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I try and go 50/25/25 with predictit personally. Half in pretty sure things that I’m still making like 10% returns on because people are insane, 25% in reasonably sure things with some risk that I think are under/overpriced relative to the risk, and 25% stuff that’s more close to genuinely gambling. A good way to think is identifying the things that people are insane about and are betting their hearts rather than heads on. Trump supporters, obviously. Yang people too, and I made some money off of Bernie dead-Enders after the primary was all but over as well.
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Jan 14, 2021 23:57
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| # ? Apr 23, 2024 20:16 |
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Aruan posted:https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29#comment-5227623544 There'll be a disproportionate spike in those buckets every time a republican announces they're voting for it, but ultimately imo it'll be an all or nothing proposition either they'll do it and pick the 17 least vulnerable to put their stamp on it or it'll be Romney screaming into the void again. But yeah in that case 51 is a steal at .10 because Romney is a stone cold lock. not unlikely comedy option, no goes to the moon in all buckets when the vote is scheduled for 5/1/21
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Jan 15, 2021 00:43
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Aruan posted:https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29#comment-5227623544 shame on an IGA posted:There'll be a disproportionate spike in those buckets every time a republican announces they're voting for it, but ultimately imo it'll be an all or nothing proposition either they'll do it and pick the 17 least vulnerable to put their stamp on it or it'll be Romney screaming into the void again.
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Jan 15, 2021 01:02
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Pretty sure Murkowski said she would convict
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Jan 15, 2021 01:09
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I think its a good market to just play the news. I threw $40 into the mid-markets to get a nice cheap buy in and then when they spike for 2 hours can bail out.
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Jan 15, 2021 01:14
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Strong Sauce posted:also: https://twitter.com/TaylorLorenz/status/1349539337973727233 "artists" is a pretty big stretch
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Jan 15, 2021 05:51
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Getting a little bit leery on the balance of power market. Still don't feel like they will swear anyone in inauguration day, butttttttt the market is starting to feel fairly priced now.
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Jan 15, 2021 21:06
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Isn't D House R Senate impossible under the rules? Isn't #1 "no" basically free money as either it's actually "no" (D/D) and you win outright at a currently good price, or it's 50 R 49 D until they swear in, which resolves all markets to "no" (this is why i play with fun money on this site, its rules are confusing) In the event that neither party has 51 or more sitting Senators at that time, then neither party has Senate control as defined in the Rules, and all contracts will resolve as No. The republicans may maintain a majority until 2/21 or 2/22 but not by this market's rules. bus hustler fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Jan 15, 2021 |
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Jan 15, 2021 21:59
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It's 51R-48D until they swear in, Purdue's term ended on jan. 3 but Loeffler's did not.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:01
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shame on an IGA posted:It's 51R-48D until they swear in, Purdue's term ended on jan. 3 but Loeffler's did not. Ahh I see yeah I dont play with a lot of money here 
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Jan 15, 2021 22:02
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comedy option: Loefflers term ends backdated to the day after the election at the moment the senate recieves certification and swearing ins don't happen on the 20th, per precedent established in the case of Strom Thurmond's in late 1956, the count is 50-48 at resolution time, and the kiwis who run the site care about any of this
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Jan 15, 2021 22:08
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shame on an IGA posted:comedy option: Loefflers term ends backdated to the day after the election at the moment the senate recieves certification and swearing ins don't happen on the 20th, per precedent established in the case of Strom Thurmond's in late 1956, the count is 50-48 at resolution time, and the kiwis who run the site care about any of this Definitely ok with this one, since all contracts resolve "no" then, and I'm like 90% in the D/D no market.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:16
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but seriously check out Senate publication 98-29, they're adamant that special election losers don't get paid for anything after election day I'm also in D/D no and kinda tempted to load up on DR no as well
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Jan 15, 2021 22:17
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shame on an IGA posted:but seriously check out Senate publication 98-29, they're adamant that special election losers don't get paid for anything after election day Hmmm I think not getting paid doesn't mean she doesn't have a seat, she did actually vote last week.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:26
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Are people who are on DD no and DR yes going to just hold it till it pays out or is there a point you'll just sell?
