorer +540 $10 - Correct Score Eagles 24:Chiefs 27 +5000 $4 - Red/Pink Gatorade Color +450 $1 - Will there be scorigami? YES +2000 $5 (free bet) - K. Gainwell anytime TD scorer, 6+ total sacks +950
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Feb 12, 2023 21:01
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tangy yet delightful posted:Alright here's my slate of bad SB bets: Man, in this house we root for it, but no way we get Scorigami tonight I like that exact score bet though
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Feb 12, 2023 21:05
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$500 on u160.5 (-115) combined jersey numbers of TD scorers
TraderStav fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Feb 12, 2023 |
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Feb 12, 2023 21:08
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This year has really turned me into a boring bettor. I just took the KC ML and the under. Also two insane 9 way parlays with no chance of hitting, but all the real money is on the outcome.
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Feb 12, 2023 21:54
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I’ve got like 20 props placed but I’m mostly on KC. My Big Dumb Insured Bet of the Year is this though.  My tiny insured bet is a longer shot but the first leg is the big one. 
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Feb 12, 2023 21:54
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The Big Jesus posted:I’ve got like 20 props placed but I’m mostly on KC. My Big Dumb Insured Bet of the Year is this though. If I hadn't already put all my bets in, I would 100% place that last one because it just looks like stupid fun
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Feb 12, 2023 21:56
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This is my “I have no idea what I’m doing” parlay:
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Feb 12, 2023 21:59
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