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Jan 15, 2021 23:20
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e: nvm
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Jan 16, 2021 00:00
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I jumped off. made a really nice $1700 gain. I think things are too up in the air now.
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Jan 16, 2021 04:02
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How many people are active on PredictIT? I just discovered the service and I have to say it almost seems too good to be true. Do we think this is going to last? I'm honestly a little shocked because there's nothing stopping me from putting a large volume down on events that are nearly sure to occur.
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Jan 17, 2021 03:57
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Just going through an example here to make sure I'm understanding this correctly, Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1? This is currently trading at .88c Yes. If I bought a thousand shares that'd cost me $880. If I hold onto it until the market closes I'll make $220. PredictIT will take 10% of that leaving me with $198. If I withdrawal these funds I have to pay 5% and I'm left with $188.10 in profit.
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Jan 17, 2021 04:09
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Gabriel S. posted:How many people are active on PredictIT? I just discovered the service and I have to say it almost seems too good to be true. Do we think this is going to last? I'm honestly a little shocked because there's nothing stopping me from putting a large volume down on events that are nearly sure to occur. It's been around since 2014 and is supposed to have around 200000 users. I'd be just as cautious about "putting a large volume down on events that are nearly sure to occur" as you'd put a large volume down on events that are nearly sure to occur ANYWHERE, because nearly sure to occur is still 'slight chance of not occuring.' Generally how people gamble on predictit is more and looking for stuff that they think is undervalued. Gabriel S. posted:Just going through an example here to make sure I'm understanding this correctly, So in this case, trading at 88 cents is basically betting that Merrick Garland won't suddenly die or there won't be any really big delays in the confirmation process so of course holding it until the market closes only makes you $220 if he doesn't die or there isn't a bizarre delay in the confirmation process. That's... probably not actually something that has a 12% chance of happening but it's still something to keep in mind. (Also there's an $800 limit per user within a given bet so you couldn't actually but 1000 shares.) For arguments sake you do buy 1000 though. Predictit takes 10% leaving you with $198. Withdrawing that and your original deposit is 1078, and when you withdraw that they take 5% of the total, including your original deposit, leaving you with $1024.1 for a profit instead of $144.10. (You can of course instead re-bet that money to try and have more returns before the eventual 5% withdrawal fee, but that's more opportunities to lose it as well.) It's still absolutely possible to make money on predictit, some of it even in Guaranteed Returns, but it's not quite as easy as you seem to be thinking right now.
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Jan 17, 2021 04:32
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You really don't want to be popping it in and out of the site and paying that withdrawal fee everytime. You do get points on your cc for depositing though, use that 2% cash back card! I deposited back in that 2014 timeframe and have just built it up over the years. The site isnt going away anytime soon, it seems pretty well regulated.
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Jan 17, 2021 04:47
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reignonyourparade posted:It's been around since 2014 and is supposed to have around 200000 users. I'd be just as cautious about "putting a large volume down on events that are nearly sure to occur" as you'd put a large volume down on events that are nearly sure to occur ANYWHERE, because nearly sure to occur is still 'slight chance of not occuring.' Generally how people gamble on predictit is more and looking for stuff that they think is undervalued. Makes sense but it sounds like they really need to advertise a hell of a lot more but it seems a strategy of putting bets on likely events would also earn profit. Just not much. reignonyourparade posted:So in this case, trading at 88 cents is basically betting that Merrick Garland won't suddenly die or there won't be any really big delays in the confirmation process so of course holding it until the market closes only makes you $220 if he doesn't die or there isn't a bizarre delay in the confirmation process. That's... probably not actually something that has a 12% chance of happening but it's still something to keep in mind. (Also there's an $800 limit per user within a given bet so you couldn't actually but 1000 shares.) For arguments sake you do buy 1000 though. Predictit takes 10% leaving you with $198. Withdrawing that and your original deposit is 1078, and when you withdraw that they take 5% of the total, including your original deposit, leaving you with $1024.1 for a profit instead of $144.10. (You can of course instead re-bet that money to try and have more returns before the eventual 5% withdrawal fee, but that's more opportunities to lose it as well.) I'm seeing $850 for max per contract? But outside of that are their any other limits?
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Jan 17, 2021 04:53
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Baddog posted:You really don't want to be popping it in and out of the site and paying that withdrawal fee everytime. You do get points on your cc for depositing though, use that 2% cash back card! Is it still growing? The pessimistic part of me says all the fish probably lost of a lot of money this year and won't be playing.
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Jan 17, 2021 04:55
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Gabriel S. posted:Is it still growing? The pessimistic part of me says all the fish probably lost of a lot of money this year and won't be playing. Always seems to be more fish!
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Jan 17, 2021 04:58
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Gabriel S. posted:I'm seeing $850 for max per contract? But outside of that are their any other limits? Yeah my bad. I play with small amounts so it's not something that I keep exact track of. The other limit is that there's a limited amount of users involved in each contract. which can produce some WEIRD results in really unbalanced bets. Gabriel S. posted:Is it still growing? The pessimistic part of me says all the fish probably lost of a lot of money this year and won't be playing. There are STILL people buying pro trump stuff that has factually already not happened, like winning the popular vote by 10%, or trump beating the polls by 8%. The fish might have lost a lot of money this year but there's clearly a number of them that are still playing.
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Jan 17, 2021 05:14
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God. Why didn't I learn about PredictIT before November? I would have made a killing. FUckkkkkk. 
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Jan 17, 2021 05:15
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Gabriel S. posted:Makes sense but it sounds like they really need to advertise a hell of a lot more but it seems a strategy of putting bets on likely events would also earn profit. Just not much. Limit on traders in a contract. For some of the big long contracts (i.e. Presidential stuff) you want to buy at least 1 share or you get locked out. The reason that specific market isnt higher is because uncertainty around impeachment - the trial could take up a bunch of time and delay confirmation. Or maybe something comes out about Garland that sinks his candidacy. Probably a fairer price is like 94/6, but its not a 100% guaranteed event.
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Jan 17, 2021 05:18
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Aruan posted:Limit on traders in a contract. For some of the big long contracts (i.e. Presidential stuff) you want to buy at least 1 share or you get locked out. Not following you here, may you expand upon this in more detail? Aruan posted:The reason that specific market isnt higher is because uncertainty around impeachment - the trial could take up a bunch of time and delay confirmation. Or maybe something comes out about Garland that sinks his candidacy. Probably a fairer price is like 94/6, but its not a 100% guaranteed event. I totally get that maybe Garland could suddenly get COVID-19, A Brain Tumor and Food Poisoning but I'm betting against that happening. Edit - I made this quick calculator in Excel, let me know if these numbers look right. You'd have to buy YES Shares at .95 to just break even. 
Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 06:42 on Jan 17, 2021 |
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Jan 17, 2021 06:07
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Gabriel S. posted:God. Site went down at the most important time. I was set up to actually kill it on election night by buying low D when the returns were coming in heavy R, since everyone looking at a precinct map knew a swing was coming the other way, but the entire site went down in the middle of the night and you couldn't trade until the swing already happened. I was so passed. I still basically doubled up by investing in states Trump was clearly gonna lose before MAGAs figured it out, but still.
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Jan 17, 2021 11:05
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Yes see my earlier post about grinding out returns in settled markets etc. If unemployed someone serious could easily grind out a living on the site. The thing is markets move way more in real time because of the lower volume, and unlike stocks or sports, you can often legitimately get information before it is priced into the market. And there are fish on both sides, so it never entirely runs dry. I still think the "who controls the senate" market is undervalued, poo poo it actually dropped in price even though it's looking like they aren't even going to try and seat Warnock & Ossoff on 1/20. Not getting into the political specifics but currently "D House R Senate" is the default position if any number of things happen like a sudden resignation, vote to expel, assassination or death, anything. bus hustler fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Jan 17, 2021 |
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Jan 17, 2021 16:24
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Perdue's term expired on the 3rd and his seat is vacant. Loeffler counts as an R seat as does Pence under the rules. What needs to happen for the market to resolve with D control of the Senate is Kamala Harris must resign, be sworn in as VP, then swear in two of Padilla, Ossoff, and Warnock before midnight on the 20th. So the bet is really about "does GA certify quickly" and "are they prepared to do a big photo op swearing in on the 20th." There was a Bloomberg article that said they plan to swear Padilla in immediately after Kamala is sworn in as VP, which strongly suggests that Ossoff and Warnock will be sworn in at that same time if certification is done. Tuesday is going to be a wild ride regardless.
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Jan 17, 2021 17:40
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Gabriel S. posted:Not following you here, may you expand upon this in more detail? only 5000 people can participate in any market. some markets have big disparities because new purchasers are locked out and the people who are remaining in the market are diehards.
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Jan 17, 2021 18:03
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aruans predictit prediction: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 all of the 50 ranges are underpriced and will swing wildly day to day during impeachment letting you buy in and book a quick profit.
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Jan 17, 2021 18:03
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bus hustler posted:Yes see my earlier post about grinding out returns in settled markets etc. If unemployed someone serious could easily grind out a living on the site. drat. This feels way too good to be true. I majored in political science, volunteered, etc. so this looks like a goldmine. Granted, with a bit of effort.
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Jan 17, 2021 19:11
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Aruan posted:aruans predictit prediction: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 What's the the theory here, buy "53 or 54" or "55 or 56" at .15 then sell at something like .50c? Edit - Thinking about this market. The Senate is split 50/50. Harris as VP counts as one vote. Romney, Sasse, Murkowski and Toomey are all easy Yes votes. McConnell and Collins are soft yes votes. That's a 55-57 spread. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Jan 17, 2021 |
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Jan 17, 2021 19:28
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Here's a few things I'm watching and my thought process. I might be way off base and completely nuts so feel free to let me know or just watch me lose all my money! Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? - I have a extremely hard time seeing Andrew Yang winning the race to be NYC Mayor. It feels like folks are just buying into his Online Persona and support of UBI hype. Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom - I'm thinking they'll have enough by March 17. They're already at ~500k and there are still plenty of crazy Republicans even in California that'll try to remove the governor.
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Jan 17, 2021 19:42
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Fritz the Horse posted:Perdue's term expired on the 3rd and his seat is vacant. Loeffler counts as an R seat as does Pence under the rules. Georgia is not certifying until Tuesday at the earliest, it's unlikely but not impossible for the Republicans in Georgia to do it first thing in the morning & send it on a same day flight. All counties in GA are done but it seems likely that anything will conspire to make it Wednesday.
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Jan 17, 2021 19:54
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I don't know much about PredicIt but holy poo poo wait til you can live bet as the results are being counted. You can get amazing lines on whatever side you think is a favorite. The market swings wildly as they tally up the votes, you can get an amazing price if a Dem candidate is losing before big city votes come in or vice versa when Republican candidate gets a huge rural turn out.
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Jan 17, 2021 21:08
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atarirob posted:I don't know much about PredicIt but holy poo poo wait til you can live bet as the results are being counted. You can get amazing lines on whatever side you think is a favorite. The market swings wildly as they tally up the votes, you can get an amazing price if a Dem candidate is losing before big city votes come in or vice versa when Republican candidate gets a huge rural turn out. What do you mean by lines? Or what's a good example of how you are betting when pricing changes? Edit - Maybe a related question or how do I interrupt the graphic below? Is buy yes the amount of offers for "Yes" shares at that price? 
Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Jan 17, 2021 |
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Jan 17, 2021 21:37
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| # ? Apr 23, 2024 20:16 |
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Few points: Pretty sure it's only 5000 people in any given bracket--if there are multiple brackets in a market I believe each is independent of the others. Usually they run pretty close though. You can buy "No" in multiple brackets and it'll automagically give you money up front! This represents the offset risk. Be careful though, because you can get trapped in a market if you buy multiple brackets on "No" See here:  To liquidate any of these bets, it would actually cost money to pull out the shares. However, leaving them in place will allow for the full payout. Unfortunately for me, this will likely take months as it's waiting for federal certification (typically done in Q3ish). Safe bet, but frozen cash. So in short, be careful of stacking "No"s--they're great ways to double up on your bet and get extra cash immediately, but they'll also lock your position in place.
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Jan 17, 2021 22:17
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